意外的超级大国：美国的下一代优势和即将到来的全球失调

 意外的超级大国：美国的下一代优势和即将到来的全球失调

Zeihan, Peter

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在《世界是平的》和《未来100年》的畅销传统中，对美国的力量和非全球化作出了令人大开眼界的评估。

第二次世界大战接近尾声时，美国进行了一次大胆的战略赌博，重新构建了国际体系。帝国被废除，取而代之的是一个由美国海军执行的全球安排。随着世界上所有的海洋在历史上第一次变得安全，市场和资源被提供给所有人。敌人变成了伙伴。

我们认为这个系统是正常的--它不是。我们生活在一个借来的时间的人造世界里。

在《意外的超级大国》中，国际战略家彼得-泽汉研究了地理上的硬规则是如何侵蚀美国对自由贸易的承诺的；地球上的大部分地区正在老化，进入大规模退休状态，这将使市场和资本供应枯竭；以及在所有的困难中，正是不断贪婪的美国经济--在发达国家中独自一人--正在迅速接近能源独立。这些因素结合在一起，无异于颠覆了全球体系，迎来了一个新的（混乱）秩序。

对大多数人来说，这是一场等待中的灾难，但对美国人来说不是。页岩革命使美国人能够避开一个日益危险的能源市场。只有美国拥有足够大的青年人口，以逃避全球老龄化的吸吮。最重要的是，在一个去全球化的世界中，地理环境将比以往任何时候都重要，而美国的地理环境简直是超凡脱俗。

编辑点评

"许多人认为，美国经济与它的主要竞争对手相比有一些固有的优势--更灵活的结构、更强大的创业传统和一个更有人口活力的社会。一本迷人的新书出现了，它说你还没有看到什么"。-- 法里德-扎卡里亚，CNN

关于作者

彼得-泽汉在地缘政治分析公司Stratfor工作了12年后，于2012年成立了自己的公司Zeihan on Geopolitics，他是该公司的分析副总裁。

The Accidental Superpower: The Next Generation of American Preeminence and the Coming Global Disorder

Zeihan, Peter

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An eye-opening assement of American power and deglobalization in the bestselling tradition of The World is Flat and The Next 100 Years.

Near the end of the Second World War, the United States made a bold strategic gambit that rewired the international system. Empires were abolished and replaced by a global arrangement enforced by the U.S. Navy. With all the world's oceans safe for the first time in history, markets and resources were made available for everyone. Enemies became partners.

We think of this system as normal - it is not. We live in an artificial world on borrowed time.

In The Accidental Superpower, international strategist Peter Zeihan examines how the hard rules of geography are eroding the American commitment to free trade; how much of the planet is aging into a mass retirement that will enervate markets and capital supplies; and how, against all odds, it is the ever-ravenous American economy that - alone among the developed nations - is rapidly approaching energy independence. Combined, these factors are doing nothing less than overturning the global system and ushering in a new (dis)order.

For most, that is a disaster-in-waiting, but not for the Americans. The shale revolution allows Americans to sidestep an increasingly dangerous energy market. Only the United States boasts a youth population large enough to escape the sucking maw of global aging. Most important, geography will matter more than ever in a de-globalizing world, and America's geography is simply sublime.

Editorial Reviews

"Many believe that the American economy has some inherent advantages over its major competitors -- a more flexible structure, stronger entrepreneurial traditions and a more demographically vibrant society. Along comes a fascinating new book that says you ain't seen nothing yet." -- Fareed Zakaria, CNN

About the Author

Peter Zeihan launched his own firm, Zeihan on Geopolitics, in 2012 after working for twelve years with the geopolitical analysis firm Stratfor, where he was Vice President of Analysis.