美国学者米尔斯海默：日本认为可以挑衅中国却不面临经济报复，是对现代地缘经济的根本误解！

 美国学者米尔斯海默：日本认为可以挑衅中国却不面临经济报复，是对现代地缘经济的根本误解！

以下為全文的中文翻譯：

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當我檢視日本與中國之間日益升高的對抗時，最突出的一點，是東京對地緣經濟力量平衡的**嚴重誤判**。日本面對的並不是一個可以透過外交操作施壓或嚇阻的區域競爭者；它面對的是**全球最大的製造基地**、**全球供應鏈的核心樞紐**，以及**戰略性產業關鍵材料的主導生產者**。

從戰略層面來看，日本把自己放在一個危險的斷層線上：一邊是逐漸衰退的霸權──美國；另一邊是崛起的對等競爭者──中國。這對任何國家來說都已是非常脆弱的處境，但日本選擇在對華立場上更加強硬，特別是涉入台灣問題，這是一場**錯誤估算**，削弱了日本自身的經濟穩定，也危及其長期安全。

中國如今掌握著對日本極大的結構性經濟槓桿，而這並非抽象概念──它紮根於供應鏈、市場准入，以及關鍵資源依賴。對半導體、電動車與先進製造至關重要的稀土、石墨、鎵和其他礦物，主要由北京控制。日本若缺乏這些材料，其科技能力根本無法維持。

因此，認為東京可以挑釁北京而不遭受經濟報復，是對現代地緣經濟學的**根本誤解**。

在一個由**工業能力決定戰略力量**的世界中，中國掌握上風。當北京暗示可能限制旅遊、發動消費者抵制、或實施出口管制時，它並不是採取象徵性的壓力，而是在明確告訴日本：你的脆弱點是真實且可被利用的。

**旅遊層面**也呈現同樣現象。過去十年，日本的服務業愈來愈依賴中國遊客，而中國旅客占了日本入境觀光收入的最大份額。這種依賴讓旅遊本身變成地緣經濟工具。

當中國警告自家民眾不要前往日本時，東京幾乎立即感受到衝擊──尤其是那些高度依賴中國消費力的都會區旅宿與零售業。一個外交失誤就能引發如此巨大的經濟震盪，足以顯示日本在多深的程度上融入中國的消費生態系。

在二十一世紀，經濟力量不再只是 GDP 或出口量的問題，而是**一國透過不對稱依賴，影響另一國內部穩定的能力**。

When I examine Japan's growing confrontation with China，what stands out is how profoundly Tokyo has misjudged，the geoeconomic balance of power Japan is not dealing with a regional competitor，It can pressure or deter through diplomatic maneuvering，It is dealing with the world's largest manufacturing base，the central hub of global supply chain and the dominant producer of essential industrial materials in strategic term，Japan has positioned itself at the fault line between a declining hegemon，

the United States and a rising peer competitor China，this would already be a precarious position for any state，but Japan's choice to adopt a more assertive posture toward China，particularly regarding Taiwan represents a miscalculation that undermines both its economic stability and its longterm security，China now wields enormous leverage over Japan's economic structure and this This leverage is not abstract，

It is rooted in supply chains market access and critical resource，dependencies rare earth elements，graphite gallium and other minerals，essential for semiconductors，electric vehicles and advanced manufacturing are overwhelmingly controlled by Beijing，Japan cannot sustain its technological capabilities without these and the idea that Tokyo could provoke Beijing without facing economic retaliation reflects，

a fundamental misunderstanding of modern geoeconomics In a world where industrial capacity determines strategic power China holds the upper hand when Beijing hints at restrictions on travel，consumer boycotts or export controls，It is not engaging in symbolic pressure，It is signaling that Japan's vulnerabilities are real and exploitable，The tourism dimension is also feeling Over the past decade，

Japan's service sector has become increasingly dependent on Chinese visitors who account for the largest share of inbound tourism revenue，This dependence transformed tourism into a geoeconomic tool When China warns its citizens against visiting Japan，Tokyo feels the impact almost immediately，especially in urban centers，where hospitality and retail industries rely heavily on Chinese consumption，The fact that a single diplomatic mistake can trigger such economic disruption shows how deeply integrated Japan has become into China's consumer ecosystem Economic power in the 21st century is no longer simply a matter of

GDP or export volumes，It is about the ability to shape another state's internal stability through controlled asymmetries。