不团结的国家。在一个无政府的世界中争夺权力

 不团结的国家。在一个无政府的世界中争夺权力

彼得-泽汉

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我们是否应该停止关心像中国、俄罗斯、德国和伊朗这样逐渐消失的地区大国？

国际合作的崩溃是否会将法国、土耳其、日本和沙特阿拉伯推到国际关注的顶端？

大多数国家和公司都没有为彼得-泽汉所说的我们已经生活在其中的世界做好准备。几十年来，美国的盟友在经济和人身安全方面都依赖于美国的力量。但随着美国孤立主义新时代的到来，其结果将令所有人吃惊。地缘政治战略家彼得-泽汉在《不团结的国家》中提出了一系列关于未来世界的反直觉论点，其中贸易协定正在瓦解，国际机构正在失去力量。

德国作为欧洲最强大的国家的地位将下降，法国将取代它的位置。每个国家都应该为中国的崩溃做准备，而不是朝鲜。我们已经看到，正如Zeihan预测的那样，对中东的看法发生了转变：该地区最危险的威胁不再是伊朗，而是沙特阿拉伯。世界已经如此习惯于美国主导的秩序的 "正常"，以至于我们都忘记了历史上的常态：在整个欧洲和亚洲有几个较小的、相互竞争的大国和经济体系。

美国并不是唯一一个从国际体系中后退的国家。从巴西到英国再到俄罗斯，领导人正在决定，即使大量的国家在日益增长的不团结的混乱中失败，他们的国家也会受益。世界并没有分崩离析--而是被推开了。那些为这种新的 "人人为我 "的道德观做好准备的国家和企业将获得胜利；那些被现状束缚的国家和企业将发现自己在新的世界无序中迷失了方向。

Disunited Nations》是一本聪明的、有趣的、必不可少的读物，它是一本肯定会引起争议的指南，分析了未来20年将出现的转变和由此产生的问题。我们正在进入一个混乱的时期，任何政治或企业领导人如果想在这个不确定的新时代生存和发展，就不能忽视泽涵的见解或他的信息。

编辑点评

"如果特朗普总统在上任后只有一本书可读，那就应该是这本。"-- 前美国众议院议员、美国天然气协会主席兼首席执行官戴夫-麦考迪(Dave McCurdy)先生对《缺席的超级大国》的评价

"又是一部高超的、经常是反直觉的、无情的、有趣的地缘政治惊险之旅。"--《柯克斯评论》（Kirkus Reviews）（星级评论

"彼得-泽汉写了一本聪明的、精心制作的翻页书，阐述了美国在世界上的角色发生变化的令人信服的原因--以及为什么这对美国人来说是个好消息，而对其他所有人来说则是令人清醒的。他生动地描述了美国的好运对世界其他地区的影响，使这本书成为一本原创的、有价值的读物"。 --欧亚集团的伊恩-布雷默(Ian Bremmer)，关于《缺席的超级大国》。

"泽涵将大量的信息和数据整合到清晰的分析中，并以易懂的、沸腾的散文写出......其结果是对地缘政治水晶球的刺激。"--《出版商周刊》。

关于作者

彼得-泽汉是一位地缘政治战略家，也是咨询公司Zeihan on Geopolitics的创始人。他的客户包括能源公司、金融机构、商业协会、农业利益集团、大学和美国军队。他是《意外的超级大国》和《缺席的超级大国》的作者。他住在德克萨斯州的奥斯汀。

Disunited Nations: The Scramble for Power in an Ungoverned World

Peter Zeihan

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Should we stop caring about fading regional powers like China, Russia, Germany, and Iran? Will the collapse of international cooperation push France, Turkey, Japan, and Saudi Arabia to the top of international concerns?

Most countries and companies are not prepared for the world Peter Zeihan says we’re already living in. For decades, America’s allies have depended on its might for their economic and physical security. But as a new age of American isolationism dawns, the results will surprise everyone. In Disunited Nations, geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan presents a series of counterintuitive arguments about the future of a world where trade agreements are coming apart and international institutions are losing their power. 

Germany will decline as the most powerful country in Europe, with France taking its place. Every country should prepare for the collapse of China, not North Korea. We are already seeing, as Zeihan predicts, a shift in outlook on the Middle East: it is no longer Iran that is the region’s most dangerous threat, but Saudi Arabia. The world has gotten so accustomed to the “normal” of an American-dominated order that we have all forgotten the historical norm: several smaller, competing powers and economic systems throughout Europe and Asia. 

America isn’t the only nation stepping back from the international system. From Brazil to Great Britain to Russia, leaders are deciding that even if plenty of countries lose in the growing disunited chaos, their nations will benefit. The world isn’t falling apart—it’s being pushed apart. The countries and businesses prepared for this new every-country-for-itself ethic are those that will prevail; those shackled to the status quo will find themselves lost in the new world disorder.

Smart, interesting, and essential reading, Disunited Nations is a sure-to-be-controversial guidebook that analyzes the emerging shifts and resulting problems that will arise in the next two decades. We are entering a period of chaos, and no political or corporate leader can ignore Zeihan’s insights or his message if they want to survive and thrive in this uncertain new time.

Editorial Reviews

“If President Trump has but one book to read as he assumes command, it should be this one.” -- Honorable Dave McCurdy, former Member of U.S. House of Representatives; President and CEO of the American Gas Association, on The Absent Superpower

"Another masterful, often counterintuitive, relentlessly entertaining geopolitical thrill ride."-- Kirkus Reviews (starred review)

“Peter Zeihan has written a smart, well-crafted page-turner that lays out the compelling reasons why America’s role in the world has changed--and why that’s good news for Americans and sobering for everyone else. His vivid account of the impact of America’s good fortune for the rest of the world makes this an original and invaluable read.” -- Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group, on The Absent Superpower

“Zeihan integrates a wealth of information and data into lucid analyses written in accessible, boisterous prose… The result is a stimulating look into the geopolitical crystal ball.” -- Publishers Weekly

About the Author

Peter Zeihan is a geopolitical strategist and the founder of the consulting firm Zeihan on Geopolitics. His clients include energy corporations, financial institutions, business associations, agricultural interests, universities, and the U.S. military. He is the author of The Accidental Superpower and The Absent Superpower. He lives in Austin, Texas.