俄罗斯历史上的十大拐点

俄罗斯历史上的十大拐点

1.从后来被称为希腊东正教的基督教被采纳。这发生在10世纪末。从那时起，这就确定了俄罗斯区别于欧洲其他国家的核心。

2.15和16世纪，鲁里克家族在北俄罗斯消灭了中世纪的贵族民主。

3.17世纪末卢里克王朝灭亡后，在动乱时期未能采用《大宪章》式的贵族统治。

4.彼得大帝放弃了将俄罗斯建成以亚速为首都的地中海帝国的计划。

5.1812年，法国对俄罗斯的征服流产。拿破仑时期的法律延伸到俄罗斯，意味着农奴制的废除和俄罗斯工业的崛起，大约提前了50年。

6.罗曼诺夫家族在19世纪末从德国向法国的战略转移。如果俄国与基泽尔结成战略联盟，这两个帝国可能会瓜分中欧和东欧。世界大战本来是可以避免的。美丽时代和欧洲的全球主导地位本可以在20世纪余下的时间里得以延续。

7.1917年初春，尼古拉二世退位后的君主继承权处理不当。如果处理得当，退位本可以防止布尔什维克革命的发生。在远离革命之后，帝俄同样有可能成为欧洲法西斯主义的高大堡垒，或者成为社会自由主义的闪亮之星。

8.斯大林的死亡和他的继任者没有能力继承共产主义帝国建设的火炬。他们也没能抛弃马克思主义，为国家主义的一党制市场经济打一个翻身仗，这比邓小平在中国倒退共产主义早了五十年。

9.叶利钦总统在90年代初扼杀了新生的自由民主。他血腥地解散国家立法机构，在车臣进行殖民战争，以及操纵选举，为我们现在在现代俄罗斯看到的国家君主制资本主义奠定了基础。

10.2022年，普京总统对乌克兰的战争。它结束了二战后欧洲的安全安排，标志着俄罗斯长期转变为中国超级大国的开采附属物。

下图是亚速市附近的海岸，彼得大帝最初计划在这里为其新生的帝国建立一个首都。

在这里，我们经历了一个非常重要的岔口。如果彼得的计划成功了，下面的事情就会顺理成章地发生。

我们将看到的不是与瑞典人的战争，而是对奥斯曼帝国的一系列战争。这不仅可能导致攻占君士坦丁堡，还可能提前征服黑海周围的南部草原。想象一下，俄罗斯不仅在欧洲而且在整个地中海地区成为人口最多的国家。

巴尔干半岛现在已经会说俄语了。

经济活动向南的巨大转移将在20世纪之前早就消除乌克兰和大俄罗斯之间的区别，乌克兰人将在19世纪初被完全吸收到大俄罗斯。在17世纪末和18世纪初，乌克兰的神职人员和贵族是乌克兰和俄罗斯文化融合的最热心的推动者。

在平行宇宙中，瑞典在北方战争中保持不败，而神圣罗马帝国会在巴尔干地区忙于击退俄罗斯几十年，瑞典人和奥地利人一起会阻止统一的德国的崛起。当然，在波兰人和法国人的大力帮助下。

图片（c）Nikolay Osipenko / Pexels

The Top Ten Inflection Points in the History of Russia

Adoption of Christianity from what later became known as Greek Orthodoxy. This happened in the late 10th century. Ever since, this has defined the core of Russia’s distinction from the rest of Europe.

The annihilation of the medieval aristocratic democracy in North Russia by the House of Rurik in the 15th and 16th centuries.

The failure to adopt a Magna Carta-style aristocratic rule during the Time of Troubles after the Rurikid dynasty died out in the late 17th century.

The discarded plan of Peter the Great to establish Russia as a Mediterranean empire with Azov as its capital city.

The abortive French conquest of Russia in 1812. The Napoleonic laws extended to Russia would have meant the abolishment of serfdom and the industrial rise of Russia some five decades earlier.

The strategic shift of the House of Romanovs away from Germany toward France in the late 19th century. If Russia entered a strategic alliance with Keizer, the two empires might have partitioned Central and East Europe. The world wars could have been avoided. The Belle Epoque and the global dominance of Europe could have been perpetuated for the rest of the 20th century.

The mismanaged monarchical succession after the abdication of Nicholas II in the early spring of 1917. Handled correctly, the abdication could have prevented the Bolshevik revolution. After steering away from the revolution, Imperial Russia had an equal potential for becoming the high fortress of European Fascism, or a shining star of social liberalism.

Stalin’s death and the inability of his successors to carry the torch of Communist empire building. They also failed to ditch Marxism and take a turnaround for a statist one-party market-based economy, five decades before Deng’s rollback of Communism in China.

President Yeltsin’s stifling of nascent liberal democracy in the early 1990s. His bloody dissolution of the country’s legislative body, the colonial war in Chechnya, and rigged elections laid the foundation of the state-oligarchical Capitalism we now see in modern Russia.

President Putin’s war on Ukraine in 2022. It put an end to the post-WWII security arrangement in Europe and marked a long-term transformation of Russia into an extractive appendage to the Chinese superpower.

Below, the sea coast near the city of Azov, the place where Peter the Great initially planned to found a capital city of his nascent empire.

Here, we went through a very significant fork. If Peter had succeeded with the plan, the following could logically have happened:

Instead of the wars with the Swedes, we would see a series of wars against the Ottoman empire. This could result not only in the capture of Constantinople but also an earlier conquest of the southern prairies around the Black Sea. Imagine Russia becoming the most populous country not only in Europe but also in the entire Mediterranean.

The Balkans would have spoken Russian by now.

The gigantic shift of economic activity southwards would erase the distinction between Ukraine and Great Russia long before the 20th century Ukrainians would have been fully absorbed into Greater Russia by the start of the 19th century. In the late 17th and early 18th century, the Ukrainian clergy and aristocracy were the most ardent drivers of the amalgamation of Ukrainian and Russian cultures.

In the parallel universe where Sweden stayed undefeated in the Northern war, and the Holy Roman Empire would have been busy fighting back Russia in the Balkans for decades, the Swedes and Austrians together would have prevented the rise of united Germany. Certainly, with much help from the Poles and the French.

Picture (c) Nikolay Osipenko / Pexels