川普攪動「台灣獨立」水域：4件需要知道的事
川普攪動「台灣獨立」水域：4件需要知道的事
美國總統訪中後的辯論，凸顯「敏感詞彙」的多種解讀
- 「台灣獨立」究竟是什麼意思？
- 賴清德在獨立議題上的立場？
- 國民黨怎麼說？
- 這對台灣政治前景有何影響？
美國總統唐納德·川普與台灣總統賴清德：川普最近表示，美國「不希望有人說『我們要獨立』」。（日經 montage / 路透社與 Sae Kamae 提供照片）
THOMPSON CHAU 2026年5月30日 19:00 JST 台灣高雄 —— 美國總統唐納德·川普在5月中旬訪問中國時，外界關注的重點之一，是他是否會說華盛頓「反對台灣獨立」，打破以往「不支持台灣獨立」的標準說法。
訪中結束後，川普堅稱他沒有對中國領導人習近平做出任何關於台灣的「承諾」。但他確實對記者表示：「我們不希望有人說『讓我們獨立，因為美國會支持我們』。」
數天後，台灣總統賴清德重申其立場：「中華民國台灣是一個主權獨立的國家。」
那麼究竟是哪一種？在台灣脈絡下，「獨立」到底是什麼意思？為什麼這個議題會加劇賴清德領導的執政黨民進黨與在野黨國民黨（其主席即將訪美）之間的政治戰？
以下是4件需要知道的事。
「台灣獨立」究竟是什麼意思？ 「台灣獨立」一般被理解為：廢除現行中華民國憲法，正式（de jure）宣布成立一個主權獨立的「台灣共和國」。根據台灣最高研究機構中央研究院助理研究教授陳玉潔的說法，台灣總統沒有權力單方面做到這一點，必須獲得立法院四分之三席次支持，並在公投中獲得半數以上合格選民同意。
這與現狀有根本上的不同。目前台灣是以「中華民國」之名運作的民主政體，有人稱之為事實獨立（de facto independence）。
中國則希望改變現狀，迫使台灣接受其領土主張——近年來這一野心伴隨著大規模軍事擴張。任何反對北京對台灣擁有主權主張、或僅僅支持維持現狀的人，都被北京貼上「台獨」或危險「分裂分子」的標籤。
高雄市議員張博洋總結現況：「現狀對台灣來說，已經是從北京獨立，以中華民國的形式存在。我們並不隸屬於中華人民共和國，這是事實。」
曾隸屬小型政黨台灣基進的張博洋指出，中國共產黨從未統治過台灣。
1949年蔣介石與其國民黨軍隊在內戰中敗給共產黨後撤退到台灣，他們以中華民國名義實施戒嚴近40年。之後台灣轉型民主，建立了自己的選舉制度，同時維持軍隊、憲法及其他象徵「台灣並未被中國吞併」的元素，張博洋說。
賴清德在獨立議題上的立場？ 與其民進黨前任蔡英文一樣，賴清德優先守護現狀，並抵抗北京侵蝕台灣安全與國際空間的企圖。他至今沒有任何跡象顯示考慮正式宣布獨立。
在川普發言後，賴清德在臉書寫道：「我多次公開表示，作為台海與區域負責任的一方，台灣不會挑釁或升高衝突，但也絕不會在壓力下放棄國家主權與尊嚴，以及民主自由的生活方式。」
「台灣一向是台海現狀的堅定維護者，而非改變現狀的一方，」賴清德說，並強調「不存在『台灣獨立』問題」。
日本資深政治學者小笠原欣幸最近在文章中指出，民進黨在1990年代初期確實主張「台灣共和國」，但到1999年已轉向接受現狀，並將「獨立」理念「封存」。
國立清華大學名譽講座教授小笠原認為，不理解這一點容易落入北京的敘事陷阱。他表示，中國用「反對台獨」來掩蓋其「推動統一」的意圖，如果川普附和習近平的這一說法，「可能危及當前台海現狀」。
國民黨怎麼說？ 主要在野黨國民黨及其主席鄭麗文堅持「九二共識」——即台灣屬於一個更大中國的爭議性主張。他們尋求與北京建立更緊密關係，並強烈反對「台灣獨立」一詞。
鄭麗文指責賴清德帶領台灣走向「獨裁台獨」。她在3月台灣外籍記者協會活動中強調：「兩岸和平交流的唯一政治基礎，就是九二共識與反對台獨，沒有其他。」
這也是她4月赴北京會見習近平時的核心訴求。在川普訪中前，她也公開敦促川普反對台灣獨立。下週她啟程訪美時，很可能會傳達相同的訊息。
這對台灣政治前景有何影響？ 國民黨的策略在今年11月的縣市長選舉（地方議題與人脈遠比國際關係重要）以及2028年1月的總統大選中能否奏效，仍有待觀察。
民調長期顯示，台灣民眾普遍拒絕「自己是中國一部分」的說法。最新《美麗島電子報》5月民調發現，73.6%的受訪者認為當前兩岸關係是「兩個國家」之間的關係。
在正式獨立議題上，17.5%的人表示支持，另有8.6%建議先維持現狀、以後再追求獨立。超過35%希望永遠維持現狀，另有13.3%希望維持現狀並在未來決定獨立問題。
只有6%的人希望立即「統一」。
部分觀察家警告，國民黨可能將日益強烈的台灣認同感，與推動正式獨立混為一談。
前國民黨總統馬英九的幕僚何榮幸在其著作《台灣解鎖：新篇章》中指出，這個以中國為中心的政黨過去視兩個敵人為中華民國的分裂者：共產黨與「台獨分子」。
如今，國民黨卻只將獨立支持者視為「分裂分子」敵人。他認為，該黨對「獨立」的過敏，導致它將「真正的台獨基本主張、曾有台獨黨綱的民進黨，以及民眾日益增長的台灣本土意識」混為一談。
結果是國民黨幾乎將本土認同完全讓給民進黨。何榮幸認為，國民黨越是想與之區隔，「其言行與心態就越會傾向『大陸』，離台灣主流民意就越遠」。
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Trump roils waters on 'Taiwan independence': 4 things to know
Debate after US president's China trip reveals varied interpretations of touchy term
U.S. President Donald Trump and Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te: Trump recently said the U.S. is "not looking to have somebody say, 'Let's go independent.'" (Nikkei montage/Source photos by Reuters and Sae Kamae)
KAOHSIUNG, Taiwan -- When U.S. President Donald Trump visited China in mid-May, one focus was whether he would say that Washington "opposes Taiwan independence," breaking from the boilerplate line of "not supporting" it.
After the trip, the president insisted he made "no commitment" about Taiwan to Chinese leader Xi Jinping. But he did tell reporters: "We're not looking to have somebody say, 'Let's go independent because the United States is backing us.'"
A few days later, Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te reiterated his position that "the Republic of China, Taiwan, is a sovereign and independent country."
So which is it? What does "independence" mean in Taiwan's context? And why is the subject inflaming the political battle between Lai's ruling Democratic Progressive Party and the opposition led by the Kuomintang (KMT), whose leader is about to visit the U.S.?
Here are four things to know.
What, exactly, does "Taiwan independence" mean?
"Taiwan independence" is generally understood to refer to a move to abolish the old Republic of China constitution and declare de jure independence as a sovereign Taiwanese republic. Taiwan's presidents do not have the power to do this without support from three-quarters of the legislature as well as half of eligible voters in a referendum, according to Chen Yu-jie, an assistant research professor of law at Taiwan's top research institution, Academia Sinica.
This is a fundamentally different proposition from the status quo, in which Taiwan operates as a democratic polity in the name of the Republic of China. Some call this de facto independence.
China, for its part, wants to change the status quo and force Taiwan to give in to its territorial claim -- an ambition backed by a massive military buildup in recent years. Anyone who opposes Beijing's claim to sovereignty over Taiwan, or simply supports the current equilibrium, is branded an advocate of "Taiwan independence" or a dangerous "separatist."
Chang Po-yang, a city councillor in the southern city of Kaohsiung, summed up the present situation: "The status quo is already independence for Taiwan from Beijing, in the form of the Republic of China. We aren't subordinate to the People's Republic of China. These are the facts."
Chang, previously affiliated with the small Taiwan Statebuilding Party, pointed out that the Chinese Communist Party has never ruled Taiwan.
After Chiang Kai-shek and his Nationalist or Kuomintang (KMT) forces lost a civil war to the Communists and fled to Taiwan in 1949, they imposed martial law under the banner of the Republic of China for nearly 40 years. Taiwan then transitioned to democracy, instituting its own electoral system, while maintaining armed forces, a constitution and other elements that show "Taiwan is not subsumed under China," Chang said.
Where does Lai stand on independence?
Lai, like his DPP predecessor Tsai Ing-wen, prioritizes defending the status quo and resisting Beijing's efforts to chip away at Taiwan's security and international space. He has given no indication that he is considering a declaration of de jure independence.
"I have stated publicly on many occasions that as a responsible party in the region and across the Taiwan Strait, Taiwan will not provoke or escalate conflict, but it will also not relinquish its national sovereignty and dignity, or its democratic and free way of life, under pressure," Lai wrote on Facebook after Trump's remarks.
"Taiwan has always been a staunch maintainer of the status quo across the Taiwan Strait, not a party seeking to change it," Lai said, adding that there "is no 'Taiwan independence' issue."
Veteran Japanese political scientist Yoshiyuki Ogasawara observed in a recent post that the DPP did advocate for a Republic of Taiwan in the early 1990s, but by 1999 it shifted to endorsing the status quo and "sealed away" the independence idea.
A failure to understand this risks falling into Beijing's narrative trap, argued Ogasawara, honorary chair professor at National Tsing Hua University in Taiwan. He said that China conceals its "promotion of unification" with the phrase "opposition to independence," and that if Trump were to echo Xi Jinping on this point, it "could jeopardize the current status quo."
What does the KMT say?
The main opposition party and its leader, Cheng Li-wun, stick to what is known as the 1992 Consensus, a controversial notion that Taiwan belongs to a larger Chinese country. They seek closer ties with Beijing and vocally oppose the terminology "Taiwan independence."
Cheng has accused Lai of leading Taiwan into "independence fascism." At a Taiwan Foreign Correspondents' Club event in March, she stressed: "The only political foundation for peaceful cross-strait exchanges is the 1992 Consensus and opposition to Taiwan independence. Nothing more."
This was the gist of her pitch when she went to Beijing to meet Xi in April. And before Trump went to China, she publicly egged him on to oppose Taiwan independence. She will likely carry the same message when she tours the U.S. starting this coming week.
Cheng Li-wun, chairwoman of Taiwan's main opposition Kuomintang, speaks at a briefing hosted by the Taiwan Foreign Correspondents' Club. (Photo by Michael Saul Garber)While many diplomats in Taipei and experts saw Trump's remark about independence as a "non-issue," some said the U.S. president threw a rhetorical grenade onto Taiwan's political battlefield.
"The key issue is that 'Taiwan independence' means very different things to different audiences. In Taiwan's political discourse, there is a crucial distinction between de facto independence and de jure independence," said Yen Wei-ting, a political scientist at Taiwan's national academy, Academia Sinica.
"When Trump referenced 'Taiwan independence,' he did not specify which version he meant. That ambiguity created political space for KMT leaders. They could frame Trump's comments as referring to de jure independence and then associate that position with the DPP," Yen told Nikkei Asia.
This helps "cast the DPP as a potential troublemaker that could provoke conflict, while positioning the KMT as the more stable and pragmatic alternative," Yen said.
How does this affect Taiwan's political outlook?
It remains to be seen how the KMT's strategy will play in city and county elections this November -- where local issues and networks weigh much more than international relations -- and the next presidential vote in January 2028.
Opinion polls have long shown that Taiwan's people broadly reject the idea that they are part of China. The latest My Formosa polling for May found that 73.6% of respondents described the current cross-strait relationship as one "between two countries."
On de jure independence, 17.5% said they preferred it, while another 8.6% suggested maintaining the status quo first and pursuing independence later. More than 35% wanted to keep the status quo forever, while a further 13.3% called for maintaining it and deciding the independence question down the road.
Only 6% said they wanted to immediately "unify" across the strait.
Some observers warn that the KMT may be confusing the growing sense of Taiwanese identity with a push to declare de jure independence.
Rex How, a former adviser to the last KMT president, Ma Ying-jeou, says the Sino-centric party once saw two enemies who wanted to split the Republic of China: the Communist Party, and "Taiwanese independence advocates."
Now, however, the KMT sees only proponents of independence as the "separatist" enemies, How writes in his book "Taiwan Unbound: A New Chapter."
How contends that the party's "allergy" to independence has caused it to conflate the "true basic doctrine of 'Taiwan independence'; the DPP, which once in the past had a Taiwan independence party platform; and the growing 'Taiwan local consciousness' among the people."
The result is a party that has all but ceded that local identity to the DPP. The more the KMT feels it must differentiate itself, How argues, "the more their words, deeds and mentality will lean toward the 'mainland,' and the farther away they will be from the mainstream public opinion in Taiwan."
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