一战本来是可以避免的，坦率地说，它是多么容易发生，令人不安。
一战开始时，奥匈帝国的继承人弗朗茨-斐迪南被塞尔维亚国民暗杀。弗朗茨当时正与他的妻子访问塞雷沃，并在游行队伍中巡视街道。在这段车程中，有多次暗杀企图，但都失败了，整个事件被取消了。
第一次世界大战和第二次世界大战都可以避免吗？
一战本来是可以避免的，坦率地说，它是多么容易发生，令人不安。
一战以奥匈帝国继承人弗朗茨-斐迪南被塞尔维亚国民暗杀开始。弗朗茨当时正与他的妻子访问塞雷沃，并在游行队伍中巡视街道。在这段车程中，有多次暗杀企图，但都失败了，整个事件被取消了。
弗朗茨改道去了医院，在从上述医院返回的路上，他的司机迷路了，恰好在其中一名刺客的旁边停下并转身。
如果弗兰兹不改道，如果弗兰兹的司机后来调头，或者如果弗兰兹雇了另一个司机，这一切都可以避免。
不过更神奇的是，看看这个。
所以奥地利匈牙利对这次暗杀的反应是想对塞尔维亚宣战。但有一个问题。奥匈帝国的匈牙利人拒绝在塞尔维亚被吞并（征服）的情况下签署战争。作为一种妥协，大家都同意奥匈帝国的军队将在贝尔格莱德停下来。基本上，他们将入侵，进入塞尔维亚几英里，取得快速的胜利，然后就可以了。这一点很重要。
塞尔维亚向俄国寻求支持，奥地利向德国寻求支持。这两个国家都希望得到他们更强大的盟友的支持，他们也得到了支持。
为了避免战争，奥地利的外交官会见了俄罗斯驻奥地利大使。这些人是朋友，已经合作了多年。他们在理论上已经达成了协议，只是在会面时敲定了最后的细节并签署了协议。他们开始喝酒、抽烟，然后砰的一声，俄罗斯大使当场因心脏病发作而死亡。
我不是在开玩笑。如果这家伙等了一个小时才心脏病发作，就不会有第一次世界大战了。更糟糕的是，当奥匈帝国和俄罗斯之间的战争一触即发时，在奥地利没有俄罗斯的外交官。
情况越来越糟。现在我们开始动员了
让我们来谈谈动员的问题。各国没有钱在边境上部署和武装数百万士兵。因此，如果战争似乎是肯定的，他们就会 "动员"，意思是所有的士兵都会被武装起来，被派往需要他们的地方。这个过程可能需要几周甚至几个月。
俄罗斯正在与奥地利驻俄罗斯的外交官（在莫斯科）打交道。他正试图让俄罗斯不要动员，并希望把事情解决。俄罗斯外交官说："如果奥地利征服塞尔维亚，那将是战争"。
也许你错过了它。俄罗斯仍然认为奥匈帝国计划征服塞尔维亚。奥地利驻俄罗斯的外交官和俄罗斯人都不知道，奥地利已经同意不征服塞尔维亚。这一事实从未被曝光过。
又一次错过了机会
奥地利和俄国开始向边境地区动员。德国也在动员，欧洲大部分地区也在动员。战争似乎是肯定的。
外交工具已经崩溃。在这严峻的时刻，欧洲的领导人开始了人与人之间的合作。
沙皇尼古拉二世在深夜直接联系威廉二世。两人毕竟是儿时的朋友和表兄弟。
他们交谈后，沙皇尼古拉二世同意退位，他将取消动员，结束这场战争的威胁。
沙皇尼古拉二世去找他的内阁和政府，命令他们让军队停下来。他们为此大发雷霆。他们花了几周时间来动员军队!在奥地利和德国军队在他们的边界上停战--这太疯狂了。
争论爆发了，沙皇被要求继续调动军队。在所有这些混乱中，沙皇被指责为优柔寡断，这让他很不爽（这是个痛点）。这让沙皇很不高兴，为了 "显示实力"，他允许继续动员军队。
因此，第一次世界大战本来是可以避免的--相当容易。
另一方面，第二次世界大战则无法避免。希特勒的主要目标（实际上也是唯一的目标）是征服 "东方"，消灭大部分人口，用德裔重新填充。
希特勒总是要对波兰和最终对苏联宣战。这总是会把法国和英国卷入战争。
WW1 could have been prevented and it is frankly disturbing how easily it could have happened
So WW1 starts with the assassination of the Austro-Hungarian heir Franz Ferdinand by Serbian nationals. Franz was visiting Serejvo with his wife and touring the streets in a parade. During this drive, there are multiple assassination attempts that all fail and the whole thing is called off.
Could both World War 1 and World War 2 have been prevented?
WW1 could have been prevented and it is frankly disturbing how easily it could have happened
So WW1 starts with the assassination of the Austro-Hungarian heir Franz Ferdinand by Serbian nationals. Franz was visiting Serejvo with his wife and touring the streets in a parade. During this drive, there are multiple assassination attempts that all fail and the whole thing is called off.
Franz diverts his route to go to the hospital and on the way back from said hospital his driver gets lost and just so happens to stop and turn around right next to one of the assassins.
Is Franz does not divert, if Franz’s driver turns around later, or if Franz hired another driver this all could have been prevented.
It’s even more amazing though, check this out.
So Austria Hungary responds to this assassination by wanting to declare war on Serbia. There is a problem though. The Hungarian element of the Austro-Hungarian nation refuses to sign off on a war if Serbia is annexed (conquered). As a compromise, everyone agrees the Austrian army will stop at Belgrade. Basically, they will invade, move a few miles into Serbia, get their quick win, and call it good. This is important.
Serbia goes to Russia to get their support and Austria goes to Germany. Both nations want support from their more powerful allies and they get it.
To avert war the Austrian diplomat meets with the Russian ambassador to Austria. These men are friends and have worked together for years. They have a deal in theory and are just meeting to hammer out the final details and sign it. They start to drink, smoke, and boom- the Russian ambassador dies right then and there of a heart attack.
I am not kidding. If this dude waited an hour to have a heart attack there is no WW1. Worse yet as war is on the verge of breaking out between Austria-Hungary and Russia there is no Russian diplomat in Austria.
It gets worse. Now we get to mobilizations
Let's talk about mobilization. Nations didn’t have the money to keep millions of soldiers deployed and armed on the border. So if war seemed certain they would “mobilize” meaning all the soldiers would be armed and sent to wherever they were needed. This process can take weeks or even months.
Russia is dealing with the Austrian diplomat to Russia (in Moscow). He is trying to get Russia to not mobilize and wants to work things out. The Russian diplomat says “if Austria conquers Serbia it will be war”.
Maybe you missed it. Russia still thinks Austria-Hungary plans to conquer Serbia. Neither the Austrian diplomat in Russia nor the Russians have any idea that Austria had already agreed not to conquer Serbia. This fact is never brought to light.
Another chance missed
Austria and Russia begin to mobilize to the border. Germany is mobilizing too as is much of Europe. War seems certain.
To tools of diplomacy have broken. In this dire hour, the leaders of Europe start to work man to man.
Tsar Nicolas II contacts Wilhelm II directly late at night. The two were boyhood friends and cousins after all.
They talk and Tsar Nicolas II agrees to stand down, he will cancel the mobilization and end this threat of war.
Tsar Nicolas II goes to his cabinet and government and orders them to stand the army down. They fly into a rage over this. They have spent weeks mobilizing the army! To stand down with Austrian and German forces on their border- it’s madness.
Arguing breaks out and the Tsar is asked to keep the army mobilized. In all this chaos the Tsar is accused of being indecisive, and this gets to him (it's a sore point). This upsets the Tsar and it an effort to “show strength” he allows the mobilization to continue.
So WW1 could have been avoided- rather easily.
WW2 on the other hand could not. Hitler’s chief goal (and only goal really) was to conquer “the East” and exterminate most of the population and re-populate it with ethnic Germans.
Hitler is always going to declare war on Poland and eventually the USSR. This is always going to draw France and the UK into the war.
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