危险地带：即将到来的与中国的冲突

 危险地带：即将到来的与中国的冲突

迈克尔-贝克利，哈尔-布兰德

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对美中竞争的挑衅性和紧迫性的分析。美国和中国正在进行一场可能持续一个世纪的 "超级大国马拉松"，这已成为传统智慧。然而，Hal Brands和Michael Beckley提出了一个反直觉的问题。如果这场竞争的最尖锐阶段更像是一场长达十年的短跑，那会怎样？中美竞争的驱动力是地缘政治利益的冲突，以及关于威权主义还是民主将主导21世纪的鲜明的意识形态争议。但历史和中国目前的发展轨迹都表明，这种竞争将在2020年代达到最危险的时刻。中国正处在一个危险的时刻：强大到足以暴力挑战现有秩序，但又对时间站在自己这边失去信心。从古代到现在的无数例子表明，当崛起的大国的财富逐渐减少，困难倍增，并意识到他们必须现在就实现自己的野心，否则就会永远错过机会时，他们会变得最具侵略性。中国已经开始走这条路了。见证了它对台湾的侵略，它破纪录的军事集结，以及它为支配将塑造世界未来的关键技术所做的努力。从长远来看，中国的挑战很可能比许多悲观主义者目前认为的更容易控制--但在2020年代，中美冲突的步伐将加快，战争的前景将是令人恐惧的现实。Brands和Beckley认为，美国仍将需要一个可持续的方法来赢得一场持久的全球竞争。但首先，它需要一个近期的战略来驾驭未来的危险区域。

Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China

Michael Beckley, Hal Brands

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A provocative and urgent analysis of the U.S.-China rivalry. It has become conventional wisdom that America and China are running a "superpower marathon" that may last a century. Yet Hal Brands and Michael Beckley pose a counterintuitive question: What if the sharpest phase of that competition is more like a decade-long sprint? The Sino-American contest is driven by clashing geopolitical interests and a stark ideological dispute over whether authoritarianism or democracy will dominate the 21st century. But both history and China's current trajectory suggest that this rivalry will reach its moment of maximum danger in the 2020s. China is at a perilous moment: strong enough to violently challenge the existing order, yet losing confidence that time is on its side. Numerous examples from antiquity to the present show that rising powers become most aggressive when their fortunes fade, their difficulties multiply, and they realize they must achieve their ambitions now or miss the chance to do so forever. China has already started down this path. Witness its aggression toward Taiwan, its record-breaking military buildup, and its efforts to dominate the critical technologies that will shape the world's future. Over the long run, the Chinese challenge will most likely prove more manageable than many pessimists currently believe--but during the 2020s, the pace of Sino-American conflict will accelerate, and the prospect of war will be frighteningly real. America, Brands and Beckley argue, will still need a sustainable approach to winning a protracted global competition. But first, it needs a near-term strategy for navigating the danger zone ahead.