是時候建立「波蘭－烏克蘭聯邦」了
作者：Joe Z. Wells
2025 年 11 月 26 日
Jacek Marczewski/Agencja Wyborcza.pl
在四面環繞擴張帝國的壓力之下，波蘭王國與立陶宛大公國於 1569 年在盧布林聯合法案下組成了波蘭－立陶宛聯邦。這個多民族、宗教多元的憲政君主國從波羅的海延伸到今日烏克蘭的腹地。與其威權鄰國不同，聯邦採取的是一種兼具聯邦與邦聯特質的議會制度：受選出的貴族能與君主談判並制衡皇權的擴張。兩百多年來，聯邦抵抗俄羅斯、瑞典、哈布斯堡與奧斯曼等擴張帝國的壓力。如果今天重新打造聯邦，它將成為抵禦莫斯科威權以及布魯塞爾過度官僚化的堡壘。
在烏俄停火後，波蘭與烏克蘭應召開憲政會議，成立一個統一的「新聯邦」。這個聯盟將大幅增強北約的經濟及防衛安全。自 2004 年加入歐盟以來，波蘭 GDP 年增率達 4%，明顯超越德國、法國與義大利。依某些估計，波蘭的人均 GDP 將在 2040 年超越英國。波蘭的卓越經濟成長模式若能在烏克蘭複製，將打造出橫跨製造業、農業與礦業的巨型引擎。
新的聯邦能藉由讓供應鏈從中國大陸多元化，爭取美國的貿易與投資；隨著時間推進，聯邦可以打造規模化開採與精煉稀土的能力，也能負責任地生產藥品前體，既提供中國之外的可靠來源，也能抑制其流入非法毒品市場。透過削弱中國對稀土與藥品前體的壟斷，聯邦將在可預見的未來成為美國與其盟友的關鍵夥伴。
北約的納入並非自動，而更可能遵循德國統一的模式。新成立的聯邦將像 1990 年《巴黎協議》中的統一德國那樣，與北約談判入盟條件。因為領土爭議會成為北約加入的癥結，聯邦可能必須將戰時奪回的土地交還俄國。這雖然難以吞下，但可透過限制與課徵俄國出口來緩和。
目前支持烏克蘭的志同道合國家，可以同意限制俄羅斯商品的進口，要求俄羅斯出口需經烏克蘭（未來的聯邦）領土運輸。未來俄國出口不再能透過北溪管線或海運，而必須改以管線、鐵路或卡車穿越聯邦。如此，聯邦即可對所有俄國出口徵收運輸稅，實質上取得賠償。這項安排可簽訂條約，以時間或收入上限為基準。這也會形成一項有用的先例，影響中國是否以武力侵台的計算：即便戰場上取得成果，侵略者仍將面臨長期的經濟後果。
然而聯邦不只是經濟強權，也可成為「民主兵工廠」。自 2022 年俄國入侵以來，北約國家在提高彈藥或無人系統的生產上表現尷尬地遲緩。聯邦可以擴大炸藥、引信與砲彈的生產，以補充北約與盟國的庫存。
此外，聯邦能利用其戰鬥經驗，訓練並武裝北約各國，以其久經戰場考驗的無人系統進行偵測、打擊、防護與補給。沒有任何軍隊像烏克蘭武裝部隊那樣深入整合無人系統。聯邦還能與盟國合作，補足盟國在電子戰能力上的缺口。烏克蘭已展現電子戰對現代戰場的重要性：若運用得當，它可提高自身存活率，或協助鎖定敵方的動能攻擊。
最後，聯邦可仿效或加入近期美英的核能合作倡議，以降低消費者與生產者的能源成本。上游方面，聯邦能加速先進核反應爐（ANRs）的審核與建造，並整合至電網；下游方面，聯邦可以製造這些反應爐的專用組件，或承擔處理、回收與安全處置核物質的設施。
一個波蘭－烏克蘭聯邦的建立，將誕生出一個能制衡俄國侵略、削弱中國非對稱優勢的新興歐洲強權。聯邦將立即擁有歐洲最致命、最具能力的軍隊；在短時間內，也能打造出重要的國防工業基礎，為歐洲與其盟友生產彈藥與自主無人系統。結合約 7500 萬人口及波蘭支持成長的政策，聯邦有潛力成為歐洲下一個經濟引擎。未來，強大的聯邦甚至可與一個改革後、民主化的俄羅斯合作。
Joe Z. Wells 上校
美國陸軍指揮與參謀學院、陸軍大學
「高等軍事研究學院」（SAMS）研討課講師
本文僅代表作者個人觀點，不代表美國陸軍或國防部立場
It’s time for the Polish-Ukrainian Commonwealth
By Joe Z. Wells
November 26, 2025
Jacek Marczewski/Agencja Wyborcza.pl
Surrounded by expansionist empires, the Kingdom of Poland and the Duchy of Lithuania formed the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth at the Union of Lublin in 1569. This multi-ethnic and religiously diverse constitutional monarchy stretched from the Baltic Sea to the heartland of modern-day Ukraine. Unlike its authoritarian neighbors, the Commonwealth adopted a parliamentary system that blended aspects of federation and confederation. Elected nobles negotiated with the monarch and checked imperial overreach. For over 200 years, the Commonwealth battled an onslaught of expansionist empires to include the Russians, Swedes, Hapsburgs, and Ottomans. A new Commonwealth would serve as a bulwark against authoritarians in Moscow and overzealous bureaucrats in Brussels.
Following a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire, Poland and Ukraine should hold a constitutional convention and form a united Commonwealth. This union would significantly enhance the economic and defense security of NATO. Since joining the European Union in 2004, Poland’s GDP has increased annually at 4%, significantly outpacing the economies of Germany, France, and Italy. By some estimates, Poland’s per capita GDP will exceed that of the United Kingdom by 2040. Poland’s extraordinary economic growth model could be replicated in Ukraine, creating a manufacturing, agricultural, and mining juggernaut. The Commonwealth could court trade and investment from the United States by diversifying critical supply chains away from the People’s Republic of China (PRC). In time, the Commonwealth could build the capability and capacity to extract and refine rare earth metals at scale. Additionally, the Commonwealth could responsibly produce essential precursors to pharmaceuticals. This would not only create a reliable source outside of the PRC but also constrain their use in the illicit drug trade. By weakening the PRC stranglehold on rare earths and pharmaceutical precursors, the Commonwealth would be a critical partner to the U.S. and its allies for years to come.
NATO inclusion would not be automatic but would most likely follow the model of German unification. The newly formed Commonwealth would negotiate terms of NATO membership just as a unified Germany did at the Paris Agreements in 1990. Because ongoing territorial disputes would be a sticking point to NATO accession, the Commonwealth would likely have to yield conquered land to Russia. This would be a bitter pill to swallow but could be softened by constraining and taxing Russian exports. All likeminded nations that currently support Ukraine could agree to restrict the importation of Russian goods by requiring their transport over Ukrainian territory. Future Russian exports would not be permitted to be delivered by NORDSTREAM pipelines or ships but instead would have to travel via pipeline, rail, or truck through the Commonwealth. This requirement would enable the Commonwealth to extract reparations by taxing the transport of all Russian exports. This agreement could be ratified by treaty and extend over a certain period of time or up to a specified amount of revenue. This would set a useful precedent that would influence PRC calculus to invade Taiwan. Despite battlefield results, aggressors will suffer long-term economic consequences.
Not only an economic powerhouse, the Commonwealth could serve as an arsenal for democracy. Since Russia’s 2022 invasion, NATO nations have been embarrassingly slow to increase the production of munitions or unmanned systems in a meaningful way. The Commonwealth could scale the production of explosives, fuses, and artillery rounds to replenish NATO and ally stocks. Moreover, the Commonwealth could leverage its warfighting experience to train and arm NATO nations with battle-tested unmanned systems to sense, strike, protect, and sustain. No military has integrated and employed unmanned systems more than Armed Forces of Ukraine. The Commonwealth could partner with allies to address electronic warfare capability shortfalls among allies. Ukraine has demonstrated that electronic warfare is critical on the modern battlefield. When leveraged correctly, it can increase one’s survivability or enable kinetic targeting of the enemy. Finally, the Commonwealth could model or join recent U.S.-UK nuclear initiatives aimed at driving down the cost of energy for consumers and producers alike. Upstream, the Commonwealth could speed the approvals and construction of advanced nuclear reactors (ANRs) and integration into the power grid. Downstream, the Commonwealth could fabricate specialized components for these reactors or host facilities that process, recycle, and safely dispose of nuclear material.
A Polish-Ukrainian Commonwealth would create an emerging European power with the capacity to check Russian aggression and undermine PRC asymmetric advantages. The Commonwealth would immediately field the most lethal and capable army in Europe. In short time, it could develop a significant defense industrial base that supplies Europe and allies with munitions and unmanned autonomous systems. With a combined population of around 75 million people and the pro-growth policies of Poland, the Commonwealth could serve as Europe’s next engine of growth. Down the road, a strong Commonwealth would be poised to partner with a reformed, democratic Russia.
COL Joe Z. Wells is a seminar leader at the School of Advanced Military Studies (SAMS) at the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College and Army University.
The views expressed in this article are the author's own and not that of the U.S. Army or the Department of Defense.
