如果納粹德國沒有發動第二次世界大戰並遵守慕尼黑協定，納粹國家還能存在多久？
我推薦 Adam Tooze 的“The Wages of Destruction”，以詳細研究這個主題。
到 1939 年底，納粹德國基本上不得不入侵某人或破產。
納粹經濟本質上是一個龐氏騙局。它建立在三個支柱上：
- 沒收一些人的東西，然後交給其他人。1939 年，他們沒有猶太人可以偷東西。
- 讓人們做“自願”工作（如果你因為不做而被蓋世太保舉報，這就不是自願的了）。任何開過公司的人都可以告訴你，讓它盈利的最好方法就是不領薪水。在1939 年，人們在一周內沒有更多的時間來“volumteer”。
- 偽造報告。納粹官員有一種傾向，例如命令工廠在沒有獲得更多資源的情況下將產量翻倍。工廠的老闆將因失敗而被送往集中營。唯一的生存方式是提交虛假報告，聲稱您已設法將產量翻倍。到 1939 年，現實趕上了他們，越來越明顯的是，報告為滿的商店實際上是空的。
直到 1945 年 5 月，他們肯定不會離開。
More than a few. Really dedicated Nazis would usually enlist for the Waffen SS, the Nazi party paramilitaries. The Wehermacht, Kriegsmarine, and Luftwaffe had soldiers taken from men from any walk of life: as long as you were male, healthy and in the right age range you would be enlisted. (That was true also of all other countries at war, except the Soviet Union that sometimes also enlisted women.) This included a good batch of antinazis.
Here are a few examples
Alfred Liskow was a German Wehermacht soldier, but also a Communist and a former member of the Roter Frontkämpferbund. Enrolled in the army, on the eve of the launch of Operation Barbarossa he deserted, swam across the Bug river and tried to warn the Red Army of the impeding invasion. Thoughout the war Liskow worked for the Soviet propaganda. It is not known what happened to him after the war. He said (although this quotation may be from a speech written for him by the Soviet propaandists) “I am from a family of workers, from Kolberg. My parents and I hate Hitler and his regime. For us, the USSR is a friendly country, and we don't want to fight with the Soviet people. There are many such families in Germany. They don't want a war with you.”
Rudolf Jacobs was also from an antinazist family. Enrolled in the Kriegsmarine thanks to his former experience in the merchant navy, he was stationed in Italy. There he made sure that the confiscated black market food food was distributed to the Italian population. He got in touch with the Italian Partisans and for several months spied for them. In September 1944 he and his attendant deserted to join the “Ugo Muccini” Garibaldi Brigade. He remained with the Partisans for two months heading a detachment. Along with his attendant he would use their knowledge of German to infiltrate the Nazis and attack them by surprise. He died in action in early November. The city of Sarzana dedicated a monument to Jacobs (above, on the left). Several thousand antinazi Germans deserted and joined the Partisan units in Italy, Yugoslavia, and other European countries. In Italy they even organized a Partisan unit of their own, the Freies Deutchland Bataillon, which operated in Friuli and finished the war in Austria in support of the Soviets. It included Germans, Austrians, Czechs, and German-speaking Italians.
Admiral Wilhelm Franz Canaris was a former Nazi supporter, but by the time Hitler attacked Poland he distanced himself from Nazism and started working as a spy for the Allies. As head of the Abwher, the Nazi military intelligence, he played a very intricate game of double and triple crosses. Essentially, while he ran the Abwher he tried to appear as effective as possible, but he created a secret office inside the Abwehr that fabricated false data to be fed to the Nazis and communicated real data to the Allied intelligence. In 1944 the Abwher was abolished, and Canaris was arrested and transferred to the Flossenburgh camp where he died a few days before liberation.
I don’t really know how the USA can help China “survive”.
China has a lot of internal problems:
- House Prices - How can the USA help?
- Aging population - How can the USA help?
- Bystander attitude - How can the USA help?
- Too much domestic competition and stress - How can the USA help?
- Corruption - How can the USA help?
- Pollution - How can the USA help?
- Food safety - How can the USA help?
- Growing inequality - How can the USA help?
Chinese people don’t want to survive and have all the high paying jobs sent to the USA while Chinese people are forced to do low paying jobs. That isn’t what Chinese people want.
They want to thrive just like everyone else.
I 100% believe that if China surrenders strategically and gave up trying to improve itself and left that to the USA then it would “help China to survive” as long as it didn’t cost the USA too much. The moment it did then the USA will just stab China in the back and renege its deal. Any US deal is only worth about 3 year because then the government will change and the new government will just ignore the old deal.
So “give” up for a deal that is only valid for 3 year and then get stabbed in the back.
I think China and the USA should work together more but this isn’t working together…
That being said he didn’t exactly say this. He said that China wouldn’t agree to a surrender. Jump to 8:38
He has also said that everything is going to end so the USA won’t be able to help even if they could:
See 1:00.
Anyway the video is is a bit crazy. The main idea is what happens if the USA sanctions China and tries to destroy it … then they could save it. They made a slip framing this before correcting themselves and saying that it would only happen if China invaded Taiwan first (to make the USA to “good guys”).
Not going to comment on the rest of the video. Peter Zaihan is a talking head that sells dystopian pornography. People that enjoy that world view love him and he is one of the only people that could help if people would only listen to him.
Some of the issues that he talks about are real. Lots of the information he talks about is made up since there is no way he would have access to it which is perfect for him since no one can prove him wrong.
As for the USA and China the countries have a love, hate relationship.
The USA has done a lot of good things “for” China and has worked with China a number of times which it was a stragic interest. On the other hand at various times in the past it has done everything in its power to destroy the Chinese government and through its actions directly caused suffering for the Chinese people. Certain groups will only look at the positives and others will only look at the negatives.
So … it’s complicated.
Updated: with video and more information
Not vassal state, this offer is off the table now. Today the US can only accept full surrender like Germany 1946.
I think he is more crazy. Much more. I literally laughed when I was watching him.
By late 1939, Nazi Germany basically had to invade someone or go bankrupt.
Nazi economy was essentially a Ponzi scheme. It was built on three pillars:
- Confiscate stuff from some people and hand it out to the others. In 1939, they ran out of Jews to steal stuff from.
- Make people do “voluntary" work (it's not all that voluntary if you get reported to Gestapo for not doing it). Anyone who has started a business can tell you that the best way to make it profitable is not to draw a salary. In 1939, people had no more hours in the week to “volumteer".
- Falsify reports. Nazi officials had a tendency to e.g. order a factory to double output without getting more resources. The factory's boss would be sent to a concentration camp for failure. The only way to survive was to submit false reports that you had managed to double output. By 1939, reality was catching up with them and it was becoming noticeable that stores reported as full were actually empty.
They would definitely not have lasyed until May 1945.
I recommend ‘The Wages of Destruction’ by Adam Tooze, for a detailed study on this subject.
Thank you for mentioning this book. Few authors have done a better job of puncturing the modern myths surrounding Nazi Germany and what people think it was like. “Well, Hitler was an evil guy, but he did a great job getting Germany out of the Great Depression and back on its feet!” No, he absolutely did not, and Adam Tooze rips that argument (and many others) to shreds.
There was also the MEFO bills
, a textbook ponzi scheme.Footnotes
It was not really a Ponzi scheme, rather Keynesian politics based on fraud.
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