世界的尽头只是开始。描绘全球化的崩溃

 世界的尽头只是开始 (2022)

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世界的尽头只是开始。描绘全球化的崩溃》（Harper Business，2022年）。

Zeihan预测了民族国家应对他认为不可避免的非全球化后果的能力，特别关注运输、金融、能源、材料、制造业和农业部门。他预测美国的情况相对较好，因为它拥有大西洋和太平洋的通道、最深入和最完整的资本市场以及能源独立性--后者是最近通过页岩油革命获得的。他强调美国农业部门的生产力、该国的粮食出口、相对有利的气候和肥沃的土地是额外的好处。相比之下，Zeihan对美国的经济对手，特别是俄罗斯和中国，描绘了一幅看跌的长期图景。Zeihan强调，这些国家的人口结构老化，海运能力较差，而且它们各自的资本市场远不如美国的资本市场深入或一体化。他将后者归因于西方对俄罗斯的制裁，以及中国封闭的资本市场。他强调，中国对能源进口的深度依赖是另一个关键弱点。

Zeihan还预测，欧洲将面临自身的一些挑战，包括人口老龄化、能源依赖和缺乏获得重要工业材料的途径。Zeihan认为，非洲和印度将有许多严重的问题，包括养活其公民的能力。

The End of the World is just the Beginning (2022)

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The End of the World is just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization (Harper Business, 2022)

Zeihan forecasts the ability of nation states to cope with the consequences of what he sees as inevitable deglobalization, with special focus on transport, finance, energy, materials, manufacturing and agriculture sectors. He predicts the US to fare comparatively well, given its access to both the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, deepest and best integrated capital markets and its energy independence – the latter having been recently acquired through the shale oil revolution. He highlights the productive US agricultural sector, the country's food exports, relatively favorable climate and fertile land as additional boons. By contrast, Zeihan paints a bearish longer-term picture for the United States' economic rivals, especially Russia and China. Zeihan highlights these countries' ageing demographic profile, inferior maritime capacity, and their respective capital markets not being nearly as deep or integrated as those of the US. He attributes the latter to Western sanctions against Russia, and a closed capital market in China. He highlights China's deep reliance on energy imports as another key weakness.

Zeihan also predicts Europe will face several challenges of its own, including ageing demographics, energy dependence and lack of access to industrially important materials. Africa and India, according to Zeihan, will have numerous and severe problems, including the ability to feed their citizens.