如果第三次世界大战爆发，谁更有可能成为胜利者？美国——永远是美国。
美国——永远是美国。
我并不是想在这里表现出沙文主义，但现实是你现在无法在常规战争中击败美国。你可以让我们军队的一小部分人打游击战十多年，我们可能会在给你造成可怕的伤亡后退出，但仅此而已。
让我告诉你为什么。
理由一：你不能攻击美国
到底有人怎么攻击美国？你必须驾驶轰炸机或发射导弹飞越大西洋或太平洋。任何导弹发射都将被视为核武器并招致可怕的反应，所以这是不可能的——仅指轰炸机。
你知道把一架轰炸机从中国或俄罗斯运到美国需要多长时间吗？空军将有半天时间准备和拦截。
考虑到美国不仅拥有最多的军用飞机，而且拥有最先进的飞机，祝你好运！
对比一下中国。美国可以在日本、台湾或韩国驻扎飞机，并且距离中国城市仅数英里。美军将很容易打击中国甚至入侵大陆，而中国将被迫征服多个岛国。
原因 2：粮仓和资源
谁是地球上最大的石油生产国？美国。如果有必要，美国生产的石油足以供应整个军事和民用经济。
此外，美国拥有大量疯狂的农田，这意味着食物对美国人来说不是问题。无论发生什么冲突，我们都可以轻松地养活我们的军队和人民。
这适用于钢、铜、金、钨、橡胶——你能想到的。与世界隔绝，美国可以提供重大的战争努力。
理由三：海军
美国海军是地球上最强大的大约 1000 英里。没有其他海军接近。欧洲、亚洲或南美洲的联合海军甚至相差甚远。
美国现有11艘“超级航母”。这些是只有美国拥有的极其庞大和先进的航母。没有其他国家甚至拥有 1 艘“超级航母”。
与此同时，中国有 2 艘航母——都是微型航母，1 艘非常古老，1 艘非常新但也非常小。
运营商统治海浪。它们是力量投射器——让您在任何地方都能获得致命的气罩精度。几架喷气式飞机可以在几秒钟内摧毁 100 艘船。
不仅仅是运营商。美国还拥有大量高度先进的潜艇、护卫舰、护卫舰和驱逐舰。这些船只不仅数量众多，而且科技含量极高。
所以美国统治着海浪。这意味着我们可以
- 封锁国家和限制贸易
- 切断敌人补给线
- 把我们的军队调到我们喜欢的地方
- 为我们的海外部队提供补给
- 确保美国大陆完全安全。
还记得我提到过美军可以从台湾、韩国和日本攻击中国吗？好吧，中国将不得不拿下日本和台湾来阻止这一切，这意味着要通过美国海军……。祝你好运。
理由四：军队
美国军队仍然是地球上最强大的军队。它不是最大的，因为中国确实拥有更大的军队。然而，亚历山大大帝经常以 4 比 1 的人数超过对手，而且从不流汗。
一群人不是军队，就像一堆砖头不是房子一样。中国的军队确实非常庞大，但其中很大一部分训练有素、装备简陋，而且中国的指挥结构低于标准。
美国还拥有更现代化的尖端设备。从步枪到坦克，地球上任何一支军队都没有动过美国的军火库。
美国有一大劣势——厌战。
美国是一个非此即彼的社会。如果与中国的战争持续很长时间并且大量尸体开始运回家，人们会质疑这场冲突的有效性。
在美国，对 WW3 的支持可能会很容易暴跌，从而阻碍我们的战斗能力。与此同时，中国似乎对此免疫。如果事情变得非常糟糕，情况可能会改变，但就目前而言，中国对人口拥有绝对的控制权。
美国需要要么取得重大胜利并迅速行动，要么封锁中国并慢慢（不流血地）让他们投降。
一个同样好的问题：当第三次世界大战来临时，我们是否还有钱购买我们的军事机器？
请记住：苏联拥有世界上最可怕的军事机器之一。在许多方面，人们可以说它是世界上最强大的军队，而一些人则争辩说，华沙条约会像虫子开始射击一样粉碎北约。事实上，北约的防御计划是守住西德一周，然后撤退到法国、比利时和荷兰。你猜怎么了？苏联没钱了，却没有部署任何针对北约的花哨装备。现在，留在俄罗斯军队中的是过去的一些废料。
除了部队数量，我们的军事机器在所有方面都比解放军强大得多。但是它很贵；阿富汗和伊拉克给我们的预算造成了长期无法修复的巨大漏洞。尽管裁员，但我军的军费仍然是解放军的很多倍。
我们的军队远比解放军强大……目前。当我们不得不在医疗保险、社会保障和军队之间做出选择时，它会保持更强大吗？我不知道。
亚历克斯，我读了你在 Quora 上写的所有内容。你有很好的答案，这些答案基于出色的研究，并且有趣且信息丰富。
我必须与这个特定的答案讨论您用来构建和证明论文强度的多个要点。
首先，您声称由于农业和石油自给自足，美国在经济上独立于世界其他地区。关于这两个关键因素，你是正确的。然而，美国依赖进口许多原材料，例如稀土矿物和其他关键原材料，这些原材料是制造国防工业和计算机部门所需的高科技产品所需的，其中包括维持和推进美国制造业的其他关键部门。
我为什么要提到这个？中国正在建立一个以陆地而非海洋为基础的全球供应链，以确保其石油和农产品等物品的供应不会在战时被美国在关键的咽喉要点切断。如果中国及其在俄罗斯和伊朗的主要盟友在这一努力中取得成功，我们将见证史诗般的范式转变，因为陆上贸易和财富积累以及全球力量将从海洋转移回亚洲陆上大国基列强国，英语国家。如您所知，从历史上看，在所有有记载的历史（例如丝绸之路）中，贸易都是由亚洲陆地大国进行的，直到大航海时代和欧洲殖民大国崛起。中国努力打造以中国为中心的新丝绸之路，将减少美国的“
最近从阿富汗撤军代表了美国外交政策在其历史上最大的失败，因为除了与日本的关系之外，美国不再有能力影响亚洲大陆的地缘政治发展，而亚洲大陆代表了美国的大部分人性。美国通过任何决策过程，只是将未来亚洲腹地权力结构的权力让给了中国及其盟友。这对美国来说是最糟糕的结果，似乎没有任何选择可以扭转这一范式转变事件。
控制贸易以及商品和服务的流动是影响财富和权力的转移和控制的最佳方法，以有利于他人的方式进行。美国政策的这种失败将在适当的时候使美国从经济和军事上的超级大国沦为地区大国，尽管是一个强大的地区行为体。由于中国和亚洲中心地带拥有 75% 的人口和关键原材料，美国及其精英将不再拥有自 1945 年以来享有的权力工具。
我注意到，这一范式转变事件的影响并未在 Quora 或美国媒体上引起任何讨论。
此外，我不同意你对美军能力的评估。你的假设在 20 年前是正确的，但在现在却不正确。这是大多数美国人所遭受的痛苦。从20世纪70年代开始，美国从制造业经济转向消费经济，将制造业和制造业增长所需的知识大量转移到亚洲，尤其是中国。目前，美国还不是制造大国，而且随着时间的推移，制造经济所需的技能型知识在美国不断流失，而在中国却在不断增长。
美国不能再生产高质量的产品，如计算机芯片、汽车零部件、手机等消费电子产品、民用和军用船只，以及使美国强大、富有并独立于其他国家的各种产品世界。
制造业经济是成为军事超级大国的先决条件。目前，中国每年生产5艘海军军舰，而美国只有1艘军舰。考虑到美国海军军舰的年龄和状况不佳，美国成为二流海军强国只是时间问题。
美国空军的情况与美国海军没有什么不同。美国空军的核心部件 F-15 和 F-16 已超过其设计寿命，处于年久失修状态，无法与中国和/或俄罗斯等同行竞争。特别是这些战机可能比你还老，而且都是 1980 年代生产的，并使用 70 年代的技术设计的。即使是大肆宣传的 F-22 现在也有 20 年的历史，并且采用 1980 年代的技术设计。更不用说其中只有 187 架在服役。
美国陆军仍在使用 1970 年代设计和 80 年代生产的装备，这些装备是陆军用于作战的美国战术和战略平台。
中国的丝绸之路战略，只是将美国的制造能力转移到中国，以及所有三个关键服务中老化的军事装备，表明美国不再是超级大国，除了纸面上和美国人的眼中30 年前的世界。
你是绝对正确的，目前美国没有受到敌国或敌对国家集团直接入侵的威胁。然而，中国的优势完全取决于美国的决定，而美国在历史和美国看来都是经济和军事上的全球超级大国。在接下来的十年或更短时间内，中国将在一场以美军失败告终的冲突中考验美国，这将导致人们承认美国几十年前就不再是超级大国，美国的实力和影响力将丧失这是自找的，是史诗般的范式转变的催化剂，从海上强国转向亚洲历史上的陆上强国中国。
问题变成了美国如何在中国主导全球公域的新现实中保持独立，美国不再有能力派遣超级大国的军事代表。
由于我的冗长回答，我忽略了美元地位的下降及其在美国统治世界中的关键作用以及美元不再在贸易交易中占主导地位或作为储备货币的影响，以及美元在世界经济中的核心作用。与世界其他地区相比，美国保持富裕的能力。
对于对您的回答的冗长批评，我深表歉意，但这件事对我的兴趣和研究至关重要。
我绝对不想这么说，但你是对的。
目前，我正在阅读斯蒂芬·安布罗斯 (Stephen Ambrose) 的《公民士兵》。在其中，他反复指出普通士兵在解决他们所面临的特定战场环境所带来的装备问题时所表现出的与生俱来的机械才能和独创性。
我父亲是一个农家男孩，也是公认的机械天才。他可以观察一件设备的功能，亲手操作它，弄清楚如何让它更有效地工作。我，更不用说了。我的儿子，几乎没有。
作为一个国家，我们失去了一项关键能力；我倾向于把责任归咎于我们的三巨头。大约在 1980 年的某个时候，他们开始齐心协力消除树荫机制。他们取得了巨大的成功，以至于不允许配备套筒扳手的普通人或女孩更换自己的火花塞。
现在，引擎盖下的东西完全是个谜……尽管大多数都由我们祖父长大的相同基本 ICE 提供动力。
我为机械能力、洋基队的独创性和制造实力的逝去而哀悼。
If World War III kicked off, who is in a better position now to come out as the victor?
The US- always the US.
I am not trying to be jingoistic here but the reality is that you just cannot beat the US in a conventional war right now. You can engage a small portion of our army in a guerilla war for over a decade and we may quit after inflicting horrid casualties on you, but that’s about it.
Let me show you why.
Reason 1: You cannot attack the US
How on earth does anyone attack the US? You’d have to fly bombers or launch missiles across the Atlantic or Pacific ocean. Any missile launches will be seen as nukes and invite a terrible response so that’s out of the question- meaning bombers only.
Do you know how long it takes to get a bomber from China or Russia to the US? The Airforce would have half a day to prepare and intercept.
Factor in that the US not only has the most military planes, but the most advanced as well, and good luck!
Look at China in comparison. The US could station planes on Japan, Taiwan, or South Korea and be mere miles from Chinese cities. US forces will easily be able to strike China and even invade the mainland while China will be forced to conquer multiple island nations.
Reason 2: Breadbaskets and resources
Who is the largest producer of oil on earth? The US. The US produces more than enough oil to supply the entire military AND civilian economy if necessary.
Additionally, the US is home to frankly insane amounts of farmland and this means food is not an issue for Americans. We can feed our troops and people with ease no matter the conflict.
This goes for steel, copper, gold, tungsten, rubber- you name it. Cut off from the world the US can supply a significant war effort.
Reason 3: The Navy
The US Navy is the strongest on earth by about 1000 miles. No other Navy comes close. The combined Navys of Europe, Asia, or South America doesn’t even come close.
The US current sports 11 “super-carriers”. These are extremely large and advanced carriers that only the US has. No other nation even has 1 “supercarrier”.
China meanwhile has 2 carriers- both miniature, 1 very old, and 1 very new but also very small.
Carriers rule the waves. They are force projectors- allowing you to take the deadly precision of aircover anywhere. A few Jets can lay waste to 100 ships in mere seconds.
It’s not just carriers though. The US also has a large number of highly advanced submarines, frigates, corvettes, and destroyers. Not only are these ships numerable, but they are also extremely high-tech.
So the US rules the waves. This means we can
blockade nations and restrict trade
cut off enemy supply lines
move our armies where we please
supply our forces overseas
keep the mainland US totally safe.
Remember how I mentioned that US forces can attack China from Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan? Well China would have to take Japan and Taiwan to stop this and that means going through the US Navy…. good luck.
Reason 4: The army
The US military is still the strongest on earth. It’s isn’t the largest as China does have a larger army. Yet Alexander the Great was often outnumbered 4 to 1 and never broke a sweat.
A group of men is no more an army than a stack of bricks is a house. China’s military is very large indeed but large portions of it are poorly trained, poorly equipped, and the Chinese command structure is sub-par.
The US also sports more modern cutting-edge equipment. From rifles to tanks the US arsenal is untouched by any army on planet earth.
The US has 1 big disadvantage- war-weariness.
American is an all-or-nothing society. If a war with China grows long and lots of bodies start to come home people will question the validity of the conflict.
Support for WW3 could plummet rather easily in the US, hindering our ability to fight. China meanwhile seems to be immune from this. If things get really bad that may change but for now, China has absolute total control over the population.
The US would need to either get big victories and do so quickly, or blockade China and slowly (and bloodlessly) strange them into surrender.
You cannot beat the USA in a conventional war - I would agree with you and so would the people who wish to see the USA bought low. Which is why they won’t try to beat it conventionally.
Terry Taliban wasn’t the asymmetric / guerrilla threat to the USA, that was an international gendarme job. The non conventional threat will be where we are weakest - which is faith in our institutions.
It’s entirely possible we won’t recognise WWIII when it arrives. We may already be half way through it.
A just as good question: Will we even have the money for our military machine when WWIII comes around?
Remember: The USSR had one of the most fearsome military machines in the world. In many ways, one could argue it was the strongest military in the world, and some argue that the Warsaw Pact would’ve squashed NATO like a bug had shooting begun. In fact, NATO’s defense plan was to hold West Germany for a week and then retreat to France, Belgium, and the Netherlands. Guess what? The USSR ran out of money, without deploying any of its fancy equipment against NATO. Now, what’s left in the Russian military are some scraps from the old days.
Our military machine is far mightier than the PLA in everything but troop count. But it’s expensive; Afghanistan and Iraq have put massive holes in our budget that won’t be fixed in a long time. Despite downsizing, our military still costs many times that of the PLA.
Our military is far stronger than the PLA…for now. When we have to pick between Medicare, Social Security, and the Military to fund, will it remain stronger? I don’t know.
It's not a significant portion. We owe the same amount to China as we do to Japan ($1 trillion) most debt of the federal government is to U.S citizens
If there’s a real war, not wars like Afghanistan that nobody actually cares, money is irrelevant.
Check WW2, America gave government the authority to summon whatever resources, money wasn’t there but war bonds were paid.
The issue isn’t about going bankrupt during a war (although that is entirely possible), it’s going bankrupt without a war going on.
Probably already are in it. WWIII is not just nukes flying to cities.
Personally, I think it's more like Cold War 2 than WW3 right now though that could change anytime.
Alex, I read everything that you write on Quora. You have have great answers that are grounded in excellent research and are entertaining and informative.
I have to discuss with this particular answer on multiple points that you draw upon to build and demonstrate the strength of your thesis.
First, you claim that America is economically independent from the rest of the World due to self-sufficiency in agriculture and oil. You are correct in this regarding these two critical factors. However, the US is dependent upon imports of a number of raw materials, like rare earth minerals, as an example, and other critical raw materials, required for the manufacture of high-technology products required by the defence industry and the computer sectors, amongst other critical sectors to maintain and advance America's manufacturing industry.
Why do I mention this? China is building a global supply chain that is land-based, rather ocean-based, to secure its supply of items like oil and agricultural commodities from being cut off at critical choke points by the US in time of war. Should China and its key allies in Russia and Iran be successful with this endeavor, we will witness a paradigm shift of epic portions, as land-based trade and wealth accumulation and global power will shift back to the Asian land-based powers from the ocean-based powers, the English speaking countries. Historically, as you understand, trade was conducted by Asian land powers for all of recorded history--the Silk Road--as an example, until the Age of Discovery and the rise of the European Colonial powers. China's endeavors at creating a new Silk Road, centered on China, will reduce America's influence and domination on the global economy and will reduce America's wealth and independence from rest of the world.
The recent pull-out from Afghanistan represents the greatest failure of American foreign policy in its history, as the US, other than its relationship with Japan, no longer has the ability to influence geopolitical developments in the Asian land mass, which represents the majority of humanity. The US, through whatever decision making process, just ceded power to China and its allies over the future over the power structure of the Asian heartland. This is the worst possible outcome for the US and there doesn't appear to be any options to reverse this paradigm shifting event.
The control of trade and the movement of goods and services is the best method of influencing the transfer and control of weath and power in terms that favor one over everyone else. This failure of American policy will, in due time, reduce the US from a superpower, both economic and militarily, to a regional power, albeit, a powerful regional actor. Since China and Asian heartland is home to 75% of humanity and to key raw materials, the US and its elites will no longer have the tools of power that it has enjoyed since 1945.
I have noticed that the repercussions of this paradigm shifting event has not generated any discussion on Quora or in the US media.
Furthermore, I disagree with your assessment about the capabilities of the US military. Your assumptions were correct 20 years ago, but not in present time. This is something that the majority of America suffers from. From the 1970s, the US has given up on a manufacturing economy to a consumption economy by the wholesale transfer of its manufacturing industries and the knowledge needed for growth in manufacturing to Asia, and, China in particular. Presently, the US is not a manufacturing power, and with each passing year, the skill-based knowledge needed for a manufacturing economy, keeps eroding in the US and continues to grow in China.
America can no longer produce high-quality products like computer chips, automotive components, consumer electronics like cell-phones, maritime vessels, both civilian and military, and a wide range of products that made America powerful, wealthy and independent of the rest of the World.
A manufacturing economy is a prerequisite to being a military superpower. Currently, China produces 5 naval warships to America's 1 warship yearly. Considering the age and poor condition of the warships of the US navy, it is only a matter of time before the US becomes a second rate naval power.
The state of affairs with the US Airforce is no different than that of the US Navy. The core components of the US Airforce, the F-15s and F-16s are past their designed life spans and are in the state of disrepair and are not capable of operating against a peer competitor like China and/or Russia. These warplanes in particular are probably older than you and all were produced in the 1980s and designed using 1970s technology. Even the much-hyped F-22 is now 20 years old and designed with 1980s technology. Not to mention that there only 187 of these in service.
The US Army is still using equipment designed in the 1970s and produced in the 1980s, and are the platforms that US tactics and strategies that the Army uses to fight wars with.
China's Silk Road strategy, only with the transfer of America's manufacturing capabilities to China, along with the aging military equipment in all three critical services, indicates that the US is no longer a superpower, other than on paper and in the eyes of America's who view the world as it was 30 years ago.
You are absolutely correct that currently the US is not in danger from the threat of direct invasion by an enemy state or group of hostile states. However, China is in the ascendancy, purely due to American decisions, while the US is a global superpower, both economically and militarily, in the eyes of history and in the US. In the next decade, or less, China will test America in a conflict that will end in the defeat of the US military, that will result in the recognition that the US stopped being a superpower decades ago, and that loss of US power and influence was self-inflicted and was the catalyst for a epic paradigm shift away from the maritime powers to the historical land power of Asia, China.
The question becomes how America keep its independence in the new reality of a Chinese dominated global commons, where the US no longer has the capacity to field a military representative of a superpower.
Due to my lengthy answer, I have overlooked the declining status of the US dollar and it's critical role in America's domination of the World and the implications of the Dollar no longer being dominant in trade transactions or as a reserve currency, and its central role in America's ability to remain wealthy compared to the rest of the World.
I apologize for the lengthy critique of your answer, but this matter is central to my interests and studies.
I absolutely hate to say it, but you are correct.
Currently, I am reading ‘Citizen Soldiers’ by Stephen Ambrose. In it, he repeatedly points to the innate mechanical aptitude and ingenuity displayed by ordinary grunts in resolving equipment problems posed by the particular battlefield environment they are facing.
My Dad was a farm boy and a certifiable mechanical genius; he could watch a piece of equipment function, lay his hands on it, figure out how to make it work more efficiently. Me, less so. My son, not nearly as much.
We as a Nation have lost a critical capability; I tend to lay the blame at the feet of our Big Three. Somewhere around 1980 they embarked upon a concerted effort to eliminate the shade-tree mechanic. They have been hugely successful, to the point of literally not allowing a regular guy or gal equipped with a socket wrench to change their own spark plugs.
Now, that which lies underneath the hood is a complete mystery…even though most are powered by the same basic ICE that our grandfathers grew up with.
I mourn the passing of mechanical aptitude, Yankee ingenuity, and manufacturing prowess.
OK! Always remembering that beauty is NOT skin deep and is in the eye of the beholder, I am posting this because it has a bearing on both literature and society and for general interest.
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