意外的超级大国：美国的下一代优势和即将到来的全球混乱

 意外的超级力量 (2014)

编辑

意外的超级大国：美国的下一代优势和即将到来的全球混乱》（Hachette Book Group，2014年）

泽涵将当前的地缘政治局势归结为美国在二战胜利后在布雷顿森林会议上强加给自由世界的全球经济体系的缩减。美国利用其压倒性的海军优势建立了一个全球贸易网络，作为结束对苏联遏制的手段，但却迟迟没有意识到，苏联已经不在了，世界上其他国家的市场也没有什么可提供的，因为它们由于人口老龄化正在进入严峻的经济困境，而美国在地理上和由于页岩油的存在，其能源独立性都受到了影响。

Zeihan写道，俄罗斯出生率的下降和熟练劳动力人口的老龄化将使俄罗斯与其八个欧盟成员国的邻国和乌克兰 "相撞"，他断言，"如果它（俄罗斯）在2022年前不采取行动，它将失去在军事上或经济上采取行动的能力"，尽管他没有具体预测俄罗斯在2022年入侵乌克兰。Zeihan写道，"如果俄罗斯采取零敲碎打的方式，它可以蚕食欧洲的东部边界，而不会过度挑衅西欧的重量级国家"[14] 。

Zeihan还预测美国将脱离世界，这将使其他国家在确保获得粮食和能源商品方面自生自灭。他预计国际混乱期即将到来。

美国对世界的不关心意味着美国的安全保证不可能得到兑现。一个世纪以来被遏制的竞争将重新出现。机会主义的战争将重新流行起来。历史将重新开始。我们一直认为是平静的地区将随着各国对资源、资本和市场的争夺而沸腾。对于无法确保供应的国家（无论其手段如何），它们完全退出现代世界的可能性并不小[15]。

该书广受好评，被BookAuthority指出是 "有史以来最好的政治书籍 "之一，[16][17]并被《华盛顿邮报》、《华尔街日报》和Kirkus评论给予高度评价[12][18][19] 。

Accidental Superpower (2014)

Edit

The Accidental Superpower: The Next Generation of American Preeminence and the Coming Global Disorder (Hachette Book Group, 2014)

Zeihan frames the current geopolitical situation as the drawdown of the global economic system that the United States imposed upon the free world at Bretton Woods after its victory in World War II: The United States used its overwhelming naval superiority to build a global trade network as a means towards the end of soviet containment, but is belatedly realizing that the Soviets are gone, that the rest of the world's markets don't have much to offer because they are entering dire economic straits due to aging demographies, and that America is insulated both geographically and, thanks to shale oil, its energy independence.[13]

Zeihan writes that Russia's declining birthrates and ageing population of skilled labor will put Russia on "a collision course" with its eight EU member state neighbors and Ukraine, asserting that "if it [Russia] fails to act before 2022, it will lose the capacity to act both militarily or economically," although he does not specifically predict Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Zeihan writes that "should Russia follow a piecemeal approach it can encroach upon Europe’s eastern borders without unduly provoking Western Europe’s heavyweights.”[14]

Zeihan also predicts a U.S. disengagement from the world, which in turn will leave other states to fend for themselves in securing access to food and energy commodities. He expects an imminent period of international disorder:

American disinterest in the world means that American security guarantees are unlikely to be honored. Competitions held in check for the better part of a century will return. Wars of opportunism will come back into fashion. History will restart. Areas that we have come to think of as calm will seethe as countries struggle for resources, capital, and markets. For countries unable to secure supplies (regardless of means), there is a more than minor possibility that they will simply fall out of the modern world altogether.[15]

The book was well received, noted as being one of the "best political books of all time" by BookAuthority,[16][17] and was given high praise by The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, and Kirkus reviews.[12][18][19]