可避免的战争：美国与习近平的中国之间发生灾难性冲突的危险性
陆克文
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来自西方联盟核心的资深外交官和总理，以及知识渊博的中国观察家，为美国和中国提供了避免超级大国冲突的前进道路，以及如果冲突爆发可能出现的令人不寒而栗的愿景。
可避免的战争》面对的是一种日益增长的感觉，即美中关系开始失去控制。
民族主义者在两国首都的政治中都获得了地位。
所谓的 "现实主义者 "控制着他们各自的国家安全政策议程。
"自由国际主义者"，更不用说 "多边主义者"，已经被注销了。
而美国现在已经正式得出结论，中国和美国之间四十年的 "战略接触 "现在已经结束，并以失败告终，我们现在已经进入了一个 "战略竞争 "的新时代。
在这条新的道路上没有任何规则。
一场广泛的经济、网络和高科技战争，也许还有更广泛的经济脱钩，很可能成为一个持续的现实。
正如两者在外交政策、国家安全政策和国际经济政策的认识和实践中不断扩大的鸿沟。
我们还没有达到危机点。
但我们似乎正无情地朝着这个方向前进。本书的目的是挑战双方的那些政治家、战略家和将军们，因为他们高兴地走上了脱钩、遏制、对抗、冲突和冷战的滑坡道路。甚至是不可想象的事情：
战争本身。
相反，陆克文关注的是对未来的共同战略叙事的追求，这种叙事可能仍然被双方充分接受，对过去的理解和对未来的展望可能只是减少灾难的风险。
通过www.DeepL.com/Translator（免费版）翻译
The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict between the US and Xi Jinping's China
From a veteran diplomat and prime minster at the
heart of the Western alliance, and a deeply knowledgeable China watcher,
a way forward for the US and China to avoid a superpower conflict, and a
chilling vision of what that might look like if it was unleashed. The
Avoidable War confronts the growing sense that the US-China relationship
is beginning to hurtle out of control. Nationalists have gained ground
in the politics of both capitals. So-called "realists" are in control of
their respective national security policy agendas. "Liberal
internationalists", let alone "multilateralists", are written off. And
the United States has now formally concluded that forty years of
"strategic engagement" between China and the United States has now come
to an end, and ended in failure, and that we have now entered into a new
era of "strategic competition". There are no rules on this new road. A
broad economic, cyber and high technology war, and perhaps a broader
economic decoupling, is likely to become a continuing reality. As is the
widening gulf in the foreign policy, national security policy and
international economic policy perceptions and practice of both. We are
not yet at crisis point. But we seem to be headed relentlessly in that
direction. The purpose of this book is to challenge those politicians,
strategists and generals on both sides as they happily embark on the
slippery slope of decoupling, containment, confrontation, conflict and
Cold War. Even the unthinkable: war itself. Instead Rudd focuses of the
pursuit of a common strategic narrative for the future that might still
be sufficiently acceptable to both sides, an understanding of the past
and a vision of the future that might just reduce the risk of
catastrophe.
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