地球上最危险的地方如果俄罗斯与北约摊牌，"苏瓦乌基缺口 "很可能是第一个接触点。

THE MOST DANGEROUS PLACE ON EARTH

In a showdown between Russia and NATO, the 'Suwałki Gap' would likely be the first point of contact.

By Matthew Karnitschnig

in Druskininkai, Lithuania

地球上最危险的地方

如果俄罗斯与北约摊牌，"苏瓦乌基缺口 "很可能是第一个接触点。

马修-卡尼施尼报道

立陶宛德鲁斯基宁凯

Jason Lyon 为《政治新闻》撰写的插图

漫步在这座沉睡的温泉小镇上，19 世纪的华丽别墅、喷泉和湖泊点缀其间，很容易让人忘记自己正站在弗拉基米尔-普京的十字准线上。

Druskininkai德鲁斯基宁凯坐落在立陶宛的东南边境，通向一个被称为苏瓦乌基缺口的狭长战略要地。西方军事规划人员警告说，如果俄罗斯总统选择将乌克兰战争升级为与北约的动武对抗，该地区很可能会成为他的首选目标之一。

东欧官员希望引起人们对西方军事联盟在东部的弱点的关注，而这正是问题的核心所在。

Druskininkai德鲁斯基宁凯是一个约有 12000 人的小镇，它对俄罗斯和欧洲历史的动荡都不陌生、

1837 年，沙皇尼古拉一世将该镇指定为俄罗斯公务员的官方温泉疗养地，自那时起，该镇富含矿物质的水域就吸引了来自中欧和东欧各地的游客，即使普鲁士、波兰、俄罗斯、苏联等入侵军队之间不断变换对该地区的控制。

冷战期间，Druskininkai这里曾是苏联人最喜爱的度假胜地。如今，这里有世界上最大的室内雪场之一和一个精致的水上公园。在乌克兰战争爆发之前，这里对俄罗斯人的吸引力丝毫未减，俄罗斯人和白俄罗斯人在游客中所占的比例最大。

这种熟悉感或许可以解释为什么一些当地人对入侵前景持乐观态度。"最近的一个下午，在德鲁斯基宁凯长大的 22 岁青年达努卡斯说："我们并没有生活在恐惧之中。"如果真的发生了，是的，人们会感到疑惑，但现在情况并非如此。

达努卡斯要求不使用他的全名以保护他的隐私，他说他相信北约会保护立陶宛这个 280 万人口的国家。达努卡斯说，如果北约不保护立陶宛，他 "就会离开这个国家"，并补充说军队 "不是他的兴趣所在"。

最近，达努卡斯沿着一条两旁长满松树的孤寂小路，来到了距离市中心仅 10 公里的白俄罗斯边境，他认为带上行囊也许是明智之举。边防哨所是小镇附近的两个边防哨所之一，已经关闭，空无一人，既看不到士兵，也看不到边防巡逻队。

https://www.politico.eu/article/suwalki-gap-russia-war-nato-lithuania-poland-border/

Illustration by Jason Lyon for POLITICO

Strolling amid the ornate 19th-century villas, fountains and lakes that dot this sleepy spa town, it’s easy to forget that you’re standing in Vladimir Putin’s crosshairs.

Nestled on Lithuania’s southeastern border, Druskininkai opens onto a narrow notch of strategic territory known as the Suwałki Gap. Stretching about 100 kilometers along the Lithuanian-Polish frontier, between Belarus in the east and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad to the west, Western military planners warn the area would likely be one of the Russian president’s first targets were he ever to choose to escalate the war in Ukraine into a kinetic confrontation with NATO.

You wouldn’t know it by looking at it — and that, say Eastern European officials seeking to draw attention to the Western military alliance’s vulnerabilities in the east, is at the heart of the problem.

Druskininkai, a town of about 12,000, is no stranger to either Russia or to the tumult of European history,

Designated an official spa for Russian civil servants by Czar Nicholas I in 1837, the town’s mineral-rich waters have drawn visitors from around Central and Eastern Europe ever since, even as invading armies — Prussian, Polish, Russian, Soviet — shifted control of the region between them.

During the Cold War, the resort was a favorite Soviet holiday destination. Today, it’s home to one of the world’s largest indoor snow arenas and an elaborate water park. And until the war in Ukraine put it out of reach, it had lost little of its allure for Russians, who along with Belarusians, accounted for the largest percentage of visitors.

That familiarity might explain why some locals are sanguine about the prospects of an invasion. “We don’t live in that fear,” Danukas, a 22-year-old who grew up in Druskininkai, said on a recent afternoon. “If it happens, yes, people will be wondering but right now that’s not really the case.”

Danukas, who asked that his full name not be used in order to protect his privacy, said he was confident that NATO would protect Lithuania, a country of 2.8 million. If it doesn’t, he “would just go out of the country,” Danukas said, adding that the military “wasn’t his thing.”

A recent visit down a lonely road lined with pine trees to the border with Belarus, just 10 kilometers from the center of town, suggested it might be wise to pack a bag. The border post, one of two near the town, was closed and deserted, with neither soldiers nor border patrol anywhere in sight.

https://www.politico.eu/article/suwalki-gap-russia-war-nato-lithuania-poland-border/