習近平數十年來為與美國的冷戰做準備

中國領導人習近平的戰略借鑒了他對蘇聯失敗的理解

經過

魏玲玲

2025年7月4日晚上10:00ET

習近平數十年來為與美國的冷戰做準備

中國領導人習近平的戰略借鑒了他對蘇聯失敗的理解

經過

魏玲玲

2025年7月4日晚上10:00ET

中國領導人習近平經常談到蘇聯解體對中國的教訓。

在中美衝突中，川普總統正在發動經濟攻勢。而中國領導人習近平則在打一場冷戰。

習近平帶著他準備多年的宏偉戰略進入貿易談判。據北京的政策顧問稱，這項策略的靈感來自於他對第一次冷戰期間蘇聯所犯錯誤的理解。

顧問表示，習近平深知美國持續的經濟和軍事優勢，因此尋求避免直接對抗，同時在一場曠日持久的全方位競爭中穩住中國的地位。

習近平的目標是實現毛澤東所說的「戰略相持」——一種持久的平衡，美國的壓力變得可控，中國贏得時間趕上美國

「對中國而言，『戰略僵局』是可預見的未來最現實、最理想的結果，」克萊蒙特麥肯納學院教授、季刊《中國領導力觀察》主編裴敏欣表示。 “戰略耐心、資源節約和戰術靈活性對於實現這一僵局都至關重要。”

從某種程度上來說，北京正在推行一種遊擊戰，這種策略源於亨利·基辛格對非對稱衝突本質的分析：“常規軍隊不贏就是輸。遊擊隊不輸就是贏。”

中國浙江省一個物流中心內待出口的中國商品。

太平洋上一艘航空母艦上的中國噴射戰鬥機。

習近平從蘇聯解體中汲取的一大教訓是經濟：蘇聯將所有經濟重心押在重工業上，並專注於發展能源和武器裝備。相較之下，北京則試圖實現全產業鏈生產，在鞏固中國經濟的同時，也能利用世界市場對中國產品的需求，抵禦來自美國的貿易和技術限制。

另一個支柱是地緣政治，目標是避免蘇聯式的孤立。這包括削弱與美國的聯盟，同時推動北京所謂的“多邊結盟”，即各國與多個全球大國接觸，而不是單方面選擇一方。

該戰略的另一個關鍵在於繼續中國的軍事建設，但又不與美國進行代價高昂的軍備競賽。過去三年，中國的官方國防預算以約7.2%的穩定速度成長。雖然這項成長速度超過了中國的整體經濟成長率，但低於其國內生產毛額的1.5%。

至關重要的是，其主要支柱是進一步加強共產黨對社會各個層面的控制。

習近平經常把蘇聯解體當作對中國的教訓。「蘇聯為什麼解體？蘇聯共產黨為什麼解體？」2013年1月，習近平執掌中共後不久，在一次對黨內高層官員的閉門講話中說道。「一個重要原因是意識形態領域的競爭非常激烈。」換句話說，黨的權威不容任何挑戰。

轉折點

中國學習蘇聯的歷史由來已久。 1953年，也就是習近平出生的那一年，毛澤東發起了一場運動，試圖將蘇聯模式推廣為中國的政治、經濟和軍事體系。習近平的父親習仲勳是一位與毛澤東並肩作戰的黨內革命家，他在20世紀50年代末前往莫斯科，當時中國幾乎沒有工業，習仲勳參觀了當地的工業基地，學習了當地的運營和技術。

這深刻地塑造了習近平的青年時代，使他對蘇聯的價值觀、歷史和文化產生了根深蒂固的敬仰。一些黨內人士稱之為“俄羅斯情結”，這種情結如此根深蒂固，以至於近三十年的中蘇關係破裂也未能動搖它。

但到了2000年代末，習近平成為政治新星之時，蘇聯解體了，他的觀點也隨之轉變。身為精英黨校中央黨校的校長，他以蘇聯解體為警示，強調意識形態的衰敗和政治控制的喪失是蘇聯解體的關鍵原因。

2012年掌權後，習近平委託拍攝了一部關於蘇聯解體的紀錄片，將最後一位蘇聯領導人米哈伊爾·戈巴契夫描繪成一個背棄黨的惡棍。

但即便如此，北京對冷戰的研究也集中在中國如何避免類似的滅亡；習近平尚未將中國視為與美國進行超級大國衝突的競爭者

1957年，中國毛澤東訪問莫斯科期間檢閱了儀仗隊。

轉捩點是川普在2018年和2019年的第一個任期內與中國發動的貿易戰。他的「讓美國再次偉大」口號向習近平展示了美國維護其霸權的決心。據中國顧問稱，習近平領導階層常常被川普的施壓策略打得措手不及，於是開始重新評估冷戰。新的焦點是如何與美國進行冷戰並最終獲勝。

2020 年，當新冠疫情幾乎切斷雙邊關係時，習近平推出了其新冷戰戰略的第一個重要組成部分：在「雙循環」的模糊標籤下——在國內生產中國需要的東西，並將產品出口到海外——他啟動了一項全力以赴的努力，以更好地保護中國免受外部衝擊，特別是來自美國的衝擊。

當現任總統拜登延續川普對華強硬政策時，習近平與美國打持久戰的決心變得更加迫切。

正是在那時，北京更加堅定地表明，它希望獲得與美國平等的待遇，而且至關重要的是，它進一步與俄羅斯拉近關係。 2022年初，就在俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭之前，北京和莫斯科宣布他們的友誼「沒有界限」。

然而，習近平謹慎地避免效法蘇聯，打造一個高度孤立的東歐集團。儘管他意識到中國可能需要脫離美國，但他確保中國不會與世界其他國家隔絕，而是保持其與全球經濟的融合，特別是與低收入國家的融合。

為了反駁有關中國透過掠奪性貸款困住斯里蘭卡和尚比亞等國以獲取影響力的指控，習近平及其團隊對數萬億美元的「一帶一路」基礎設施計劃進行了徹底改革，以使該計劃的貸款對於中國融資的接受者來說更加可持續。

歐巴馬政府前高級國家安全官員、現任喬治城大學教授埃文·梅德羅斯 (Evan Medeiros) 表示：“中國的經濟和外交政策都是為與美國進行長期鬥爭而製定的。”

爭取時間

中國顧問表示，習近平對黨的機構的建議是耐心，相信全球力量平衡將不可避免地向中國傾斜。

這種穩重的平靜旨在與習近平眼中的美國亂局以及川普政府不斷變化的對華姿態形成對比。短短幾個月內，白宮就從對中國施加最大關稅壓力、試圖孤立這個世界第二大經濟體，轉變為如今尋求達成一項雙方都做出讓步的廣泛協議。

北京利用這種環境為自己謀利，為未來的競爭設定條件。

川普政府解散了美國的對外援助機構，這給了北京在地緣政治競爭加劇之際試圖介入的機會。儘管美國已經針對中國學生簽證，並正在大幅削減美國之音等機構，但中國政府卻為美國社交媒體網紅提供全額資助的旅行，希望藉此推廣「更酷的中國」。

習近平與俄羅斯總統普丁五月在克里姆林宮舉行會談。

美國內容創作者 IShowSpeed 在社群媒體上擁有超過 1.2 億粉絲，今年 4 月，他訪問中國 10 天，為北京贏得了軟實力。他發布的影片廣受好評，展現了他對中國高鐵和無處不在的電動車的驚嘆，並在全球引起轟動。

除了貿易談判，北京還想恢復華盛頓認為浪費時間的那種反覆出現的「對話」。對習近平來說，這是一種拖延時間的策略。

克萊蒙特麥肯納學院的裴教授表示：“他們完全有意採取強硬手段，拖延此事。”

中國的戰略能否成功還遠未可知。

習近平為進一步推動中國大國競爭而採取的政策，有可能加劇其經濟困境。中共的指令性控制正在扼殺私部門的活動，而旨在「萬物生產」的政策，尤其正在導致通貨緊縮週期不斷加深。

然而，對習近平來說，所有這些可能都是長期目標（即耗盡美國的精力）可以容忍的副作用。

基辛格 20 世紀 70 年代的高級經濟顧問羅伯特·霍馬茨 (Robert Hormats) 表示：“習近平的目標是取得技術領先地位，並在這場長期競爭中發揮更有影響力的作用。”

致函 Lingling Wei，信箱：Lingling.Wei@wsj.com

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關於新聞文章和新聞專欄的討論必須圍繞著報道主題進行。在觀點內容中，討論可以深入探討其他主題。本文的討論將於發表四天後結束。

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急診室

埃羅爾

3分鐘前

中國正在推行一項長遠的、經過深思熟慮的計劃，而美國則由兩黨領導人選擇一條自私的政治路線，只為下屆選舉收買選票。這讓中國在與美國領導人的談判中佔了優勢。

就川普而言，他似乎有一種執念，想要反覆達成“協議”，並認為這些協議可以向公眾展現為好協議，而不管這些協議是否真的對美國人有利。這讓中國在與川普的談判中佔了更大的優勢。

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大衛麥基

4分鐘前

中共邪惡。習近平邪惡。

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比爾一世

5分鐘前

你聽過共產黨領導人要求工人每小時生產1噸釘子的故事嗎？薪資微薄的工人認為，為了達到配額，1噸釘子就夠了。

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鉛

保羅鮑爾

10分鐘前

感謝 Lingling Wei 和《華爾街日報》的這篇文章，

中國正在經歷的經濟危機，包括房地產市場崩潰、高額債務水平、高青年失業率和人口斷崖，再加上貿易夥伴的對抗，給中國帶來了複雜的挑戰。

中國應對這些問題的策略可能包括經濟刺激、勞動市場改革、人口政策和國際適應等一系列措施。鑑於危機規模和持續的對抗，這些措施的有效性尚不確定。正如《一個大而美的法案》所概述的那樣，美國及其盟友的行動將影響中國的選擇，並可能迫使其重新評估全球戰略。其結果將取決於中國能否平衡內部穩定與外部壓力，而中國所面臨的挑戰相互關聯，使得這項任務更加艱鉅。

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南卡羅來納州

斯科特C

16分鐘前

任何分析，如果忽略中國未來十年人口結構崩潰、難以為繼的債務水準和不斷下滑的GDP，都是浪費時間。中國就像一座看起來很宏偉的建築，但當你走進去，卻發現它空空蕩蕩，樓層也尚未完工。它就像一隻紙老虎，渴望成為獅子。任何建立在謊言（中共）之上的東西都不會長久。

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路易斯桑托羅

19分鐘前

啊，這是一幅多麼光輝的習近平同志的肖像，他是黨的領導人，也是一個比我們的政府腐敗還要嚴重的騙局政府。

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注意：

尼克拉斯·比約恩

24分鐘前

習近平不需要費力“削弱美國的聯盟”，因為美國的總統注意力和戰略眼光都和貓一樣，他正忙於激怒和疏遠那些美國真正強大所需要的朋友。

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路易斯桑托羅

17分鐘前

哦，那我們以前的朋友們可以加入中國了。我猜他們一定會很高興。

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注意：

尼克拉斯·比約恩

5分鐘前

與昔日朋友斷絕關係，不等於投敵。但你非黑即白的思維模式，卻暴露了你許多的問題。

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聚丙烯

菲利普·普爾

28分鐘前

別忘了18兆美元的房地產泡沫破裂，導致9,000萬套房屋空置或未完工。這摧毀了中國中產階級的積蓄（大多數中產階級認為房地產是安全的選擇）。還有20%的青年失業率，用這些中國年輕人的話來說，他們“躺著不動”，也就是說他們陷入了困境。

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1 回覆

路易斯桑托羅

15分鐘前

是的，但《華爾街日報》看到了一項宏偉的策略（由一名共產主義者制定的……我明白）。

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屋宇署

比爾·德萊·亨特

36秒前

這些公寓，尤其是在旅遊景點，現在半價出售，您可以挑選室內裝潢。市場總是會調整的。中國經歷過更糟糕的情況，中共的政策幫助3.5億人擺脫了貧困（但自從毛澤東時代以來，他就像那些民族主義狂妄者一樣，是個災難）。

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勞倫斯·卡奇

37分鐘前

爭取時間、不失時機地爭取最終的戰略勝利，對中國來說當然是明智之舉。然而，由於過去的「獨生子女」政策，時間可能並不站在中國這邊。

簡而言之，中國可能先「老」後「富」。就連中國官員也對此感到擔憂。不像美國那樣，想進入中國的人並不多。這其中一定有原因吧？

（已編輯）

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急診室

埃羅爾

13分鐘前

勞倫斯：

獨生子女政策十年前就結束了。或許（或許不對）你說中國未富先老的說法是對的。但獨生子女政策帶來的人口問題只會持續兩到三代，因為獨生子女政策在2015年就結束了，而且實施的時間還不到兩代。

然而，中國停止控制人口成長的努力，如今正注定世界末日。中國的努力，加上像J.D.萬斯和埃隆·馬斯克這樣極其自私的人愚蠢至極地推動西方國家成為人類繁衍的“大工廠”，將導致世界人口在目前的80億人口基礎上進一步大幅增長。環境壓力將導致保護大氣、提供充足的清潔淡水、食物、電力和其他必需品更加困難。大多數人的生活水平將會下降……但像馬斯克和川普/萬斯這樣的西方億萬富翁以及他們的政治盟友，卻能夠讓他們的工廠繼續運轉，讓他們各自居住在各自的莊園裡，乘坐私人飛機四處飛行。

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廁所

韋恩·克利福德

21分鐘前

也許是安全邊界？

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布萊恩V

26分鐘前

哎呀，中國的富人正在盡一切努力將他們的錢轉移到國外。

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工作小組

瓦利·吉

38分鐘前

鑑於我們的國家正被一群愚蠢的官員和無知的管家所統治，中國將在未來四年內吃掉我們的午餐，無論需要多長時間來修復川普所破壞的東西。

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布萊恩V

26分鐘前

不要害怕……拜登早已離去。

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京東

詹森·DS

38分鐘前

這裡的大多數評論員最近都沒有去過中國！

請查看 YT：

中國商業內幕 - 中國工廠六週內製造消防車的成本僅40萬美元。而在美國，製造消防車的成本則需要四年，高達200萬美元。

它對帕利塞茲大火造成的1000多億美元的損失做出了解釋。

無論民主黨還是共和黨掌權，我們的問題都是系統性的。

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約翰·康韋爾

40分鐘前

I understand what you are saying ,but Ji seems to have learned from past mistakes and sitting back waiting for him to screw up might not be proactive enough.

Buckley Hayes

45 minutes ago

No President has harmed US interests more than Trump and his cult.

Henry Fuss

40 minutes ago

You have no idea what you are talking about and remember you voted for Biden Harris losers.

James Schaad

51 minutes ago

you have to ask, how much longer will he be around?

Keith Goldberg

52 minutes ago

The true measure of what the world will become will be taken in the not-too-distant future when XI, Putin, and Trump are dead and gone. Those who take their places, especially if they are much younger, will hold the keys to whether or not ours will be a world of conflict or coexistence.

(Edited)

P K VERLEGER

56 minutes ago

If AI is critical to future economic growth China has just gained a huge advantage. China has almost 5 times as much electricity generated from solar power and 4 times as much generated by wind power as the US. These are the low cost sources of power. It is continuing to expand at a rapid rate while Trump's OBBB has just put a stop to US expansion.

The consulting firm ICF warns that the US may face power constraints by 2028 without sufficient capacity expansions which by their calculations come from solar and wind, As a result, China will have the low cost power to drive AI growth while the US can only watch with envy.

I imagine Xi asking his associates "how can China be so lucky?"

Fred Svaldi

5 minutes ago

Trump’s OBBB has not put a stop to US expansion of wind and solar. It has only reduced or eliminated government subsidies, which will force those industries to become more efficient and viable, with the potential to attract private capital. To Trump’s credit, he is pushing nuclear energy per his recent executive order, aiming to increase production by 300 gigawatts by 2050. So, you are incorrect when you say the US can only watch China with envy.

Brian V

23 minutes ago

Solar and Wind are available 4-6 hours a day. AI requires 24x7x365 power. Which is why China is building coal fired plants left and right. The US needs to get on board nuclear ASAP.

Lawrence Karch

30 minutes ago

The U.S. is said to have a 900 year supply of coal and maybe a 100 year supply of nat gas. The problem is they may have to burn it.

OTOH, if the question comes down to burning coal and nat gas or keeping the lights on, they will be burned.

Wahlee Gee

37 minutes ago

But we'll lead in coal! Drill baby Drill... let's get back to 1950. China can have the future.

James H

58 minutes ago

I think with China's extensive electronic social credit and surveillance systems, it's going to be lot harder to topple the CCP than it was in Eastern Europe or Russia.

China can just do what Canada did to the truckers. Immediately shut down their back accounts, transportation accounts and access to anything else on line.

(Edited)

Brian V

22 minutes ago

Well...look how much China has infected Canada. Vancouver is known as Hongcouver.

Leith Z

59 minutes ago

You know those little labels that say "Made in China?" We still manufacture them here in the U.S.A.

Kevin Kieswetter

1 hour ago

Both leaders are hamstrung by their parochial vision. China has a massive advantage with their workforce/military/PLAN. American foreign policy was ‘stronger” under Clinton but, is not getting value for its investment. Is a military dictatorship in America’s future?

Jeff Bolton

1 hour ago

Not touched on the article is China's demographics problems. Impacts of the decades of their "one child" policy are yet to be fully seen. The US, can offset and improve, its demographics problem with selective immigration. Non-Chinese are not lined up at China's borders trying to get in any way they can. Assuming we're smart enough to fix our obvious problems (lack of mining rare earth minerals, lack of manufacturing capacity for high tech products, lack of committed STEM students, etc.) it is still not too late to match China's capabilities.

It shouldn't take a "military dictatorship" to make these things happen, and likely wouldn't under one.

(Edited)

Alan Stewart

1 hour ago

Iran spent decades preparing for war with the U.S.

David Critchley

43 minutes ago

Iran, a technologically deficient society with modest GDP and one quarter the population of the US, cannot be fairly compared to China which is technologically advanced with a population four times the number of the US. China also appears to have far more intelligent people running it’s government than either Iran or the US.

Carlton Ellis

44 minutes ago

China isn't Iran.

Bad analogy.

Jeff Bolton

57 minutes ago

And might be able to win one if it was the US's intent to invade Iran. It was surprising that Iran wasn't better prepared to defend against aircraft and missile attacks. Maybe if they had spent more time on defensive systems rather than offensive ones they would have withstood Israel's attack more effectively.

Will Farrell

1 hour ago

Greed and prosperity will always produce conflict, at all levels within cultures, and outside your own culture or society. Whether it is Xi or Putin, or whoever, human nature is to strive to be the best....and not always done fair and square. We just are present for this chapter of it...

FRANK NOWICKE

1 hour ago

The overriding factor is demographics. Xi can plan all he wants. No babies no future.

Jeff Bolton

56 minutes ago

And decades of only boy babies, lots of frustrated Chinese men.

Brian V

20 minutes ago

Yeah well...those frustrated men are going to take it out on somebody..we'd better be prepared. Oh but...Slava Ukraini!

Jeff Bolton

10 minutes ago

Easier for them to take it out on Xi and the Party than us, hope that's where they focus.

R Kerr

1 hour ago

Vietnam will not pay tariffs. American consumers will pay tariffs on Vietnamese products. I don't understand why people don't remember that fact

Brian V

17 minutes ago

So far, the importers to the US have been eating the tariff. The thing people need to understand is that tariffs will give the advantage to the US businesses that are capable and able to produce great products. The companies that produce rubber dog poo toys and other very low margin products will never be competitive in the US. Great, keep stamping out poo toys in China..we'll pay $5 instead of $4.

Jeff Bolton

55 minutes ago

And we won't buy Vietnamese (or Chinese) products if competitively priced alternatives are available. No reason not to buy their T shirts and sneakers though.

James H

1 hour ago

Straw man argument. People understand tariffs are paid by consumers.

It's pretty hypocritical that Democrats, who never met a tax they didn't want to raise, are crying crocodile tears about tariffs.

I'd rather pay tariffs on Chinese goods than have the income tax raised.

James Harthouse

1 hour ago

ChatGPT: "China is indeed facing a banking crisis, primarily driven by a deepening real estate slowdown, weak consumer demand, and pressure on bank profitability. The property market, once China's growth engine, is now a drag: housing starts are down 68% from peak, and non-performing loans tied to property could reach 6.4% in 2025. This leaves banks holding mountains of debt that may never be repaid."

(Edited)

David OBlock

1 hour ago

China has two fatal flaws, the second worse than the first.

1) Their economy depends on the American Consumer. They already export to the rest of the world; there is no “other” largest consumer market on the planet.

2) Their Fascist spin on traditional Marxism DOES work better than traditional Communism, but it is not sustainable. Like pre-WWII Italy & Germany, they need to expand to strip anything or anyone valuable from other nations.

David Critchley

33 minutes ago

“Their economy depends on the American Consumer. ”

Only a bit over 14% of China’s exports go to the US, about the same as go to the EU. The biggest part of their trade is with the ASEAN countries.

Art Vedder

1 hour ago

How was this article allowed to be published when there are clear signs that the old guard is unhappy with Xi’s policies and has taken steps to weaken, if not remove, his influence? For those unfamiliar with Xi’s waning power, just watch any overseas Chinese news coverage on China.

Mrs.

(Edited)

R Kerr

1 hour ago

I don’t know what victory in a cold war looks like. If the US wins, do we get to continue to send our troops to many of the world’s countries? If China wins, I assume they will invade Taiwan, but then, what will they do, build roads all over the world by supplying loans at exorbitant interest rates? Or is China intent on conquering much of Asia? How would victory help the people of either country?

Jeff Bolton

52 minutes ago

Perhaps a better question is what does it mean to lose? That's the question we need to continue to focus on.

(Edited)

Wayne Clifford

1 hour ago

An empire must grow, or it will decay and die.

David Critchley

31 minutes ago

Do you speak of the US or China or both?

1 reply

Zeus Micro

1 hour ago

I don't understand why, Trump took the initiative to help Xi achieve his goals

David OBlock

1 hour ago

You are right in that you don’t understand.

James McIlree

1 hour ago

I'm with Zeus, I don't understand why Trump is helping Russia and China. Can you explain?

David OBlock

1 hour ago

I can explain your comments are wrong.

Michael Crawford

1 hour ago

While I agree with the majority of the comments that China's policies will likely lead to significant issues for them. Nonetheless, we could help ourselves, if we could get a consistent (Rep/Dem) agreed upon Foreign economic and defense strategy and policies that don't flip flop every 4 yrs. Slow and steady wins the race.

R Kerr

1 hour ago

We will continue to flip flop unless there is a drastic change in our politics. After a Republican get elected, the country becomes disgusted with their extreme politics. After a Democrat gets elected, the country gets digusted with their exreme politics. As long as both parties are so extreme, we will continue to flip flop.

Michael Crawford

1 hour ago

Well don't forget current Republican policies pretty well match was Clinton's Democrat policies of 1992-2000. So, in reality only one side has moved to the extreme. In that time, the population would agree on 90% of the issues, now I bet you can't find a single issue that is common. Putting that aside, it would seem we have a common enemy in China. A smart populus, don't know that we are, would insist on a unified strategy.

James Connelly

1 hour ago

Nixon and Kissinger made a strategic blunder in 1972 in throwing a lifeline to Mao's degenerating regime. They failed to let Mao's China collapse from its own internal rot and chaotic policies -- all because they failed to see the rot in Brezhnev's USSR and thought China would counterpoise Russia. A blunder of historic proportions!!

Jeff Bolton

45 minutes ago

Maybe, I'm not sure though that a billion people wouldn't have figured it out without that "lifeline," if it in fact constituted one. There's no historical "love" between Russians and Chinese and it is doubtful that that has changed much. As China takes more resources from eastern Russia I suspect the resentment, and resistance, of the Russian people will grow.

James Connelly

33 minutes ago

The suspicion about Siberia's resources is already growing, Indeed, it has never gone away. Mongolia and its resources, too, are at risk of being gobbled up like Tibet and Xinjiang into the Han maw.

James F

1 hour ago

Hopefully the quiet indications that Xi's absolute power is being opposed and eroded by opponents in the CCP will mitigate his stance against the US and western allies. In the best case scenario, Xi is sidelined or even defenestrated for a more moderate leader.

Wayne Clifford

1 hour ago

Hope is not a plan, though. Xi has already knocked out the Shanghai Group, a few years ago. He seems pretty ruthless.

Janson DS

1 hour ago

Won't happen!

Shawn Connors

1 hour ago

Representative Democracies plan by the decade but last centuries. Communist Dictatorships plan for the centuries, but last decades.

Jeff Facey

1 hour ago

I hope.

Bob Trevathan

1 hour ago

He would do well to drop the war blustering and concentrate on tapping all the global markets we are choosing to give up.

Jeff Bolton

44 minutes ago

Might be good advice for us as well.

Nick Politakis

1 hour ago

I have 3 words for XI: just for men.

Victor Lacca

1 hour ago

Within a decade 300 million Chinese workers expect to retire. That's people who no longer able to add to their economy. Worse, the government has invested much of this pension obligation into real estate and government projects. It is all set up to implode from the inside.

David OBlock

1 hour ago

And their one-child policy has killed their demographic survival.

Ross Windsor

2 hours ago

Well, sounds likeZi has really got it together. Yes, we cut back US AID. That doesn’t mean we aren’t giving. If they are filling the void we left, perhaps they will be funding trans-gender comic books. Suspect not.

I know they want to kick the dollar in the ditch. They thrive through thievery. Apparently their economic model doesn’t produce as much innovation as does our capitalistic model. Bummer for them.

Fei Ge

2 hours ago

You don't have to win by being stronger. You can win by being willing to lose more and endure suffering longer. Just ask the Viet Cong and Talibans.

(Edited)

B Syd

2 hours ago

True. Russia is a current example with their inability to take a relatively weak Ukraine in over two and a half years.

1 reply

Donald Vance

2 hours ago

No mention in here of:

China’s real estate collapse that is still hurting its economy. Ghost cities with roads to nowhere….

China’s over 20% youth unemployment

The CCP’s abolishment of private enterprise - as a threat to the CCP. China now being fully state owned companies has significantly put limits on growth.

China’s expansionary attacks into Tibet, Xinjiang, Hong Kong, and daily military drills around Taiwan - with Xinjiang being genocide of 1M Uighers and an attack on Taiwan being economic suicide.

The CCPs final gasp is the West abandoning reckless climate policies. Xi bet the CCP farm on selling junk green energy to cripple the West. This will leave Xi holding the green manufacturing bag - and create a collapse many times bigger than Evergrande.

David Boniface

2 hours ago

Communism lacks love. It will not prevail.

Jason S

2 hours ago

Um, did anyone see the Iranian missiles defeat everything the US and Israel had to stop them with? Do you really think the Chinese missiles are worse? Hmmm...

Michael Harley

38 minutes ago

No, didn’t see but a relatively few Iranian missiles get through. What I did see was U.S. & Israel dominate the sky over Iran, killing key Iranian military leaders & bombing without opposition Iran’s nuclear facilities, setting them back years or longer.

Show 2 more replies

F ALLEN Morgan

2 hours ago

It isn't all roses and sunshine for China. They're many roumors that Xi is gonna be replaced (in fact is already power wise out)...say by Fall 25. His aggressiveness has many of the CP worried. Also economically they are being hurt 'cause of the Tariffs - bankrupt companies/layoffs. High youth unemployment too. Not enough internal consumption to sustain and absorb all their production...and many other countries are protecting their industries. Real estate is still in a big crisis...the road initiative has been exposed for what it is. China states have debt problems too...many funded the over building and now the piper is here.

Mike S

2 hours ago

China's biggest problem is that it's run by communists. They see it as an advantage, but in the end nobody wants to live under an oppressive government run by a single party who's primary concern will always been the maintenance of it's own power.

They fear revolution over all; the US just had a revolution in which nobody directly involved in the political process was killed or even jailed, yet fundamental changes in governing priorities are implemented.

Xi sees the most fundamental strength of the US as chaos and that's his worst mistake.

Paul McMurry

2 hours ago

Soviet failures were an economic system based on central planning, which can never work. Xi seems to be repeating this key mistake in his own country.

C Cook

1 hour ago

China tried to minimize central planning, but ran into such massive corruption at the local level, Xi has to return it. Limits to money flow out of the country, along with SHOOTING officials for corruption has helped, but made business difficult for smaller companies and banks.

Meanwhile. effects of 'one child' policies and massive housing corruption limits Xi.

He has a huge military, I believe because of the imbalance of men to women, some say 100 million or more. The question is will the Generals want their men to actually do something, like invade a country?

Show 1 more reply

Ben Qurayza

2 hours ago

General Zhang Youxia seem to be gaining power in Beijing., increasingly overshadowing President Xi Jinping. Does that portend any changes in Chinese strategy?

James Schaad

47 minutes ago

i suspect during their august meeting there will be changes at the top

Jose Martinez

2 hours ago

Chess vs Checkers? Any sentient being should know who is playing what.

chad wichmann

2 hours ago

china has a very large demographic problem, time will not fix.

James McIlree

2 hours ago

So does the US. Which the US used to have a huge advantage in, due to immigration; which we also used to attract the best and brightest, due to the opportunities here.

Then came Trump and MAGA. Not so much now.

3 replies

rich ullsmith

2 hours ago

If Xi would compare Russian Dash Cam videos to Chinese Dash Cam videos, he would quickly realize there is nothing to be learned from Russia. The big lessons are 1) don't invade Afghanistan, and 2) don't pencil-whip the physics of a nuclear reactor.

C S SMITH

2 hours ago

Some good points, but very superficial. Still, no doubt Xi uses moneyl gains to build huge and unnecessary military. He has only one goal -- take out the United States. This "equilibrium" argument was always used by appeasers pushing redistribution and welfare to avoid confronting the USSR. The Soviets had zero interest in "equilibrium," and neither does Xi. For years we shunned "the arms race" until Reagan said, "OK, you want a race - let's race." And we won. Back then, though we had loyal Americans and a huge manufacturing base. The former is half gone and the defense manufacturing base badly shrunk or gone.

Nicholas Toth

2 hours ago

As per the article, their military spending is less than 1.5% GDP, and Trump is pushing for 5%. Military industrial complex in the US is getting crazy. Doesn't even include all the job orders US is expecting from allies increasing their budgets.

1 reply

Show 1 more reply

Richard Boucher

2 hours ago

Xi Has Spent Decades Preparing for a Cold War With the U.S.

What does that tell you? Despite what the 'smartest people in the room' said, perhaps China has always been bent on, at the minimum, regional domination of East Asia, primacy on the world stage, and an overturning of the existing world order. As such, conflict with the US was inevitable, regardless of any US actions other than surrender. The Western 'experts' were flat out wrong that economic prosperity would inevitably lead to a liberalization of Chinese government policies and a moderation of Chinese geopolitical ambitions. All of the US lead actions to smooth China's entry into the existing world order were perceived as greedy foolishness and demonstrative of the weak, vacillating shortcomings of liberal democratic decision making. They ignored the lessons of history and the evidence before their eyes that the primary goal of the philosophically bankrupt CCP and its cadre of leaders was to maintain personal power.

Xi is chasing history and personal glory. He wants to be added to the pantheon of great Chinese leaders whom reunified China and set the ground work for a Chinese dominated world order. This will probably not end well...and it was primarily China's decision to follow this path.

Wayne Clifford

1 hour ago

It was Mao's belief that China by rights should rule the world. Xi Jinping is carrying the flag forward. The Mongols, back in the day, had the same notion. (Also note Putin's claim: ruzzia's borders end nowhere. That could be a problem for the no-limits partners).

Show 2 more replies

F ALLEN Morgan

2 hours ago

I really don't care if China becomes greater.. Competition is good, but unfair is not. They lie, cheat, and steal in business and war. The South Chinese sea is a perfect example. The didn't abide by the world court decision, and they've built up small islands into miltary bases - that they said they wouldn't militarize. One is right off the coast of Phillipenes and has destroyed a key fishing area for them. And they reportedly are behind hacking into the US grid...among many other US IT infrastructure....We are already at war with China...we just don't hear the digital explosions.

Tom nho

2 hours ago

Trump was smart to build a relationship with Kim Jong Un. Kim had his uncle and half-brother killed because they were seen as too close to China. His half-brother had long been under the protection of Chinese intelligence in Macau, but he made the mistake of traveling to Malaysia, where he was assassinated by North Korean agents. China has never wanted a strong or unified Korea, as it would be seen as a threat to its regional influence and security.

However, both Democratic administrations—under Biden and Obama—have sought to build friendlier relations with Iran, a major supporter of Hamas and Hezbollah, while treating North Korea and Russia as primary adversaries. From a strategic perspective, China is more comfortable with Biden and Obama than with Trump.

(Edited)

steve coon

2 hours ago

On of the puzzles in U.S.-Sino Relations is what impact America's frequent presidential changes will affect our long-term foreign policy. Xi’s strategy seems in keeping with the West’s perception that China plans for centuries while the west plans only for a few years. But America’s foreign policy toward China shifts with each new U.S. administration. That’s worrisome.

R Pen

2 hours ago

China has all the leverage because essentially it is Trump begging for the trade deal. Trump overshot with his 145% tax threat and has shown he can't keep promises since he essentially reneged on the prior trade deal with China.

DAVID CONGLETON

2 hours ago

When are you going to start showing some on-the-ground developments in China? Instead of these lofty Sino Strategy pieces that look like they were written pre-Covid? There are a handful of Chinese Americans reporting on youtube podcasts that Xi is being sidelined, and that the two men who are replacing him are not as hardlined. Videos taken in the streets of the major cities show mass protests, collapsing dams and highway overpasses, the result of rushed construction and corrupt building code enforcement. Things are so bad in some areas that young men are moving in with their grandfathers and selling space to peers to make enough to eat. Please cover some of this, won't you, linling?

peter cooper

2 hours ago

「至關重要的是，主要支柱是進一步加強共產黨對社會各個方面的控制。」這就是失敗的根源，極權主義政權不可避免地會失敗，中國也不例外。

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泰德·C

2小時前

缺乏一致的策略規劃源自於崩潰的政治體系，而這種崩潰是由功能失調的選民所推動的，他們每四年就會改變國家的方向。

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德

大衛艾佛森

2小時前

如果習近平真的用馬克思主義的框架來看待一切，那麼這就是導致他犯錯的關鍵弱點。

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史蒂芬·施耐德

2小時前

這篇文章讚揚了習近平的精心長遠規劃，卻令人費解地掩蓋了中國式的中央計畫也會導致經濟僵化的事實。正是中央計劃經濟導致了蘇聯的覆滅。毫無疑問，中國受制於另一種中央計畫。蘇聯沒有經歷過習近平煽動的、由整座空置城市引發的災難性房地產泡沫，但後果仍然令人震驚。

習近平或許研究過蘇聯解體，但他似乎正在重演其中的一些：勞動力萎縮、私部門信心崩潰、通貨緊縮、資本外逃以及日益加深的威權主義。這些都是他所推崇的自上而下的控制的直接後果。

基辛格關於非對稱戰爭的名言——「遊擊隊不輸就能贏」——是對中國當前策略的褒揚，但這句話同樣適用於俄羅斯，或許同樣不祥。習近平正在調整貿易協定和關稅規避策略，而普丁則在發動基辛格所描述的遊擊戰——針對西方的基礎設施、選舉和公眾信任。然而，儘管習近平和普丁公開承諾建立「無限制」的夥伴關係，川普及其同路人仍然對俄羅斯的破壞行為不屑一顧。

習近平確實在規劃。但這個規劃建立在脆弱的人口結構、經濟管理不善以及黨無限期控制的幻想之上。蘇聯也曾有過這樣的計劃。

（已編輯）

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直流

大衛康格爾頓

2小時前

所以說...脆弱的人口結構、建立在出口基礎上的崩潰的經濟、自由落體的房地產價格，以及現在由他的軍事將領和海軍上將策劃的內部政變...

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約翰M

3小時前

中國在建立國內市場、實現經濟多元化和海外資源基礎方面確實做得更好。但這是透過在一定程度上允許資本主義發展，而非中央計畫經濟實現的。就像俄羅斯一樣，他們的文化單一性和奴性民眾永遠無法與西方相比。

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是

布萊恩·埃格伯特

3小時前

雖然沒有多少人這麼說，但他的時代已經過去了，就像普丁和阿亞圖拉一樣，他們已經過了應有的年齡

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直流

大衛康格爾頓

2小時前

就在我們撰寫本文時，他已被擱置。

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習近平數十年來為與美國的冷戰做準備中國領導人習近平的戰略借鑒了他對蘇聯失敗的理解經過魏玲玲2025年7月4日晚上10:00ET

習近平數十年來為與美國的冷戰做準備

中國領導人習近平的戰略借鑒了他對蘇聯失敗的理解

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