台灣：⺠族、國家、還是或省份Taiwan Nation-State or Province

在美国中央情报局经常引用的前一版《世界概况》中，有一份 "独立国家"、"附属国 "和 "特殊主权地区 "的清单。只有台湾被归入一个单独的类别："其他"。最新的《世界概况》将台湾称为 "行政区划"，并指出中国将其视为第23个省。许多国际组织，包括联合国及其附属机构，作为一项政策不提及台湾。一些组织将台湾的数据放在中国或中华人民共和国的标题下。世界地图集》和其他一些组织只列出联合国会员国。世界银行使用 "中国台湾 "这一术语。大英百科全书》没有把台湾列为一个国家；但它有一篇关于台湾的文章，并在其他一些情况下引用了台湾。谷歌将台湾称为 "亚洲的一个国家，正式称为中华民国"。雅虎称台湾为 "一个被有限承认的亚洲国家。"因此，台湾是被视为一个主权民族国家还是中国的一个亲王并不明确。有人说这是一个严重的问题，是导致战争的那种问题。关于台湾的许多其他问题要么是独特的，要么是不确定的，或者两者都是。过去台湾被称为 "贱民国家"--一个在外交上被孤立的威权国家。但是，即使在它失去这种厌恶感之前，台湾就因其经济（快速增长与公平）和政治（快速但和平的民主化）的 "奇迹 "而被广泛誉为 "模范国家"。然而，根据其他标准，它是世界上最孤立的国家（如果它是一个国家的话）--在国际组织的成员中排名最后，在给予它正式外交承认的外国数量中排名很低。台湾是唯一重要的（在规模或人口方面）类似于一个国家的实体，但不是联合国成员。它经常被列为有能力制造核、化学和生物武器的国家。然而，如果中国进攻该岛，如果美国不再保证它的安全，它很可能只能存活几天或几周。分析家们把把台湾与中国分开的台湾海峡称为世界头号 "热点"。世界上唯一的超级大国美国和唯一的崛起大国中国，各自拥有针对对方的核武器，似乎很容易为台湾而战。据说这是它们之间唯一不可谈判的问题。1996年，它们几乎开战了。台湾宣称，作为一个民主国家，它应该决定自己的未来，并举行了有史以来第一次总统直选，以强调这一权利。中国将此举视为分裂的标志，在台湾海岸附近进行了恐吓性的导弹试验。作为反应，美国向该地区派遣了自越战以来最大的军事力量。有一段时间，一场全面的美中冲突似乎迫在眉睫。十几年后，台湾海峡的紧张局势有所缓解，尽管随着中国经济和军事力量的快速增长以及美国在这两个领域实力的相对下降，中国对台湾的主张也稳步增长，更加可信。自从2016年的选举使主张台湾从中国独立的民主进步党上台以来，闪光点这个词再次被普遍使用。然而，没有什么理由认为这将发生。台湾的公众舆论倾向于维持现状，但这避开了台湾是一个国家还是中国的一部分这一问题。一些人建议用某种联邦或联盟的方式来解决这个问题。但中国和台湾的高级官员都没有认真提出这种想法：台湾在商业上与中国的联系比欧盟大多数成员国之间的联系还要紧密。台湾的经济健康依赖于中国，台湾的大多数人都知道这一点。然而，政治联系则是另一回事。是经济还是政治决定台湾的未来？似乎没有人知道。在下面的篇幅中，作者将研究与这个 "另一个 "地方相关的背景、环境、问题等。具体来说，这意味着要研究它的地理、历史、社会、经济、政治制度及其外交和国防政策，着眼于台湾是否具有或应该具有民族国家地位的问题。本书中使用的大多数中文术语都是用台湾长期使用的Wade-Giles系统翻译成英文。然而，有些人名是按照中国开发的拼音系统拼写的，台湾在2008年部分地采用了该系统。对于人名，作者使用该人喜欢的拼法。北京 "一词是指中国的首都；"北京 "是指在使用旧的拼写法的历史时期的同一个城市。为了说明问题，有时会在括号中提供另一种单词的拼法。

在本书中，除非另有说明，否则在衡量台湾的经济以及涉及台湾的货币交易和支出时都使用美元。其他测量方法使用美国系统，但公制系统有时与美国系统一起使用。

约翰-富兰克林-铜

In a previous edition of the US Central Intelligence Agency’s often-cited WorldFactbook there was a list of “independent states,” “dependencies” and “areas ofspecial sovereignty.” Taiwan alone was put in a separate category: “other.” Amore recent World Factbook refers to Taiwan as an “administrative division”and notes that China considers it its 23rd province.Many international organizations, including the United Nations and itsaffiliate-agencies, as a policy do not mention Taiwan. Some include data onTaiwan under the heading China or the People’s Republic of China. TheWorld Atlas and a number of other organizations list only countries that aremembers of the United Nations. The World Bank uses the term “Taiwan,China.” Britannica Encyclopedia does not list Taiwan as a nation; yet it has along piece on Taiwan and cites Taiwan in a number of other contexts.Taiwan appears in lists of countries or nations of the world in otherpublications. Google refers to Taiwan as a “state in Asia officially known asthe Republic of China.” Yahoo calls Taiwan “a state in Asia with limitedrecognition.”Thus whether Taiwan is to be regarded a sovereign nation-state or a pro-vince of China is unclear. Some say this is a serious problem—of the sort thatcauses wars.Much else about Taiwan is either unique or uncertain, or both.In the past Taiwan was called a “pariah nation”—an authoritarian countrydiplomatically isolated. But even before it lost that opprobrium Taiwanbecame widely hailed as a “model country” for its economic (rapid growthwith equity) and political (quick but peaceful democratization) “miracles.”Taiwan ranks very high in almost all of the criteria used to measure glo-balization—trade, foreign investment, travel in and out, and so on. Yet it isthe world’s most isolated nation (if it is a nation) by other criteria—rankinglast in memberships in international organizations and very low in thenumber of foreign countries that grant it formal diplomatic recognition.Taiwan is the only important (in size or population) entity that resembles anation that is not a member of the United Nations.Taiwan has one of the best militaries in the world. It is often listed as acountry capable of building nuclear, chemical and biological weapons. Yet it would likely survive but a few days or weeks if China were to attack theisland and if the United States were to no longer guarantee its security.Analysts have labeled the Taiwan Strait, which separates Taiwan fromChina, the world’s number one “flashpoint.” The world’s only superpower, theUnited States, and its only rising power, China, each with nuclear weaponstargeted at the other, appear prone to go to battle over Taiwan. It is said to bethe only non-negotiable issue between them.In 1996, they almost went to war. Taiwan proclaimed that, being ademocracy, it should decide its future and held its first-ever direct presidentialelection to underscore this right. Seeing this move as a sign of secession,China conducted intimidating missile tests near Taiwan’s shores. In reaction,the United States sent the biggest military force deployed since the VietnamWar to the region. For a while a full-blown U.S.–China conflict appearedimminent.A decade-plus later tension in the Taiwan Strait diminished, even thoughChina’s claim to Taiwan has steadily grown more credible with the rapidgrowth of its economic and military power and the relative decline in Amer-ica’s strength in both areas. Since the 2016 election that brought the Demo-cratic Progressive Party, which advocates Taiwan’s independence from China,to power, the term flashpoint has again come into common usage.Some, especially in Taiwan, hope that global public opinion or an interna-tional organization such as the United Nations will help decide Taiwan’sfuture. Yet there is little reason to think that will happen. Public opinion inTaiwan favors the status quo, but that skirts the question whether Taiwan is anation or a part of China. Some have suggested a commonwealth or union ofsome sort may be used to resolve the issue. But neither top officials in Chinanor Taiwan have advanced such ideas seriously.Two other salient facts about Taiwan need to be noted: Taiwan is morelinked to China commercially than most members of the European Union areto each other. Taiwan’s economic health depends on China, and most peoplein Taiwan know this. Political links, however, are a different matter. Willeconomics or politics decide Taiwan’s future? No one seems to know for sure.In the following pages the author will examine the background, circum-stances, problems and more associated with this “other” place. Specifically,this means looking at its geography, history, society, economy, political systemand its foreign and defense policies with an eye on the issue of whether or notTaiwan has, or should have, nation-state status.Most of the Chinese terms used in this book have been rendered intoEnglish script using the Wade-Giles system long used in Taiwan. However,some names are spelled according to the Pinyin system developed in Chinathat was partially adopted by Taiwan in 2008. For personal names, the authoruses the spelling that person prefers. The term “Beijing” is used for the capitalof China; “Peking” is used to refer to that same city during the historicalperiod when the old spelling was in use. For clarification an alternative spel-ling of words is sometimes provided in parentheses.

Throughout this book the U.S. dollar is used in measuring Taiwan’s econ-omy as well as in monetary transactions and expenditures involving Taiwanunless otherwise specified. Other measurements use the U.S. system, thoughthe metric system is sometimes used along with the U.S. system.

John Franklin Copper