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 孤立与接触

从肯尼迪到尼克松的总统对华决策

威廉-沃特曼-纽曼

总统的个人风格深刻地影响着政府内外的中国政策

内容简介

新闻、评论、访谈

简介

总统和他们的顾问一直在寻求改善其外交政策决策过程的管理。本书分析了从肯尼迪到尼克松的政府的成功和失败，因为他们试图在总统的个人风格和需要一个强大的机构间结构来系统地评估政策选择之间取得平衡。叙述的重点是在美国考虑从孤立中国的政策转向接触政策的关键时期，美国在中国和台湾问题上的决策，最终以尼克松1972年历史性的中国之行达到高潮。威廉-沃尔特曼-纽曼创建了一个演变-平衡模型，通过以肯尼迪、约翰逊、尼克松和福特的中国政策为重点的案例研究进行测试，显示了总统和他的顾问之间的关系如何根据总统管理风格的弱点或病态而变化。作者的研究是基于艾森豪威尔、肯尼迪、约翰逊、尼克松和福特总统图书馆的解密档案材料。

威廉-沃特曼-纽曼是弗吉尼亚联邦大学的政治学副教授。

赞誉/奖项

"这部作品是一项重要的学术贡献。纽曼仔细地重建了肯尼迪、约翰逊和尼克松三任总统在中国政策上的决策案例，并对档案资料进行了细致的关注。然而，还有更多的内容：他探讨了这些总统中每一位的决策结构和过程的演变，以及总统的行为者本身是如何影响政策结果的。他对理解总统选择的动态、'进化平衡'模式的总体分析是耐人寻味的，值得关注"。

-约翰-P-伯克，佛蒙特大学约翰-G-麦卡洛政治学荣誉教授

"在《孤立与参与》中，威廉-纽曼为我们提供了关于总统决策过程中不断调整的宝贵见解，这些变化是由制度性的政治力量和每位总统的特异性方面的互动所驱动的。

乔治-C-爱德华兹三世，德克萨斯A&M大学的大学特聘教授和约旦荣誉主席，以及牛津大学的特聘研究员

"纽曼教授将读者带入白宫，对美国与当今世界政治中的一个关键人物的关系进行了亲密的描述。这是一本引人入胜、内容丰富的书"。

-理查德-W-沃特曼，肯塔基大学

".通过开发和应用一个新的理论模型--演变-平衡模型--来分析肯尼迪、约翰逊和尼克松政府，扩展了对外交政策决策的现有理论认识。"

贾斯汀-沃恩，《白宫中的沙皇》的作者。作为总统管理工具的政策沙皇的崛起

Isolation and Engagement

Presidential Decision Making on China from Kennedy to Nixon

William Waltman Newmann

Personal presidential style profoundly affects China policy, both in and outside the administration

• Description
• News, Reviews, Interviews

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Description

Presidents and their advisors consistently seek to improve the management of their foreign policy decision processes. This book analyzes the successes and failures of administrations from Kennedy to Nixon as they sought to strike a balance between the personal style of the president and the need for a strong interagency structure that could systematically evaluate policy options. The narrative focuses on US decision making on China and Taiwan during the crucial era when the United States was considering moving from a policy of isolating China to a policy of engagement, culminating in Nixon’s historic 1972 trip to China. William Waltman Newmann has created an evolution-balance model, tested with case studies focusing on China policy by Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, and Ford, showing how the relationships between a president and his advisors change based on the weaknesses or pathologies of the president’s management style. The author’s research is based on declassified archival material from the Eisenhower, Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, and Ford presidential libraries.

William Waltman Newmann is Associate Professor of Political Science at Virginia Commonwealth University.

Praise / Awards

• “This work is an important scholarly contribution. Newmann carefully reconstructs, with meticulous attention to archival sources, case studies of decision making on China policy across the Kennedy, Johnson, and Nixon presidencies. Yet there is more: he explores how the evolving decision-making structures and processes of each of these presidents, and the presidential actors themselves, affected policy outcomes. His overall analysis of a dynamic, ‘evolutionary-balanced’ model for understanding presidential choice is intriguing and worthy of attention.”
  —John P. Burke, John G. McCullough Professor of Political Science Emeritus, University of Vermont
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• “In Isolation and Engagement, William Newmann provides us with invaluable insight into the continual adaptation in the processes of presidential decision making, changes that are driven by the interaction of institutional political forces and idiosyncratic aspects of each president.”
  —George C. Edwards III, University Distinguished Professor and Jordan Chair Emeritus, Texas A&M University, and Distinguished Fellow, University of Oxford

• “Professor Newmann brings the reader inside the White House for an intimate portrait of America’s relationship with a key figure in world politics today. A fascinating and informative book.”

  —Richard W. Waterman, University of Kentucky

• “. . . expands existing theoretical understanding of foreign policy decision making by developing and applying a new theoretical model—the evolution-balance model—to analyze the Kennedy, Johnson, and Nixon Administrations.”

  —Justin Vaughn, Author of Czars in the White House: The Rise of Policy Czars as Presidential Management Tools