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絞刑

 喬治‧歐威爾>絞刑 >散文

絞刑

絞刑

奧威爾基金會是一個獨立的慈善機構。我們依靠 捐贈者、朋友和贊助人的慷慨 來維護這些免費資源。

那是在緬甸,一個陰雨綿綿的早晨。一道昏暗的燈光,像黃色的錫箔,斜射過高牆,照進監獄的院子裡。我們在死囚牢房外面等候,那是一排棚子,前面有雙層柵欄,像小動物的籠子一樣。每個牢房大約有十英尺見方,裡面除了一張木板床和一壺飲用水外,空無一物。在一些監獄裡,棕色皮膚的男人們沉默地蹲在裡面的柵欄裡,身上披著毯子。這些都是被判死刑的人,將在一兩週內被絞死。

一名囚犯被帶出了牢房。他是印度教徒,身材瘦小,剃著光頭,眼睛無神。他留著濃密的、正在生長的鬍子,與他的身體不成比例,很像電影裡喜劇演員的鬍子。六個高大的印度獄卒看守著他,準備將他送上絞刑架。其中兩人手持步槍和上好刺刀的槍站在一旁,其他人則給他戴上手銬,將鏈條穿過手銬固定在腰帶上,並將他的雙臂緊緊綁在身體兩側。他們緊緊地圍著他,雙手始終小心翼翼地、愛撫地放在他身上,彷彿一直在感受他,確保他就在那裡。這就像人們處理一條還活著的魚,它可能會跳回水裡。但他站在那裡,沒有抵抗,雙臂無力地垂在繩子上,好像他幾乎沒有註意到發生了什麼事。

八點鐘敲響,遠處的營房裡飄來一聲號角聲,在潮濕的空氣中顯得淒涼而稀薄。獄長站在我們旁邊,悶悶不樂地用棍子戳著礫石,聽到聲音,他抬起了頭。他是一名軍醫,留著灰色的牙刷狀小鬍子,聲音粗啞。 「看在上帝的份上,快點,法蘭西斯,」他煩躁地說。 “那人現在應該已經死了。你還沒準備好嗎?”

獄長法蘭西斯是個身材肥胖的達羅毗荼人,身穿白色粗佈軍裝,戴著金色眼鏡,他揮舞著黑色的手。 「是的,長官,是的,長官,」他興奮地說。 “一切準備就緒。劊子手正在等候。我們繼續。”

「好吧,那就快走吧。這項工作要等到結束,囚犯們才能吃早餐。”

我們出發去絞刑架。兩名獄警走在囚犯的兩側,手裡拿著步槍,放在斜坡上;另外兩個人向他靠近,抓住他的手臂和肩膀,好像在推他又在扶他。我們其餘的人,像是地方法官之類的,都跟在後面。突然,當我們走了十碼的時候,遊行隊伍突然停了下來,沒有任何命令或警告。一件可怕的事發生了──一隻狗,天知道它從哪裡來的,出現在了院子裡。它大聲吠叫著,蹦蹦跳跳地跑到我們中間,在我們周圍跳來跳去,搖晃著整個身體,發現這麼多人聚集在一起,高興得發狂。這是一隻毛茸茸的大狗,一半是萬能梗,一半是流浪狗。它在我們周圍蹦蹦跳跳了一會兒,然後,在任何人阻止它之前,它衝向囚犯,跳起來試圖舔他的臉。所有人都驚呆了,甚至沒有力氣去抓那隻狗。

「誰讓這個該死的畜生進來的?」 」警司 憤怒地說。「快來人,接住它! 」

一名脫離押送隊伍的獄警笨拙地追趕那隻狗,但那隻狗卻在他的觸及範圍之外跳來跳去,把一切都當成了遊戲的一部分。一名年輕的歐亞混血獄卒抓起一把碎石,試圖用石頭把那隻狗趕走,但它躲開了石頭,再次追上我們。它的叫聲在監獄的哀號聲中迴盪。囚犯被兩名獄卒緊緊抓住,漠然地看著這一切,彷彿這只是絞刑的另一種形式。幾分鐘後,有人才設法抓住了這隻狗。然後,我們把我的手帕穿過它的項圈,再次出發,而狗仍然在掙扎並嗚咽。

距離絞刑架大約有四十碼。我看著囚犯裸露的棕色背部在我前面行進。他雙臂被綁著,步伐笨拙,但走得很穩,步態搖擺不定,就像印度人那樣,膝蓋從不伸直。每走一步,他的肌肉都整齊地滑入到位,頭皮上的一綹頭髮上下跳動,他的腳印印在濕漉漉的礫石上。有一次,儘管兩個男人緊緊抓住他的肩膀,他還是稍微往旁邊挪了挪,以避開路上的水坑。

奇怪的是,直到那一刻我才意識到摧毀一個健康、有意識的人意味著什麼。當我看到囚犯走到一邊避開水坑時,我看到了在潮水漲潮時結束生命的神秘性和難以言喻的錯誤。這個人沒有死,他還活著,就像我們活著一樣。他身體的所有器官都在運作——腸道消化食物、皮膚更新、指甲生長、組織形成——一切都在莊嚴而愚蠢地工作。當他站在懸崖邊上,當他從空中墜落,只剩下十分之一秒的生命時,他的指甲還在生長。他的眼睛看到了黃色的礫石和灰色的牆壁,他的大腦仍然記得、預見、推理——甚至推理了水坑。他和我們是一群一起行走的人,看到、聽到、感受到、理解同一個世界;兩分鐘後,隨著一聲突然的響聲,我們中的一個人就消失了——失去了一個思想,失去了一個世界。

絞刑架位於一個小院子裡,與監獄的主場地隔開,院子裡長滿了高高的多刺的雜草。它是用磚砌成的,像棚子的三面,上面鋪著木板,再上面有兩根橫樑和一根橫桿,繩子懸垂著。絞刑官是一名身穿白色監獄制服、頭髮花白的囚犯,他正在絞刑架旁等候。當我們進去時,他卑躬屈膝地向我們致意。法蘭西斯一聲令下,兩名獄卒更加緊緊地抓住了囚犯,半推半拽地將他帶到絞刑架上,然後笨拙地扶著他爬上梯子。然後,絞刑官站起身,將繩子固定在囚犯的脖子上。

我們站在五碼外等待。獄警們在絞刑架周圍圍成一個圓圈。然後,當套索被固定住時,囚犯開始向他的上帝哭喊。那是一聲高亢、反覆的「拉姆!拉姆!拉姆!拉姆!」的呼喊,不像祈禱或求救那樣急切或恐懼,而是穩定、有節奏的,幾乎就像鐘聲一樣。那隻狗用嗚咽聲回應了這聲音。劊子手仍然站在絞刑架上,拿出一個像麵粉袋一樣的小棉袋,罩在囚犯的臉上。但被布料掩蓋的聲音仍然不斷響起,一遍又一遍:“拉姆!拉姆!拉姆!拉姆!拉姆!”

劊子手爬下來,站好,握住槓桿。幾分鐘似乎就過去了。囚犯持續不斷地發出低沉的哭喊:「拉姆!拉姆!拉姆!」一刻也不動搖。警司把頭埋在胸前,用棍子慢慢地戳著地面;也許他正在數著囚犯的哭喊聲,以便給他們一個固定的數字——五十個,或者一百個。整個人都變了臉色。印第安人已經變得像變質的咖啡一樣灰白,其中有一兩把刺刀在搖晃。我們看著站在懸崖邊、戴著頭巾、被鞭子抽打的男人,聽著他的哭喊聲——每一聲哭喊都意味著一秒的生命;我們所有人的心裡都有同樣的想法:哦,快點殺了他,快點結束這一切,別再發出那可惡的噪音了!

突然,警司下定了決心。他揚起頭,迅速揮動著棍子。 「你好!」他幾乎是兇猛地喊道。

一陣叮噹聲響起,隨後一片死寂。囚犯已經消失,繩子開始自行纏繞。我放開狗,它立刻飛奔到絞刑架後面;但當它到達那裡時,它突然停了下來,吠叫了幾聲,然後退到院子的一個角落裡,站在雜草叢中,膽怯地望著我們。我們繞著絞刑架走了一圈,檢查囚犯的屍體。他懸在空中,腳趾直直地朝下,緩慢地旋轉著,像石頭一樣死氣沉沉。

警司伸出棍子戳了戳那名警官的裸露屍體;它輕微地擺動著。 「他沒事,」警司說。他從絞刑架下退出來,深深呼出一口氣。他臉上憂鬱的表情突然消失了。他看了一眼手錶。 “八點零八分。好了,今天早上就到這裡了,感謝上帝。”

獄警們卸下刺刀,列隊走開。那隻狗清醒過來,意識到自己行為不當,便溜了出去跟在他們後面。我們走出絞刑架場,經過關著囚犯的死囚牢房,進入監獄的中央院。囚犯們在手持警棍的獄警的指揮下,已經開始吃早餐了。他們蹲成長長的一排,每人手裡拿著一個錫盤,兩名獄警提著桶子四處走動,舀出米飯。絞刑之後,這似乎是多麼溫馨、歡樂的景象。現在工作已經完成,我們感到如釋重負。一個人會感到一種想唱歌、想奔跑、想竊笑的衝動。突然,大家都開始興高采烈地聊天。

走在我身旁的歐亞混血男孩朝我們來時的路點了點頭,帶著會心的微笑:「先生,您知道嗎,我們的朋友(他指的是那個死者),當他聽說上訴被駁回時,嚇得在牢房的地板上撒尿。——先生,請拿一支我的香煙。你不欣賞我的新銀煙盒嗎,

有幾個人笑了——但似乎沒人知道為什麼。

法蘭西斯從主管身邊走過,喋喋不休地說著話。 「嗯,先生,一切順利,一切都結束了。一切都結束了——輕彈!就像那樣。情況並不總是這樣——哦,不!我知道有些案例,醫生不得不走到絞刑架下面,拉動犯人的腿,以確保他死亡。真是令人不快!”

「扭來扭去,嗯?真糟糕,」主管說。

「哎呀,先生,他們要是變得不聽話就更糟了!我記得,我們​​去把他抬出去的時候,有個人死死地抓著籠子的欄桿。先生,您肯定想不到,我們動用了六個獄警,每條腿三個人拽著,才把他拽了出來。我們跟他理論。「我親愛的朋友,」我們說,「想想你給我們帶來了多少痛苦! 」 「可是他不聽!哎,他真煩人! 」

我發現我笑得相當大聲。大家都笑了。連警司也寬容地笑了。 「你們最好都出來喝一杯,」他非常和藹地說。 “我車裡有一瓶威士忌。我們可以喝點。”

我們穿過監獄的雙大門,來到馬路上。 「拉他的腿!」一名緬甸地方官員突然驚呼道,並發出一陣大笑。我們又都笑了起來。那一刻,法蘭西斯的軼事顯得格外有趣。我們所有人,無論是當地人還是歐洲人,都相處得很友善。死者距離這裡有一百碼遠。

首次發表於1931 年 8 月的《阿德爾菲報》 | 新薩沃伊》1946 年《

該資料在包括美國在內的一些司法管轄區仍受版權保護,並經奧威爾莊園的許可在此複製

A Hanging

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It was in Burma, a sodden morning of the rains. A sickly light, like yellow tinfoil, was slanting over the high walls into the jail yard. We were waiting outside the condemned cells, a row of sheds fronted with double bars, like small animal cages. Each cell measured about ten feet by ten and was quite bare within except for a plank bed and a pot of drinking water. In some of them brown silent men were squatting at the inner bars, with their blankets draped round them. These were the condemned men, due to be hanged within the next week or two.

One prisoner had been brought out of his cell. He was a Hindu, a puny wisp of a man, with a shaven head and vague liquid eyes. He had a thick, sprouting moustache, absurdly too big for his body, rather like the moustache of a comic man on the films. Six tall Indian warders were guarding him and getting him ready for the gallows. Two of them stood by with rifles and fixed bayonets, while the others handcuffed him, passed a chain through his handcuffs and fixed it to their belts, and lashed his arms tight to his sides. They crowded very close about him, with their hands always on him in a careful, caressing grip, as though all the while feeling him to make sure he was there. It was like men handling a fish which is still alive and may jump back into the water. But he stood quite unresisting, yielding his arms limply to the ropes, as though he hardly noticed what was happening.

Eight o’clock struck and a bugle call, desolately thin in the wet air, floated from the distant barracks. The superintendent of the jail, who was standing apart from the rest of us, moodily prodding the gravel with his stick, raised his head at the sound. He was an army doctor, with a grey toothbrush moustache and a gruff voice. “For God’s sake hurry up, Francis,” he said irritably. “The man ought to have been dead by this time. Aren’t you ready yet?”

Francis, the head jailer, a fat Dravidian in a white drill suit and gold spectacles, waved his black hand. “Yes sir, yes sir,” he bubbled. “All iss satisfactorily prepared. The hangman iss waiting. We shall proceed.”

“Well, quick march, then. The prisoners can’t get their breakfast till this job’s over.”

We set out for the gallows. Two warders marched on either side of the prisoner, with their rifles at the slope; two others marched close against him, gripping him by arm and shoulder, as though at once pushing and supporting him. The rest of us, magistrates and the like, followed behind. Suddenly, when we had gone ten yards, the procession stopped short without any order or warning. A dreadful thing had happened–a dog, come goodness knows whence, had appeared in the yard. It came bounding among us with a loud volley of barks, and leapt round us wagging its whole body, wild with glee at finding so many human beings together. It was a large woolly dog, half Airedale, half pariah. For a moment it pranced round us, and then, before anyone could stop it, it had made a dash for the prisoner, and jumping up tried to lick his face. Everyone stood aghast, too taken aback even to grab at the dog.

“Who let that bloody brute in here?” said the superintendent angrily. “Catch it, someone!”

A warder, detached from the escort, charged clumsily after the dog, but it danced and gambolled just out of his reach, taking everything as part of the game. A young Eurasian jailer picked up a handful of gravel and tried to stone the dog away, but it dodged the stones and came after us again. Its yaps echoed from the jail wails. The prisoner, in the grasp of the two warders, looked on incuriously, as though this was another formality of the hanging. It was several minutes before someone managed to catch the dog. Then we put my handkerchief through its collar and moved off once more, with the dog still straining and whimpering.

It was about forty yards to the gallows. I watched the bare brown back of the prisoner marching in front of me. He walked clumsily with his bound arms, but quite steadily, with that bobbing gait of the Indian who never straightens his knees. At each step his muscles slid neatly into place, the lock of hair on his scalp danced up and down, his feet printed themselves on the wet gravel. And once, in spite of the men who gripped him by each shoulder, he stepped slightly aside to avoid a puddle on the path.

It is curious, but till that moment I had never realized what it means to destroy a healthy, conscious man. When I saw the prisoner step aside to avoid the puddle, I saw the mystery, the unspeakable wrongness, of cutting a life short when it is in full tide. This man was not dying, he was alive just as we were alive. All the organs of his body were working –bowels digesting food, skin renewing itself, nails growing, tissues forming–all toiling away in solemn foolery. His nails would still be growing when he stood on the drop, when he was falling through the air with a tenth of a second to live. His eyes saw the yellow gravel and the grey walls, and his brain still remembered, foresaw, reasoned – reasoned even about puddles. He and we were a party of men walking together, seeing, hearing, feeling, understanding the same world; and in two minutes, with a sudden snap, one of us would be gone – one mind less, one world less.

The gallows stood in a small yard, separate from the main grounds of the prison, and overgrown with tall prickly weeds. It was a brick erection like three sides of a shed, with planking on top, and above that two beams and a crossbar with the rope dangling. The hangman, a grey-haired convict in the white uniform of the prison, was waiting beside his machine. He greeted us with a servile crouch as we entered. At a word from Francis the two warders, gripping the prisoner more closely than ever, half led, half pushed him to the gallows and helped him clumsily up the ladder. Then the hangman limbed up and fixed the rope round the prisoner’s neck.

We stood waiting, five yards away. The warders had formed in a rough circle round the gallows. And then, when the noose was fixed, the prisoner began crying out on his god. It was a high, reiterated cry of “Ram! Ram! Ram! Ram!”, not urgent and fearful like a prayer or a cry for help, but steady, rhythmical, almost like the tolling of a bell. The dog answered the sound with a whine. The hangman, still standing on the gallows, produced a small cotton bag like a flour bag and drew it down over the prisoner’s face. But the sound, muffled by the cloth, still persisted, over and over again: “Ram! Ram! Ram! Ram! Ram!”

The hangman climbed down and stood ready, holding the lever. Minutes seemed to pass. The steady, muffled crying from the prisoner went on and on, “Ram! Ram! Ram!” never faltering for an instant. The superintendent, his head on his chest, was slowly poking the ground with his stick; perhaps he was counting the cries, allowing the prisoner a fixed number – fifty, perhaps, or a hundred. Everyone had changed colour. The Indians had gone grey like bad coffee, and one or two of the bayonets were wavering. We looked at the lashed, hooded man on the drop, and listened to his cries – each cry another second of life; the same thought was in all our minds: oh, kill him quickly, get it over, stop that abominable noise!

Suddenly the superintendent made up his mind. Throwing up his head he made a swift motion with his stick. “Chalo!” he shouted almost fiercely.

There was a clanking noise, and then dead silence. The prisoner had vanished, and the rope was twisting on itself. I let go of the dog, and it galloped immediately to the back of the gallows; but when it got there it stopped short, barked, and then retreated into a corner of the yard, where it stood among the weeds, looking timorously out at us. We went round the gallows to inspect the prisoner’s body. He was dangling with his toes pointed straight downwards, very slowly revolving, as dead as a stone.

The superintendent reached out with his stick and poked the bare body; it oscillated, slightly. “He’s all right,” said the superintendent. He backed out from under the gallows, and blew out a deep breath. The moody look had gone out of his face quite suddenly. He glanced at his wrist-watch. “Eight minutes past eight. Well, that’s all for this morning, thank God.”

The warders unfixed bayonets and marched away. The dog, sobered and conscious of having misbehaved itself, slipped after them. We walked out of the gallows yard, past the condemned cells with their waiting prisoners, into the big central yard of the prison. The convicts, under the command of warders armed with lathis, were already receiving their breakfast. They squatted in long rows, each man holding a tin pannikin, while two warders with buckets marched round ladling out rice; it seemed quite a homely, jolly scene, after the hanging. An enormous relief had come upon us now that the job was done. One felt an impulse to sing, to break into a run, to snigger. All at once everyone began chattering gaily.

The Eurasian boy walking beside me nodded towards the way we had come, with a knowing smile: “Do you know, sir, our friend (he meant the dead man), when he heard his appeal had been dismissed, he pissed on the floor of his cell. From fright. –Kindly take one of my cigarettes, sir. Do you not admire my new silver case, sir? From the boxwallah, two rupees eight annas. Classy European style.”

Several people laughed – at what, nobody seemed certain.

Francis was walking by the superintendent, talking garrulously. “Well, sir, all hass passed off with the utmost satisfactoriness. It wass all finished – flick! like that. It iss not always so – oah, no! I have known cases where the doctor wass obliged to go beneath the gallows and pull the prisoner’s legs to ensure decease. Most disagreeable!”

“Wriggling about, eh? That’s bad,” said the superintendent.

“Ach, sir, it iss worse when they become refractory! One man, I recall, clung to the bars of hiss cage when we went to take him out. You will scarcely credit, sir, that it took six warders to dislodge him, three pulling at each leg. We reasoned with him. “My dear fellow,” we said, “think of all the pain and trouble you are causing to us!” But no, he would not listen! Ach, he wass very troublesome!”

I found that I was laughing quite loudly. Everyone was laughing. Even the superintendent grinned in a tolerant way. “You’d better all come out and have a drink,” he said quite genially. “I’ve got a bottle of whisky in the car. We could do with it.”

We went through the big double gates of the prison, into the road. “Pulling at his legs!” exclaimed a Burmese magistrate suddenly, and burst into a loud chuckling. We all began laughing again. At that moment Francis’s anecdote seemed extraordinarily funny. We all had a drink together, native and European alike, quite amicably. The dead man was a hundred yards away.

First published in The Adelphi, August 1931 | Reprinted in The New Savoy, 1946

This material remains under copyright in some jurisdictions, including the US, and is reproduced here with the kind permission of the Orwell Estate.

散文


那是在緬甸,一個陰雨綿綿的早晨。一道昏暗的燈光,像

黃色的錫箔,斜射過高牆,照進監獄的院子裡。我們

在死囚牢房外面等候,那是一排棚子,前面有

雙層柵欄,像小動物的籠子一樣。每個牢房大約有十英尺見方

,裡面除了一張木板床和一壺

飲用水外,空無一物。在一些監獄裡,棕色皮膚的男人們沉默地蹲在

裡面的柵欄裡,身上披著毯子。這些都是

被判死刑的人,將在一兩週內被絞死。


一名囚犯被帶出了牢房。他是印度教徒,

身材瘦小,剃著光頭,眼睛無神。他留著濃密的、

正在生長的鬍子,與他的身體不成比例,很像

電影裡喜劇演員的鬍子。六個高大的印度獄卒

看守著他,準備將他送上絞刑架。其中兩人

手持步槍和上好刺刀的槍站在一旁,其他人則給他戴上手銬,將

鏈條穿過手銬固定在腰帶上,並將他的

雙臂緊緊綁在身體兩側。他們緊緊地圍著他,雙手

始終小心翼翼地、愛撫地放在他身上,彷彿一直在

感受他,確保他就在那裡。這就像人們處理一條

還活著的魚,它可能會跳回水裡。但他站在那裡

,沒有抵抗,雙臂無力地垂在繩子上,好像他幾乎沒有

註意到發生了什麼事。 八點鐘敲響,遠處的營房裡飄來


一聲號角聲,在潮濕的空氣中顯得淒涼而稀薄 。

獄長

站在我們旁邊,悶悶不樂地用

棍子戳著礫石,聽到聲音,他抬起了頭。他是一名軍醫,留著

灰色的牙刷狀小鬍子,聲音粗啞。 「看在上帝的份上,快點,

法蘭西斯,」他煩躁地說。 「那人現在應該已經死了

。你還沒準備好嗎?」


獄長法蘭西斯是一名身材肥胖的達羅毗荼人,身穿白色粗佈軍裝,戴著金色

眼鏡,他揮舞著黑色的手。 「是的,長官,是的,長官,」他興奮地說。 「一切

準備就緒。劊子手正在等候。我們繼續。」 「 好吧,那就快走吧。這項工作


要等到結束,囚犯們才能吃早餐 。」我們出發去絞刑架。兩名獄警走在囚犯的兩側 ,手裡拿著步槍,放在斜坡上;另外兩個人向他靠近 ,抓住他的手臂和肩膀,好像在推 他又在扶他。我們其餘的人,包括治安官和類似的官員,也跟著







在後面。突然,當我們走了十碼的時候,遊行隊伍突然停了

下來,沒有任何命令或警告。一件可怕的事發生了──一隻

狗,天知道它從哪裡來的,出現在了院子裡。它

大聲吠叫著,蹦蹦跳跳地跑到我們中間,在我們周圍跳來跳去,搖晃著

整個身體,發現這麼多人聚集在一起,高興得發狂。

這是一隻毛茸茸的大狗,一半是萬能梗,一半是流浪狗。它在我們周圍蹦蹦跳跳了一會兒

,然後,在任何人阻止它之前,它衝向

囚犯,跳起來試圖舔他的臉。所有人都

驚呆了,甚至沒有力氣去抓那隻狗。


「誰讓這個該死的畜生進來的?」 」警司憤怒地說。

「快來人,抓住它! 「


一個脫離押送隊伍的獄警笨拙地追趕那隻狗,但那

隻狗卻在他的觸及範圍之外跳來跳去,把一切都當成了

遊戲的一部分。一名年輕的歐亞混血獄卒抓起一把碎石,

試圖用石頭把那條狗趕走,但它躲開了石頭,

再次被關緊地看著這一切,在監獄的哀號聲中被哀嘆

這一切。只是 絞刑 的

另 一種

形式 。​的肌肉都整齊地滑入到位, 頭皮上的一綹頭髮上下跳動,他的腳印印 在濕漉漉的礫石上。 有一次,儘管 兩個男人緊緊抓住他 的肩膀,他還是稍微往旁邊 挪了挪,以避開路上的 水坑 。 結束生命的神秘性和難以 言喻 的 錯誤 。


A Hanging


Essay


It was in Burma, a sodden morning of the rains. A sickly light, like

yellow tinfoil, was slanting over the high walls into the jail yard. We

were waiting outside the condemned cells, a row of sheds fronted with

double bars, like small animal cages. Each cell measured about ten feet

by ten and was quite bare within except for a plank bed and a pot of

drinking water. In some of them brown silent men were squatting at the

inner bars, with their blankets draped round them. These were the

condemned men, due to be hanged within the next week or two.


One prisoner had been brought out of his cell. He was a Hindu, a puny

wisp of a man, with a shaven head and vague liquid eyes. He had a thick,

sprouting moustache, absurdly too big for his body, rather like the

moustache of a comic man on the films. Six tall Indian warders were

guarding him and getting him ready for the gallows. Two of them stood by

with rifles and fixed bayonets, while the others handcuffed him, passed a

chain through his handcuffs and fixed it to their belts, and lashed his

arms tight to his sides. They crowded very close about him, with their

hands always on him in a careful, caressing grip, as though all the while

feeling him to make sure he was there. It was like men handling a fish

which is still alive and may jump back into the water. But he stood quite

unresisting, yielding his arms limply to the ropes, as though he hardly

noticed what was happening.


Eight o'clock struck and a bugle call, desolately thin in the wet air,

floated from the distant barracks. The superintendent of the jail, who

was standing apart from the rest of us, moodily prodding the gravel with

his stick, raised his head at the sound. He was an army doctor, with a

grey toothbrush moustache and a gruff voice. "For God's sake hurry up,

Francis," he said irritably. "The man ought to have been dead by this

time. Aren't you ready yet?"


Francis, the head jailer, a fat Dravidian in a white drill suit and gold

spectacles, waved his black hand. "Yes sir, yes sir," he bubbled. "All

iss satisfactorily prepared. The hangman iss waiting. We shall proceed."


"Well, quick march, then. The prisoners can't get their breakfast till

this job's over."


We set out for the gallows. Two warders marched on either side of the

prisoner, with their rifles at the slope; two others marched close

against him, gripping him by arm and shoulder, as though at once pushing

and supporting him. The rest of us, magistrates and the like, followed

behind. Suddenly, when we had gone ten yards, the procession stopped

short without any order or warning. A dreadful thing had happened--a

dog, come goodness knows whence, had appeared in the yard. It came

bounding among us with a loud volley of barks, and leapt round us wagging

its whole body, wild with glee at finding so many human beings together.

It was a large woolly dog, half Airedale, half pariah. For a moment it

pranced round us, and then, before anyone could stop it, it had made a

dash for the prisoner, and jumping up tried to lick his face. Everyone

stood aghast, too taken aback even to grab at the dog.


"Who let that bloody brute in here?" said the superintendent angrily.

"Catch it, someone!"


A warder, detached from the escort, charged clumsily after the dog, but

it danced and gambolled just out of his reach, taking everything as part

of the game. A young Eurasian jailer picked up a handful of gravel and

tried to stone the dog away, but it dodged the stones and came after us

again. Its yaps echoed from the jail wails. The prisoner, in the grasp of

the two warders, looked on incuriously, as though this was another

formality of the hanging. It was several minutes before someone managed

to catch the dog. Then we put my handkerchief through its collar and

moved off once more, with the dog still straining and whimpering.


It was about forty yards to the gallows. I watched the bare brown back of

the prisoner marching in front of me. He walked clumsily with his bound

arms, but quite steadily, with that bobbing gait of the Indian who never

straightens his knees. At each step his muscles slid neatly into place,

the lock of hair on his scalp danced up and down, his feet printed

themselves on the wet gravel. And once, in spite of the men who gripped

him by each shoulder, he stepped slightly aside to avoid a puddle on the

path.


It is curious, but till that moment I had never realized what it means to

destroy a healthy, conscious man. When I saw the prisoner step aside to

avoid the puddle, I saw the mystery, the unspeakable wrongness, of

cutting a life short when it is in full tide. This man was not dying, he

was alive just as we were alive. All the organs of his body were working

--bowels digesting food, skin renewing itself, nails growing, tissues

forming--all toiling away in solemn foolery. His nails would still be

growing when he stood on the drop, when he was falling through the air

with a tenth of a second to live. His eyes saw the yellow gravel and the

grey walls, and his brain still remembered, foresaw, reasoned--reasoned

even about puddles. He and we were a party of men walking together,

seeing, hearing, feeling, understanding the same world; and in two

minutes, with a sudden snap, one of us would be gone--one mind less, one

world less.


The gallows stood in a small yard, separate from the main grounds of the

prison, and overgrown with tall prickly weeds. It was a brick erection

like three sides of a shed, with planking on top, and above that two

beams and a crossbar with the rope dangling. The hangman, a grey-haired

convict in the white uniform of the prison, was waiting beside his

machine. He greeted us with a servile crouch as we entered. At a word

from Francis the two warders, gripping the prisoner more closely than

ever, half led, half pushed him to the gallows and helped him clumsily up

the ladder. Then the hangman climbed up and fixed the rope round the

prisoner's neck.


We stood waiting, five yards away. The warders had formed in a rough

circle round the gallows. And then, when the noose was fixed, the

prisoner began crying out on his god. It was a high, reiterated cry of

"Ram! Ram! Ram! Ram!", not urgent and fearful like a prayer or a cry for

help, but steady, rhythmical, almost like the tolling of a bell. The dog

answered the sound with a whine. The hangman, still standing on the

gallows, produced a small cotton bag like a flour bag and drew it down

over the prisoner's face. But the sound, muffled by the cloth, still

persisted, over and over again: "Ram! Ram! Ram! Ram! Ram!"


The hangman climbed down and stood ready, holding the lever. Minutes

seemed to pass. The steady, muffled crying from the prisoner went on and

on, "Ram! Ram! Ram!" never faltering for an instant. The superintendent,

his head on his chest, was slowly poking the ground with his stick;

perhaps he was counting the cries, allowing the prisoner a fixed number--

fifty, perhaps, or a hundred. Everyone had changed colour. The Indians

had gone grey like bad coffee, and one or two of the bayonets were

wavering. We looked at the lashed, hooded man on the drop, and listened

to his cries--each cry another second of life; the same thought was in

all our minds: oh, kill him quickly, get it over, stop that abominable

noise!


Suddenly the superintendent made up his mind. Throwing up his head he

made a swift motion with his stick. "Chalo!" he shouted almost fiercely.


There was a clanking noise, and then dead silence. The prisoner had

vanished, and the rope was twisting on itself. I let go of the dog, and

it galloped immediately to the back of the gallows; but when it got there

it stopped short, barked, and then retreated into a corner of the yard,

where it stood among the weeds, looking timorously out at us. We went

round the gallows to inspect the prisoner's body. He was dangling with

his toes pointed straight downwards, very slowly revolving, as dead as a

stone.


The superintendent reached out with his stick and poked the bare body; it

oscillated, slightly. "HE'S all right," said the superintendent. He

backed out from under the gallows, and blew out a deep breath. The moody

look had gone out of his face quite suddenly. He glanced at his

wrist-watch. "Eight minutes past eight. Well, that's all for this

morning, thank God."


The warders unfixed bayonets and marched away. The dog, sobered and

conscious of having misbehaved itself, slipped after them. We walked out

of the gallows yard, past the condemned cells with their waiting

prisoners, into the big central yard of the prison. The convicts, under

the command of warders armed with lathis, were already receiving their

breakfast. They squatted in long rows, each man holding a tin pannikin,

while two warders with buckets marched round ladling out rice; it seemed

quite a homely, jolly scene, after the hanging. An enormous relief had

come upon us now that the job was done. One felt an impulse to sing, to

break into a run, to snigger. All at once everyone began chattering

gaily.


The Eurasian boy walking beside me nodded towards the way we had come,

with a knowing smile: "Do you know, sir, our friend (he meant the dead

man), when he heard his appeal had been dismissed, he pissed on the floor

of his cell. From fright.--Kindly take one of my cigarettes, sir. Do you

not admire my new silver case, sir? From the boxwallah, two rupees eight

annas. Classy European style."


Several people laughed--at what, nobody seemed certain.


Francis was walking by the superintendent, talking garrulously. "Well,

sir, all hass passed off with the utmost satisfactoriness. It wass all

finished--flick! like that. It iss not always so--oah, no! I have known

cases where the doctor wass obliged to go beneath the gallows and pull

the prisoner's legs to ensure decease. Most disagreeable!"


"Wriggling about, eh? That's bad," said the superintendent.


"Ach, sir, it iss worse when they become refractory! One man, I recall,

clung to the bars of hiss cage when we went to take him out. You will

scarcely credit, sir, that it took six warders to dislodge him, three

pulling at each leg. We reasoned with him. "My dear fellow," we said,

"think of all the pain and trouble you are causing to us!" But no, he

would not listen! Ach, he wass very troublesome!"


I found that I was laughing quite loudly. Everyone was laughing. Even the

superintendent grinned in a tolerant way. "You'd better all come out and

have a drink," he said quite genially. "I've got a bottle of whisky in

the car. We could do with it."


We went through the big double gates of the prison, into the road.

"Pulling at his legs!" exclaimed a Burmese magistrate suddenly, and burst

into a loud chuckling. We all began laughing again. At that moment

Francis's anecdote seemed extraordinarily funny. We all had a drink

together, native and European alike, quite amicably. The dead man was a

hundred yards away.




















灰色的牆壁,但他的大腦仍然記得、預見、推理——

甚至推理水坑。他和我們是一群一起行走的人,

看到、聽到、感受到、理解同一個世界;兩分鐘後

,隨著一聲突然的響聲,我們中的一個人就消失了——失去了一個思想,

失去了一個世界。


絞刑架位於一個小院子裡,與監獄的主場地隔開

,院子裡長滿了高高的多刺的雜草。它是用磚砌成的

,像棚子的三面,上面鋪著木板,再上面有兩根

橫樑和一根橫桿,繩子懸垂著。絞刑官是一名

身穿白色監獄制服、 頭髮花白的 囚犯,他正在

絞刑架旁等候。當我們進去時,他卑躬屈膝地向我們致意。法蘭西斯一聲

令下,兩名獄卒更加緊緊地抓住了囚犯

,半推半拽地將他帶到絞刑架上,然後笨拙地扶著他爬上

梯子。然後,絞刑官爬上去,把繩子固定在

囚犯的脖子上。


我們站在五碼外等待。獄警們在

絞刑架周圍圍成一個圓圈。然後,當套索被固定住時,

囚犯開始向他的上帝哭喊。那是一聲高亢、反覆的

「拉姆!拉姆!拉姆!拉姆!」的呼喊,不像祈禱或求救那樣急切或恐懼

,而是穩定、有節奏的,幾乎就像鐘聲一樣。那隻狗

用嗚咽聲回應了這聲音。劊子手仍然站在

絞刑架上,拿出一個像麵粉袋一樣的小棉袋,罩

在囚犯的臉上。但被布料掩蓋的聲音仍然

不斷響起,一遍又一遍:「拉姆!拉姆!拉姆!拉姆!拉姆!」


劊子手爬下來,站好,握住槓桿。幾分鐘

似乎就過去了。囚犯持續不斷地發出低沉的哭喊

:「拉姆!拉姆!拉姆!」一刻也不動搖。警司

把頭埋在胸前,用棍子慢慢地戳著地面;

也許他正在數著囚犯的哭喊聲,以便給他們一個固定的數字——

五十個,或者一百個。整個人都變了臉色。印第安人

已經變得像變質的咖啡一樣灰白,其中有一兩把刺刀在

搖晃。我們看著站在懸崖邊、頭戴頭巾、身披鞭子的男人,聽著

他的哭喊聲——每一聲哭喊都意味著一秒的生命;我們所有人的心裡都有同樣的想法

:哦,快點殺了他,快點結束這一切,別再發出那可惡的

噪音了!


突然,警司下定了決心。他揚起頭,

迅速揮動著棍子。 「查洛!」他幾乎是兇猛地喊道。


一陣叮噹聲響起,隨後一片死寂。囚犯

消失了,繩子開始自我纏繞。我放開狗,

它立刻飛奔到絞刑架後面;但當它到達那裡時

,它突然停了下來,吠叫了幾聲,然後退到院子的一個角落裡,

站在雜草叢中,膽怯地望著我們。我們

繞著絞刑架走了一圈,檢查囚犯的屍體。他懸在空中,

腳趾直直地朝下,緩慢地旋轉著,像

石頭一樣死氣沉沉。


警司伸出棍子戳了戳那名警官的裸露屍體;它

輕微地擺動著。 「他沒事,」警司說。他

從絞刑架下退出來,深深呼出一口氣。他臉上憂鬱的

表情突然消失了。他看了

一眼手錶。 「八點零八分。好了,

感謝上帝,今天早上就到這裡了。」


獄警們卸下刺刀,列隊走開。那隻狗清醒過來,

意識到自己行為不當,便溜了出去跟在他們後面。我們走出

絞刑架場,經過關著囚犯的死囚牢房

,進入監獄的中央院。囚犯們在

手持警棍的獄警的指揮下,已經開始吃

早餐了。他們蹲成長長的一排,每人手裡拿著一個錫盤,

兩名獄警提著桶子四處走動,舀出米飯。

絞刑之後,這似乎是 多麼溫馨、歡樂的景象。

現在工作已經完成,我們感到如釋重負 。一個人會感到一種想唱歌、想

奔跑、想竊笑的衝動。突然,大家都開始興高采烈

地聊天。


走在我身旁的歐亞混血男孩朝我們來時的路點了點頭,

帶著會心的微笑:「先生,您知道嗎?我們的朋友(他指的是那個死者

),聽說他的上訴被駁回後,嚇得在

牢房的地板上撒尿。——先生,請拿一支我的香煙。你

不欣賞我的新銀煙盒似乎有笑了兩檔,但有什麼人笑的人,但有八檔



法蘭西斯從主管身邊走過,喋喋不休地說著話。 「嗯,

先生,一切麻煩事都圓滿解決了。一切都

結束了——輕彈!就像那樣。事情並不總是這樣——哦,不!我知道

有些案例,醫生不得不走到絞刑架下面,拉動

犯人的腿,以確保他死亡。真是令人不快!」


「扭來扭去,是嗎?這很糟糕,」警司說道。


「哎呀,先生,他們變得難以管教的時候,情況就更糟了!我記得有一個人,

當我們帶他出去的時候,他緊緊抓住籠子的欄桿。先生,您

大概不會相信,需要六名獄警才能把他拖走,

每人三人拉著他的腿。我們跟他講道理。 「我親愛的朋友,」我們說道,

「想想你給我們帶來多少痛苦和麻煩!」但他不

聽! 「啊,他真是麻煩!」


我發現自己笑得很大聲。大家都在笑。連

警司也寬容地笑了。 「你們最好都出來 喝一杯,」他非常和藹地說。 「我車裡

有一瓶威士忌 我們穿過監獄的大門,來到馬路上。 「拉他的腿! 「緬甸法官突然驚呼道,然後放聲 大笑。我們又都笑了起來。那一刻, 方濟各的故事顯得格外有趣。我們所有人,無論是當地人還是歐洲人,都相當友好地一起 喝了一杯 。死者離我們有一百碼遠。

喬治‧歐威爾最偉大的五篇散文:第五篇,《絞刑》

 George Orwell’s 5 greatest essays: No. 5, “A Hanging”


喬治‧歐威爾最偉大的五篇散文:第五篇,《絞刑》

George Orwell's essential humanity shone through his writing from the first.

George Orwell’s essential humanity shone through his writing from the first. (Randall Enos / Los Angeles Times)

By Michael Hiltzik

Nov. 4, 2013 5:32 PM PT



喬治‧歐威爾最偉大的五篇散文:第五篇,《絞刑》

喬治·奧威爾的本質人性從一開始就在他的作品中閃耀。

喬治·奧威爾的本質人性從一開始就在他的作品中閃耀。 (蘭德爾·伊諾斯/洛杉磯時報)

作者: 麥可‧希爾茨克

2013年11月4日下午5:32(太平洋時間)


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對於任何對左右翼政治以及最高層政治新聞感興趣的人來說,喬治·奧威爾的作品都是必不可少的。本週,正值他誕辰 110 週年之際,我們列出了他最偉大的五篇散文。


《絞刑》是歐威爾最早的散文之一,但已展現出他高超而細膩的寫作技巧。這篇作品於 1931 年以奧威爾的真名埃里克·布萊爾 (Eric Blair) 發表在約翰·米德爾頓·默里的文學雜誌《阿德爾菲》上,取材於他 1922 年至 1927 年擔任帝國警察的經歷;它是否報道了真實事件尚不確定,因為奧威爾本人有時稱其為“只是一個故事”。


在其寫作生涯的初期,奧威爾的作品就展現了他本質的人性和他表現細節的技巧——獄卒急於執行絞刑,一隻雜種狗闖進來試圖舔囚犯,被六個高大的武裝獄卒看守的“弱小”囚犯的滑稽形象。被判刑男子的姓名和罪行均未透露。


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文章中最著名的場景是囚犯突然側身避開路上的水坑。 「真奇怪,」奧威爾寫道,「直到那一刻,我才明白毀滅一個健康、神誌清醒的人意味著什麼。當我看到囚犯閃到一旁躲避水坑時,我才明白在生命正值高潮時結束生命是多麼神秘,多麼不可言喻的錯誤。這個人沒有死,他還活著,就像我們一樣。他已經失去了一個全身的器官都在運轉兩分鐘後,巨響了一個世界——我們中的一個世界就消失了一個世界。

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For anyone interested in the politics of left and right -- and in political journalism as it is practiced at the highest level, George Orwell’s works are indispensable. This week, in the year marking the 110th anniversary of his birth, we present a personal list of his five greatest essays.


“A Hanging” is one of Orwell’s earliest essays, but already a demonstration of his superb and subtle craftsmanship. The piece, published in 1931 in John Middleton Murry’s literary magazine the Adelphi under Orwell’s real name, Eric Blair, was drawn from his experiences as a member of the Imperial Police from 1922 to 1927; whether it reports an actual event is uncertain, for Orwell himself sometimes called it “just a story.”


At the outset of his writing career, Orwell’s work displays his essential humanity and his skill at the presentation of textured detail -- the impatience of the jailer to get the hanging done, the intrusion of a mongrel dog trying to lick the prisoner, the ludicrous image of the “puny” prisoner guarded by six towering armed warders. Neither the condemned man’s name nor his crime is specified.


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The most famous moment in the essay is the prisoner’s sudden sidestep to avoid a puddle in the path. “It is curious,” Orwell wrote, “but till that moment I had never realized what it means to destroy a healthy, conscious man. When I saw the prisoner step aside to avoid the puddle, I saw the mystery, the unspeakable wrongness, of cutting a life short when it is in full tide. This man was not dying, he was alive just as we were alive. All the organs of his body were working ... and in two minutes, with a sudden snap, one of us would be gone -- one mind less, one world less.”

中國在緬甸問題上發揮主導作用的能力日益增強。對抵抗力量來說,其影響是深遠的。


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中國電力 | 安全 | 東南亞

中國決定緬甸抵抗運動能走多遠

作者:Kyaw Htet Aung
2025年4月26日
中國決定緬甸抵抗運動能走多遠
2023 年 10 月 27 日,緬甸民族民主同盟軍 (MNDAA) 士兵在佔領位於撣邦北部馬格拉塔普山的緬甸軍事基地後,手持 MNDAA 旗幟合影。
圖片來源:Facebook/果敢
自2021年2月軍事政變以來,緬甸陷入了前所未有的混亂。該國在暴力鎮壓和全國各地基層抵抗的重壓下陷入分裂。在短短四年多的時間裡,全國各地出現了500多個新的武裝團體,進一步增強了已經長期存在的民族武裝組織(EAO)。最初只是零星的遊擊戰,現已升級為全面的多線衝突。軍政府武裝與各抵抗組織之間爆發了超過16,000次武裝衝突,這是東南亞近代史上最激烈的國內衝突之一。
2023年10月27日,緬甸迎來了重大轉折點,由若開軍(AA)、緬甸民族民主同盟軍(MNDAA)和德昂民族解放軍(TNLA)組成的三兄弟聯盟發起了1027行動。他們與其他抵抗力量聯手,對軍政府造成了沉重打擊,奪取了部分領土,並將軍方趕出了全國各地的關鍵據點。最具象徵意義的勝利可能是,緬甸民族民主同盟軍及其盟友佔領了位於撣邦北部臘戍的東北地區軍事指揮部,這是緬甸內戰現代史上前所未有的成就。
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另一方面,中國長期以來一直是緬甸政治和安全局勢中一個默默但強大的參與者,同時官方堅持「不干涉」政策。然而,自 2021 年政變以來,北京一直在重新調整這一方針——旨在保護其戰略投資免受不穩定因素的影響,同時密切關注其西南邊境的事態發展。在1027行動第二階段之後,中國作為調解人的角色明顯變得更加自信,甚至帶有強制性。中國傳統上被視為軍政府與邊境特別行動組織之間的中立調解者,但其最新一輪調解卻標誌著一個重大轉變 — — 不僅在風格上,而且在戰略意圖上。
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這一次,北京強力推動符合自身利益的決議。它試圖維持軍政府和抵抗力量之間現有的權力不平衡,確保沒有任何一個行為者能夠獲得足夠的力量來破壞中國在該地區的影響力。中國透過外交壓力和經濟激勵相結合的方式成功獲得了其想要的結果。 2025 年 4 月,佔領臘戍九個月後,緬甸民族民主同盟軍將該市交還給軍政府——如果沒有中國的干預,這一舉動是不可想像的。
這並不是一個孤立事件。它標誌著一種更廣泛的模式和現象的鞏固:中國在緬甸實際影響結果的能力日益增強。北京不僅越來越決定誰坐在談判桌上,而且決定誰能得到什麼樣的談判結果。對緬甸抵抗力量來說,其影響是深遠的。中國的強硬態度並不局限於軍事行動——它正在重塑政治格局本身。當中國主導決定緬甸的未來時,將產生三個關鍵後果。
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第一個重大意義是,中國正在積極限制緬甸抵抗軍追求軍事勝利的戰略上限。對於抵抗力量來說,最終戰略仍然很明確:透過武裝鬥爭瓦解軍政府,這一論點繼續主導著公眾話語和戰術規劃。然而,中國在撣邦北部所表現出來的強制性調解方式,卻巧妙地破壞了這個目標。儘管北京可能不會對每個落入抵抗力量手中的城鎮做出反應,但它已表現出在其核心利益受到威脅時進行幹預的意願。這傳遞了一個明確的訊息:在北京劃定界線之前,抵抗的程度是有限的。 
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重要的是,這不僅是中國站在軍政府或抵抗力量這邊的問題。相反,它反映了更廣泛的戰略考量 — — 在緬甸動蕩的權力格局中,這可以說是一種刻意的「地面平衡」行為。從北京的角度來看,政治上分裂的緬甸比領土上分裂的緬甸更容易管理。一個弱小、分裂但仍完整的國家更符合中國的長遠利益,使其能夠發揮影響力,而不必承擔國家崩潰或地區不穩定所帶來的風險。北京的理想狀態是緬甸夠弱小,可以輕易改變其政策,但又夠完整,可以服務中國的戰略利益。
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第二個關鍵含義是出現了一種“具有中國特色的衝突終止模式”,這可能成為緬甸的決定性參考點。多年來,西方捐助國和政府對緬甸和平進程投入了大量資金,支持停火監督、對話促進和體制機制建設。然而,其結果充其量也只是平平無奇,而且很少有持久的成果。相較之下,中國目前正在推行自己的模式,即積極調解和直接參與停火監督,在最近臘戍政權移交過程中發揮的作用就是一個例證。如果臘戍進程被證明是有效的,它將為緬甸未來衝突的管理樹立先例,並影響北京的戰略考量。 
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同時,中國在塑造緩和局勢方面日益佔據主導地位,尤其是在美國減少對緬甸多個領域組織的資助之後。此外,北京不僅對國內主要參與者擁有相當大的影響力,對泰國和馬來西亞等有影響力的東協成員國也擁有相當大的影響力——這種影響力不可避免地會影響每一個談判進程。然而,儘管中國可能有能力促進減少暴力,但它不太可能推動實現持久和平所必需的更深層的結構性改革。對北京來說,積極的和平——由正義、公平和長期政治解決方案定義——可能不符合其戰略利益,而且在當今緬甸的背景下,這似乎也不是一個務實的目標。
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最後,或許也是最令人不安的影響,涉及中國積極且日益直接地介入緬甸事務所帶來的更廣泛的地緣政治風險。目前,全球舞台上出現了兩種可能的走向:中美之間的「地緣政治忽視」和「地緣政治競爭」。這兩種情況都對緬甸的長期利益構成嚴重風險。 
在地緣政治被忽視的情況下,疲憊不堪的國際社會 — — 被其他地方的危機分散了注意力,並被國內事務所困擾 — — 可能會向中國讓步。包括緬甸近鄰在內的地區行為體可能優先考慮短期穩定和保護其戰略利益,而不是可持續的和平建設和民主治理。在這樣的背景下,中國將能夠更好地根據自身戰略利益引領緬甸的衝突後轉型,而不會對其所期望的結果提出任何反對意見。這種被動的默許——實際上讓北京塑造國家的未來——是地緣政治忽視的本質。 
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然而,另一種選擇可能更加危險。大國競爭再度抬頭,以戰略拒止、破壞穩定以及爭奪影響力和資源為特徵,可能使緬甸陷入更深的混亂。在這種情況下,該國將成為地緣政治競爭的舞台,而不是真正國際支持的對象。權力真空將會擴大,國家機構可能進一步崩潰,從武器販賣到毒品販賣等非法經濟活動將會在由此產生的不穩定中蓬勃發展。簡而言之,第二條道路可能是災難性的。無論是由於忽視或競爭,國際社會未能採取負責任的行動,都有可能使緬甸的未來不再是和平或繁榮,而是脆弱和被外國操縱。
緬甸已遠遠擺脫了 2021 年政變前所面臨的政治危機。該國目前陷入了一場曠日持久且複雜的國內衝突,軍政府和抵抗力量都各自為政,不肯妥協。同時,國際環境日益冷漠,受全球危機的干擾,不願進行有意義的參與。在此背景下,緬甸最終或許必須自己尋找擺脫衝突、分裂循環的出路。
英國殖民學者約翰·西德納姆·弗尼瓦爾曾警告說,「經過一段或多或少較長的無政府狀態之後,我們的後代可能會發現緬甸已成為中國的一個省」。在較為平靜的時期,這樣的聲明可能顯得有些誇張或過於危言聳聽。但在當前極度不穩定的情況下,弗尼瓦爾的話聽起來卻令人不安。儘管緬甸不太可能真正成為中國的一個省,但北京對緬甸政治和領土重組的影響力日益擴大是毋庸置疑的,而且越來越具有決定性。
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