缺席的超级大国：页岩革命和一个没有美国的世界

 缺席的超级大国：页岩革命和一个没有美国的世界

Peter Zeihan

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世界正在以我们大多数人认为不可理解的方式发生变化。恐怖主义从中东蔓延到欧洲。俄罗斯、伊朗、沙特阿拉伯、中国和日本争夺谁能最具侵略性。亚洲和欧洲的金融崩溃破坏了增长，挑战了来之不易的政治稳定。

然而，对美国人来说，这些变化是美妙的。在世界大国中，只有美国在地理上是富裕的，在人口上是强大的，在能源上是安全的。最后一块--美国的能源安全--正迅速成为全球局势中最关键的一块。

美国的页岩革命不仅切断了将美国的命运与更广泛的世界联系起来的最大的剩余纽带。它使美国重新工业化，加速了全球秩序的崩溃，并引发了一系列广泛的军事冲突，这些冲突将影响未来二十年。共同的主题是什么？就在全球经济陷入混乱的时候，就在全球能源变得危险的时候，就在世界真正需要美国人参与的时候，美国将...缺席。

在2014年的《意外的超级大国》中，地缘政治战略家彼得-泽汉提出了地理、人口和能源趋势正在瓦解全球体系的观点。在《缺席的超级大国》中，泽汉将这一故事向前推进了一步，描绘了世界陷入混乱时的威胁和机遇。

编辑点评

"彼得-泽汉写了一本聪明的、精心制作的翻页书，阐述了美国在世界中的角色发生变化的令人信服的原因--以及为什么这对美国人来说是个好消息，而对其他所有人来说则是令人清醒的。他生动地描述了美国的好运对世界其他地区的影响，使这本书成为一本原创的、有价值的读物"。-- 伊恩-布雷默，欧亚集团

"泽涵在《意外的超级大国》中对二战后的全球地缘政治和经济体系进行了开创性的分析，并预测了美国因其新能源安全和基于页岩革命的动态经济而退出其作为全球秩序安全保障者的主要角色时可能发生的情况。彼得在大量客观的人口、能源、经济和地缘政治指标的基础上，根据美国向内关注而排除国际秩序的影响，提出了挑衅性的设想。本书以其标志性的不苟言笑的机智表达，应该是公共和私人领导人的必读之作。如果特朗普总统在接受指挥时只有一本书可读，那就应该是这本。"-- 尊敬的戴夫-麦考迪(Dave McCurdy)，美国众议院议员(D - Ok, 1981-1995)，在苏联解体和整个沙漠风暴行动期间担任众议院情报委员会主席。美国天然气协会的主席和首席执行官。

"不存在的超级大国 "是了解塑造地缘政治并可能引发几十年全球混乱的力量的必读书目。通过剖析能源和人口的技术和地理现实，Zeihan预测了美国退出积极的全球领导地位后将出现的冲突和经济调整。"-- 米特-罗姆尼，前马萨诸塞州州长和共和党总统候选人

The Absent Superpower: The Shale Revolution and a World Without America

Peter Zeihan

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The world is changing in ways most of us find incomprehensible. Terrorism spills out of the Middle East into Europe. Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, China and Japan vie to see who can be most aggressive. Financial breakdown in Asia and Europe guts growth, challenging hard-won political stability.

Yet for the Americans, these changes are fantastic. Alone among the world's powers, only the United States is geographically wealthy, demographically robust, and energy secure. That last piece -- American energy security -- is rapidly emerging as the most critical piece of the global picture.

The American shale revolution does more than sever the largest of the remaining ties that bind America's fate to the wider world. It re-industrializes the United States, accelerates the global order's breakdown, and triggers a series of wide ranging military conflicts that will shape the next two decades. The common theme? Just as the global economy tips into chaos, just as global energy becomes dangerous, just as the world really needs the Americans to be engaged, the United States will be...absent.

In 2014's The Accidental Superpower, geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan made the case that geographic, demographic and energy trends were unravelling the global system. Zeihan takes the story a step further in The Absent Superpower, mapping out the threats and opportunities as the world descends into Disorder.

Editorial Reviews

"Peter Zeihan has written a smart, well-crafted page-turner that lays out the compelling reasons why America's role in the world has changed--and why that's good news for Americans and sobering for everyone else. His vivid account of the impact of America's good fortune for the rest of the world makes this an original and invaluable read." -- Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group

"Zeihan follows his groundbreaking analysis of the post-WWII global geopolitical and economic system in Accidental Superpower with a projection of what might happen whenthe U.S., because of its new energy security and dynamic economy based on the shale revolution, withdraws from its principle role as security guarantor of the global order. Peter builds on prodigious objective demographic, energy,economic and geopolitical indicators to frame provocative scenarios based onthe impact of an American inward focus to the exclusion of international order. Delivered with his trademark irreverent wit, this book should be a must readfor public and private leaders alike. If President Trump has but one book to read as he assumes command, it should be this one." -- Honorable Dave McCurdy, Memberof U.S. House of Representatives (D - Ok, 1981-1995), served as chairman of the House Intelligence Committee during the breakup of the Soviet Union and throughoutOperation Desert Storm. President and CEO of the American Gas Association.

"The Absent Superpower is a must-read to understand the forces that will shapegeopolitics and potentially ignite decades of global disorder. By dissectingthe technological and geographic realities of energy and demography, Zeihan forecasts theconflicts and economic realignments that will follow America's withdrawal fromactive global leadership." -- Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts and Republican presidential candidate