评估公众对与台湾（非）和平统一的支持：来自中国全国性调查的证据
亚当-刘ORCID Icon和李晓军ORCID Icon
今天，在中美两国地缘政治竞争加剧的背景下，台湾海峡的军事冲突似乎越来越有可能发生。
虽然人们对战争的前景和后果进行了大量的讨论和辩论，但我们对普通中国人如何评价北京在短期内可能利用的针对台北的全套政策工具知之甚少。
根据一项独特的中国民意调查，我们发现武装统一，即 "武统"，只获得了微弱的多数（55%）的支持，不超过一系列不太激进的政策选择，从使用小规模战争，到胁迫台北进行谈判，再到简单地维持现状。
除了最极端的 "武统 "方案外，一百个人中只有一个人拒绝所有的方案。
对受访者属性的分析进一步显示，激进的政策偏好主要是由民族主义和同伴压力驱动的，
但由于对非和平统一的经济、人力和声誉成本以及美国干预的可能性的担忧而受到抑制。
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10670564.2023.2209524
Assessing Public Support for (Non-)Peaceful Unification with Taiwan: Evidence from a Nationwide Survey in China
Adam Y. LiuORCID Icon &Xiaojun LiORCID Icon
A military conflict over the Taiwan Strait seems increasingly likely today against the backdrop of intensifying geopolitical competition between China and the United States. While much has been discussed and debated about the prospects for and consequences of war, we know little about how ordinary Chinese evaluate the full set of policy tools that Beijing could potentially leverage against Taipei in the near term. Drawing from a unique public opinion survey in China, we find that armed unification, or ‘wutong’, garners only a slim majority (55%) of support, no more than for a range of less aggressive policy options, from using small-scale warfare, to coercing Taipei into negotiating, to simply maintaining the status quo. Only one out of one hundred rejected all but the most extreme option of ‘wutong’. Analyses of respondent attributes further reveal that aggressive policy preferences are primarily driven by nationalism and peer pressure, but dampened by concerns about the economic, human, and reputational costs of non-peaceful unification and the likelihood of US intervention.
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10670564.2023.2209524
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