邻居的房子着火了 我们看着它燃烧 蒂莫西-斯奈德
邻居的房子着火了
我们看着它燃烧
蒂莫西-斯奈德
2024 年 1 月 4 日
The Neighbor's House is on Fire
And We Are Watching it Burn
你有一个好邻居。 他为你做了很多事。 他把你家周围的街道打扫得干干净净。 您不在家时，他帮您修剪草坪。 他帮你签收包裹，之后再给你送过来。 你的孩子去后院和他的孩子玩。 他家装有带摄像头的警报器，而你家没有，他还曾把小偷从你家赶走。 他为你做过一两件你没注意到的事。 比如有一次他阻止了一个工作人员误砍你家前院的一棵树。 还有一次，他在街上捡到了你的猫，并把它送给了你的孩子。
现在你邻居的房子着火了 火焰刚刚显露出来。 你有足够的时间做出反应。 事实上，你恰好站在附近的正确位置，手里拿着水管正在浇灌花园。 火焰近在咫尺。 你的邻居跑过来，请你把水转向火焰的方向。
你拒绝了。 你关掉水，走开了。 然后你赶紧跑到地下室，关掉阀门，以确保你的邻居帮不上忙。
你只需要动动手腕，把水管转到正确的方向。 但你没有这么做。 这不会让你付出任何代价。 你不会注意到水费单上的五分钱
如果你帮了忙，你就成了英雄 你的邻居会记得你，媒体会记得你 你的孩子会记得你，所有人都会记得你 但你选择了袖手旁观。 你邻居的房子被烧毁了
然后你的房子也烧了
这就是目前我们的乌克兰政策。我们选择让一个好邻居自生自灭。 乌克兰为我们做了我们需要做的事情，而这些事情往往是我们自己疏忽或无法做到的。 乌克兰为我们做了一些我们没有注意到的事情。
这些都不是小事。 通过抵抗俄罗斯，乌克兰向世界表明，有些人足够关心民主，并为之承担风险。 通过表明核讹诈行不通，乌克兰降低了核扩散和核战争的风险。 它维护了国际法律秩序。 它履行了北约的使命，吸收并扭转了俄罗斯的攻击，使欧洲其他地方发生战争的可能性变得很小。 通过展示进攻行动的难度，它可以阻止中国在太平洋地区采取冒险行动。
这些都是极为重要的美国利益，但其中大部分我们自己无法实现。 乌克兰可以实现这些目标，只要我们提供一点帮助，甚至是我们自己都不会注意到的帮助。
乌克兰在燃烧。 在过去几天里，俄罗斯向乌克兰平民发射了大约五百枚火箭弹和无人机，其中包括除夕夜发射的近百架无人机。 俄罗斯继续在乌克兰开展进攻行动。 俄罗斯宣传人员和俄罗斯领导人继续宣布与战争开始时相同的种族灭绝战争目标：结束乌克兰国家和乌克兰民族。 俄罗斯占领下的乌克兰公民继续遭受酷刑和驱逐。
黄铜色水龙头
乌克兰用它所拥有的武器进行了非常有效的抵抗。 它开放了黑海贸易，这是谁也没有想到的。 它阻挡了俄罗斯的推进，造成了巨大伤亡。 它击落了导弹和无人机。 (如果您想帮助侦测无人机，这是当务之急，请点击此处为我的 "安全天空 "活动捐款）。
因此，我们站在这里，很容易获得水源。 提供帮助是如此容易。 然而，我们却对需要帮助的邻居视而不见。 乌克兰需要我们的支持，而我们的一些国会代表却在阻挠。
考虑到我们在国家安全上的支出，这笔钱并不重要。 这只是国防预算美元中的一美分。
而这五分钱花得非常值得！ 毕竟，国防部的预算是为了保证我们的安全。 这五分钱给我们带来了大西洋和太平洋的安全，给我们带来了核战争风险的降低和国际社会对法律的最大尊重，给我们带来了我们有朋友为好事而冒险的感觉。 在国防部的美元中，没有任何其他镍币比它更重要。
事实上，我们甚至没有真正把这一分钱花在乌克兰身上。 我们名义上花在乌克兰的大部分国防资金实际上都留在了美国。 乌克兰需要的武器在很大程度上是你们的税款本来要用来退役 -- 销毁和扔掉的武器。 例如，我们有大约一千枚远程导弹，我们很快就要花税款把它们拆开扔进垃圾填埋场。 这些导弹如果交给乌克兰，将严重阻碍俄罗斯的进攻，并使乌克兰处于赢得战争的地位。
我们正在关水。 我们跑到地下室，陷入了某种奇怪的自我毁灭式的自我陶醉之中，我们正在将自己的房子置于危险之中。 忽视邻居是我们能做的最糟糕的事情，即使我们只关心自己。
今年，乌克兰人为我们所做的一切都可能前功尽弃。 俄罗斯可能会获胜，并被鼓励发动其他战争，而我们在这些战争中的参与可能会更加直接。 中国可能会受到鼓励，我们可能会发现自己在台湾问题上陷入一场大灾难。 国际秩序可能崩溃，我们可能面临世界各地混乱、困难和痛苦的冲突。 俄罗斯可能停止向亚洲和非洲运送粮食，导致饥饿和进一步的战争。 每个人都可能因为意识到那些冒着生命危险争取民主的人被出卖而士气低落，只因为美国人没有足够的能力去做显然是正确的事情。
其实大可不必如此。 帮助好邻居很容易。 我们只需动动手指，就能阻止这场战火。 通过立法支持乌克兰，我们就能过上更安全的一年，过上更安全的生活。
You have a good neighbor. He does a lot for you. He keeps the street clean around your house. He mows your lawn when you are away. He signs for your packages and brings them to you later. Your kids go and play with his kids in the backyard. He has an alarm on his house with a camera, which you don't, and he once ran burglars away from your house. He's done a thing or two for you that you haven't noticed. Like the time he stopped a crew from mistakenly taking down a tree in your front yard. And the time he found your cat outside, on the street, and gave it to your kid.
And now your neighbor's house has caught fire. The flames are just now visible. There's plenty of time to react. In fact, you happen to be standing nearby, at exactly the right place, watering your garden, with a hose in your hand. The flames are in easy reach. Your neighbor runs to you and asks you to just turn the water in the direction of the flame.
You refuse. You turn off the water and walk away. And then you hurry down to your basement and shut off the valve, just to make sure your neighbor can't be helped.
All you had do was flick your wrist, turn the hose in the right direction. But you didn't. It wouldn't have cost you anything. A nickel on your water bill that you wouldn't notice.
And if you had helped, you'd have been a hero. Your neighbor would remember you, as would the press, as would your kids, as would everyone. But you chose not to help. Your neighbor's house burns down.
And then yours does, too.
This is, currently, our Ukraine policy. We are choosing to let a good neighbor burn. Ukraine does things for us that we need, and often that we neglect to do ourselves, or cannot do ourselves. It does things for us that we do not notice.
These are not small things. By resisting Russia, Ukraine shows the world that there are people who care about democracy enough to take risks for it. It reduces the risk of nuclear proliferation and nuclear war by showing that nuclear blackmail does not work. It maintains the international legal order. It fulfills the NATO mission by absorbing and reversing a Russian attack, making war elsewhere in Europe very unlikely. It deters China from risky action in the Pacific by showing how difficult offensive operations are.
These are all hugely important American interests, most of which we cannot fulfill ourselves. Ukraine can fulfill them, if we help, just a little, in ways we would not even notice.
Ukraine is on fire. In the past few days, Russia has launched something like five hundred rockets and drones at Ukrainian civilians, including nearly a hundred drones on New Year's Eve. Russia continues to undertake offensive operations in Ukraine. Russian propagandists and Russian leaders continue to announce the same genocidal war aims now as at the beginning of the war: the end of the Ukrainian state and the end of the Ukrainian nation. Ukrainian citizens under Russian occupation continue to be tortured and deported.
Ukraine resists, very effectively, with the weapons it has. It has opened the Black Sea to trade, something that no one expected. It is holding back the Russian advance, inflicting huge casualties. It is shooting down missiles and drones. (If you want to help detect the drones, which is a matter of urgency, please make a contribution to my Safe Skies campaign here).
So we are standing here with easy access to water. It would be so easy to help. And yet we are turning away from our neighbor in need. Ukraine needs our support, and some of our Congressional representatives are blocking it.
The amount in question is not meaningful, given what we spend on national security. It is about a nickel on the defense budget dollar.
And that nickel is extremely well spent! The defense department budget, after all, is meant to keep us safe. That nickel on the dollar brings us security in the Atlantic and the Pacific, it brings us a reduced risk of nuclear war and a greatest international respect for law, it brings us the sense that we have friends who take risks for good things. There is no other nickel on the defense department dollar that is nearly so important as this one.
And, in fact, we don't even really spend that nickel on Ukraine. Most of the defense money we nominally spend on Ukraine actually stays in the United States. The arms Ukraine needs are in large measure weapons that your tax dollars would otherwise be spent to decommission -- to destroy and throw away. For example, we have about a thousand long-range missiles that we will soon pay tax money to take apart and drop in landfills. Those missiles, given instead to Ukraine, would seriously hinder Russian attacks, and put Ukraine in a position to win the war.
We are turning off the water. Running down to then basement, caught in some strange self-destructive fit of self-absorption, we are putting our own house at risk. Ignoring our neighbor is the worst thing we can do, even if all we care about is ourselves.
Everything that the Ukrainians are doing for us can be undone this year. Russia can win, and be encouraged to start other wars, where our participation is likely to be much more direct. China can be encouraged, and we can find ourselves in a cataclysm over Taiwan. International order can break down, and we can confront confusing, difficult, and painful conflicts all over the world. Russia can halt food deliveries to Asia and Africa, leading to starvation and further war. Everyone can be demoralized by the realization that those who risked their lives for democracy were sold out, just because Americans lacked the wherewithal to what is obviously the right thing.
It doesn't have to be that way. It's easy to help a good neighbor. This is a conflagration that we can stop with a flick of the wrist. A bit of legislation to support Ukraine, and we all have a safer year, and safer lives.
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