可避免的戰爭：美國與習近平治理下的中國

 可避免的战争

陆克文

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作为西方联盟的核心人物，一位资深的外交官和总理，以及一位知识渊博的中国观察家，为美国和中国提供了避免超级大国冲突的途径，并对一旦冲突爆发可能出现的情况提出了令人心寒的看法。

可避免的战争》面对的是一种日益增长的感觉，即美中关系开始失去控制。

民族主义者在两国首都的政治中都获得了地位。

所谓的 "现实主义者 "控制着他们各自的国家安全政策议程。

"自由国际主义者"，更不用说 

"多边主义者"，已经被注销了。

而美国现在已经正式得出结论，中国和美国之间四十年的 "战略接触 "现在已经结束，并以失败告终，

我们现在已经进入了一个 "战略竞争 "的新时代。

在这条新的道路上没有任何规则。

一场广泛的经济、网络和高科技战争，也许还有更广泛的经济脱钩，很可能成为一个持续的现实。

正如两者在外交政策、国家安全政策和国际经济政策的认知和实践中不断扩大的鸿沟。

我们还没有达到危机点。但我们似乎正无情地朝着这个方向前进。

本书的目的是挑战双方的那些政治家、战略家和将军们，因为他们愉快地走上了脱钩、遏制、对抗、冲突和冷战的滑坡之路。

甚至是不可想象的事情：战争本身。

相反，陆克文关注的是对未来的共同战略叙事的追求，这种叙事可能仍然被双方充分接受，对过去的理解和对未来的展望可能只是减少灾难的风险。

The Avoidable War

Kevin Rudd

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From a veteran diplomat and prime minster at the heart of the Western alliance, and a deeply knowledgeable China watcher, a way forward for the US and China to avoid a superpower conflict, and a chilling vision of what that might look like if it was unleashed. The Avoidable War confronts the growing sense that the US-China relationship is beginning to hurtle out of control. Nationalists have gained ground in the politics of both capitals. So-called "realists" are in control of their respective national security policy agendas. "Liberal internationalists", let alone "multilateralists", are written off. And the United States has now formally concluded that forty years of "strategic engagement" between China and the United States has now come to an end, and ended in failure, and that we have now entered into a new era of "strategic competition". There are no rules on this new road. A broad economic, cyber and high technology war, and perhaps a broader economic decoupling, is likely to become a continuing reality. As is the widening gulf in the foreign policy, national security policy and international economic policy perceptions and practice of both. We are not yet at crisis point. But we seem to be headed relentlessly in that direction. The purpose of this book is to challenge those politicians, strategists and generals on both sides as they happily embark on the slippery slope of decoupling, containment, confrontation, conflict and Cold War. Even the unthinkable: war itself. Instead Rudd focuses of the pursuit of a common strategic narrative for the future that might still be sufficiently acceptable to both sides, an understanding of the past and a vision of the future that might just reduce the risk of catastrophe.