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作者是《金融時報》的特約編輯，並撰寫 Chartbook 電子報。
在歷史的關鍵時刻，技術變革不僅能帶來經濟成長，還能鞏固或顛覆政治體制。
第一次世界大戰之後，福特主義不僅是一條生產線，它還提供了大眾富裕的新文化願景。
1970 年代和 1980 年代，微電子和電腦領域的革命標誌著蘇聯集團的終結。
2008年，新一代智慧型手機的問世和社群媒體的興起，大大緩解了金融危機帶來的衝擊。畢竟，如果資本主義為我們帶來了iPhone和Facebook，那它也不全然是壞事。
但這種敘事很容易轉變。傳送帶可以成為疏離的隱喻。數位平台可以成為兩極化和內戰的驅動力。
在我們當下，人工智慧的超大規模應用正蓬勃發展，而唐納德·川普也開始了第二個激進的總統任期。
評論員一致認為，短期來看，這種巧合有助於保護美國總統免受其一些功能失調的政策可能引發的反彈，尤其是來自強大的商業精英的反彈。
企業領導階層和投資者可能會被科技領域的大新聞分散注意力，從而忽略常規公司治理的崩潰。
就美國經濟而言，關稅和移民管制這兩大「弊端」被人工智慧繁榮這一「巨大利好」所抵銷。減稅和股市上漲的雙重利好讓精英階層感到欣慰。
但如果你深入了解，你會發現 Maga 與 AI 之間的平衡所帶來的穩定感其實非常不穩定。
如果川普放任自流的執政是美國社會和政治緊張局勢的產物，那麼「讓美國再次偉大」運動和人工智慧的巧合並不能緩解或減輕這些緊張局勢。
首先，要從普遍存在的國家衰落感說起——這正是美國精英焦慮的根源。拜登政府的因應之策是嚴密控制大型科技公司，限制高科技晶片出口。但這招致了晶片製造商的強烈不滿，反而刺激了中國採取各種巧妙的規避措施。川普政府似乎希望美國能夠透過科技擴散來佔據主導地位。但這往往會加劇衝擊，進一步強化多極格局。然後，
英偉達的黃仁勳告訴你，中國最終還是會贏，那接下來該怎麼辦呢？
在國內，川普政府和拜登政府一樣，公開宣稱的目標是重振美國工業基礎，恢復勞工階級和中產階級的生活穩定。但是，
這又如何與鼓勵矽谷斥資數千億美元用演算法取代大部分白領勞動力的做法相符呢？
這些演算法是一種顛覆性的文化技術。我們最大的希望是，它們能夠實現內生成長理論的願景，並大幅提升研發效率，從而加速以科學為導向的經濟和文化轉型。然而，在一個像川普2.0這樣充斥著蒙昧主義和後真相思想的政府領導下，人工智慧迎來了曙光，這不是一種莫大的諷刺嗎？
無論是JD Vance的新天主教傾向，或是Peter Thiel的怪誕佈道，都無法掩蓋歷史和哲學視野的矛盾之處。
當然，人工智慧或許被高估了，我們不該輕信炒作。但之後會發生什麼事？泡沫會破嗎？
正如吉塔·戈皮納特離開國際貨幣基金組織後指出的那樣，如果美國股市出現類似互聯網泡沫破裂的規模調整，將給美國投資者造成20萬億美元的損失，給世界其他地區造成15萬億美元的損失。這相當於美國GDP的70%和世界其他地區GDP的20%。這足以引發一場嚴重的經濟衰退。我們能想像川普政府在巨額赤字、聯準會政治化和國會僵局的情況下，會如何應對這種情況嗎？
那些仍然抱持著美國有朝一日會恢復理智想法的人，似乎希望出現一次恰到好處的崩盤：
規模要大，但又不能太大——足以消除人工智能的炒作和特朗普執政第一年的迷醉，但又不足以引發比我們正在經歷的更嚴重的憲政危機。
套用九月出版的一本聳人聽聞的人工智慧暢銷書的結尾語，「我真希望我是在誇大其詞」。但如果你希望美國恢復正常，那麼從現在的情況來看，如何才能實現這個目標並不明朗。
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以上皆非'24
4分鐘前
哎呀，振作起來！世界照樣運轉。一切都會好起來的。
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格莎
9分鐘前
涉及 MAGA 的穩定性只有在前面加上一個「-」號才有可能實現。
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東京來電
15分鐘前
只要銀行不參與其中（事後我們無法確定銀行是否會參與），世界就能應對“人工智慧崩潰”，就像網路泡沫破滅後實體經濟沒有遭受太大損失一樣。
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尤里·維齊泰
24分鐘前
文章寫得很好，宏觀視角也很出色。
在微觀層面，MAGA和人工智慧還有其他問題。例如，過去快速識別MAGA狂熱分子很容易：他們無法進行連貫的寫作。 “Borders”就是“Borders”，“Too”和“to”可以互換使用。 「Should of」、「irregardless」和「could care less」等字眼也常被濫用。這是因為作為一個群體，這些人通常不愛讀書。所以，你很快就能分辨出對方是誰，並採取相應的行動。而人工智慧讓MAGA的寫作者聽起來條理清晰、彬彬有禮，賦予他們的表達一種嚴肅的外衣，讓人誤以為對方是一位見多識廣、深思熟慮的人。
這是個實際存在的問題！
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事實邏輯
1小時前
作者用了多少人工智慧技術來撰寫這篇文章？如果你不理解目前這波人工智慧工具的意義，那麼你完全沒必要使用它們。你會落後於時代，但你並非必須訂閱任何現有的模型。
總之，作者的這句話徹底讓我對他失去了任何認真對待的機會：
關稅和打擊移民的弊端
非法移民就是非法的。如果你想讓它合法化，那就修改法律。否則，就執行你國家現有的邊境法律。
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胡言亂語
35 MINUTES AGO
In reply to FactnLogic
Most Illegal immigrants are actually semi-legal. They pay taxes, have US driving licenses, etc. etc. This is cheap labour.
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Multipass
22 MINUTES AGO
(Edited)
In reply to FactnLogic
Anyway, the author lost any chance of me taking him seriously with this statement:
bads” of tariffs and the crackdown on immigration
The author is simply highlighting the reality that illegal immigrants contribute to the economy and are a major source of cheap labour for US.
As investors, many of us foreign to the US, we benefit from cheap labour pumping our US investments a lot more than we do from immigration enforcement, that is an obvious fact. Reducing the pool of cheap labour will reduce corporate bottom lines, period.
It doesn’t have anything to do with the politics.
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Tazzyjoolz
1 HOUR AGO
Until AI has proved itself through application in a range of different industries, it will remain exactly what it currently is, a puffball which will disappear when the next best thing comes along.
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IVA
1 HOUR AGO
AI + CCP is stable.
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Section8
1 HOUR AGO
The worrying thing about AI is the capitalist greed that is driving it. Such revolutions are unfortunately never driven by altruism. Also, the character profile of some of the MAG7 and AI "giants" CEOs only leads to more concern. Do you really have chosen Zuck or Altman to decide the future of society? They're not the only ones - just the ones most off the rails.
The worrying thing about the current US administration is the current US administration. Between the enrichment focus of the Trump family, the billionaire bros, and the sycophants (hoping to drink at the money or power trough), no-one has the good of the common person at heart.
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Boulder One
1 HOUR AGO
(Edited)
In reply to Section8
You forgot to mention Musk. But I agree. Let’s stop glorifying these guys, who are experimenting on the rest of us and our children.
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Boulder One
1 HOUR AGO
(Edited)
Here is an unconventional political thought for the AI debate.
AI takes much too much power and the people, who are pushing this on us are greedy villains, who want to line their pockets by destroying our planet.
Since we only use 3% of our brains, let figure out how to use 80% of our brains, become our own versions of AI, and regulate the tech elite.
Maybe we are all getting tired of of the constant manipulation of our species for profit. We are not cattle and this game is getting old..
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jec
2 HOURS AGO
"Maga + AI is not a recipe for stability"
Blimey, you don't say :)
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Jonsdottir
3 HOURS AGO
Out of curiosity, I thought I'd have a little look at the value of shares in Duolingo since they declared themselves to be 'AI First' back in April 2025....
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/duol
...ah.
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P Martin
3 HOURS AGO
The premise here is that:
1.Trump actually does want to stabilise the working class economic situation
2.The AI fans want to assist humanity rather than chase a dream that reduces the need for humans
Of course the circles can’t be squared…except when you recognise the core of the alliance is between segments ultimately only concerned with the benefits to a white, Neo Christian, ultra wealthy exclusionary sect.
What is good for them is all that matters.
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George Kaplan
2 HOURS AGO
In reply to P Martin
I couldn't agree more. Strangely, political economy seems to be Tooze's blind spot.
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Hungry Brain
3 HOURS AGO
"But isn’t there a deep irony in an administration as obscurantist and post-truth as Trump 2.0 presiding over the dawn of artificial general intelligence?"
The lack of ethics and boundaries is actually what a lot of us have been warning against.
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So, it wasn't that easy
3 HOURS AGO
What is normal?
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Jonsdottir
3 HOURS AGO
Nothing to do with this article other than the AI theme, but any thoughts as to why Sarah O'Connor has now been placed behind the Premium Paywall?
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Johncy
3 HOURS AGO
In reply to Jonsdottir
Terminator?
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Jonsdottir
3 HOURS AGO
In reply to Johncy
Unlikely, seeing as that is fictional.
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chowchow Bubbles
3 HOURS AGO
There was so much that was stated from the past to suggest a technological inflection that made the article interesting to read … I think there may have been a simpler way to link and possibly to tell the story that our governing systems our broken (and this view depends if you are in top 1% or how near it you are or not) and that AI (or at least the current incarnation of AI automation with no regulatory guidance guises in a race with China) will add negatively to the existing problems of our collective society …. Wondering if I understood correctly❓ … 🤔
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Its Going To Get Worse
48 MINUTES AGO
(Edited)
In reply to chowchow Bubbles
Yes you understood perfectly and excellent comment.
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Boulder One
4 HOURS AGO
(Edited)
Consider that in the space of two years, AI may become obsolete and be replaced by computers made of human brain tissue or quantum enabling lasers.
Consider that power consumption, based on the new technology may be 10% or even 1% of AI’s power consumption per designated thought process.
What if the new data centers emerge in China, India or are perhaps equally distributed everywhere.
Of course, those who invest in AI will be put out of business. The entire “Big Guy” investment could be replaced by millions of “Small Guy” investments or even a huge “mega-powerful” state actor.
People like to talk about the size of US indebtedness, but what if we invested and additional 35 trillion dollars in something which quickly becomes obsolete or which utterly decimates our social fabric and human personalities in ways, which could never have been imagined.
And, when it comes to “Truth,” my assumption is that we may have already entered a “Post Truth” world, which might be a kind of media-driven LSD Trip, but also filled with a lot of weird ego agendas, which are buried in news articles, which are really advertisements.
We already know that the political world is being pushed forward by a lot of nut-case conspiracy theories and addictive disinformation.
And that brings up the “tip of the iceberg” addictive, drug-like, physiological component of all of this. What does something like Facebook do to emerging adolescent egos and personalities?
It’s going to be a strange ride for sure. Are we not just rats on an endless little dopamine treadmill trips.
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Its Going To Get Worse
3 HOURS AGO
In reply to Boulder One
You may be a rat on an endless little dopamine treadmill trip
but we are Global economists that are Lucid sentient thinking people
We know there going to be financial crises.
Politicians have allowed the wealthy to purloin the money..
By various measures onshore and offshore money laundering schemes.
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xxzz76
3 HOURS AGO
In reply to Boulder One
AI is turbocharged statistical methods.
Some of which have been around for hundreds of years.
It will no more become obsolete than zero - or the calculus.
Its use requires regulation 'tho.
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Helvetico
4 HOURS AGO
(Edited)
Whining and pining for the fake stability of the old days of Open Borders Neoliberalism is tiresome. Tooze certainly has no answers, other than maybe stick his head in the sand and hope AI goes away. People like him didn't bat an eye when 100's of millions of jobs were exported from the West to the Third World, hollowing out economies and creating an epidemic of deaths of despair. But now he whinges about "elites" (is he not one?) with bursting investment accounts (does he not have them, too?) ignoring the common man. And that common man is somehow a guy who wants even more migrants, legal and illegal, to flood his country, driving up housing prices and pushing down wages, phenomena that once again only benefit the rich.
Tooze is no more an advocate of the common man than Trump, just less entertaining.
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Abracadabra
2 HOURS AGO
In reply to Helvetico
No big answers in this short piece. But the warning not to be complacent is spot on.
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DUNJA
5 HOURS AGO
If AI doesn’t generate the returns its founders hope and promise the crash is going to be more than the dotcom crash. It’s going to cause an absolute market meltdown and a financial crisis. The amount of money going into all of these areas is absolutley off the scale.
The reverse is also true if the bet does pay off and AI works in eliminating the need for huge amounts of human labour - there is also going to be an enormous crash and unemployment and sub employment rise exponentially. Either way within next 4-5 years something is going to happen and it’s going to make 08 look small fry in comparison.
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Swede Wolf
3 HOURS AGO
In reply to DUNJA
Of course there will be a spectacular crasch. Where will the revenue stream, justifying current valuations, come from? Not from the people being made redundant I guess. And the affluent have already borrowed to hypercharge their investment in the AI bubble.
Every technological breakthrough is following a similar path. The first phase is filled with optimism and hybris. Then come the crasch to make valuations correspond to reality, and sometimes this overshoot on the downside (and that's when people like Warren Buffet see the opportunity to buy the best companies on the cheap). After that the valuations is determined by real profits and not wishful thinking.
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Huginn and Muninn
5 HOURS AGO
(Edited)
" After all, if capitalism gave us the iPhone and Facebook, it could not be all bad. "
True. Generation-wide mental health issues, cohorts of socially inept sociopaths, the industrial scale spread of "learned" ignorance and outright falsehoods galore, and their fuelling of 21st c. fascism are just minor inconveniences.
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WeAreGrey
4 HOURS AGO
(Edited)
In reply to Huginn and Muninn
Capitalism gave us the iPhone and Facebook, enabling better control of the population through mass histeria, division, bread and games. All helping to serve capitalism more, in the form of devaluing labour, and concentrating the remaining capital even more.
But yes, for the rich, it's not all that bad. Just at the cost of everybody else and their souls.
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p266
60 MINUTES AGO
In reply to Huginn and Muninn
It's far worse in most countries, just not so obvious. Speaking from experience.
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Reddle
57 MINUTES AGO
In reply to Huginn and Muninn
The above sentence looks at it from a more optimistic late 2000s/early-mid 2010s perspective. Back when banks were receiving most of the public's anger and tech companies were fooling people by saying that their platforms would expand our freedoms.
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Ragnar_Danneskjold
5 HOURS AGO
I never understand how you can build AI and wipe out all jobs with it in the hopes that this will create growth? there is not growth without a conscientious middle class.
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Smelly Trumps
5 HOURS AGO
In reply to Ragnar_Danneskjold
Stated like a true wage slave - as if employment is the only way to build wealth or have purpose!
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mailee
5 HOURS AGO
In reply to Smelly Trumps
But how will that wealth trickle down to the working and middle classes?
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Weekender 62
2 HOURS AGO
In reply to mailee
Foraging
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Ragnar_Danneskjold
5 HOURS AGO
In reply to Smelly Trumps
sure that, but do you want to live in a society where wealth creation through a normal job is ruled out from the beginning?
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xxzz76
3 HOURS AGO
In reply to Ragnar_Danneskjold
You can live a very good life without much wealth - it a good, guaranteed and life-long steady income that you need.
As with many Germans, who do not own their homes but have high incomes.
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Beobachter, der
4 HOURS AGO
In reply to Smelly Trumps
Those "wage slaves" fund nations and governments and their running through their income taxes. Not the companies and the billionaires.
But you obviously punch drunk on learned ignorance of a post-truth world.
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Jonsdottir
3 HOURS AGO
In reply to Smelly Trumps
Can you build wealth without someone's employment?
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xxzz76
3 HOURS AGO
In reply to Ragnar_Danneskjold
Growth needs investment.
That does not be necessarily come from the middle classes.
See China...
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Bluenose
5 HOURS AGO
Interesting article. Arguably MAGA (please capitalize) + anything beyond their own destruction is not a good thing.
Too deep a subject to bother with a long text, but does everyone notice that the current ‘crisis’ always the ‘worst crisis’? Frequently it is proclaimed ‘we’re doomed’ and yet…not quite. Arguably Trump’s low IQ, awful personality and slavish following - plus aftershocks when he dies - are a far greater short-term threat than AI.
AI is arguably dangerous, but I was listening this weekend to a group in a hotel lobby holding forth on the subject. An incidence arose of - tragically - a boy committing suicide ‘because AI chat’. Are people aware that many commit suicide because of humans in the dark corners of the internet encouraging them? If you search ‘thinking about suicide’ you will find a lot of homo sapiens with horrific responses. And a lot of good ones trying to discourage.
The steam engine, the telegraph, the internal combustion engine, automation, computers, the internet: so far we have survived. I bloody hate computers, but they are vital.
So maybe have a little hope: it is free and it keeps you warm.
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Adiaphoros
6 HOURS AGO
Great article. Thanks.
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wse, Sydney
7 HOURS AGO
MAGA will have a short half life.
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Cat bot
7 HOURS AGO
“American normality” happened precisely when in the last 300 years? Maybe the 1990s, briefly, but that was more due to global events than anything happening in Washington.
The US is a messy, chaotic, violent, sometimes warmongering, usually innovative experiment. It was never pretty.
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Ragnar_Danneskjold
6 HOURS AGO
In reply to Cat bot
maybe the 50s also
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Apples to apples
2 HOURS AGO
In reply to Ragnar_Danneskjold
The 50’s were a radical emergence of mobility and youthfulness and federal ambition along with the Korean War 1950-1953, much less staid in the US than is remembered.
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xxzz76
7 HOURS AGO
AI will yet further dramatically reduce the number of jobs in manufacturing.
What is is proportion of the retail cost of an iPhone that is devoted to assembly (in China/India)?
Less than 5%.
(Production of components requires PhD level designers - but a handful of staff are involved in their automated manufacturing).
As a proportion of tha value added chain,. manufacturing has been declining for many decades.
AI is accelerating this process.
Most of the manufacturing. jobs that Trump is hoping to repatriate to the US are rapidly disappearing - or morphing into far fewer highly skilled jobs that are well beyond the capacities of the Maga mob.
Trump's dream of bringing back an imagined 1950s America is complete fantasy and doomed to failure.
Let's hope the US starts to come back to its senses ..
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anganaca
6 HOURS AGO
In reply to xxzz76
indeed! there seems to be an inherent contradiction between the expectations of Maga people and Trump promises to them and the shredding of jobs AI will create. Income inequality and social polarization from the divergence of skills needed in this new economy will only grow bigger. These two dynamics cannot sit well together.
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My mate Dave said...
4 HOURS AGO
In reply to xxzz76
Exactly. It's the world imagined in Kurt Vonnegut's "Player Piano" playing out (pun somewhat intended).
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doc martin
7 HOURS AGO
We aren't the first species in the universe to develop AI. WE don't live in a star trek universe. Maybe because AI is the extinction event.
regardless, the evolution of intelligence itself is an extinction level event.
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SimonJB
7 HOURS AGO
Maga + AI is not a Recipe for Stability
Is stability what is needed right now Adam? China is facing huge domestic problems (lack of growth, youth unemployment, property collapse). Europe is in a proxy war with Russia - for Ukraine this is very much a real war. AI looks like it might be a tranformative technology - and it might affect jobs, especially for the young. That's a huge social change that somehow society will have tk adapt to.
"Cometh the hour, cometh the man"?
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Jonsdottir
3 HOURS AGO
In reply to SimonJB
A quote originating out of a game of cricket...
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Bingo69
7 HOURS AGO
A deep one! So unsettling though!
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Donna C
7 HOURS AGO
Hello, Back in August 2204 I suggested shorting AI stocks. I forgot; buying Put Options would work, too. Seriously, I do want to make two points. FIRST Point. it's my opinion that America's democracy doesn't need any more political messages from political parties or anyone. We need HUMAN messages 'cos AMERICA HAS LOST ITS SOUL. That's the Soul Biden was fighting for. HUMANITY IS the ONLY thing we ALL have in COMMON. Where'd it go ?? It's gotten so beyond nutty that we really need "Back to Basics" classes, across all media, to teach Americans WHAT HUMANITY IS AND HOW TO "SHARE" IT. Call me Crazy. But, You tell me, What Else is Going to Work at this point ?? This is not Rocket Science !!
SECOND Point. AI. Some things that don't bode well. (1) Right off. AI Firms are investing in other AI firms. No portfolio manager with their head screwed on straight would ever invest in a single industry. It's Common knowledge, Fin 101, the whole world knows your RISK skyrockets, if you don't Diversify your Portfolio.
(2) WORSE, each AI Technology Component, be it Chips, Cloud Computing, Algorithms, Data Centers, have serious flaws/points of Failure. They're events with high enough probabilities of occurring that can't be dismissed. Don't even talk about Crypto, BlockChain technology - Decentralized Finance, DeFi. (3) AI Crash ? I'm trying to Time the Market for a crash, but It's a real BEAR. : ) ...couldn't help it, sorry.
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sven.
7 HOURS AGO
(Edited)
That Trump presides over the dawn of AI is more symptom than irony. The power in automated speech being to create crowds of opinions, but as yet, without any understanding of causal coherence. This is the outcome of automated, high velocity "throw it and see what sticks" being the favoured political persuasion technique.
Then of course there is the challenge presented to rationality by some applications of nanotech as another cause of the philosophical incoherence of various leaders.
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Paul A. Myers
7 HOURS AGO
But if a return to American normality is what you are hoping for, it is not obvious how you get there from here.
Free and fair elections would work.
But the Supreme Court has been against free and fair elections for a generation. The Supreme Court is also against any Congressionally passed law that constrains presidential authority in any way. Goodbye Posse Comitatus law; hello ICE. The Venezuelans are a preview, not a sideshow.
When constitutionally sanctioned avenues for changing power are blocked, then the political power moves to the streets and revolution. The voter repression on election day next November will be relitigated starting the following day with a counter-revolution because democratic politics will have demonstrated its failure.
The 8 Democratic senators who caved have proved that Washington no longer works and that the reactionary autocracy now fundamentally allocates the resources, wealth, and income of the country. Washington only works for the superrich.
Just how much coup against the constitution do you need before you see the writing on the wall. The future is going to be written with blood in the streets -- just what the constitution was created for to avoid.
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Semi-retired
4 HOURS AGO
(Edited)
In reply to Paul A. Myers
I share your outrage but don't put as much faith in ''blood on the street''. There has been a lot of that in the US over the last 200 years and it didn't make much difference - repression has been stronger. Nor in the UK (I'm currently re-reading UK C18 and C19 history).
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RealityModeler
4 HOURS AGO
In reply to Paul A. Myers
The rise of the robots will ensure that the blood is only from the working and the professional former middle class.
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CaptainThunder
1 HOUR AGO
(Edited)
In reply to RealityModeler
Quite. Speaking of which:
But how does that square with encouraging Silicon Valley to bet hundreds of billions of dollars on replacing a large part of the white collar workforce with algorithms?
There's an old journo adage that if your headline is a question or you leave one hanging off the end of a para, the answer is usually "no". Or in this case, "it doesn't". Decimating the white-collar middle class as "efficiencies" is the unstated but pretty damn obvious aim.
...or at least that's the theory.
In practice, AI is still good at what it was always good at - analysing large datasets and spitting out the best preformatted responses it can. Or blending whatever it can scrape up from source material into slop and hoping the predictive response more or less matches what the client wanted. It's still not good at closing deals (unless they're very simple), looking for glitches, or interacting with the actual humans that want to send credit card or purchase-order details to make you money.
And they're really, really bad at handling "edge cases"/unusual situations, or identifying potential new sources of revenue or problems that might arise later.
So if management are trying to kill jobs with AI, there's a limit to how much they can do. But if your management want to expand what your current workforce can do, taking away the donkey work and letting those users do more valuable tasks requiring human insight, that's something it's much more suited to.
Though that particular message might not go down so well...
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Surfnm
7 MINUTES AGO
In reply to Paul A. Myers
When constitutionally sanctioned avenues for changing power are blocked, then the political power moves to the streets and revolution.
America is a wild complex place that historically defies easy categorization and attempts to control it. Politics, economics, and civil society are three broad tents where one can watch aspects of different trends and patterns as they play out over time. The current drama in the political tent may influence the events in the other two tents but it does not control them and it is but one tent out of three.
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Bbbbb12
8 HOURS AGO
(Edited)
Amazing that the Fed is using up all its tools before
1. AI comes true and destroys white collar jobs
Or
2. AI does not come true and there is a massive wealth destruction event
Oh well I suppose we could have a decade of sub zero interest rates or a Gen Z revolution. Either one would fix the problem
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xxzz76
3 HOURS AGO
In reply to Bbbbb12
AI is destroying white collar call centre jobs on a huge scale already.
(Not publicised, for obvious reasons - insider knowledge).
The UK has an estimated 800,000 call centre jobs.
AI is likely to cull 30% of them.
That means 240,000 fewer jobs.
Nearly a quarter of a million jobs gone - in one sector alone.
Frightening, to say the least.
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Admiral Chris
8 HOURS AGO
I think you mean Vance's Paleo- Catholicism, not neo
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AI Generated Comment
2 HOURS AGO
In reply to Admiral Chris
Exactly
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David Hume
1 HOUR AGO
In reply to Admiral Chris
Postliberalism
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Gottgruss
8 HOURS AGO
Interesting read, thought provoking, a troubling start to my day… thanks Mr Tooze.
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Munk
8 HOURS AGO
In reply to Gottgruss
Combines nicely with today’s article “Investor angst over Big Tech’s AI spending spills into bond market”
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Fair capitalist
9 HOURS AGO
Great article, and a nice, albeit unsettling, summary of the times.
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Gobsmacked old man
8 HOURS AGO
In reply to Fair capitalist
Yes!
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CaptainThunder
54 MINUTES AGO
(Edited)
In reply to Fair capitalist
Came here to say that, and just add one thing...
How do we imagine that the Trump administration, with a gaping deficit, a politicised Fed and a deadlocked Congress, would react to that?
...there's something that needs expanding out of that.
The senior members of the Trump admin are hand-picked for loyalty and obedience. Independence, smarts, and quick thinking are not in their wheelhouse. During Trump 1.0, there were quite a number of clowns in the circus but some actual talents too. Jim Mattis and Mark Milley thankfully kept any fat fingers off the big boom buttons: Alex Azar and Rob Redfield alongside the much-maligned Fauci at Health and CDC: and while I loathe Mnuchin for multiple different reasons, he was at least reasonably sane and kept Navarro on a shorter leash.
This time around... there are. no. adults. in. the. room.
None.*
None of this lot have the chops to deal with even a small crisis, let alone work together to do so. Hegseth is doing lethal "firework shows" while insulting combat-tested officers: FDR's brainworm is rapidly dismantling DoH: Navarro and charlatans of every stripe have a hall pass to the Oval Office…
…and Bessent has let an a number of colossal bubbles inflate (not just AI, credit markets too), with no visible attempt at restraint or enforcing due diligence.
If that bubble bursts (still an if, but the vibe shift has been rather noticeable lately), it'll only directly affect a more limited sector than 2000 or 2008. But with so much market concentration and now so much debt, a lot more investors and pensioners will get hit than in 2000.
*Technically Stephen Miller may be. I'm less familiar with his species, and I'd have to check in the hive he's been building under the old Rose Garden to see what their gestation lifecycle's like. Still doesn't behave like an adult human, though, and if I was his Overlord I'd have him fed to the hatchery for bringing my invasion force into disrepute. Call that a disguise? Frell me dead, c'mon, man...
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