中国入侵的威胁。台湾的防御和美国的亚洲战略

 The Chinese Invasion Threat: Taiwan's Defense and American Strategy in Asia

https://forum.ettoday.net/news/1879535

宋兆文／資深國防諮詢委員

是誤導不是大解密

美國智庫2049計畫研究所研究員與富比世特約撰述易思安（Ian Easton），所著「中共攻台大解密」一書，最近又再引起政治人物與網路討論，好像共軍機密都被易思安揭露出來。

中国入侵的威胁。台湾的防御和美国的亚洲战略

攻击的前奏

分析师和前官员告诉格子网，他们设想了一系列有关台湾冲突的头几天可能发生的情况。战争游戏总是充满了假设和变化的场景，但有几个共同点出现了。

中国军方可能不会有的一件事是出其不意的因素。国防分析家伊恩-伊斯顿(Ian Easton)2017年出版的《中国的入侵威胁》(The Chinese Invasion Threat)一书，根据泄露的中国军事文件想象了战争可能的样子，他表示，如果台湾的防御系统处于全盛状态，将有大约100万到200万战斗部队要跨越海峡。(如果中国已经通过煽动政变或暗杀总统而使台湾处于劣势，那么较小的部队可能是可行的）。相比之下，1944年的诺曼底入侵，涉及约13.2万名士兵的登陆部队。

研究美中竞争的塔夫茨大学教授和美国企业研究所研究员迈克尔-贝克利说，中国在台湾的登陆将是 "现代军事史上最复杂的行动"。

The Chinese Invasion Threat: Taiwan's Defense and American Strategy in Asia

Prelude to attack

Analysts and former officials told Grid they envision a range of scenarios for how the first few days of a conflict over Taiwan might play out. War-gaming is always fraught with hypothetical and shifting scenarios, but several common threads emerge.

One thing the Chinese military would probably not have on its side is the element of surprise. Defense analyst Ian Easton, whose 2017 book, “The Chinese Invasion Threat,” imagines what war might look like based on leaked Chinese military documents, suggests that somewhere between 1 to 2 million combat troops would have to cross the strait if Taiwan’s defenses were at full strength. (If China already had Taiwan on the back foot by instigating a coup or assassinating its president, a smaller force might be feasible.) The 1944 Normandy invasion, by contrast, involved a landing force of some 132,000 troops.

A Chinese landing on Taiwan would “be the most complex operation in modern military history,” said Michael Beckley, a professor at Tufts University and fellow at the American Enterprise Institute who studies U.S.-China competition.