書評：軍事無能的心理學－保羅‧克魯曼

保羅‧克魯曼

在 Substack 上聆聽無幹擾的音樂



軍事無能的心理學
伊朗戰爭是如何失敗的
保羅‧克魯曼
2026年4月1日
文字稿

所以，世界最強大的軍事強國向一個四流國家發動了戰爭，這個國家的軍費開支在我們看來簡直微不足道。結果，我們輸了。

大家好，我是保羅·克魯格曼，給大家帶來一條深夜（或者說晚間）新聞更新，我通常不會這樣做，但我想在明天新聞發生什麼之前把這條消息發出來，誰知道會發生什麼呢。

今天是星期二。股市暴漲，原油期貨價格暴跌，這一切都源自於一個令人振奮的消息：至少根據川普的「真相社交」（Truth Social）帳號來看，美國似乎正在投降。川普在「真相社交」上發文稱，我們不需要開放霍爾木茲海峽。如果歐洲人認為他們需要，那就讓他們自己去開放吧。這取決於他們。這真是令人匪夷所思。

當然，認為這件事只對歐洲人重要，對我們無關緊要的想法是完全錯誤的。這一點我很快會在Substack上發文討論。但這其實是一種認罪。雖然它被包裝成“我們贏了，現在讓別人來收拾殘局吧”，但實際上它承認的是，我們輸了。我們做不到。

我們到底是怎麼做到的？我的意思是，客觀事實是，這根本不可能發生……或許根本就不可行。我們沒有與伊朗開戰是有原因的，尤其是我們沒有選擇那種對伊朗政權構成生存威脅的戰爭方式，以免他們肆無忌憚地製造破壞，因為另一種結果就是他們自身滅亡。但是，任何哪怕只思考過幾分鐘的人，任何了解內情的人，特別是任何關注過烏克蘭四年戰爭的人……我們都對現代戰爭的本質有所了解，也知道擁有常規優勢兵力的國家根本無法避免遭受無人機和導彈的重創。所以，這完全是愚蠢至極，簡直難以置信。

我們是怎麼得出這個結論的呢？嗯，彭博社刊登了托賓·哈肖的一篇非常精彩的文章，我基本上只是在他的文章基礎上做了些補充，但我認為這篇文章值得更廣泛地傳播。他重新提起了一本我早已遺忘的書，諾曼·迪克森1976年出版的《軍事無能心理學》。這本書雖然主要關注英國，但其中的教訓仍然適用；迪克森研究了英國歷史上那些重大的軍事災難。

你或許會認為導致糟糕決策的原因有很多，但他實際上指出，其中存在著一貫的模式。問題在於，軍事領導人或軍事決策者大多有兩個共同點。首先，他們抱著一種落後、過時的觀念，認為戰爭完全取決於武力而非智慧，而這種觀念早已過時。其次，他認為這些人普遍反智、反教育。

所以從某種意義上來說，一切都關乎肌肉，別跟我扯什麼自以為是的知識分子來指手畫腳，告訴我我哪裡做錯了。這段話對皮特·赫格塞斯的刻畫精準得令人難以置信，甚至連一些看似微不足道的細節都考慮到了。肌肉基督教是迪克森分析的那些糟糕的英國軍事領導人的典型特徵之一。事情就是這樣。

這並非關乎具體的錯誤判斷，某種程度上也並非關乎案件的具體細節。而是我們被那些以典型方式展現糟糕軍事決策的人引入了戰爭。歸根究底，他們信奉蠻力、強硬和肌肉——在無人機戰爭時代，肌肉竟然如此重要！ ——並且憎恨知識分子，憎恨學習。

真正讓我感到震驚的是，在一場決定勝負的關鍵在於對所作所為有一定的理性理解的戰爭中，伊朗這個基本上想要恢復中世紀的神權政權，竟然在很大程度上做對了。

而曾經是世界科學思想中心的地方──至少在現任政府上台前是這樣──卻徹底錯了。這太丟臉了，太糟糕了。而且，你知道，我們所有人都要為這場慘敗付出代價，而這種代價可能要持續我們一輩子。

祝您晚安。

4,005 個贊
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史蒂夫·布蘭特
4月1日

川普把世界搞得一團糟，卻指望別人收拾殘局。這就是他的人生寫照……把自己的事業和個人生活搞得一團糟……然後讓銀行和/或邁克爾·科恩（以及之前的羅伊·科恩）替他收拾殘局。美國需要好好“醒醒”，不能再讓罪犯/騙子掌握權力了。看來這即將發生。我只希望我們能挺過這一關，吸取教訓。

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卡雷爾·特里普
4月1日

馬丁·沃爾夫在今天（4月1日）的《金融時報》上提出了一個令人沮喪但卻不無道理的觀點：「現在更清楚的是……美國已不再是可信的世界領導者。如果它能兩次選舉這個人，那就說明它已經徹底迷失了方向。為什麼它不選一個更糟糕的人只是這樣的國家，根本無法提供可靠的全球霸權。

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史蒂夫·布蘭特
4月1日

我同意馬丁·沃爾夫的評價。 Belle of the Ranch 在 3 月 31 日發布了一段視頻，講述了歐洲各國如何一個接一個地切斷與美國的聯繫。成為美國的盟友正被掃進歷史的垃圾堆……這真是令人難以置信的悲劇……

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yA2qxQ_HPug

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伊麗莎白·克勞福德
4月1日

這話說得太對了，看得我都想哭了。美國治下的和平時期遠非完美，但人們常說，直到失去才懂得珍惜，不是嗎？

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克魯曼·範
4月1日

那些經濟拮据的拉丁裔和其他群體對這位曾34次被定罪的重罪犯犯了錯誤。他們不會再犯同樣的錯誤了。

英國和歐洲左翼中的許多（年長的）人士對美國在二戰期間拯救歐洲，然後在戰後竟敢領導新的世界秩序感到不滿。

如果你開始對英國左翼/溫和派批評美國人過於認真，那就看看英國左翼掌權後表現得多糟糕。史塔默首相在工黨下台幾十年後，卻因為醜聞和削減開支而徹底搞砸了。英國人居然還說美國人不可靠，這簡直太離譜了。

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個人發展計劃
4月1日

如果你認為史塔默代表了英國左翼/溫和派的立場，那你就犯了一個嚴重的概念錯誤。從任何現實的角度來看，代表左翼/溫和立場的應該是綠黨。工黨現在只是新自由主義謬論中相對不那麼愚蠢（其實也沒好到哪裡去）的政黨。正如我們英國人悲哀地意識到的那樣，他們短期內不會來救場。話雖如此，與保守黨相比，他們的表現還不錯——而且僅僅是與保守黨相比。話又說回來，即使是停擺的鐘一天也能準一次……此外，將斯塔默的愚蠢與川普的愚蠢相提並論，更是完全是另一個範疇的問題。史塔默是個白痴，但他知道什麼時候該躲雨。而川普則乾脆否認下雨。

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弗恩
4月14日

競選議員的全部意義就在於獲得執政的機會，而絕不能因為執政稍有困難就拿自己跟上一屆政府比較。但工黨卻忘了這一點，只會沒完沒了地空談，毫無建設性行動。他們消失的速度會比保守黨快得多。

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彼得·伯內特
4月1日
已編輯

我年紀夠大，清楚地記得我父親那一代非常保守的英國人——他們抵制了看似壓倒性的納粹物質力量——對美國解決所有問題的標準方法——砸錢、砸物資、砸人……然後事後再考慮——是多麼的批判。

感謝老天讓我們擁有像巴頓和麥考利夫這樣的將軍！

現在情況可能已經改變，但在二戰和戰後最初幾十年裡，許多物資規劃都是龜兔賽跑，穩紮穩打、有條不紊的烏龜比那些總是過於急躁、判斷力受損，且從不停下來評估形勢的人更有意義…

職業策略家們……至今仍以歌利亞為榜樣……鄙視那個幾乎赤裸裸、手持彈弓的少年……

換句話說，根本沒有戰略家。戰略制定權落到了像表面上較弱的烏克蘭人那樣的人手中——他們依靠的是智慧和勇氣，而不是被濫用的物質力量……以及絕對的人數優勢。更糟的是，戰略制定權落到了紀律嚴明、冷酷無情、狂熱的伊斯蘭主義者手中……這些人著眼於中長期，研究局勢，做好充分準備，並且清楚地知道自己在做什麼……而那些騙子般的誤導者卻無法預見自己行為的後果……他們正在破壞自己日益脆弱的製度，並葬送人民的未來。

如今，世界正面臨著物質和軍事力量帶來的後果，遠遠超出了希特勒、墨索里尼和東條英機的夢想……而這些力量卻掌握在連二都數不清的人手中……更別說三了。

*

哦，如果你想研究奧地利、德國、法國、俄國這些國家政治和軍事無能的組合，不妨讀讀芭芭拉·塔奇曼1962年的傑作《八月炮火》……書中講述了歐洲乃至世界如何陷入長達三十多年的戰爭，以及最終以失敗告終的和平協議——凡爾賽條約和特里亞農條約——其後果至今仍影響著我們。福煦元帥敏銳地指出，凡爾賽條約根本沒有簽署任何真正的條約……那所謂的「條約」不過是一份為期二十年的停戰協定。

人們不再讀幾十年前出版的書了。他們真是愚蠢。我仍然想（但至今未能如願）找到菲利普·博比特的《阿喀琉斯之盾》和《恐怖與同意》，這兩本書或許——僅僅是或許——能提供一些有用的見解，而這些見解在之後幾乎所有的西方出版物中似乎都缺失了。

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愛德華·奧普頓
4月5日

如果您仍然想要菲利普·博比特的書籍，請透過以下電子郵件地址與我聯繫。

或許我能幫上忙。

eo1@gmail.com

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弗恩
4月14日

史塔默和李維斯完全不懂世事，因為他們本質上就是公務員，對結果漠不關心，只要能給他們的客戶群源源不斷地徵收企業稅，他們就會死守程序……而且他們和川普一樣，都是些沒膽的蠢貨。

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雷克斯·佩奇（左岸）
4月1日

即便我們僥倖活下來，也吸取不了教訓。那7700萬投票給川普的蠢貨依然會和我們在一起。這個問題根本無法解決。

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史蒂夫·布蘭特
4月1日

對於如何解決那7700萬人的問題，我建議借鏡發展理論先驅R·巴克敏斯特·富勒博士的理論。他曾說：「要改變現有的體系，不要與它對抗，而是設計一個更好的體系，使現有的體係過時。」我們需要關注的是我們當中近3億心理健康的人，他們渴望一個基於合作與愛（而非統治與仇恨）的更美好的未來。透過發起一場自下而上的文化革命（從地方城市層面開始……各個城市發布宣言，表明他們希望美國的未來建立在這些促進和平的文化價值觀之上），我們可以讓那些憤怒的人繼續他們的憤怒……而我們則可以繼續前進，無需理會他們。他們最終會加入我們（也可能不會）。但我們的人數遠遠超過他們。順便一提，我正在透過位於俄克拉荷馬州斯特勞德小鎮的「66號公路美國精神博物館」來推進這項自下而上的計畫。我將於4月22日至26日在伊利諾伊州卡本代爾市南伊利諾伊大學舉行的富勒未來節上大力倡導這項計劃。誠摯邀請您屆時與我一同參與。受巴克敏斯特·富勒思想啟發的全球社群將共同迎接「設計一個更完善的系統，使現有系統過時」的挑戰。

http://www.buckminsterfuller.com

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哈維·克拉維茨
4月1日

我多年來一直是富勒的忠實擁躉。我曾完整地聆聽他著名的馬拉松式講座——那些長達數小時、內容豐富、環環相扣的精彩演講，需要耐心才能領略其精妙之處。我一直認為，他的思想超前於時代一百年。

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史蒂夫·布蘭特
4月1日

得知您是富勒的粉絲，甚至還聽過他的講座，我感到非常高興！ 1983年6月，我參加了他在紐約舉辦的「誠信日」活動…那是他去世前最後幾場講座之一。 1995年，我與他的女兒阿萊格拉成為了朋友，我們一直保持著友誼，直到她去世。真希望您能和我一起參加富勒未來節！如果您無法親臨現場，我誠摯地邀請您關注我將在大會上發布的報道。或許您會從中獲得一些啟發，並決定支持其中的一些內容。最後，先奉上兩分鐘富勒關於全球經濟學的演講…

https://youtu.be/LQ3DXDONKmQ?si=IBj7a9f2G9Untdpj

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哈維·克拉維茨
4月2日

富勒，你說太早了。

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史蒂夫·布蘭特
4月2日

我同意，在他預言的真相尚未被世人接受之前，他的觀點是正確的。但我相信，如今我們已經有證據表明，如果不改變方向，世界正走向懸崖。對我而言，這意味著他的觀點最終成為了「一個時機成熟的想法」。讓我們拭目以待…

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伊麗莎白·克勞福德
4月1日

史蒂夫·布蘭特，謝謝你的來信。目前最大的障礙是民主黨全國委員會放棄了所有責任，而建立一套重塑美國的架構需要數年時間。當然，共和黨人當初也是從底層做起，花了四十年才走到今天這一步。

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史蒂夫·布蘭特
4月1日

既然您提到共和黨花了40年時間幾乎徹底摧毀了憲法（包括總統在任期間的任何行為都不受法律制裁），我建議您了解比爾·克林頓總統的可持續發展委員會的工作。請參閱以下連結。該委員會的工作始於1993年，最終報告——《永續美國》——旨在透過大規模的教育活動逐步改變美國社會。 2000年，阿爾·戈爾不敢以環保主義者的身份參選，這也是這項醞釀多年的計畫最終未能付諸實施的原因之一。

@Heather Cox Richardson @Ruth Ben-Ghiat @Anne Applebaum @Katie Couric @Dan Rather @Timothy Snyder

https://clintonwhitehouse4.archives.gov/PCSD/Publications/index.html

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洛伊斯·W·哈爾伯特
4月1日

克魯曼先生，演講很精彩。

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馬克·麥金泰爾
4月1日
已編輯

這不是我的戰爭，甚至不是我們的戰爭。這是川普選擇的戰爭，是由像內塔尼亞胡這樣的伊朗戰爭鷹派發動的，他們為此已經奔走了幾十年。

現在川普說，無論是否與伊朗達成協議，美國都將在幾週內撤出中東。川普從未就這場戰爭提出任何合理的理由，而現在他似乎準備帶著一團糟離開中東，讓我們其他人承擔更高的物價，而他自己卻和他的億萬富翁朋友們一起打高爾夫球。

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南希·漢密爾頓
4月1日

只有當我們的軍隊撤出中東時，我才會相信他會下台！

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史蒂夫·布蘭特
4月1日

我同意。永遠不要相信川普說的話，要看他做了什麼！

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馬克·西格爾
4月1日

我今天早上在那篇文章下的評論裡幾乎表達了同樣的意思，那條評論不知怎麼被刪了，不過我已經恢復了。你希望人們能學到教訓。而我在上面的評論裡，問的是人們是否真的能學到教訓。這假設人們有足夠的謙遜和能力去「吸取教訓」。在真正重要的地方，這兩種特質真的存在嗎？我們拭目以待…

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史蒂夫·布蘭特
4月1日

我寄望於我們當中有足夠多的人相信“持續學習和進步”，而不是那些無知幼稚到不懂得這種生活方式價值的人，能夠帶領美國走出這場危機。我正在盡我所能，透過位於俄克拉荷馬州斯特勞德的66號公路美國精神博物館，以及在4月22日至26日於伊利諾伊州卡本代爾市南伊利諾伊大學舉行的富勒未來節上發表演講，來接觸那些具有學習精神的人們。 （請參閱下方連結）

http://www.buckminsterfuller.com

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喬恩·哈里森
4月1日

評論不錯，但別指望這能起到警醒作用。如果1月6日都沒能發揮作用，真不知道什麼才能奏效。除非他執政時期重現胡佛時代的混亂局面，否則那些投票給他的蠢貨們恐怕難以醒悟。當然，這種情況也不是完全不可能。

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史蒂夫·布蘭特
4月1日

我不指望發生什麼不好的事情來緩解我們的問題……儘管我相信，比1月6日更大的衝擊即將到來（更像是大蕭條時期的情況）。

我希望人們能夠聽到呼籲，在即將崩潰的過去的一切廢墟上，建立一個更美好的世界。

恐懼只是改變的動力之一，遠大的願景也是。我將於4月22日至26日在伊利諾州卡本代爾市南伊利諾大學舉行的富勒未來節上發表演講。屆時，受巴克敏斯特·富勒思想啟發的全球人士將齊聚一堂，探討我們能否找到擺脫這場危機的出路，並將之付諸實踐。更多資訊請點擊以下連結…

http://www.buckminsterfuller.com

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喬恩·哈里森
4月1日

我們的問題已經無法解決。很可能會發生不好的事情，但這並不能「解決我們的問題」。

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史蒂夫·布蘭特
4月1日

我聽出了你的悲觀情緒。很遺憾你不熟悉「鳳凰涅槃」的比喻。新的事物總是從舊的事物中誕生。如果世事低谷時仍有智者存在，那麼新的事物也可能會更好。堅持下去。

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喬恩·哈里森
4月2日

別難過，我知道鳳凰涅槃的意義。我仍然認為美國最大的問題是無法解決的。我沒說這意味著世界末日。雅典和羅馬也曾經有過無法解決自身問題的時候；這種情況最終會發生在每個民族和每個文明身上。

堅持住？我只是旁觀者。就我而言，我是個現實主義者，而不是悲觀主義者。

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保羅安德森
4月1日

ETTD

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@shamrock1101
4月4日

太棒了！ 「我比所有將軍都聰明」這句話，難道沒有起到警醒作用嗎？赫格塞斯幾乎解雇了所有將軍。我想他還沒解僱所有海軍上將吧！我倒想看看所有支持他的國會議員都站起來，解釋一下他們的投票。或許所有投票讓這些無能之輩掌權、讓川普繼續執政的國會議員，都應該背著「懦夫」的大牌子，在國會大廈裡遊行示威。他們簡直是這個他們聲稱深愛的國家的恥辱。

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蒂莫西·蔡斯
4月2日

他的一生？你忘了那些腐敗，尤其是他對絕對權力的追求、他似乎永無止境的貪污、洗錢、愛潑斯坦事件（不管是什麼）、他用金勺子撈錢、不忠、暴躁易怒、幼稚無禮，以及最嚴重的敲詐勒索。在這些罪行中，我特別要強調這三點：貪污、敲詐勒索和對無限權力的追求，其程度在我國歷史上前所未有，因為它們正是他總統任期的標誌。

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來自緬因州的艾比
4月1日

因為他一生中一直被人們縱容，而沒有受到任何懲罰！

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哈維·克拉維茨
4月1日
已編輯

評論精彩。

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AJ Jarnes Randall
4月1日

Really enlightening. Thanks!

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Steve Brant
4月1日

You’re welcome. I’m happy you like what I wrote.

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Vicente Vargas
4月1日

“Clean up on ailse 5”

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Stephen Schiff
4月1日

There's a common description of Pete Hegseth and Junior Kennedy that is due to Wolfgang Pauli: Not even wrong.

For those who wish to delve deeper into the pathology of most military thinking (sic) I recommend Lewis Mumford, The Myth of the Machine: The Pentagon of Power.

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Steve Brant
4月1日

Thanks for the book recommendation.

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Laurie
4月2日

Happened in 2008 as well after GWBush went to war and cut taxes and after Reagan(?)stopped regulating banks in the 1970s

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WC
4月1日

Thousands of people are dead. Millions around the world are disrupted by fuel shortages. All because of this guy's impulsive, short-term thinking.

He was asked about the war on Air Force One and started showing pictures of his ballroom.

This is so exhausting.

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Acela
4月1日
Edited

And Trump LITERALLY tells the rest of the world: “Go get your own oil!” – even though he can’t figure out how to get it out, so how could they?

Walk away and blame them for not participating in the mess that he created.

Translation: “I broke it, you fix it ...goodbye.”

Meanwhile, Iran: An even more hardline regime than before, with plenty of missiles and drones left. And probably more determined than ever to develop nuclear weapons so that they get left alone like North Korea.

What a piece of …work.

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WC
4月1日
Edited

"I broke it, you fix it" is so appropriate for him. Or he "fixes" something he broke and takes credit for it.

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Acela
4月1日

Manic Macho Man Hegseth too… Here is the article Prof. Krugman references:

Hegseth’s Culture Wars Are Inviting a Military Disaster

Tobin Harshaw

March 31, 2026

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-opinion-hegseth-culture-wars-are-inviting-military-disaster/

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CalamityJane
4月1日

Thank you for posting.

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andré
4月1日

That would be "partially fixes" at best

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Peter Liepmann
4月1日

Leaving a mess behind...after he stripped all the assets, is how he rolls.

His standard practice- get small contractors to do work, then not pay them.

https://www.cnn.com/2016/09/13/politics/trump-small-business-owners

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Gail Stewart-Iles
4月1日

His stiffing of the small contractors is common knowledge, but still 38% stick by him.

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Sharon
4月1日

The only thing I can say is it's better than the alternative, which is staying in a quagmire that would only get worse.

We'll see what he actually does. He said 2-3 weeks. How many times have we heard that the only thing that matters is who talked to him last?

I do think Suzie Wiles is telling him that the war/ excursion isn't playing well at home. It will be inconvenient to have a big turnover in Congress. People don't like the rising gas prices.

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Susie Mortimore
4月1日

Yes it is. Imagine being the parents of the service personnel being sent to the middle east, or the parents of the children killed in the school(s) or the parents of the journalist just kidnapped in Baghdad. Or any of the innocent population of Gaza, the Lebanon and Iran. Their lives and the lives of their children are dependent on the whims of this utter fuckwit of a so called president. And millions of US citizens voted for him, more than once, when it was plain what he was. Disgusting.

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Gina Russo
4月1日

Don’t forget about Netanyahu’s input.

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DonnaInPa
4月1日

I just reminded my husband of that this morning. He is the one (this time) who ”whispered in Trump's ear” about this manufactured and now worldwide catastrophe.

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Harriet Pashman
4月1日

The problem is Trump’s lemmings think he alone makes Ivory soap float.

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Laurie
4月2日

33%approval and falling. When will, the republicans impeach?

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Henry
4月1日

His legacy will be housewrecks and craters.

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JennSH from NC
4月1日

Thousands of people are dead because of Donald Trump’s and Pete Hegseth’s stupidity.

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Jean(Muriel)
4月1日

He has not got “short term thinking”. he was picked by Miller plus the gang of greed because he can’t think. He responds like a thermometer . Suck on it and he’ll heat up!

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David Ferris
4月1日
Edited

A silver lining if there is any has been pointed out by Bill McKibben, which is that this debacle will likely be good incentive to move toward renewables and away from fossil fuels. I’m curious about how the broader political economy might support or undermine that thesis. Of course, either way, we will still need to organize for collective capacity, political will, and power to see it through.

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D Epp
4月1日

In the 1970s the factories cranked out small cars. The 'big' cars at that time were nowhere near the size of today's SUVs. It's time for another reduction.

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ault
4月1日

Small cars have been available over the last 50 years. The prevalence of SUVs is simply a manifestation of the collective stupidity/ignorance of the Homo sapien population. Very much like Trump himself.

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Elizabeth Crawford
4月1日

If everyone wants huge SUVs, why do they have to advertise them so heavily?? They make SUVs because the profit margin is so much wider on them. It’s true that some people are more susceptible to ads than others. We need to work on everyone’s self-esteem and judgement.

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GabrielM
4月1日

And what a galling legacy for Trump--as the "windmill"-hating moron who inadvertently accelerated the race to energy security (and net zero) via sustainables, due to repercussions of his appalling decision to wage war. An especially ironic law of unintended consequences.

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Peter Liepmann
4月1日

THAT will take Regime Change here in the USA, but I'm hopeful for it. Flipping the House and a couple of Senate seats, plus more flagrant illegal insanity by the Felon-in-Chief could yield a Dem house speaker and impeachment of Trump & Vance.

Are there enough 'Republicans' in the Senate with either sense or patriotism?

I don't know. But we can hope.

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D Epp
4月1日

Well, then, don't just aim for "a couple of Senate seats" -- go for as many as possible. Contact like-minded people in other states and get as big a Dem senate as possible.

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Robert Manz
4月1日

I don’t know. We’re going to have ICE checking proof of citizenship at the midterms.

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Elizabeth Crawford
4月1日

Robert Manz, no we aren’t! Most of the states won’t allow it. And besides, the way they have “proof” defined would cut out a lot of their people.

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Laurie
4月2日

33% approval and falling. Please bring impeachment soon!

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Cornelius
4月1日

Amazing. I thought that lesson had been learned a long time ago in Afghanistan. All fuel had to be transported through bandit infested territory, who consequently had to be bribed to allow the fuel to get through. Part of the solution: solar panels.

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Jeff Luth
4月1日

Who knew Trump would put a huge tax on oil.

Although the tax revenue is going to Russia and big oil instead of the us treasury.

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Stephen Bosch
4月1日

This, apart from the obvious damage to their countries and reputations as a safe place to do business, is why the Gulf states are quietly furious about this: it will turbocharge the energy transition and the exodus away from their number one product.

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George Patterson
4月1日

I'm sure Bill is correct, but I don't think the U.S. will move that way.

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GabrielM
4月1日
Edited

The US is already moving that way, despite Trump. Not everyone is as stupid as he is.

But the consequences of his stupidity in attacking Iran--in closure of the Strait of Hormuz--will incite even more people to seek energy security via sustainables: not just in the US, but around the world...

I am a shareholder in the Kirk Hill Windfarm Cooperative whose eight wind turbines so infuriate Trump, because they spoil his view from his Turnberry golf course in Scotland.

Offending Trump in this way gives me extra pleasure (beyond my green electricity supply) every time I think about it...

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David Ferris
4月1日

Other countries will, which is necessary to curb global emissions.

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Tammy Mackinnon
4月1日

You would think.

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CJ in SF
4月1日

To paraphrase the Vietnam exit plan :

Declare stupidity and get out.

Unfortunately the problem is that stupidity never cleans up after itself.

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George Patterson
4月1日

That's true, but if we get out, the adults can start the clean up process. Once we re-elect them.

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The Civic Almanac
4月1日

You don’t lose modern wars by lacking power, you lose them by misunderstanding how power works.

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Tammy Mackinnon
4月1日

That’s probably true. I think possibly not starting in the first place is a good idea.

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Gail Stewart-Iles
4月1日

"The #1 Learning from Sun Tzu’s Art of War: Avoid Battle"

July 11, 2022 By Nagesh Belludi

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Dr. Bill Paxton
4月1日

As a paid subscriber Paul thank you so much for your daily contributions to my life. I appreciate your directness, your honesty, your timeliness, your hard work in doing this daily, and your brain. I imagine it was a stretch for you to start and make the video contributions, but this adds so much, and I do hope you continue, even though it is more effort on your end. -Bill

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Celia Leventhal
4月1日

Well said. Thank you, Bill.

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Dave H
4月1日

"It’s humiliating" - not for me or for many others. While its my country, I do not take any responsibility for the actions of people I did not vote for. I will suffer because of their actions but I am in no way responsible for them.

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Gail Stewart-Iles
4月1日

I handed out information for the Democrats on the ticket for five days before trump's second election. I was only going to do it for two, but realized things might not go well and I would want to know I had done all I could, so handed out info for the Dems as long as I could.

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Ellen Skogsberg
4月1日

Every bit helps and thank you!

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Carolyn Burns
4月1日

Is it? I am on a stock trading site and they are like vultures following this. Let’s watch who will go in to rebuild Iran. Kushners? Trumps? Netanyahu’s? Saudi Princes? Who is the “Board of Peace” negotiating with for rebuild contracts in Gaza?

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Robot Bender
4月1日

I suspect no one connected to the Trump's will be contracted to do anything in Iran. Why would they reward those who devastated their country?

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Carolyn Burns
4月1日

Money

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Gail Stewart-Iles
4月1日

Who has the contracts in Afghanistan?

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Elizabeth Crawford
4月1日

Follow the money. First you destroy the infrastructure, then you benefit by building it back up. It worked for the USA after WWII — the Marshall Plan let us do well by doing good.

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Tammy Mackinnon
4月1日

Well, you’re clearly a man!

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WC
4月1日

We've exchanged an 80something year old leader for a 50something year old leader. We've given Iran the blueprint on how to hold the world hostage so that no one will ever try this again. American soldiers are dead.

Winning.

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Acela
4月1日

And the 50something year old leader is more hardline than the old guy. How many new terrorists have been created in the month of March?

Plus, Iran is probably more determined than ever to develop nuclear weapons so that they get left alone like North Korea.

Smarter people have realized for decades the asymmetric strategic advantage that Iran holds on the Strait of Hormuz, but the Trump geniuses were either ignorant or foolhardy.

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WC
4月1日
Edited

Exactly. There's a reason why no one else tried doing this. But his sycophant advisers told him how special he is and that he alone can do it. No one would stop him.

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Elizabeth Crawford
4月1日

IGNORANT and unable to read a map. I mean, what is more obvious than the Strait of Hormuz???

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Lisa E.
4月5日

Both.

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Peter Liepmann
4月1日

George Orwell, writing in 1946:

The point is that we are all capable of believing things which we know to be untrue, and then, when we are finally proved wrong, impudently twisting the facts so as to show that we were right. Intellectually, it is possible to carry on this process for an indefinite time: the only check on it is that sooner or later a false belief bumps up against solid reality, usually on a battlefield.

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Elizabeth Crawford
4月1日

Thank you, George Orwell! That man knew a lot!

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Winston Smith London Oceania
4月1日

They want to be seen as muscleheads, but they're really knuckleheads.

The consequences for this debacle will last for decades. Not just the rest of our lives, but for generations to come. Way to go "Very Stable Genius".

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djw
4月1日

My mom always said the muscles take up space where a brain should be. Fits these guys.

But while the Iceatollah Khakamami may have decided this is over, I'm inclined to believe the Ayatollah, who says it will be over when *he* says it's over, and he hasn't said that yet.

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Joelle Van Over
4月1日

Thank you Paul Krugman.

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Scot Strickland
4月1日

Wow. Paul, you nailed it.

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Teena
4月1日

Aelliot - Why the rest of our lives?

Because I can't think of any country who would trust the government of the USA for a very, very, very long time. Here in Canada - that is definitely going to be for the rest of my life. And I really wish it wasn't going to be that way.

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Ms JLG
4月1日

Exactly. Electing trump was bad enough, but many could overlook it as a one off. However, when we, well the U.S. not me, freaking brought him back for a 2nd go, it's no longer about trump's incompetence & corruption. The world can't trust the U.S. as a whole to elect (or crown) reasonable leaders. No matter how great the next POTUS might be, no one will have confidence in who could follow.

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Lori Weatherly
4月3日

I believe he stole the 2024 election with the help of Musk. No candidate wins every swing state by a small enough margin as to not trigger the automatic recount.

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Ms JLG
4月3日

trump was in fact installed as POTUS for 2nd term. If legitimately won or stolen doesn't change the point that there's no reason to think it couldn't happen again.

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David Whitaker
4月2日

Iranians might have gradually forgotten why previous generations hated the US — because we inflicted the Shah on them, among other things. But now we’ve hurled missiles at them, even at kids in school, while pretending to negotiate with them, after tearing up the treaty that resulted from our last negotiation with them. They won’t forget or forgive for decades, maybe centuries. How that manifests is anybody’s guess. But it won’t be pretty.

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P. M L
4月1日

Not living on the Internet today, but early this morning when I first heard the Unconditional Surrender poorly cross dressed as Mission Accomplished and then heard it repeated by the Lethality Fairy conjurer, Pete, I looked for and didn't find the analysis that said we just announced our loss.

Finally our good doctor here worked OT to inform us. Whatever the heck our Traders were thinking they heard befuddles me.

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George Patterson
4月1日
Edited

As Mallen Baker put it, Trump is listening to "the dragons in his head." Here's his latest https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V0yK1maGIII

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Tammy Mackinnon
4月1日

I think he’s all Id. That’s it. So I would say lizard brain. He views the world thru the slitty little eyes of a lizard. In my ho. No superego. No ego. Just one big orange turd if an id.

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Gail Stewart-Iles
4月1日

Stand by for a lawsuit by the lizard coalition for defamation.

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Mike
4月1日

"A theocratic regime in Iran, which basically wants to bring back the Middle Ages..." Let's remember that they're up against a crooked government that wants to bring back the 1890's. The bigots in the White House and the Pentagon didn't think those turban-wearers in the Middle East could POSSIBLY be smart enough to outsmart them.

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Eric Boyle
4月1日

You could also add the Christian Nationalists to the mix so in the US you have both the grifters and the fundamentalists.

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Maelstrom, D.C.
4月1日

A possible second daily spot from Paul Krugman is always worth a peak in at Substack in the evening. Always amazed; wish I could’ve been a freshman in your classroom. I’ve often said it was far to my detriment not to have had an economics class. But here you offer it anyway. Thank you so very much for your generosity in these trying times.

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Robert Benson
4月1日

Re your comment that "we will be paying the price ... for the rest of our lives," this is clearly true, and very prescient. It it amazing how 14 months of the Trump presidency has so advanced China's role in this century and weakened the US. Trump has radically weakened so many aspects of America's strengths ... international alliances, fundamentals of the American and world economy, America's leadership in science and technology, and even America's military leadership. I quite think it possible now that the US has depleted so much of our military stocks that a Chinese war against Taiwan will show us to be a toothless dragon.

All of these eviscerations of American strength have a compounding effect, and so Trump couldn't have done a better job of pushing America off its throne as the world's superpower. China is the world's leading manufacturing state. It's military is behind, but is working hard to catch up. China is now a large regional power, but is fast becoming the world's leading nation, and Trump's bluster can't change that!

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Toby Bradshaw
4月1日

“The nation that will insist on drawing a broad line of demarcation between the fighting man and the thinking man is liable to find its fighting done by fools and its thinking done by cowards.” Sir William Francis Butler

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Marcel
4月1日

This so-called “President” completely and shamelessly oversteps every imaginable boundary! He behaves like a little child who doesn’t get what he wants. And then there’s this “Minister of War,” a former sports journalist who talks like a teenager in puberty. What on earth has become of the USA!? Domestically and internationally, it’s utter chaos—total breakdown. No plan, nothing. One emergency decree after another. One state of exception after the next..! What a damned mess!

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Terry Marie Moisan
4月1日

At 75 years old I thought I seen all the insane wars in my lifetime. It’s astounding to see this as the most stupid and world altering war yet.

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Michael Dee
4月1日

Have we all forgotten that in 1973 Nixon ordered everything that could fly or be flown be sent to Israel in the Yom Kippur War?

The result?

The Arab oil embargo and a solid decade of economic stagflation, unemployment, recession, high interest rates, gas lines and a whole lot of pain and suffering leading to the rise in power of the Arab oil states.

Here we go again.

Everyone needs to read “All the Shah’s Men” to understand the blowback we created.

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The Musings of the Big Red Car
4月1日

The 1973 Oil Embargo -- first oil crisis -- lasted 5 months and raised the price of a barrel of crude from $3 to $11.65/bbl. OAPEC -- Org of ARAB Petroleum Exporting Countries discovered they could manipulate prices solely by acting in concert.

This continued until the second oil shock in 1979 triggered by the fall of the Shah and the termination of Iranian production which was thought to be 4-7% of global supply.

The second oil shock was not created by OAPEC, but rather the shortage of supply. President Carter then placed a US embargo on Iranian oil which served to make oil more expensive for the US and almost nobody else in the short term.

Oil increased from $12/bbl to about $34-39/bbl primarily because of Carter's actions and the recognition by now OPEC that they could charge pretty much whatever TF they wanted to charge.

It would not be unfair to suggest with the benefit of hindsight that Carter caused all the resulting economic ills. He went ever further initiating car efficiency standards, mandatory conservation, gas formulation standards that all contributed to the energy malaise.

The malaise lasted until the election of Ronald Reagan.

Only political junkies will recall Carter -- who was a very decent fellow, just horribly out of his depth and wildly ill-advised -- fired all of his Cabinet.

The elimination of Iran will be the best thing that ever happened for peace in the Middle East even amongst all the despotisms that rule right now.

Nixon saved Israel. Carter wrecked the energy industry in the US. Reagan saved the country.

What is wildly different today is that the US is energy independent and if we would develop and execute an aggressive nuclear power strategy -- we have the plan, we're just not executing yet -- we would be energy dominant.

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Gerald Grant Silliss
4月1日

Your summations are awesome. As an aside for UK people, I'd like to say:

How can the King of United Kingdom visit a rogue state, with a head of state that has started an illegal war, is likely to have committed war crimes, continues to make horrendous threats against energy infrastructure destruction and made things so difficult in relation to the release of the Epstein files.

Given the UK public are paying for the visit it should definitely not proceed in my view.

Please sign up to this if you agree

https://www.change.org/p/urge-the-king-to-cancel-his-2026-visit-to-the-us?sign_confirm_error=failed_token

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Allen Price
4月1日

Paul, I know it’s hard work to write something like this on top of all the other things you’re getting done. Thanks so much for just letting it rip so the truth is laid bear.

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Hart Cunningham
4月1日

What USA thinks it's #1 in (and its actual rankings):

Life Expectancy: 46th

FreePress: 42nd

Healthcare: 30th

Education: 26th

Happiness: 23rd

Freedom: 17th

What the USA is #1 in:

Military Spending

Number of Billionaires

Incarceration

Bankruptcy filings

Medical debt

Gun deaths

Funding israel

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Annabelle Woodhouse
4月1日

I shudder every time I hear Hegseth talk about the warrior ethos, the discarding of war rules, and best and biggest armed force in the world. And also asking God to ensure every bullet fired or bomb dropped kills an enemy viciously. Might, as you say, is not brains.

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Cherie
4月1日

He obviously loves the "blood and guts" God of the Old Testament. He is not a Christian, but then, few people really are.

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Elizabeth Crawford
4月1日

Even the God of the Old Testament said “What does the Lord ask of you but that you do justice, love mercy, and walk humbly with your God.” These guys lose on all three points! 🤣

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chris lemon
4月1日
Edited

The absolutely stunning thing about the US foray into Iran is that less than two decades ago, the US squandered $4Trillion in Iraq and Afghanistan, and lost both conflicts. These were "easier" wars to win, had public support, and there were allies. The Iran attack is stupid beyond measure. Iran is a very large country, has an advanced and fairly cohesive culture, and over 80 million citizens. Trump has gleefully torn the lid off Pandora's box in Iran, and proposes that he's now going to wander off looking for his next fiasco? The US government, democracy so to speak, has now clearly failed. Its not clear how to fix the system, but if the US recovers, the system must be changed.

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Elizabeth Crawford
4月1日

The educational system has to change. We need to reward good judgement, and allow kids to have consequences that really catch their attention. How else do kids learn, but to watch each other and themselves? Oh, and fix the tax structure so there aren’t so many super-rich people who get around the consequences of their acts.

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chris lemon
4月2日

A lot of things are going to have to change: Education, tax policy, government structure. The collapse of the US was entirely self inflicted. No foreign invasion or natural disaster brought down the US.

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Dwight Jon Zimmerman
4月1日
Edited

I'm ignorant. By that I mean I know that I don't know. I also only have a trade school education. But I read. A lot. I'm self-educated as a writer and, long story short, I became an award-winning NYT #1 bestselling writer (amongst other things) of military history. What Hegseth is doing is something worse than what the generals of World War I did to their troops, which was horrendous enough--in Great Britain alone killing off a generation of their men. I've written about general failures and what lead to their decisions. I am seeing a terrible repeat unless the generals in charge tell our chest-thumping SecDef "No."

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SAH Vashon
4月1日

Thinking, using one’s brain is way to difficult for every person in this administration! YES, THEY HATE LEARNING, your words.

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andré
4月1日

It is not just LEARNING. It is thinking and planning ahead as well.

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James Mcguire
4月1日

Dear Professor K, you always leave out Israel! The autocrat in Israel was the primary driver of the war, plus the nut jobs in Washington, MBS and more. I think Israel's goal was to degrade Iran's capability and with the help of America that has been pretty much accomplished. So it's a win for Israel and a loss for the rest of the world? Especially for Iran. And remember, it was Eisenhower and the Brits that overthrew the democratic government of Iran in 1953 for oil, which initiated the problems we face in Iran today. The karmic fun has only just begun. And what's up with Israel? They are now channeling Hitler and Nazism?

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Cherie
4月1日

I started becoming aware of how much the US has meddled in the Arab (oil) world during the hostage crisis of 1979. Found out that the Shah's father was illegitimately put back in power by the US (CIA, specifically). We always pay for this - the Arabs (and/or Persians, if you insist) never forget an injury done to them. This idiot Trump has probably guaranteed that 95% of Americans will experience a much lower standard of living for pretty much ALL of the rest of their lives. His future grave will be desecrated daily.

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Jennie H.
4月1日

Piss is purer than Trump, so really they won't be desecrating so much as purifying.

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Fiona Davies
4月18日

Not just Americans.

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Jordan Sollitto
4月1日

A small contingent of the MAGA faithful will accept the blather about "victory" and thump their chests while chanting USA...USA! But most of us -- and the rest of the world -- will see it for the humiliating debacle that it is. I don't think that even in my wildest dreams I thought Trump 2.0 could do this much enduring damage this fast. We will live in the wreckage of his reckless hubris for generations to come.

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Elizabeth Crawford
4月1日

Any jackass can knock down a barn. Probably the more he is a jackass, the more he knocks down. How has it all happened so fast!?!?!

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Jon Harrison
4月1日

I think you're a little out front on this -- out front prematurely, that is. Trump as we know says one thing one day, the opposite the next. Usually he's just spouting lies; we all know that too. I hope that he's TACOing, but I have my doubts. I don't think the Marines, paratroopers, and special operators were sent as a bluff. I expect ground action (not an invasion, of course, you'd need about 750,000 troops for that) in a matter of days, maybe on Friday. The bombing campaign will be ramped up at the same time. They are going to try something, unless I'm really mistaken.

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andré
4月1日

The problem is DT has no idea what he will do tomorrow, and no idea what he did/said yesterday. Or 5 minutes ago.

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Olof Hesselmark
4月1日

The minute the marines land om the island they will be met by one or more deadly Ukrainan drones for every one of them.

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Jon Harrison
4月1日

We'll see. I don't support this war, but I try to be objective. I'm pretty sure we can take and hold Kharg island. I feel kind of like a Roman at the Colosseum, but I have to admit it will be interesting to watch.

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Jonathan Grudin
4月1日
Edited

I agree. Sending several thousand of our most capable troops there, then immediately declaring it over gaining nothing from their presence will look stupid whatever one's opinion on the war. Even Trump and macho Hegseth can see that. Kidnapping uranium would be very risky, occupying Kharg Island seems simple to Trump. He could claim a clear victory and perhaps use it as a bargaining chip. Or build a golf course on it.

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Elizabeth Crawford
4月1日

Jonathan Grudin — Or lots of soldiers can die. Occupying Kharg Island isn’t simple, as anyone who can read a map can tell you.

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Jonathan Grudin
4月2日

Elizabeth Crawford -- Have you read that Trump said that it would be simple and that advisors who say otherwise are "stupid." The US destroyed defenses, kidnapped Maduro with (Trump said) an incredible new weapon, and Trump may think they have strong intel on defenses. I hope I'm wrong, but if he is planning to pull out, why not "now" instead of "in two or three weeks"? If planning to go in, two or three weeks for newly arrived forces to organize and convince opponents to relax makes sense.

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John Lawrence
4月1日

To quote a late sage, "It ain't over till it's over." And Trump ain't over till he's over. We don't know how bad/good it will get till it gets bad/good.

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Gail Stewart-Iles
4月1日

The only good part I have seen is that less oil will be used and more renewables will be installed.

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Bikist
4月1日

Nailed it. However unfortunate it is. Still grateful to the messenger.

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MountainGnome
4月1日

Ouch. God bless us every one!

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Winston Smith London Oceania
4月1日
Edited

God help us, everyone.

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Todd Bruno
4月1日

How would you feel as parent of one of the 13 war fatalities now ..Trump started a war for little reason and very little strategic planning..now when it’s clear that the Iranians called his hand ..and he has no executable path for “ victory “ he says we’re leaving .. it appears that Israel who has wanted to do this for years ..no previous president was stupid enough to go along ..and MBS were able to finally get the patsy they have waited so long to barter this transaction somehow..shameful,embarrassing..history will not look kindly on this debacle..this patsy is not easily embarrassed or shamed unfortunately

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John Van Gundy
4月1日

The pattern has existed for decades: Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq W 2.0, and now Ukraine. Asymmetrical warfare wins wars, not conventional military armies, Air Force’s, navies.

You can win every battle but still lose the war. Ukraine is a refresher course for military planners and strategists on whom the lesson has been lost.

Name one U.S. military planner or strategist who had the word “drone” in their analysis in the run-up to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. With no conventional navy, Ukraine defeated and drove Russia’s Black Sea Fleet (90 vessels) back to its home port with some smart torpedoes and we’ll-placed bombs in the Russian Naval Officer Headquaters building in Odessa.

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John Ham
4月1日

Trump shat in his diapers and now wants others clean up the mess

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Cornelius
4月1日

there is even a nice metaphor in the book. The English general who lost against the Turks (in the battle of Kut I thought) was pampered in a palace with his bulldog, while his soldiers, English and Indian were left to rot in Turkish captivity. General only cared about his dog. This utter lack of empathy makes me think of a certain president.

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Artemisia G
4月1日
Edited

Except djt doesn’t even care about animals……

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Jim Carmichael
4月1日

You are exactly right. MUSCULAR CHRISTIANITY! Just exactly what the world never needed.

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Stephen Kaufman
4月1日

Other than retaking the tennis courts of Grenada, the United States has not won a war since WWII. Now that's a pretty poor return on an investment of trillions of dollars and thousands of lives. Perhaps the real lesson is, war is not a viable answer to resolving disagreements.

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Daniel G
4月1日
Edited

Paul is, as often, 100% right, accurate and to the point. Now the issue is that, unless US military finds a way to strike whichever really valuable target forcing the mollah’s hand to negotiate, the withdrawal of US will make this war an immense and probably irrémédiable pain for Iranian people, the Gulf countries and the rest of the world. I’ve known - and said profusely, for the past weeks, that we shall soon experience TACO. Now the question mark is, will it be after gaining at least a little bit valuable leverage, or just a total fiasco?

Also, as Reagan did back in 1983 by invading Grenada after over 200 American soldiers had been killed by Hezbollah in Lebanon, it’s predictable that Trump is going to do his best (worst) to conquer Cuba.

One of the saddest thing with this horrible leader is that he’s still friends with Putin - who’s making gazillion $ thanks to this war, and provides drones to Iran which kill Americans and allies, and he’s supporting Viktor Orban reelection, the very guy who’s blocking Europe from using the frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine.

History will rank him as the worst possible president of the USA in a very near future, but that won’t help all those, here or abroad, who are and will suffer from his criminal decisions during mostly his 2nd term.

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MT
4月1日

The group action that we all will be paying for throughout the rest of our lives will be that instead of throwing Donald Trump into prison, we made him our president.

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Nigel
4月1日

Killing the Ayatollah was as effective as it would be to kill the Archbishop of New York and think you've killed the President. If you don't study and understand your enemies you are likely to get a nasty shock. Does anyone think Trump will now begin to realise the Hegseth idea of maximum lethality and muscular Christianity make great soundbites on Fox but in a real war are as useful as a chocolate teapot?

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Rena Stone
4月1日

Not really - because he is fundamentally incapable of learning.

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Nigel
4月2日

He sacked Noem because he learned she was hurting his polling numbers. Never underestimate those you do not agree with unless you want to be surprised like Trump has been from following Hegseth's advice. Hegseth might be a good tactician (but even that's doubtful) but as a strategist he clearly has no clue. If Trump asked him if the US can beat Iran, Hegseth will have just given the Fox News answer.

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Renato
4月1日

to be fair, if Trump is truly surrendering, that is probably the smartest decision he has ever made

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andré
4月1日

If he did surrender, he probably hasn't realized it yet.

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Lex Professio
4月1日

Iran has not lost the war. Trump has lost interest.

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Tomonthebeach
4月1日

Nobody is likely to read this, but you never know. I spent 34 years in uniform, from Navy Seaman to Captain. I also earned my PhD in Organizational Psychology 10 years after being drafted. I had 2 combat tours in Vietnam - one in the jungles and one as a destroyer squadron navigator. By age 26 I was a 40% diabled vet, but the Navy Surgeon General waived my disabilities to keep me in uniform. For the next 24 years, I worked for admirals and generals as well as agency heads and both the VP and the President. The Navy Chief of Staff became my mentor, and the Joint Chiefs of Staff seemed to find my work helpful.

My first Pentagon assignment had me sitting in on weekly board meetings with 8 admirals. What I observed there, and for the remainder of my career, was that Flag officers (generals and admirals) cared very much that they made prudent decisions. My role was often to help identify unintended negative consequences of policies and practices via research. Even in Nam, long before my intro to the Pentagon, I provided direct support to 2 admirals. Never once did I see the stereotypical behaviors that Paul mentioned.

I freely admit that the other services might have different promotion criteria for their flag officers, and that might increase the likelihood of letting macho blind leaders to prudent strategies and optimal on-the-fly decisions in the heat of battle. Pete Hegseth, who fits Paul's stereotype like a glove, would have been retired after 6 months with his 1st star. I saw such forced separations now and then when perhaps a promotion was politically influenced like "Promote my guy, or I will kill funding for your new project." Cong. Ronny Jackson, Trump's doctor, is a great example.

In the boardroom, it was easy to spot admirals who did not belong there. They would usually be assigned to high-profile jobs that were obviously over their heads. That way, when they failed, their "sponsors on the Hill" were politically powerless to save them from forced retirement. When I too was selected for admiral, I retired the next day, and moved over to NIH for dozen more years so I could continue similar creative mischief to my roles at DOD. I knew too well the downsides of flag jobs, and I made the right decision. I was a thinker, not so much a doer. A number of my peers did the same thing. You really need to be a born leader to succeed as an admiral or a general. Alas, Hegseth has castrated DOD of most of its best leaders. That has clearly diluted military effectiveness since Trump 2.0.

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Elizabeth Crawford
4月1日

Thank you Tom. I hope you are enjoying a well-deserved rest on the beach. The sobriety and professionalism of our armed services used to be the envy of the world, and even so, they were unable to win some foolish wars. Now the sober and professional ones have been pushed out and we are left with hopeless cases.

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Tomonthebeach
4月2日

What is important to remember is that Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, ... were not wars to be won. They were political theater to help stay in office, and, as in the case of Iran, to skirt Congressional authority.

When Bush started promoting WMDs, I had just finished a big study for JCS on the subject and knew WMDs were bullshit. I asked the experts who were on site during the first Iraq invasion and who had told me they had collected all the WMDs - anthrax-laced artillery shells. They all said that Cheney had built an information moat around the WH so Powell and Trump would be kept in the dark. That is clear evidence of politics rather than national defense driving our foreign invasions. Nobody on the Hill tried to dig for facts.

Once we have occupied a nation, presidents can, and clearly do, milk them for political purposes year after year as we have all observed. Also, let us not lose sight of the importance of continually priming the MIC for political donations. If we had a will, we could have blown Vietnam to smithereens, but that wold have only turned the population against the West and given substance to the phoney dominoes that were spreading evil Chinese communism.

Today, Vietnam is a US trading partner, China too. Iraq, Afghanistan, and Iran are all mission impossibles because they are theocracies - religious power cults. Theocracies have long histories of resistance to change. This is perhaps why Autocrat Trump and his henchpersons are now promoting Iran as a US Christian holy war, and bullying all American Muslims as if they are "domestic terrorists."

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Micah S.
4月1日

I don't agree that the Iranian regime wants to bring back the Middle Ages. Theocratic and fiercely conservative they are, but 'wanting to bring back the Middle Ages' is a much better description of the Saudis. The Institute for the Study or War report today detailed the Israelis hitting the Imam Hussein University facilities, center of the Iranian Republican Guard weapons development. 'Middle Ages' regimes don't have centers for nuclear physics. It would be a mistake to just treat them as backwards, because they as a population are very well educated technically.

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Rich Snow
4月1日

Ah, such comforting thoughts to go to sleep with. Perfectly put, depressingly so.

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H. H.
4月1日

TACO - Trump Always Chickens Out

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George Patterson
4月1日

but he can't do that in a war. At least, not as the commander in chief.

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andré
4月1日

He seems to be doing the impossible anyway.

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George Patterson
4月1日

Doesn't look like it to me. He's sent thousands of Marines with an amphibious attack ship to the conflict, sections of an airborne division, and another carrier task force. It'll take a while for that carrier to get there, but the ground forces are ready to go to work now.

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Lisa Wagner
4月1日

I’m no expert, but I think you have this right.

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Tommytoes
4月1日

The military academies still produce intelligent educated individuals. Problem is they tell the politicians what they want to hear.

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Jay Jay Eh
4月1日

If Hegseth or Trump don’t like what they hear they fire or demote those individuals.

It’s already happened bigtime … plus throughout the entire govt.

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Scott Baker
4月1日
Edited

I was saying from the time when Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz & threatened other Gulf countries that this is the end of the Gulf Arab countries and American alliance. First, Trump poisoned that relationship by being such an obvious grifter - taking in a literal airplane, as well as Qatar & Saudi "investments" into his family's various crypto schemes - which have all more-or-less collapsed along with Bitcoin in the past half year or so, accelerating during the war. The Gulf countries are famously transactional, just like Trump. Their whole economies are based on oil and its derivative power.

But Trump perfected the Art of the Bad Deal. For all those transactions, aka 'Bribes,' Trump was supposed to guarantee American protection against enemies like Iran, but also now a lot of Russia intelligence and even improved Iranian-inspired drones. He utterly failed. Even worse, he's made American sites, military and civilian, targets in the Gulf countries. Iran is well aware of this and is coaxing their "brothers" - their words, not mine - to join them against the "America occupiers" - again, their words. Islamic countries shift alliances all the time because they have no classical liberal values, they value power above all else.

Why would they want to associate with "loser" America, which has caused the destruction of decades of infrastructure and thousands of people (they care more about the former at the leadership level)?

Trump may have lost the entire Persian Gulf. And Israel may succumb from its 7-front war without America too; Trump will tire of supporting Israel too, like everything else. Already Hamas and Hezbollah have returned almost to their former strength, while the IDF is in danger of collapse, according to one high ranking official of the IDF: https://www.timesofisrael.com/zamir-said-to-warn-cabinet-that-idf-will-collapse-in-on-itself-amid-manpower-shortage/. If that happens we will truly have no allies in that part of the world. We barely have any allies in Europe already, thanks to Trump's ridiculous pursuit of Greenland against Denmark, and other insults.

MAGA wanted America to turn inward, to focus only on America. In that they may have succeeded, but the world will paying the price of the loss of the post WWII Pax America security, including NATO which is now routinely against American policy, forever, with continuous wars everywhere. America alone will be a greatly diminished power, probably not attacked directly, but undermined from within by soft cultural corruption from Islam, China, even Russia, all of whom have interests far from the average American. This is what MAGA has brought us.

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Cindy
4月1日

Well said Mr.Krugman. For the rest of our lives

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M. Layfield
4月1日

The whip cream to the fudge sundae arrived in Trump’s press briefing this evening. OMG! What the hell will it take to remove this dumpster fire?

But back to reality…Telling our former allies (I can’t blame a single one of them) that if they want oil, they can go get it, you know, go clean up the mess Kegsbreath and Trump created. Another TACO Tuesday smeared in blood and guts and all for nothing. … I care nothing about hearing how the U.S. has disabled their nuclear program at this hour. Focus is, and should be, on the collateral damage to the rest of the world because Amendment 25 does not fit the schedule of the billionaires.

Let’s not forget the billionaires.

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Muse Tutor
4月1日

Trump is asking REPORTERS for advice on his Iran war!!!

Only British reporters are telling the truth about trump’s dementia! And they have it recorded!

British conservative platform FINANCIAL TIMES reporter just phones trump and he picks up on first ring at maralago

Trump is vacillating- what should I do about Iran? To the reporter! The reporter says MR PRESIDENT IT IS NOT MY JOB TO DECIDE FOR YOU…

This is EXACTLY what occurred with BOB WOODWARD in 2020 Trump asked Woodward ON TAPE- what should I do about this Covid disease ???

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DWhbhZ8FzWi/

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FfsBoise
4月1日

I wholeheartedly agree with the disdain for Hegseth - there's nothing not to disdain there or in Tяump. But he's hardly or barely military - he has no leadership experience and even less understanding of strategy or tactics.

But I would rather the title be changed to "Military Leadership" incompetence, as the way it's written seems to cast disdain over all of our military. The vast majority of our servicemen and women are simply and truthfully following what are largely legal orders (at least until they are told to intentionally target civilian infrastructure) and, judging by all the shit blowing up, doing a very competent job at it.

The thing is, the military has not been given any objective other than to blow shit up, and that's not a viable strategy. Tяump, Hegseth, and the administration don't know what to do with a military - they're just a tool as far as they're concerned. And if that tool is a sledgehammer, then suddenly the world is full of things needing to be turned into rubble.

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Richard Chase
4月1日

Given the criteria Trump uses to pick the people he surrounds himself with—sycophants not thinkers, this is what we get.

So now we’re left with an oil blockade and he’s washing his hands of the situation, telling our allies to clean up the mess he made.

It would be an improvement if he was simply useless. Unfortunately he’s malevolent.

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Charley Ice
4月1日

This is the true nature of this regime - bull in the china shop, no regrets, no compensation, vomit and depart. Everything it touches turns to shit, and it's all someone else's problem because Trump still has a mouth above his shoulders. The technofascists scoop the wealth of the earth while we go extinct. Have a nice day.

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Scott almburg
4月1日

malignant narcissist personality disordered moron caused it.

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Vanessa Gunter
4月1日

"Muscular Christianity" - lol, what a great description. You're right, the whole thing is a total debacle. But I just hope it's really over...

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Jennie H.
4月1日

It's an actual British movement from its past.

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Philip T Grier
4月1日

Indeed. Pentagon Pete—the Headless Horseboy of the Apocalypse

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Ken Orvis
4月1日

I’m not sure you’re looking far enough back in history … or pre-history. Once upon a time there must have been many, many encounters of a gang of beefy guys who believed in muscles and and shouting and looking fierce and other traditional warrior ethos — let’s call them the pithecus gang — with a gang of maybe (or not) less beefy guys — let’s call them the habilis gang — who had thought through the advantages of carrying around long, pointy sticks that you could poke people with or maybe even throw at them. Spoiler: the sticks won.

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Beatriz Armendariz
4月1日

Call me naive, but the anti-Trump rhetoric is tepid and uninspired. Where are the leaders with the courage to demand an end to this destructive presidency—right now, not after three more years of chaos and division? Why is there no bold, relentless campaign for Trump's immediate resignation, one that rejects half-measures and refuses to normalise his lawless behaviour? Are we content to be passive spectators, waiting for the next outrage, the next assault on our democracy and decency? The silence is complicity. The public must demand an unequivocal stand—no more hedging, no more waiting. If we truly care about the future of America and the world, we must insist that this dangerous experiment ends immediately. Where is our collective outrage? Why do we accept this as the new normal? It’s time for real leadership, and it’s time for the public to make its voice impossible to ignore.

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James Jordan
4月1日

Dr. K,

Like you, I have been transfixed by the hatreds of this region. My last sea duty tour in 1970-72 before being assigned to Washington was on a helicopter carrier with a Marine Corps battle group on board that operated in this area of the Mediterranean, when tensions were running high.

And as everyone knows the region erupted into the 6-day war in 1973 that created a global economic hell in oil prices, that you were involved in. I was on duty in a Navy Command headquarters and that decade and the following decade shaped the future of the world as well as my own involvement in trying to create a viable economy less dependent on the combustion of coal, oil, and natural gas, because we learned that we were saturating the atmosphere with combustion gasses that could not be recycled fast enough causing increasingly violent changes in the climate. Clearly, we must make the transition. I believe we can. It won't be quick or easy but all of these current fossil fuel wealth nations should begin to "retool" for using these valuable hydrocarbons for their derivative product uses rather than combustion. The Electric Century is in progress.

What we’re watching now in this region isn’t the product of “ancient hatreds.” That phrase is a political crutch—an excuse for failure, a way to pretend that modern leaders are trapped by forces beyond their control. The truth is simpler and far more damning: armed conflict has never resolved the social, cultural, and economic fractures that define this region. It only deepens them.

Israel itself is proof. The bitter divisions among its own cultural and religious communities that have persisted for generations, untouched by military victories and unmoved by political coercion.

I am convinced that no military force can reconcile identities or manufacture social trust. These are civic problems masquerading as military ones, and every attempt to solve them with force, in my lifetime has produced the same result: more grief, more instability, more disillusionment.

There is nothing “ancient” about the current hostilities. If anything, the long arc of history points in the opposite direction. There would be no Israel without a Persian king—Cyrus—who conquered the Babylonians and invited the Jews to return to their homeland. That is the historical record: coexistence, not eternal enmity. The idea of primordial Persian–Jewish hatred is a modern invention, crafted for modern political purposes.

Which brings me to the United States. We have spent decades entangling ourselves in a conflict we insist on treating as timeless and inevitable, when in fact it is neither. By accepting the mythology, we’ve helped perpetuate it. By treating a social and cultural struggle as a military problem, we’ve guaranteed that every intervention fails on its own terms.

There is no logic to these divisions—only the tragic momentum of choices made and remade by political actors who benefit from perpetual crisis, and armed conflict. And I regret, profoundly, that the United States continues to pour its credibility, resources, and moral capital into a dispute that cannot be solved at the barrel of a gun.

If there is any lesson worth drawing from this moment, it is that wars of identity never end through force. They end only when societies choose coexistence over grievance. Everything else is noise.

Thanks for your work.

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Elizabeth Crawford
4月1日

Thank you, James Jordan, for your sane and well-based analysis. As the Cold War bumper sticker says, “Coexistence or no existence.”

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Raj
4月1日

I basically agree, but the one part I don't understand is why we believe Trump's latest claims of US surrender. He is best analysed as someone who can use enormous power to create insider trading opportunities for himself and his buddies. From their point of view, he had an enormous victory in starting the war - investing in oil and military companies, and shorting the market - and he wins with a US surrender as well, by reversing those positions. Is he embarrassed? Not a bit! He is likely hundreds of millions of dollars better off for each action. He might even be able to escalate again and carry on his insider-dealing gravy train. Or he will find another geopolitical crisis to flip-flop on so as to move global markets for him and his buddies to cash in on.

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Müller Bæ
4月1日

I'm still looking for where Trump is supposed to be surrendering.

Is this post Mr. Krugman's attempt on an April Fools joke?

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Raj
4月1日

Well the markets have responded as if he already surrendered. However, like you I am missing the evidence. Is it just wishful groupthink? Is it Kremlinology gone wild? Or is it some subtle indirect indication I missed. The chance of a market reversal by the weekend looks extremely high.

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Müller Bæ
4月1日
Edited

Just pinched my arm... err, checked Brent oil, and it's $103 a barrel. Only a few days ago that was a high price but now the war is over? I don't think so.

It's simply too early to say. Trump's deadline is still April 6 and he probably want his cronies to cash in on the latest developments. In a few weeks lack of supply will take over the narrative.

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Raj
4月1日

It dropped from 105.5 to 99 briefly, and now is back over 103. S&P was up 2.5%, FTSE 1.9% and N225 more than 5%... all from that tweet and subsequent commentary. It has to be a down day today once the US opens, unless we are missing something

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Müller Bæ
4月1日
Edited

Well, it can't make my piss boil, as we say here.

And that alone should indicate the war is over?

Agreed that we should get a downer reaction today, unless Trump pulls a different rabbit out of his hat.

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Raj
4月4日

Sometimes it is depressing to be right... We were off by a day, but how the world went crazy over Trumps tweet suggests we are collectively biased to way too much optimism.

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Ed Hollander
4月1日

Hegseth went to Princeton, Vance to OSU and Yale law, Trump to Wharton. What did these elite schools teach them?

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Mark Silverstone
4月1日
Edited

As they say, "You can't make this stuff up." It is just too hard to believe that the US goes and breaks so much in terms of people and physical assets, and just walks away."

It will be memorialized as one great tragic blunder. The ramifications will be long lasting.

While one casualty is too many, we should be grateful if there is no massive loss of American lives.

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Robert Tifft
4月1日

On my first deployment with the Marine Corps in 1998-99 I made a point of reading this book in all the public spaces that I could find on the boat (an LHD). Nobody ever asked me about it. I took that as a failure of imagination. But in counter to the failures of the English, I think the story of the Battle of Flodden, 1513, is appropriate. The Scots outnumbered the English (~34,000 to ~22,000) but the Scottish leaders all took their place at the front lines of their soldiers. They had to prove their bravery by fighting in front of their men. The English generals took their place where they could see the action. Particularly the overall commander, the Earl of Surrey, who the Scots made fun of because as an old man he had to be carried to the battlefield in a sedan chair. He watched from a position where he could direct the battle, but not participate. The outnumbered English proceeded to decimate the Scots, as the English leaders were able to direct the action while the Scottish leaders only knew what was going on around them, as they could not see the battlefield.

By directing the battle instead of fighting in it, the Earl of Surrey killed over 10,000 Scots, including their king, James IV and numerous Earls and nobles of the realm. Brains instead of brawn gave the English a decisive victory. Secretary Kegstand is far from the brains department. This is reflected in the course of the current campaign.

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Meg Salter
4月1日

One of the surest signs of decline is hubris and cruelty. There’s a moral stench to it. Reminds me of the end of British hegemony. Not that long ago.

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Jeffrey L Kaufman
4月1日

Please look again at Sun Tzu. There are really multiple aspects to this struggle. Muscular warfare vs artful warfare, but there is also a dimension of artful negotiation. In dealing with Iran, we have been dealing with people who were raised to negotiate, to haggle, to dissemble, to literally enjoy the subtle nature of the bargain. We are ignoring all these nuanced aspects of dealing with Iran.

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Lisa Heard
4月1日

Thank you. You are totally correct. Trump and republicans and especially his stupid, unqualified, cabinet picks are destroying the American and world economies and the world order. IMPEACH trump and all republicans NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Hayward Maberley
4月1日

Apropos the Persian Gulf, talk about never learning from history, even your very own!*

USA War game Millennium Challenge 2002, which when it was conducted, was the most ambitious and costly, USD 250 million, military simulation in US history. It was set somewhere in the Persian Gulf, with the possible opponent Iran or Iraq, incorporating the so called Rumsfeld Doctrine.

The Blue team, the offensive was led by US Army LTGEN. B. B. Bell, the Red Team , that of Red team, the defensive, was led by retired Marine Corps LTGEN Paul Van Riper.

LTGEN Van Riper decided that as soon as the USN carrier battle group steamed into the Persian Gulf, he would “preempt the preemptors” and strike first. Once the US forces were within range, Van Riper’s forces unleashed a barrage of missiles from ground-based launchers, commercial ships and planes flying low and without radio communications to reduce their radar signature. Simultaneously, swarms of speedboats loaded with explosives launched kamikaze attacks.

The carrier battle group’s Aegis radar system, which tracks and attempts to intercept incoming missiles, was quickly overwhelmed, and 19 USN ships were sunk, including the carrier, several cruisers, and five amphibious ships.

“The whole thing was over in five, maybe ten minutes,” Van Riper said.

But then strangely, re-scripting occurred with all thise ships being re-floated to continue the Blue Team attack and other outcomes in Millennium Challenge 2002 being also re-scripted with the Red Team heavily constrained from free-play, in fact stopped from doing what had happened before "to the point where the end state was scripted"resulting in a Blue victory.

LTGEN Van Riper later criticised the cost of the exercise as "wasted"

Die Geschichte hat noch nie etwas anderes gelehrt, als dass die Menschen nichts aus ihr gelernt haben.”. Georg Frederich Hegel

History has never taught anything other than that people have learned nothing from it.

and even more apposite now in the Iran Imbroglio...

“Er hat vergessen, hinzuzufügen: das eine Mal als Tragödie, das andere Mal als Farce!” Karl Marx

He, (Hegel,) forgot to add this: first as tragedy, second as farce!

To which can be added a great German aphorism...

Einmal ist keinmal, zweimal ist einmal zuviel!

Once is once, twice is once too much!

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The Musings of the Big Red Car
4月1日

Everything you say about Millenium Challenge 2002 is generally true, but you seem to have completely missed the point.

The point is this -- the then current US Navy war fighting strategy was vulnerable to an asymmetric attack when a US Navy aircraft carrier attack group ventured within range of asymmetric attackers.

". . . ventured within range . . ."

The doctrine changed. It changed such that US Navy aircraft carrier attack groups do not wander into close proximity of hostiles who may possess such asymmetric weapons.

There are no US Navy aircraft carrier attack groups steaming into the Persian Gulf as we speak. Doctrine now calls for a greater standoff and a more nimble refueling capaability.

Such exercises are more instructive when the home team gets its ass kicked and its vulnerabilities are unmasked. This is the raison d'etre professional warriors conduct such exercises. Professional warriors lust after a good ass kicking and a chance to fix the problems.

You can rest assured that the lessons learned in that exercise are incorporated into planning decisions that prevent the Iranians from obtaining anything close to that result.

The initiation of hostilities by the Americans -- which did not involve an aircraft carrier attack group steaming into the Persian Gulf -- with a vicious EW attack that blinded the detection capabilities of the best Russian/Chinese/Iranian "stuff", followed by undetected standoff weapons like the Tomahawks that destroyed the Iranian air defense capabilities was brilliant.

Lesson learned.

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Made Simple for MAGA
4月1日

And yet, the Straight of Hormuz remains closed and the cost of filling the tank of your big red car keeps climbing.

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Walt
4月1日

What gets me is that we really do have a great, and often intellectually formidable, military leadership. But they were ignored. They have to do what the civilian idiot in charge demands they do. Gallipoli is the case in point now. Winston Churchill was the idiot there.

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Bob Ciolek
4月1日

Remember The Colin Powell adage, "If you broke it, you own it'? Trump's version is "If you break it, you drop it on the floor and run out the door".

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Henry
4月1日

I have been meaning to re-read Barbara Tuchman's The March of Folly.

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chris lemon
4月1日

This admin is going to be worth a couple of chapters in a new edition.

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Wanda E. Barquin
4月1日

Thank you…sad state of affairs…

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Daniel Rench
4月1日

Thanks Paul

You’re right

Awful & embarrassing

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David Kallio
4月2日

Let’s not focus on the competence or incompetence of our military adventurism. Let’s focus upon the tendency, in a modern and complicated world, to shoot first and ask questions later. Our country has totally abandoned diplomacy. Rubio may as well be dressed as an ICE agent. Where are the treaties, the compromises, the understandings …………gone. Our muscle is our message and it may work against select weaker countries, but Iran is not one of them. How do we even negotiate with a country that we have twice, in the last eight months and while at the negotiating table, slyly attack them. Where is our word? How can we be trusted not to reorganize and come back at them. We have destroyed our word and trust as we follow Israel’s lead and not our own. The amount of hypocrisy that we carry in the Middle East is astounding. How many of our allies there are terribly bad actors. If we truly cared about justice, we’d be attacking many of them. As an example, Egypt is nothing more than a thuggish government being paid to be a friend to Israel. It’s a total moral mess, and I haven’t even mentioned yet, Saudi Arabia! For decades we have been the bad actors on this planet. At 80 years of age, there’s not been one war/conflict that we have engaged in that was absolutely necessary. We’ve just fed the military Industrial complex and shortchanged the needs of our people. Truly sad!!!

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Laurie Dumouchel
4月2日

Thank you so much for the transcript. I can't keep with you when just spoken.

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Ivan
4月1日

I would add that in the current administration there is outright paranoia about anybody who is daring to raise concern - they automatically get labelled as deep state, instead of taking their concerns up for serious consideration. There is a big penalty for even hinting that those gut feelings of the Orange King are not God's revelations, but something that should be deposited in the golden bowl. So you have self-reinforcing incompetence circling our country down the drain - because GOP congress critters have more loyalty to their jobs than their country.

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Good thoughts
4月1日

Countries that attack sovereign nations for the purpose of empire inevitably lose.

This has been the case post WWI. The lesson of WW2.

The lesson to be relearned and re-experienced by any country engaged in empire.

To disengage from the current aggression is an act of strength.

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jerry
4月1日

Thing is though, I have not heard any word from Iran if they are willing to abide. If the dude does not abide, then, it ain't over. 200 to 250.00 per barrel of oil is still in the cards when the floating tanker oil ends in a couple of weeks. The world better start fo follow what China has done and is doing, go green. As always, great work Dr. Krugman

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Karel Tripp
4月1日
Edited

Once again he threatens to withdraw from the NATO Treaty because the NATO allies saw the idiocy of bombing Iran without a plan. The only time Article 5 of the Treaty was enacted was by the US after 9/11. As a defensive alliance the allies rushed to help and despite massive public protest the UK supported the invasion of Iraq. It has learned its lesson.

It is highly likely Iran will seek retribution on US soil. Who will the US be able to call on then? Surely Congress must approve the US withdrawal from the Treaty? Oh, forgot they are on their Spring break……..

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Müller Bæ
4月1日

Well, Trump has clearly "misunderstood" what Article 5 is all about.

NATO is already a piece of paper only, thanks to previous statements (on Greenland) by Trump and NATO countries have now decided and are acting with increased spendings.

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Elizabeth Crawford
4月1日

NATO is a defensive treaty, BTW. It doesn’t mean Europe can invade Russia or anyone else. It only means if Russia invades Europe it meets the whole group. Once when we went to the Pine Ridge Reservation, we were taken out to the buffalo range. There was a group of buffalo lolling and wandering about eating. Our guide said we could get out of the car if we wanted to, and our son and his friend did get out and walk a few steps toward the buffalo. There was a magic swirl of energy among the buffalo and suddenly there was a solid, stolid wall of huge burly heads with sharp horns facing us. They didn’t attack, but they were pretty clear that they knew we were there and we shouldn’t attack either. That’s NATO. Even without the US they are formidable. They need to concentrate on how formidible their alliance is, rather than dithering about the imperfections.

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Karel Tripp
4月1日

What is not understood is that The Treaty is as much a deterrent as a commitment to support allies. It needs to survive with or without the US and with new committed members who can be relied on.

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Mark Brandon
4月1日

Great post Paul. Minor point of detail. The source material book you cite (which is a classic as you suggest) is actually entitled 'On The Psychology Of Military Incompetence'.

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Daniel Howley
4月1日

Trump can be expelled forthwith. The fate of children killed while at school can instruct us in how awful life can be whatever our system of government. If they didn't intend to favor Iran's brutality towards its people they should have considered the means which they employed to that end. Easy to see that the Iranian people are expendable to Trump and Hegseth and Netanyahu and Ben-Gvir. Of course they didn't care about children in Iran and Lebanon or in Gaza and the West Bank. If this year spells an end to their term in power that will still be something to celebrate even with the unmitigated losses they have incurred against everyone on earth. Maybe Canada and Mexico will lead the Americas to a better future. The worst losses people can ever feel, happen everyday.

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Martha Morningsong
4月1日

Thank you, Paul. That was truly depressing but it had to be said.

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Christopher J O'Shea V
4月1日

DATELINE KYIV - DAY 1498 : 4424

Good post. Timely, insightful and thought-provoking commentary. While we are in general agreement with the premise that the political decision to go to war with Iran was deeply flawed, it's important to remember that by all appearances our armed forces have acquitted themselves thus far with distinction.

Blessed be the peacemakers.

V/r - IB

An American in Ukraine

(2019 - Present)

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George Meikle
4月1日

So we attacked the Apache again. And lost again. Ameica West, 1850 to about 1900, you did not do anything West of the Mississipi without worrying about the Apache. They owned the West at that time and routinely wiped out settlements and individual ranchers. But not all. Some they bypassed with negotiation-they got a cut, and shear conflict avoidance-the US Army was effictive and present close to the spared operators. So we went after Iran in the SOH, a geographic back yard for them, and a asymmetric battlefield. Small weapons, easily made and launched and hidden from preemptive strikes, and Iran PT boats (call them what they are! US very effectively used PT boats in WW2 Pacific) can be brought against large capital oil ships and other expensive cargo vessels, with impunity allowing as to difficulty intercepting these attacks. Not impossible to defend-but each ship has to be defended in numbers, and there will be kill ratios. That is not permitted in merchant sailing. But now the beans are well on the floor, how will any sane shipping environment be restored?

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Eileen Keim
4月1日

You're right. Dammit.

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The Musings of the Big Red Car
4月1日
Edited

Krugman, a guy who vouched for the smarts of Biden, is an unlikely source to evaluate the success of a military operation.

If you saw that Duke v UConn game, you are already wary of calling the winning team before the final buzzer -- because face it, you're smart and you've never been on the receiving end of a 2,000 lbs bomb.

Stop for a second -- on H Hour of D Day did you think the US/Israel would own the skies over Iran -- bloody air supremacy -- to the extent that B-52s and A-10s and Attack Helicopters would be sharing the skies?

American EW, standoff weapons, and raw tech muscle knocked out the Iranian air defenses in the first 30 minutes.

The US has an arsenal of more than 250,000 precision guided bombs of all sizes with pinpoint accuracy. These are dumb bombs kitted out with a strapped on guidance system. Nothing that even smells like a drone or a missile or an IRGC HQ will survive.

So, yeah, every military industrial complex headquarters, manufacturing plant, warehouse stockpiling munitions (missiles, drones) will disappear.

In the last 24 hours, Iran launched 3 waves of missile and drone attacks -- 12 total munitions. All BTW intercepted. This is the dividend from decapitation and the wholesale finding and killing launchers.

This just gets better and better.

So, while I am not prepared to schedule the Victory Day parade yet, I am going to hold off on getting my funeral suit cleaned and pressed cause, well, it's bloody Krugman.

Hang in there. Trump has this under control. Cheers.

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Made Simple for MAGA
4月1日

And yet, the Straight of Hormuz remains closed and the cost of filling the tank of your big red car keeps climbing.

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Elizabeth Crawford
4月1日

Sounds like you are whistling past the graveyard, Big Red Car. What do you think is the end-game for this bombing of Iran? You can’t bomb a country into submission. It would take boots on the ground, god forbid. And their memories are long and their hatred is fiery. Plus, Trump took care to get rid of anyone in the State Department with knowledge of Iran before he started his stupid war. So what is the end-game? They still have their uranium and they hate us even more than before. The best part of this whole disaster is that the transition to renewables will be pushed along. Maybe you would be well-advised to get a smaller red car.

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The Musings of the Big Red Car
4月3日

The end game is clear as it has been from the beginning:

1. Regime change/regime reform that can guide Iran to becoming a secular state and can adhere to the following requirements.

2. Iran can have no nukes, no highly enriched uranium from which to make nukes, conduct no research on nukes/enrichment, and can have no uranium enriched to higher than 3.67% -- the level required for nuclear power generation and they can buy that on the open market.

3. Iran must surrender all uranium enriched to more than 3.67% and must surrender all centrifuges of any kind.

4. Iran can have no nuclear power generation in which the spent nuclear fuel can be processed into plutonium.

5. Iran cannot make or possess short/intermediate/long range ballistic missiles. All manufacturing capability must be destroyed.

6. Iran cannot make or possess drones of any kind that can be converted to military use. All manufacturing capability must be destroyed.

7. Iran cannot support terrorism within or outside its borders.

8. At all times Iran must be subject to unannounced inspections to prove the then current status of the above.

9. Iran must become a democracy and hold elections within six months of the end of hostilities.

10. Those who committed war crimes, crimes against humanity, or crimes against the Iranian people must be identified, apprehended, charged, tried, and punished.

11. All state revenue derived from natural resources -- oil, gas, coal -- will be held in trust for the to be formed new government.

12. Iran cannot possess an army, navy, or air force and can only have a coast guard associated with the regulation of maritime traffic and fishing.

13. The Strait of Hormuz will be administered and managed by a consortium of local countries who use it or who are located on it.

The "agreement" that is going to be negotiated (I don't think the regime will ever enter into serious, good faith negotiations as they are currently constituted.) is not a treaty; it is terms of surrender just like the Japanese surrender at the end of World War II.

How much of this becomes reality, we shall see, but the regime as it existed is gone in great measure and more of it needs to be destroyed.

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Elizabeth Crawford
4月3日

Absurd. Sounds so much like Putin’s requirements for Ukraine. I’m not cear why we get to dictate what Iran can and can’t do. Plus, regime change worked so well in Libya, in Iraq, in Gaza, in Viet Nam, good idea — let’s go ahead, even though they aren’t really threatening us., Besides, Epstein files.

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Barbara
4月1日

Well said, Dr. Krugman. I would add that this brand of stupidity and the resultant bad military decisions are driven by ego. It's simply dressed up in religious fervor. As others have pointed out, the end is typical of Trump: let others clean up the mess. After all, he's got a ballroom to build and Cuba to take over.

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Gramsci
4月1日

Oh, on this one, I don't agree with Paul. I have spent time with officers or one of our branches, including generals, and have never seen them act like that. Of course, there may be others that did but I never met them. I was also impressed with both their deep knowledge of Military History and some great libraries on the bases. I could see Philips O'Brien having a great conversation with many of them. In addition, JFK and LBJ attempted to intellectualize war by bringing in Robert McNamara, who. brought in his people, to run the Department of Defense by slide-rule. How'd that work out? War is a messy, deadly, and costly enterprise. Remember, at least so far, it is civilian politicians that have the final word in military matters here. So let's start there.

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Scott McKie
4月1日

Boy are you close to the truth about the US Military Leadership.

but I have a question that I hope you also consider along with your piece here -- because they are totally intertwined":

As a WW II US ARMY Officer's "brat" and US Navy Vet (enlisted - early Vietnam) -- who "...did my job..." and am now severely physically disabled for it:

--- how is it that this present US Military Leadership isn't being called-out - on the American public carpet for totally dishonoring themselves - and allowing all of what has transpired in this second Trump administration?

I'm asking: - because there is a complete double standard that has been put in place "by" the US Military Leadership - for multiples of decades - which you might want to check out - as you work with facts.

The fact is: -- the US Military Enlisted person's Oath of Allegiance is to protect the Constitution and obey the orders from the President (of the day): -- as defined as being legal under the UCMJ (Uniform Code of Military Justice) most likely Articles 90 and 92 - which command that:

--- it is illegal to either issue or follow (obey) an illegal order- and that the individual is to make up his or her mind as to the legality of any order - inferred from "anyone".

The Officer's Oath of Allegiance - however is very specific.

It is an Oath of Allegiance; sworn to only one thing -- the Constitution.

There is nothing concerning any President.

There is nothing concerning any Appointee.

There is nothing concerning any Government -- just the Constitution.

Furthermore: -- it is next very specific as to what the newly Commissioned Officer swears to do:

--- "...to fight all enemies, foreign or domestic...".

It are these last words of their Oaths of Allegiance - that our present Military Leadership and recently retired Officers - are waxing poetic on various Cable News Shows are totally dishonoring:

--- this non-action thus aiding and abetting the Republican Party's planed (Project 2025 and 2026) "...coup-d'etat... from within.

It's not a matter of stupidity on their part.

By definition - it is a demonstrable overt act of Treason against the Constitution -- because they are not only "allowing" the illegal actions of this Government and it's "Leader" - they are aiding and abetting those act - by "playing soldier" - which has already cost the lives of both American citizens on American soil - by an American Political Party formed "Gestapo".

And military personnel had been killed under their watch - while THE LEADER wears a golf-cap.

You have never pulled a punch on anything I've read.

I hope you don't' now.

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Mary Ann Simmons
4月1日

Love the Bread and Roses poster. Watching this at 10pm and now I have to try and sleep. The US could have intervened when the people were demonstrating against the regime, before 100k were imprisoned, killed, but instead they have merely blown up a bunch of stuff for no good reason. We seem to be good at mindless bluster and not much else.

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Elizabeth Crawford
4月1日

Thank you, Mary Ann Simmons, this is a very timely reminder that timing is everything. When Trump told the demonstrating Iranians that help was on the way, he should have followed up with actual help, instead of letting the regime slaughter tens of thousands. Then he waited until the demonstrators were exhausted and went home, and THEN he bombed, and the first day he killed not only the head of the regime but most of the peope who could have offered an alternative. And now he is indiscriminately bombing even the people who survived the demonstrations. It makes me hang my head in shame to have this president. What an idiot.

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Mary Ann Simmons
4月1日

Thanks, Elizabeth. This is not the first time the Shining City on a Hill has let down protestors and foreign citizens desperate for democracy whom we have encouraged. Think Arab Spring. This time however, the timing and the method suggest something even more sinister.

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Elizabeth Crawford
4月1日

Like, follow the money — the market is going up and down according to what Trump says he is doing or not doing. Is that what you are referring to by “sinsiter?”

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A-L Foster
4月1日

A very reasonable comment. As a British person I am embarrassed by many aspects of our military history, but wouldn't you think that lessons had been learnt from it? No. A good comment was made recently that Hegseth loves tactics but doesn't understand the meaning of strategy: he likes to order the dropping of things that make a loud bang and kill people, but has no idea whatever what their consequences will be, nor does he care. His boss seems quite content with this.

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lt coleperson
4月1日
Edited

Devastatingly, incredibly true. As an American, I imagine I’m more embarrassed than you. Blimey. “InconTHEIVable!”

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Hicks, Alexander
4月1日
Edited

"So the world’s greatest military power went to war against a fourth rate nation whose military budget would be rounding error in our defense spending. And it appears that we lost." Hmmm.A little overly simplified. Incompetence? Sure. But perhaps the biggest gaffe simply was getting into the War, for it's not easy to "win" over a persistent adversary.TakeVietnam, Vietnam and France ,1946-1954. North Vietnam and us (and the Saigon regjme) for nearly two decades. Vietnam and China, February-March, 1979. Dubya's initiation of the Iraq and Afghan catastrophes.

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Gary Ostroff
4月1日

Is this MILITARY incompetence? Did the Pentagon Brass come up with this fiasco, or was it straight from Hogseth & Trumpy. My point being that we may have a competent military - I wouldn’t know - but they are ignored.

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Sara P
4月1日

Thanks Paul. You are 100%

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Commenter Man
4月1日

Thank you Dr. Krugman, for deciphering the Truth social posts for what they are, a confession. Dear Leader next said "Iran is losing" and "Begging to make a deal" (per BBC). It's uncanny how that resembles "I won in 2020". Seems like creating an alternate reality before running away.

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Janet Carter
4月1日

47 is ruining the global economy!

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THE END OF THE WORLD SHOW
4月1日

We should actually be grateful. This could have been way way worse. And I’m.sure it has nothimg to do with Pete Jegseth havimg beem caught tradimg munitions stocks leading up to the invasion forcing him to cancel the deals. One way to call off a war.

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Federico
4月1日
Edited

Dr. Kruegman, since European governments will have to repair the damage done by the USA, why we Europeans should we continue to use the petrodollar if Iran demands other currencies?

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Tammy Mackinnon
4月1日

Honestly, all you really had to do was be alive in the 70s. And conscious, I guess. Trump was arguably one of those two.

Also, Trump is nothing more than a walking, talking, v large orange turd of an ID. Developmentally speaking, things went awry very early for Trump. No Superego. And no Ego. Just an ID. That’s problematic, not just for us, but for the whole world.

(And America really would be Great Again if the majority of the populace did not vote for a felon. How the hell hard can that even be?)

Trump’s being ALL ID is a problem, bc atavistic is all he knows. Might IS Right in the Lizard Brain. (Aka the amygdala. Or the limbic system.) It’s frankly unfortunate he ever learned to talk.

Does anyone remember the lounge lizard scene in Hunter Thompson’s Fear & Loathing in Las Vegas? He and his 500-lb Samoan attorney are doing an impossible amount of every recreational drug in existence at that time, so when I go into the lounge, everybody is a lizard. An actual lizard.

That is Donald Trump is the world. Not as lizards. But through the slitty eyes of a lizard.

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Don B
4月1日

Has it been much better in the past? Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, and now Iran. You would think that with all these learned individuals in these various think tanks advising the president we wouldn’t end up in these absurd wars. With Trump, of course, he could order a ground invasion tomorrow. Or perhaps he just got bored today. Well, back to the golf course!

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Robot Bender
4月1日

You have to wonder how many of the people in the think tanks have been in combat, planned and executed operations, etc.

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Don B
4月1日

Agreed. You do have to wonder.

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Peter in Toronto
4月1日

The great question in a banana republic (which America now is) is where is the military? The classic moment is when the military decide enough is enough, and the caudillo rides in to stem the tide of chaos. Where are they?????????????????

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Elizabeth Crawford
4月1日

The cavalry gave up its horses years ago. :-)

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AMWF
4月1日

I hae ma doots he even knows America lost. The ends were supposed tae justify the means - a person without any ability tae self relect is never going tae appreciate the yawning gap between sense & the crazed abandon in glory chasing.

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George Patterson
4月1日

As friend of mine put it "Brute force has an elegance all its own."

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Pam Birkenfeld
4月1日

Without any details about what the situation was, I can tell you that a neighbor of mine who is a retired war college professor stood up in a meeting recently about a developer’s proposing an outsized development in an inappropriate place. He said something like this: “ this is a classic mistake like the military makes. They have a good plan but they use it in the wrong situation. It might work well elsewhere and some other time, but not in this place and time.” I guess nobody listened to him at the Pentagon.

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Tommytoes
4月1日

Love the new nickname for Pete, Dumb McNamara.

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Frank
4月1日

Does Dixon discuss the Gallipoli Battle?

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Aelliot
4月1日

Why the rest of our lives??

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David Marden
4月13日

Our military and political leaders in Vietnam focused on the wrong metrics - body count - and meaningless optics - how sharp the uniforms of H.Q. officers in Saigon looked. Sound familiar?

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Mike Fisher
4月12日

Spot on and something I’ve been screaming since before Hegseth was confirmed. I served 33 years, am a combat veteran, retired O-6 with background in war planning (I am JOPES certified) and have completed my Joint Professional Military Education Level I and II, and hold a master’s degree in National Security and Strategic Studies from the US Naval War College with an area of expertise in Middle Eastern studies focusing on Islamic theocracies. As soon as I heard Pete Hegseth was being considered for SECDEF, I read his book, War on Warriors. I have been trying to help people understand the mistake in having someone SO incompetent leading our military. He is like a whiny, uneducated, inexperienced and poorly trained junior officer who holds grudges being given the keys to the kingdom. Great assessment and I agree - the damage this administration has done will be nearly impossible to undo.

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Alexis Pinn
4月6日

Paul, your discussion of Norman Dixon's "The Psychology of Military Incompetence" resonates deeply, especially the idea that an overreliance on brute force and anti-intellectualism leads to devastating outcomes. It makes me think about the commanders in my own dark sci-fi, who constantly grapple with the crushing psychological burden of their decisions and the moral compromises inherent in leadership. That internal struggle is often far more brutal than any external combat.

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Lorene Melvin
4月5日

A catastrophic stroke right now would be helpful...

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Patricia DeSocio
4月5日

https://www.facebook.com/share/1JncWRWDqi/

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Nancy Parker
4月5日

Donny has been listening to Pete too much.

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Nancy Parker
4月5日

Sure looks like we might be prepared to do hostage exchange for the pilot.

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Terri Young
4月5日

Excellent! Thank you

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BrighterDaze
4月4日

Fourth-rate nation? It’s becoming increasingly clear that Iran is a great power. Obviously, not on the level of China, Russia, or the US, but they’ve shown they have the means to throw the world into economic chaos.

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Jim Eden
4月4日

You’re right about most things here but not about Iran. Iran has a 99% literacy rate including among women and is an intellectual powerhouse in technology and engineering. Iran is the world’s oldest Civilization rivaling China with 5000 pm years of Cultural Heritage

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Becky Stephens
4月4日

From a well-read, but very ordinary American, I can tell you that the objective of this war is absolutely to distract from everything Epstein, and domestic unrest and low polling numbers. There wasn’t EVER a reason to start a war with IRAN, and by doing so, the US has opened up a Pandora’s box that will never eve be truly closed again, at least not in my lifetime. Watching various political pundits walk a fine line of attempting a bi-partisan approach to explaining the war is somehow more ridiculous than Trump explaining it - we expect lies and incoherence from him. The news has certain variable to contend with, I know, but watching them try to make certain ideas fit, and provide some type of justification just make THEM look stupid. There is no reason for this war, and the US truly deserves to lose …