看不见的中国

 无形的中国

Scott Rozelle, Natalie Hell

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正如上海闪亮的天际线所证明的那样，中国已经迅速从一个赤贫的地方转变为一个现代的、城市的、精通技术的经济强国。

但正如Scott Rozelle和Natalie Hell在《看不见的中国》中所展示的那样，事实要复杂得多，可能是一个令人担忧的严重原因。

中国的增长在很大程度上依赖于非熟练劳动力。推动国家崛起的大多数工人来自农村，从未上过高中。虽然这种国家增长战略三十年来一直有效，但非技术工人的工资率终于在上升，诱使中国境内的公司以前所未有的速度实现自动化，并引发了在其他国家寻求更廉价劳动力的公司外流。十年前，几乎所有在美国沃尔玛销售的产品都是在中国制造。今天，情况不再是这样了。随着对劳动力需求的变化，中国似乎没有好的后备计划。几十年来，中国在物质基础设施方面的所有投资，都没有在人员方面进行足够的投资。最近的进展可能来得太晚了。根据在中国实地进行的广泛调查，Rozelle和Hell发现，虽然中国可能是世界上第二大经济体，但其劳动力的教育水平在所有可比国家中是最低的之一。中国一半以上的人口以及绝大多数的儿童都来自农村地区。随着中国经济的变化和制造业工作的转移，他们低水平的基础教育可能使许多人无法在正式工作场所找到工作。在《看不见的中国》中，Rozelle和Hell不仅谈到了一个紧迫的人道主义问题，还谈到了一个潜在的经济危机，这个危机可能会颠覆全球的经济和对外关系。如果有太多的人在结构上无法就业，那么在中国境内外的影响都可能是严重的。如果我们要避免一场潜在的国际规模的危机，了解今天中国的情况是至关重要的。本书是一个紧急而及时的行动呼吁，经济学家、政策制定者、商业界和普通读者都应该阅读。

Invisible China

Scott Rozelle, Natalie Hell

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As the glittering skyline in Shanghai seemingly attests, China has quickly transformed itself from a place of stark poverty into a modern, urban, technologically savvy economic powerhouse. But as Scott Rozelle and Natalie Hell show in Invisible China, the truth is much more complicated and might be a serious cause for concern. China’s growth has relied heavily on unskilled labor. Most of the workers who have fueled the country’s rise come from rural villages and have never been to high school. While this national growth strategy has been effective for three decades, the unskilled wage rate is finally rising, inducing companies inside China to automate at an unprecedented rate and triggering an exodus of companies seeking cheaper labor in other countries. Ten years ago, almost every product for sale in an American Walmart was made in China. Today, that is no longer the case. With the changing demand for labor, China seems to have no good back-up plan. For all of its investment in physical infrastructure, for decades China failed to invest enough in its people. Recent progress may come too late. Drawing on extensive surveys on the ground in China, Rozelle and Hell reveal that while China may be the second-largest economy in the world, its labor force has one of the lowest levels of education of any comparable country. Over half of China’s population—as well as a vast majority of its children—are from rural areas. Their low levels of basic education may leave many unable to find work in the formal workplace as China’s economy changes and manufacturing jobs move elsewhere. In Invisible China, Rozelle and Hell speak not only to an urgent humanitarian concern but also a potential economic crisis that could upend economies and foreign relations around the globe. If too many are left structurally unemployable, the implications both inside and outside of China could be serious. Understanding the situation in China today is essential if we are to avoid a potential crisis of international proportions. This book is an urgent and timely call to action that should be read by economists, policymakers, the business community, and general readers alike.