美國空軍能保衛台灣對抗中國嗎？
俄烏戰爭會拖到現在
更主要原因在
普丁希望的烏克蘭內部叛變
沒有發生
只好撤出基輔
轉攻烏東烏南
台灣呢？
在笑死人了的轉型正義下
台灣內部分裂，但不是叛變
勢必比烏克蘭更有可能發生！
####
這是美國的兵棋推演
美國需要無人機無人艦下一代戰鬥機
外加週邊國家的支持軍援
在蒙受重大損失後
才有可能慘勝老共
這是一支未來的軍隊
但現在還不存在
更重要的是台灣可以投資多少國防力量
中產階級的台灣願意像貧窮的烏克蘭犧牲嗎？
週邊國家也願意像歐盟一樣犧牲嗎？
香港明明被四大土地資產階級控制
但笨蛋港青不去攻擊四大家族
卻越級挑戰最強的老共
難怪會失敗
大腸花是利用國民黨本省外省內部矛盾
佔領立法院
成功瓦解國民黨
建立新勢力
港青號召幾百萬人上街
卻一無所存
淪落天涯
就知道瓦解敵人的堅強堡壘
是要從內部開始
不是兵棋推演
2021年11月24日 主题：中国台湾地区中国台湾地区。印度-太平洋地区 博客品牌。The Reboot 标签:美国空军战争游戏中国台湾NGAD无人机
这场战争游戏预示着向正确的概念方向迈出了一步，但还有很多工作要做。
作者：Mark Episkopos
以下是你需要记住的。据《国防新闻》报道，在去年秋末举行的一场战争游戏中，该部队用先进的无人机和下一代战斗机击退了中国对台湾的入侵。
美国空军终于有了一个成功击退中国入侵台湾的计划，但要付出高昂的代价。
中国在过去十年中逐渐增强了对在太平洋地区行动的美国资产的实力，但早些时候的一系列战争游戏表明，区域力量平衡已经急剧向有利于北京的方向转变。注意到中国在对抗美国力量投射能力方面取得的日益成功，空军中将克林顿-希诺特提出了一个暗淡的评估。"在那个时候，我们的战争游戏的趋势不仅仅是我们在输，而且是我们输得更快......。 在2018年的战争游戏之后，我清楚地记得我们的一位战争游戏大师站在空军部长和参谋长面前告诉他们，我们不应该再玩这种[中国进攻台湾]的战争游戏场景，因为我们知道会发生什么。"
"确切的答案是，如果美国军方不改变路线，"希诺特继续说，"那就是我们将快速失去。在这种情况下，一位美国总统很可能会面临几乎是既成事实的局面"。
空军的结论是，需要采取根本不同的方法。据《防务新闻》报道，在去年秋末举行的一场战争游戏中，该部队以先进的无人机和下一代战斗机的名册击退了中国对台湾的入侵。这支网络化、可生存的部队率先保卫了台湾，击退了中国的入侵部队，从而阻止了北京实现其长期以来的战略目标，即吸收其东部的岛国。
乍一看，这场战争游戏似乎预示着某种转折点：近年来第一次，美国军队赢得了与中国的模拟冲突。然而，这一胜利伴随着严重的警告。首先，任何这样的冲突都意味着美国和台湾方面的巨大损失。"我们所规划的部队，比如说，在2018年遭受了破坏性的损失。这支部队并没有承受那些毁灭性的损失。他们确实遭受了损失。我们确实损失了很多空军人员。这是一场艰难的战斗，"希诺特说。"这就涉及到在印度洋-太平洋地区，实际上是在他们的前门，要怎样才能对抗中国的问题。答案是：它需要一种能够承受这些损失的意愿。这只是我们面临的一个困难的、非常清醒的现实。"根据台湾高雄海军学院前教官卢立石的估计，美国将不得不部署多达80%的海军和空军，以赢得与中国在南海和东海的冲突，因为后者在后勤和作战方面享有重大优势。
但还有一个问题：美国军方赢得这场战争游戏，在很大程度上是利用了它目前不具备的技术，而且是在现实情况下可能不成立的假设。即将推出的下一代空中优势（NGAD）战斗机在对敌方领空的高风险渗透行动中发挥了关键作用，目前正处于开发或采购阶段的几种自主 "忠诚僚机 "无人机也是如此。模拟的部队组成和部署模式部分是预先确定的，这对美方是有利的。战争游戏还假定军方已经完全实施了正在进行的全域联合指挥与控制，使美国的资产能够作为一支相互联系的部队作战；同样，它也假定了台北方面未来的某些防御投资。
战争游戏表明在正确的概念方向上迈出了一步，但如果华盛顿要获得可信地阻止和击败中国对台湾的入侵的能力，还有更多的工作要做--在战略规划和持续的防御投资方面都是如此。
Mark Episkopos是《国家利益》的国家安全记者。
这篇文章被转载以引起读者的兴趣。
图片。路透社
November 24, 2021 Topic: China Taiwan Region: Indo-Pacific Blog Brand: The Reboot Tags: US Air ForceWar GamesChinaTaiwanNGADDrones
The war game signals a step in the right conceptual direction, but there is much more work to be done.
by Mark Episkopos
Here's What You Need to Remember: The service repelled a Chinese invasion of Taiwan with a roster of advanced drones and next-generation fighters during a war game held late last fall, according to Defense News.
The U.S. Air Force finally has a plan for successfully repelling a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, but only at a steep cost.
China has spent the past decade gradually building up its strength against U.S. assets operating in the Pacific, but a series of earlier war games have shown just how drastically the regional balance of power has shifted in Beijing’s favor. Noting China’s growing success in countering U.S. power projection capabilities, Air Force Lt. Gen. Clinton Hinote offered a bleak assessment: “At that point, the trend in our war games was not just that we were losing, but we were losing faster . . . After the 2018 war game I distinctly remember one of our gurus of wargaming standing in front of the Air Force secretary and chief of staff and telling them that we should never play this war game scenario [of a Chinese attack on Taiwan] again because we know what is going to happen.”
“The definitive answer, if the U.S. military doesn’t change course” Hinote continued, “is that we’re going to lose fast. In that case, an American president would likely be presented with almost a fait accompli.”
The Air Force concluded that a fundamentally different approach is needed. The service repelled a Chinese invasion of Taiwan with a roster of advanced drones and next-generation fighters during a war game held late last fall, according to Defense News. This networked, survivable force spearheaded the defense of Taiwan, rebuffing the Chinese invasion force and thus blocking Beijing from realizing its long-held strategic goal of absorbing the island nation to its east.
At first glance, the war game seemed to herald something of a turning point: for the first time in recent years, the U.S. military won a simulated conflict with China. However, that victory comes with serious caveats. First, any such conflict implies substantial losses for both the U.S. and Taiwanese sides. “The force that we had programmed, say, in 2018 took devastating losses. This force doesn’t take those devastating losses. They do take losses. We do lose a lot of airmen. It is a difficult fight,” Hinote said. “And that kind of gets to the point of what does it take to stand up to China in the Indo-Pacific, literally on their front doorstep. And the answer is: It takes a willingness to be able to suffer those losses. It’s just a difficult, very sobering reality that we have.” The United States would have to deploy as much as 80 percent of its Navy and Air Force to win a pitched conflict with China in the South and East China Seas, where the latter enjoys significant logistical and operational advantages, according to an estimate by Lu Li-shih, a former instructor at Taiwan’s Naval Academy in Kaohsiung.
But there is yet another problem: the U.S. military won the war game in large part with technology it does not currently possess, and under assumptions that may not hold up in real-life circumstances. The upcoming Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter played a key role in high-risk penetration operations into enemy airspace, as did several types of autonomous “loyal wingman” drones that are currently either in the development or acquisition stage. The simulation’s force composition and deployment patterns were partially pre-determined in a way that is beneficial to the U.S. side. The war game also assumed that the military had fully implemented its ongoing Joint All Domain Command and Control, allowing U.S. assets to fight as an interlinked force; it likewise presumed certain future defense investments on the part of Taipei.
The war game signals a step in the right conceptual direction, but there is much more work to be done—both in terms of strategic planning as well as ongoing defense investments—if Washington is to acquire the capability to credibly deter and defeat a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
Mark Episkopos is a national security reporter for the National Interest.
This article is being reprinted for reader interest.
Image: Reuters
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