智庫報告：2022年2月至2024年2月烏克蘭入侵事件.
智庫報告：2022年2月至2024年2月烏克蘭入侵事件
這是智庫關於入侵烏克蘭的報告集錦（並非詳盡無遺），涵蓋 2022 年 3 月至 2024 年 2 月期間。
2024年2月14日
歐洲外交關係委員會
俄羅斯和烏克蘭正陷入一場消耗戰——根據目前的預測，俄羅斯將贏得這場戰爭。文章指出，烏克蘭只有轉入機動戰才能實現其戰爭目標；否則，它無法收復失地。西方國家，尤其是歐洲國家，需要徹底改革其金融監管，並創造規模經濟，以大幅刺激無人機、彈藥、裝甲戰車等武器裝備的生產。
西班牙戰略研究所
烏克拉尼亞航空的應用：最初識別的阿爾古納斯 lecciones
俄羅斯空軍在烏克蘭戰爭中的表現有限，令許多專家感到驚訝。本文認為，要充分發揮“技術優勢”，技術必須以高度的適應性和紮實的理論基礎與知識為支撐。
外交關係委員會
從掌心大小的無人機到重達1000磅（454公斤）以上的大型無人機，烏克蘭已開發並擁有種類繁多的遙控飛行器，旨在阻礙和挫敗俄羅斯的軍事行動。報告指出，這項技術的應用範圍不斷擴大，使用量也持續成長，這不僅顯示無人機有可能在俄烏戰爭中扭轉戰局，也預示著它們能夠影響未來衝突的走向。
國防研究與分析研究所（IDSA）
俄烏戰爭期間，無人機在偵察和打擊行動的使用顯著增加。本文探討了俄羅斯和烏克蘭如何利用無人機技術在瞬息萬變的戰場上試圖佔優勢。
布魯金斯學會
截至2023年底，自2022年2月俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭以來，約有1,400萬烏克蘭人流離失所。這是當今世界規模最大的人口流離失所危機。本文試圖探究烏克蘭在戰亂時期展現的韌性，以及它如何幫助大量流離失所者努力恢復正常生活：公民能夠透過政府的線上公民入口網站便捷地獲取身分證件、學歷證書、醫療記錄和經濟援助。
布魯金斯學會
面對主權存亡的威脅，烏克蘭已展現出電子化政府在提升政府效率和增強國家韌性方面的關鍵作用。本簡報摘錄了1月30日發表的論文《烏克蘭：戰時數位韌性》中的一些重要觀點。
Österreichisches Institut für Internationale Politik（奧地利國際事務研究所）
從「直到達成目標」到「只要我們能做到」：西方會放棄烏克蘭嗎？
根據這份簡報，烏克蘭在2024年初陷入軍事僵局。維持戰爭的關鍵在於提升烏克蘭盟友（尤其是歐洲）的製造業能力。此外，該報告還指出，如果沒有西方持續的援助，烏克蘭將無法贏得這場戰爭。然而，無論是在美國還是在歐洲，支持烏克蘭「直至戰爭結束」的勢頭似乎都在減弱，尤其是在中東暴力衝突爆發後，烏克蘭問題一度淡出媒體視野。
歐洲之友
作者審視了戰地記者忽略的經濟因素，並提出了俄羅斯入侵失敗的有力理由。
Центр Разумкова （拉祖姆科夫中心）
Protection of civilians in war becomes an increasingly pressing issue due to the spread of violence and conflict around the world. According to the paper, in 2022, 56 countries were affected by armed conflicts, killing 147,609 people. The UN estimates that 100 civilians die in conflicts every day. Protection of civilians is a key aspect of warfare, an ethical and strategic imperative in armed conflicts where the enemy uses tactics to harm the civilian population.
Real Instituto Elcano (Elcano Royal Institute)
El papel de la tecnología en los recientes conflictos de Ucrania y Gaza: una valoración inicial
Recent conflicts show the importance of new technologies as well as the maintenance of essential military capabilities (replenishment of assets, ammunition and spare parts). This paper examines the extent to which technology has improved military capabilities in areas such as mobility, engagement, intelligence, and logistics, examining its use, its benefits and potential limitations.
The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies
Dangers and limitations of the Russian missile campaign
This winter Russia again hit Ukraine with a missile campaign. But although this is a serious danger for the Ukrainian people and might shake Western resolve, the author considers that it hides a fundamental Russian weakness: expensive missiles cannot replace cheap bombs and Russia does not have the missiles to keep up intensive attacks for long.
Globsec
Cleaning the Augean stables: humanitarian demining in Ukraine
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine presents unprecedented challenges in humanitarian demining. Traditional methods of clearing land from explosive ordnance are not feasible due to continuous attacks, making large portions of the territory unsafe, impacting economic sectors like agriculture. The report concludes that this situation calls for a multifaceted approach with international support and collaboration.
Migration Policy Institute
Faced with displacement crises that have stretched asylum systems to their limits, countries have increasingly begun to use alternatives to traditional protection tools to provide displaced individuals with legal status and access to certain rights and forms of assistance. Often, the status offered is temporary and does not rely on adjudication of individual cases. While such approaches are not completely new, as the brief notes, they have gained prominence through national responses to three of the largest displacement crises of the post-World War II era: displacement from Syria, Venezuela, and Ukraine.
Vox Ukraine
Return or stay? What factors impact the decisions of Ukrainian refugees
據各方估計，目前約有600萬烏克蘭難民身處海外。他們中的大多數人與祖國保持聯繫，並計劃返回。許多在2022年春季離開的人已經回來。研究留在海外的烏克蘭人或已返回烏克蘭人的態度，有助於了解影響難民返回決定和意願的因素。
新美國
本報告研究了烏克蘭的 eRecovery 計劃，該計劃旨在幫助改變全球危機後的財產賠償和歸還方式，使房屋因俄羅斯侵略而受損或被摧毀的烏克蘭人能夠透過烏克蘭政府的 Diia 電子化政府平台申請和獲得賠償。
國際危機組織
俄羅斯在烏克蘭的戰爭已進入第三年，目前陷入僵局，雙方都看不到勝利的希望。文章闡述了儘管美國援助可能終止，歐盟如何繼續支持烏克蘭。
阿法裡國際學院
本報告闡述了在六個歐洲國家（法國、德國、希臘、義大利、波蘭和西班牙）進行的一項調查結果，旨在評估公眾對歐盟外交與安全政策的看法。俄烏戰爭的背景可能會造成一些分歧：大多數國家的多數民眾表示願意支持烏克蘭，但支持程度和方式存在差異，尤其是在希臘和義大利。
歐洲改革中心
俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭後，歐盟在國防採購領域的參與度顯著提升，並已成為向烏克蘭提供軍事援助和訓練的重要力量。本政策簡報評估了歐盟進一步參與國防工業事務的前景，以及歐盟委員會主席烏爾蘇拉·馮德萊恩建立「歐洲防務聯盟」的願景所面臨的障礙。
國際政治學院
俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭導致大量俄羅斯人外流，其中主要包括技術嫻熟的專業人士和企業家。由於在尋求進入歐盟時面臨許多障礙，包括官僚主義作風和觀念上的阻力，大多數俄羅斯移民選擇在南高加索和中亞地區定居。本文探討了這些國家如何有效管理俄羅斯移民的到來，以期在利用其優勢的同時，緩和東道國社區可能出現的社會緊張局勢。
2024年1月16日
大西洋理事會
為了在持久戰中擊敗普京，烏克蘭必須在2024年轉向積極防禦。
As Russia’s full-scale invasion approaches the two-year mark, the author finds that it is vital for Ukraine’s military and political leadership to properly digest the lessons of 2022 and 2023. The most important conclusion to draw from the past two years of fighting is the dominance of defensive warfare over offensive operations. This has been demonstrated again and again, beginning with the failure of Russia’s initial blitzkrieg in the first month of the war.
European Council on Foreign Relations
Reformation nation: wartime politics in Ukraine
As the brief notes, politics in Ukraine remains lively in spite of the war, although the Ukrainian parliament’s pre-war make-up means it cannot fully reflect changing society and public opinion. The war means it is impossible to hold elections; this mirrors the past practice of other European countries during wartime. In the absence of elections, the EU can help foster pluralism in Ukraine by pursuing strong reform conditionality and warning against the over-centralisation of power around the presidential administration.
European Policy Centre
Russia’s war against Ukraine: lessons on human security
Russia’s war in Ukraine has unleashed the greatest human security crisis in Europe since the death of Stalin in 1953 and the 1990s Yugoslav wars. Despite global policies in place since the 1990s and rising evidence of war crimes in 2022-23, it has highlighted the international community’s failure to protect people. According to the author, this emboldens Russia to defeat freedom, security, and human dignity in the Euro-Atlantic area and worldwide unless the EU, NATO, OSCE and UN can act together.
Egmont – Royal Institute for International Relations
The ticking clock for Russia’s endless war: unveiling silent turmoil on Putin’s second front
While the prevailing narrative suggests that time currently favours Russia in the ongoing conflict, it is imperative to recognize that this temporal advantage is not boundless for either side. Within Russia, the primary enigma revolves around the durability of the existing social contract, a delicate balance that safeguards the isolated lives of the passive majority while the Kremlin relentlessly pursues its wartime objectives. The author points out that a ticking clock of an apparently endless war adds another layer of complexity to Russia’s strategic calculus.
German Council on Foreign Relations (Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik)
Preparing for a longer war: is a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia possible by 2024?
This paper discusses not only the current likelihood of a ceasefire, but also the costs of a ceasefire and possible alternatives. The main result of this analysis is that a ceasefire will not happen anytime soon. Ukraine needs a stronger position for negotiations with Russia, and Ukrainian society would not accept any concession towards the Russian aggressor at this point.
The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies
The dangers and limitations of the Russian missile campaign
This winter Russia again hits Ukraine with a missile campaign. But although this is a serious danger for the Ukrainian people and might shake Western resolve, the author believes that it hides a fundamental Russian weakness: expensive missiles cannot replace cheap bombs and Russia does not have the missiles to keep up intensive attacks for long.
Center for Strategic and International Studies
The impact of ending military aid to Ukraine: gradual decline then collapse
The publication tries to answer following questions: why military aid is needed; what aid does the US provide to Ukraine; what is included in the US military aid; what military aid has the US committed to; how long will the flow of equipment continue; if other countries can pick up the slack; what the effect of reductions in military aid will be; and if aid can continue without supplementary funding from Congress.
Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies
Ukraine as a locus of identity: why history and culture matter
This paper seeks to bring to the debate about the war between Russia and Ukraine the dimensions of history, culture and identity. It argues that these remain crucial to understanding this war and central to the EU as it formulates a way forward. It recommends that the EU continues to recognise that historical debates can lie at the base of contemporary crises.
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
The West’s inaction over Ukraine risks dangerous conclusions in Moscow
The article analyses possible consequences of the West abandoning Kyiv, arguing that if the US and EU allow funding to lapse, the consequences could threaten NATO’s core mission.
Centre for Eastern Studies
Putting Russia on trial: Ukrainian efforts to establish a tribunal for crimes of aggression
Almost since the beginning of the Russian invasion, Ukraine has been calling for the establishment of a special international tribunal to prosecute Russia for its crime of aggression. The article examines legal and political obstacles in this process.
Atlantic Council
Ukraine’s wartime economy is performing surprisingly well
The brief describes how visitors to today’s Ukraine are often surprised to find that away from the front lines, everything looks so normal. Most people in central and western Ukraine have returned home. Everything functions, including mobile phone networks, internet, electricity, and public transport. Foreign credit cards can be used virtually everywhere and digital banking services are both advanced and near-ubiquitous. There is no rationing, nor is there any sign of price controls. If anything, people complain that life is a little too normal.
Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche/Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung/Kiel Institute for the World Economy/IFO Institut
The Russian economy amidst the war and sanctions
The publication reports that the marked turnaround in Russia’s foreign trade in 2023 exerted strong downward pressure on the Russian rouble, which lost around 30% of its value. Official data suggest that capacity utilisation has reached very high levels, the labour market is extremely tight, and unemployment has plunged to an all-time low. With no end in sight to the war, the current growth trajectory will likely continue for some time, despite the fact that the economy is suffering from increased labour shortages and is falling behind on the technological front, due to Western sanctions.
Centre for Eastern Studies
At war with nature: the impact of the Russian invasion on Ukraine’s natural environment
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused huge environmental damage. The article indicates the areas that have been affected most and examines long-term consequences and potential threats.
Bruegel
The European Union should do better than confiscate Russia’s reserve money
The brief considers that the question of what to do with Russia’s foreign reserves, immobilised since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, is primarily a matter for the EU, where most of these reserves are held. It suggests that the EU should keep giving Ukraine the financial support it needs for its defence and other government expenditures but, in the present circumstances, should not confiscate Russia’s reserve assets to finance its support to Ukraine, given the EU’s commitment to a rules-based international financial order. The EU can use interest income made on immobilised Russian reserve assets to support Ukraine, but confiscating the assets now would be a mistake.
Friedrich Ebert Stiftung
According to the brief, the conditions under which the war ends will have far-reaching consequences for Europe's future security. Even if they cannot be clearly predicted at present, the fundamental parameters influencing the possible outcome of the war must be analysed with foresight.
European Council on Foreign Relations
Europe needs a new Ukraine strategy
The EU’s decision to start accession talks with Ukraine represents a symbolic victory rather than a practical one. With Ukraine struggling to secure crucial aid, and its counter-offensive failing to achieve its objectives, it is time to redefine what constitutes a Ukrainian victory and a Russian defeat.
German Council on Foreign Relations (Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik)
Transatlantic cooperation on Ukraine: how Europe could respond to uncertainty over US assistance
The paper contends that the difficult negotiations in the US Congress over a new aid package for Ukraine show that support has become a contested political issue in the US. Given the uncertainty over US assistance, European states should further strengthen their long-term commitment to Ukraine in terms of military and financial assistance. At the same time, given its own military shortcomings, Europe should seek avenues that could help convince Republicans in Congress to maintain US security assistance.
RAND Europe
The cost of the Ukraine war for Russia
In this report, researchers present estimates of what costs Russia is incurring as a result of its invasion of Ukraine. They find that over the long term and even with a stalemated war, Russia's economy and the standard of living of its people are likely to decline - with the main factor sustaining Russia's economy being export revenue earned from oil and gas sales. Nonetheless, the researchers find that such costs are likely to be sustainable for Russia for a period of at least several years.
18.12.2023
European Council on Foreign Relations
Reformation nation: wartime politics in Ukraine
The main statement of this brief is that politics in Ukraine remains lively despite the war, although the Ukrainian parliament’s pre-war composition means it cannot fully reflect changing society and public opinion. The war means it is impossible to hold elections; this mirrors the past practice of other European countries during wartime. In the absence of elections, the EU can help foster pluralism in Ukraine by pursuing strong reform conditionality and warning against the over-centralisation of power around the presidential administration.
Chatham House - The Royal Institute of International Affairs
Russia’s plan B is working: the West must not give up on Ukraine now
The author criticises European fatigue regarding the war in Ukraine as giving in to a central aim of Russian president Vladimir Putin and makes clear that if a failure to provide Ukraine with necessary military equipment and financial support would mean its defeat, the provision of such aid could give it a victory.
Friends of Europe
No quick end to the war in Ukraine: so how do we get ready for the long haul?
The paper discusses the state of play of Russia's war against Ukraine and suggests that Ukraine is now in need of "game changers" that might change the outlook of the war quickly. It argues that current priorities involve holding the Eastern front over the winter, preventing Russia from building further fortifications, define Ukrainian strategy for the coming year and provide Ukraine with bigger stocks of ammunition, as well as helping Ukraine to build its own, modern defence industry.
Centre for Eastern Studies
The long war: Ukraine and Russia after the failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive
The article presents the failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive from Russian and Ukrainian perspectives as well as prospects for a long war of attrition and the related role of the West.
Centre for Eastern Studies
Ukraine: the world’s biggest minefield
The article focuses on the threat of mines deployed by Russian troops on the Ukrainian territory, the impact of mined farmland on the country’s economy and the necessity of demining with help of international community.
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Arsenal of democracy: integrating Ukraine into the West’s defense industrial base
As Russia settles into a long war of attrition, Ukraine’s defence industry needs help. The article analyses Ukraine’s urgent military needs and proposes joint ventures with Western companies as an interim solution.
Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos
Según el big data Rusia ha conquistado Ucrania: la guerra y la falacia de McNamara
The McNamara fallacy consists of making a decision based on supposedly objective metrics and ignoring all other observations. The paper argues that the attempt to replicate business management and decision-making processes has led throughout history to serious strategic errors. In Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan or now in the Russian invasion of Ukraine that temptation has always been present, trusting in a technological response to a strategic problem. The problem lies in the very nature of war, which means that the search for a strategic response cannot be pursued solely through a rational method.
Vox Ukraine
Russian revanchism must be defeated in Ukraine
In November, President Joe Biden’s administration warned Congress that the US is “out of money and nearly out of time” to send aid and weapons to Ukraine. According to the brief, this, together with the recent warning by Ukraine’s top general, Valery Zaluzhnyi, that “sooner or later we are going to find that we simply don’t have enough people to fight,” has been interpreted by some commentators as a sign of Ukraine’s imminent defeat and the urgent need to negotiate with Russia.
Brookings
For a secure and stable Europe, put Ukraine on a definitive path to NATO
This research paper analyses the complexities for Ukraine's integration into NATO and the related preparation in the run-up to the 2024 Washington summit. It proposes that the United States and its allies should prepare the ground now so that next July they can announce accession talks with Ukraine.
Italian Institute for International Political Studies
Ukraine between NATO and the EU
The paper argues that what Ukraine needs now is a credible roadmap for its gradual economic and military integration into the “political West” (as Putin calls it), whereby continued support and solidarity by its NATO and EU partners would go hand in hand with a balanced long-term vision of its own strategic interests.
Rytų Europos studijų centras (Eastern Europe Studies Centre)
Adaptation and integration of Ukrainian migrants in Lithuania
The report is mainly based on an online survey of Ukrainians who moved to Lithuania after 24 February 2022. It targets different areas of everyday life such as employment, health care, education system services, social adaptation and integration-related problems. The analysis focuses on Ukrainian refugees’ defining demographic situation, employment status, reasoning behind choosing Lithuania, and the main challenges and issues they have faced during their stay. Lithuania’s long-standing support of Ukraine since 2014 has played a significant part for Ukrainians in choosing this country.
Carnegie Europe
Moving beyond resilience in Ukraine’s recovery
This publication claims that for its long-term reconstruction, Ukraine cannot rely solely on the unity and courage of its citizens. Re-creating the country’s security and reforming its institutions will require an open, inclusive national debate about political vulnerabilities and postwar recovery.
MTA Közgazdaság- és Regionális Tudományi Kutatóközpont - Világgazdasági Intézet (Centre for Economic and Regional Studies HAS - Institute of World Economics)
War, sanctions, and foreign direct investment to and from Russia
The author discusses the impact of EU and Western sanctions on the Russian economy, with particular attention paid to their consequences for Russian foreign direct investment (FDI). Ultimately, he concludes that the war in Ukraine adds major uncertainties to FDI to and from Russia and affects it negatively in the short, medium, and long run.
Center for Strategic and International Studies
As urgent needs - related to agriculture and all sectors affected by the war - occupy the attention of Ukraine and its international partners, they should not lose focus on a resource central to Ukraine’s rise as a global agricultural powerhouse: its black soils. The focus of this report has been the safe and expeditious demining of Ukraine’s farmland and increasing farmers’ access to fertilizer.
Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation
Perception of democracy in Ukraine amid war with Russia
According to the paper, in spite of the low level of trust in the political leadership and state institutions, Ukrainians have demonstrated strong civic consciousness and consolidation, which have played a crucial role in repelling the full-scale Russian invasion. Although the Ukrainian public remains susceptible to populism, the scale of volunteer activities, national unity, dedication to freedom and understanding of the dire consequences of unrestricted government are protecting Ukraine’s democracy from authoritarian attempts.
Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation
Democracy at war: what Ukrainian think
While Ukrainian citizens’ resistance has surprised the world, it has not been seen as a miracle by Ukrainians themselves, who since 2014 have been involved in volunteer movements and knew well what aggression means. The paper concludes that analysis of the changes that occurred within Ukrainian society between 2014 and 2022 testifies that Ukrainians are fighting not only for national freedom, but that they reject Russian authoritarianism, and nationalistic revisionism.
Friends of Europe
Business as usual won’t do - Ukraine matters for the credibility of European integration
This article argues for the use of EU and NATO enlargement to strengthen European democracy, reform of the accession process so as to provide greater clarity and the recognition that failure to support Ukraine to victory would represent a near-fatal blow to the credibility of the EU.
Bertelsmann Stiftung
Outlier or not? The Ukrainian economy’s preparedness for EU accession
With EU support and the anchor of the accession process, it is more than feasible that Ukraine will be able to follow the EU - Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) development path of strong catch-up growth driven by foreign direct investment inflows, productivity spillovers, and access to EU financial and technical resources. While this model has its critics, as the report notes, it has delivered impressive rates of economic convergence across large parts of EU-CEE during the past two decades and especially in some of the countries that Ukraine has the best chance of emulating, such as Poland and Romania. Ukraine’s EU integration should be focused on the “twin” green and digital transition.
European Council on Foreign Relations
The article's main statement is that as Ukraine’s brave resistance to Russia’s invasion continues, the devastating cost of the war rises – as does the need for reconstruction. This will be a massive undertaking with significant economic contingencies, requiring careful planning not just from Ukraine but also from its neighbouring countries. This is particularly the case in Moldova, where Ukrainian demand may divert much needed labour, construction materials, and investments from its own economy.
Chatham House - The Royal Institute of International Affairs
To deter China, Taiwan can learn from Ukraine and Israel-Hamas war
The author discusses the lessons that Taiwan may take from Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the ongoing Middle East conflict - pointing to Ukraine's successful and innovative use of cheap drones, war-prepared civilian population and experience regarding information warfare.
Chatham House - The Royal Institute of International Affairs
Russia’s war on Ukraine has strengthened Lukashenka but undermined Belarus
The brief discusses the consequences for Belarus of Russia's war on Ukraine - noting the narrowing of EU policy with regard to Belarus and the relative resilience of the Belarussian economy since the beginning of the war. It argues that Russian political and economic influence in Belarus is unlikely to disappear with the departure of Vladimir Putin and Aliksandr Lukashenka, although young Belarussians continue to offer hope.
Council on Foreign Relations
Russia must be held accountable for alleged criminal aggression in Ukraine: two paths to justice
The authors urge the imperative of prosecuting alleged Russian crimes of aggression in Ukraine, and present two practical options for doing so.
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Alternate reality: how Russian society learned to stop worrying about the war
The paper presents the levels of support within Russian society for “the special operation” in Ukraine and the reasons why public opinion in Russia is consistently supportive of the regime and able to adapt to recent developments.
Friedrich-Ebert Stiftung
Die Verteidigungs-Politik nach der Zeitenwende: der Französische Ansatz
Russia's attack on Ukraine shows the need for longer-term planning horizons. France began this type of planning in the 1960s. The brief notes that despite the new military programme law, it has not yet been possible to adapt this to the faster dynamics of requirements. The need for consistent defence efforts is a consensus in public opinion and in the political parties. Both at national level and in co-operation between Europeans, particularly within the EU, strategic autonomy remains France's goal.
29.11.2023
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Assessing the main needs and challenges of rearming Ukraine’s air force
The article presents the main challenges to the full rearmament of Ukraine. It points out that deliveries of F-16s would help the country reconstitute the basic capabilities of its military aviation and strengthen its deterrence effect after the war.
Hertie School - Jacques Delors Centre
The EU military assistance mission for Ukraine: a peace actor who teaches to fight
The EU military assistance mission in support of Ukraine (EUMAM UA) is designed to support Ukraine’s army in its fight against Russia’s invasion. This brief argues that EUMAM UA requires a longer mandate for Ukrainian troops to overcome real-life constraints. Consequently, the training mission’s cumulative impact can turn EUMAM UA into one of the key components of Ukraine’s battlefield successes.
RAND Europe
Revisiting RAND's Russia wargames after the invasion of Ukraine
This report looks into the reasons for the similarities and differences between how Russian forces fared in Baltic wargames and the relatively poor real-world performance of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine. It finds that in Ukraine, Russian forces failed to follow their planning principles, were unprepared for a numerically substantial foe and were surprised by the resilience of the Ukrainian armed forces.
Friends of Europe
No quick end to the war in Ukraine: so how do we get ready for the long haul?
This brief examines the development of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, recognises that Moscow may feel confident in the face of the coming winter and suggests the steps that must be taken by the West in order to ensure Ukrainian victory.
European Council on Foreign Relations
Striking absence: Europe’s missile gap and how to close it
The opening salvo of Russia’s war on Ukraine on 24 February 2022 comprised over 160 missiles. Since then, thousands more have struck military and civilian targets across the country. Russia’s reliance on long-range cruise and ballistic missiles has had Europeans rushing to boost their air and missile defences. But they have not sufficiently addressed the gaping hole in their own deep-strike capabilities. This paper focuses on what would it mean in the context of possible conflict between Russia and NATO.
Chatham House - The Royal Institute of International Affairs
The authors discuss the historical development of Ukrainian democracy, the effect of war on the country's classification as a democracy and democracy's future in Ukraine.
Leuven Centre for Global Governance Studies
Ukrainian, forcibly displaced and stateless: challenges from a human rights law perspective
The paper explores the different challenges faced by stateless persons fleeing from the hostilities in Ukraine by mapping out the protection gaps in the legal framework of Ukraine and relevant EU states.
Clingendael Institute
Beschermingsopdracht Oekraïense ontheemden in Nederland
Recent survey studies show that only a small proportion of displaced people still have no hope of returning to Ukraine at all. The brief claims that return remains the ultimate wish for most. However, the vast majority have no concrete plans to return in the very short term. In the meantime, most displaced persons will remain in the receiving country where they are already located. Only 2% of them plan to continue travelling; 12% don't know yet.
Center for Eastern Studies
Neighbourly feuds: the problem with Ukrainian grain on the Central European markets
The report takes stock of the recent developments regarding Ukrainian agricultural exports and of the solutions adopted by some neighbouring countries to resolve the issue of the surge in imports.
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Dual-use items: EU seeks to limit circumvention of the sanctions on Russia
The article looks at the scope and impact of EU sanctions in the area of dual-use products and offers recommendations to counteract Russian circumvention practices.
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Ukraine faces long-term environmental consequences of Russian aggression
As a result of the war, environmental degradation is occurring in Ukraine. The article examines the damage to date, long term-effects of the environmental threats and possible ways of tackling them.
Centre for European Reform
Ukraine fatigue: bad for Ukraine, bad for the West
The author discusses Ukraine's successes and failures in the war so far, along with the steps necessary for the West to continue supporting Ukraine and its increasingly large needs.
European Council on Foreign Relations
Living in an à la carte world: what European policymakers should learn from global public opinion
After Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, Europeans and Americans tried to mobilise the world in defence of the post-cold war liberal order. According to a new poll, much of the rest of the world wants the war in Ukraine to stop as soon as possible, even if it means Kyiv losing territory. And very few people – even in Europe – would take Washington’s side if a war erupted between the US and China over Taiwan.
Forum for research on Eastern Europe and Emerging Economies (FREE Network)
Ukraine and NATO – evidence from public opinion surveys
This paper refers to the most recent survey about attitudes of Ukrainians to NATO membership, which shows that 89 percent would support joining the military alliance – the highest level of support in the country’s history. It offers some perspectives on how public opinion in Ukraine has changed, including regional differences in attitudes, and what have been the crucial turning points. It also shows how every round of Russian aggression eventually has led to public opinion alignment. These changes not only concern a NATO membership but reflect a deeper transformation of societal values and a consolidation of the Ukrainian national identity, strengthening the grounds for a more democratic society.
RAND Europe
Logistics and sustainment in the Russian armed forces
The author used sources published between 2015 and 2022 to reflect information that is relevant to the state of the Russian military following the latest military reforms of the past decade. He discusses in detail the state and capabilities of the Russian armed forces.
8.11.2023
Atlantic Council
Arming Ukraine is cheap compared to the far higher price of Russian victory
In this article, the author considers how much longer the West can afford to continue supporting Ukraine. His conclusion is that while Ukraine has so far received hundreds of billions of dollars in military aid, this figure pales into relative insignificance when compared to the far higher price the international community will have to pay in the event of a Russian victory.
Hertie School - Jacques Delors Centre
The EU military assistance mission for Ukraine: a peace actor who teaches to fight
The EU Military Assistance Mission in support of Ukraine (EUMAM UA) is designed to support Ukraine’s army in its fight against Russia’s invasion. A two-year mission envisions training 40,000 Ukrainian soldiers on Western weapons systems and aims to maximise the utility of military assistance provided to Ukraine by its international partners. In this policy brief, the author argues that EUMAM UA requires a longer mandate for Ukrainian troops to overcome real-life constraints in order to create a decisive advantage that wins the war.
European Council on Foreign Relations
Sustain and prosper: how Europeans can support Ukraine
The main argument of the article is that the EU and member states urgently need to ramp up and accelerate their military assistance for the long war and make stronger commitments to Ukraine’s long-term security. In addition, they should develop bilateral security arrangements with Ukraine and work towards bringing the country into NATO once the war is over. Ukraine’s EU accession is, however, considered to ultimately be more transformative for the country. The EU therefore needs to ensure it is truly fit for enlargement to up to 36 states and take concrete steps towards making Ukraine a member state.
Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation / Prague Civil Society Centre
EU defense cooperation with Ukraine
The provision of artillery, launch rocket systems, and air defense inter alia from EU countries played a key role in the fact that Ukraine was able to restore losses in equipment after the first months of a full-scale invasion. Currently, deterring the attacks of Russian manpower and preparations for a counteroffensive by the defense forces of Ukraine are underway. The paper suggests that as it is not expected that Russia will stop challenging the security of Ukraine, the military aid of the EU countries should move from responding to critical needs to systematic work on mutual strengthening defense capabilities.
European Council on Foreign Relations
The art of defence: why the West should help Ukraine grow its military industry
The author claims that in order to arm Ukraine for a long war, Europe and the United States should support the development of the country’s military industry to reduce its reliance on Western weapons.
RAND Europe
RAND researchers used an evidence-based approach to try to understand whether official Ukrainian influence campaigns related to the current war have been more persuasive than Russian ones, and, if so, why. They find that the success of both sides' messaging depends on the target audience in question, that Ukraine and Russia have different approaches in their respective campaigns and that both sides struggle to overcome prior beliefs.
Rahvusvaheline Kaitseuuringute Keskus (International Centre for Defence and Security)
In a state of denial: the air war in Ukraine
Ukraine’s ability to repel one of the world’s leading military powers has surprised the world. In the air domain, the skies over Ukraine have remained contested despite Russia’s technological and numerical advantages. This brief describes Ukraine’s defensive (air denial) and offensive air doctrines and considers the potential impact of introducing Western fighter aircraft to the battlefields in Ukraine.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies
Russia’s war in Ukraine: ballistic and cruise trajectories
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has seen the use of ballistic and cruise missiles as well as direct attack munitions by both participants. The use of guided weaponry in a contested environment has revealed the advantages and limitations of some types of systems. The paper surveys the ways in which guided weapons have been used in the conflict and explores some of the lessons that Russia and Ukraine will be able to draw on how to effectively employ and defend against these systems.
Centre for Eastern Studies
Caught in the jaws of the ‘russkiy mir’: Ukraine’s occupied regions a year after their annexation
The authors focus on the situation of the occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts which have been unlawfully annexed by Russia and are still a combat zone. They examine both Moscow and Kyiv’s attitudes towards these territories, the economic situation of the region as well as its prospects for liberation by the Ukrainian army.
Clingendael Institute
Beschermingsopdracht Oekraïense ontheemden in Nederland
According to the article, the number of Ukrainian displaced persons in the EU – and in the Netherlands in particular – is still slowly but steadily increasing. In all likelihood, the war between Russia and Ukraine will continue at least into the next year and possibly even longer. The intensity of the conflict has increased in recent months due to the Ukrainian counter-offensive and ongoing rocket attacks, and the humanitarian situation in several parts of Ukraine is still critical. In recent surveys among Ukrainian displaced persons in the EU, the focus of the questions is increasingly on return intentions. Less attention is paid to transit intentions and motivations.
Migration Policy Institute
This brief examines how private hosting initiatives for displaced Ukrainians have been implemented in a range of European countries. It situates these programs within the broader evolution of private welcoming and sponsorship initiatives in Europe and identifies key successes and limitations. The brief also offers recommendations that could help civil society, governments, and the EU further develop hosting initiatives and refine refugee resettlement and community sponsorship programs.
Центр Разумкова (Razumkov Center)
Economic reasons of the return
Ukraine faces a difficult task of post-war recovery and strengthening of its human capital. The war destroyed thousands of production facilities and millions of jobs. Moreover, competitiveness will require not just rebuilding old production facilities, standards and technologies, but also training of new quality workers who will be able to work effectively in new information and technological environments. The report advocates that cooperation with EU countries is particularly important in the context of the return of Ukrainians. The more people return, the faster the Ukrainian economy will grow, contributing to security in Europe and reducing the costs of migration policy. Thus, part of the support resources could be directed to the retraining of Ukrainians and their return to their homeland.
Centre for Eastern Studies
The West needs to re-examine the Russian oil sanctions
The article examines the Russian budget revenues from oil exports which have soared in the second half of 2023. This suggests that the price cap has been largely ineffective, which requires the current Western sanctions mechanisms to be reviewed.
Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation
The authors provide an analysis of some dimensions of the EU restrictions concentrating on specific sectors, which are considered emblematic and illustrative in terms of the sanctions’ efficiency and loopholes. Specifically, they look at the critical sectors of EU sanctions application, namely, Russian oil and gas industry, manufacturing industries, import of technologies, and the banking sector.
Център за изследване на демокрацията (Center for the Study of Democracy)
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has revealed Europe’s energy and climate security vulnerabilities. Despite several rounds of EU sanctions against Russia, Gazprom remains a crucial gas supplier in Southeast Europe. The brief notes that Bulgaria continues to import Russian pipeline gas from TurkStream and indirectly from Greek gas companies with long-term supply agreements with the Russian firm. Moreover, it suggests that resolving energy and climate security requires systematic and clear short-term and long-term measures that would put Bulgaria on a consistent pathway to strategic decoupling from Russia and carbon neutrality.
Rytų Europos studijų centras (Eastern Europe Studies Centre)
The report examines energy dependence issues as a result of the war, arguing that 2022 was a critical year of energy changes for Europe following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The war also affected the countries of the Eastern Partnership, including Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, in different ways. In 2022, Ukraine completely separated itself from Russia in terms of energy. The shift away from Russia had an effect of a shock rather than a well-planned, smooth transition. Nuclear energy is one of the most important types of energy for Ukraine’s energy sector, but the country had been heavily dependent on Russian nuclear fuel. After the war broke out, Ukraine fully switched to the import of Western fuel, and is currently planning to launch a full cycle of its production domestically.
European Policy Centre
This paper provides an update regarding the European Commission's decision of September not to extend its temporary import bans on Ukrainian wheat, maize, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds in five EU neighbouring countries – Poland, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, and Bulgaria. However, three of the five countries (Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia) have demanded an extension of the ban until the end of 2023. Further escalation of this dispute contradicts the common interests of Ukraine, EU neighbours and the EU, and steps are being taken to set up a joint control mechanism.
Österreichische Institut für Internationale Politik (Austrian Institute for International Affairs)
Since February 2022, China has basically maintained its relations with Russia on the same pre-war course towards gradually tightening relations. However, at the same time, Beijing is concerned about the future of economic relations with the EU, strategic stability in Northeast Asia, and has therefore chosen not to make substantive deliveries of heavy weapons and ammunition to Russia. The author thinks that Austria and the EU should recognize China’s efforts to retain good relations with both Russia and the EU, should seek to reinforce Beijing’s decision to stick with this approach, and should take China into account in their deliberations about ways towards peace and a sustainable post-war security order.
Institut für Europäische Politik
This editorial highlights questions and challenges for the EU, which have been raised due to the new geopolitical reality since the war.
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Ukraine’s accession poses a unique conundrum for the EU
Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has changed the EU’s calculus about the costs and benefits of admitting new states. The article argues that securing Ukraine’s place in Europe is now a top priority and it presents all related challenges in the area of security, economy and democracy.
Friends of Europe
Between two stools: the EU's foreign policy
The author compares favourably the EU's largely united and swift response to Russia's war against Ukraine with its mixed messaging following the outbreak of a renewed Middle East conflict. However, he adds that with a Trump presidency post-2024 an increasingly likely possibility, Brussels needs to prepare for the eventuality of having to provide most of the political leadership and the military as well as financial support to Ukraine.
Istituto per gli Studi di Politica Internazionale
EU-MENA relations since the Ukraine war
According to the article, the war in Ukraine has altered the EU’s relations with countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, while intensifying some of the previously existing trends. On the one hand, securing energy supplies and controlling migratory flows have become the guiding objectives of the EU’s engagement with the states of the Middle East and the Maghreb. On the other hand, democratic reform and good governance have almost disappeared from the European agenda towards its southern neighbourhood.
Chatham House - The Royal Institute of International Affairs
Ukraine remains top of NATO’s growing list of priorities
The author provides an expert comment on NATO leaders' regular autumn session and discusses what is likely to be on the agenda - including tension over the Middle East conflict's impact on material support for Ukraine, arms production and the threat of war in the Balkans between Kosovo and Serbia.
Forum For Research On Eastern Europe And Emerging Economies (Free Network)
Ukraine and NATO – Evidence from public opinion surveys
This paper argues that the public opinion in Ukraine, including attitudes towards NATO membership, has been drastically affected by the Russian aggression in 2014, and even more so by the ongoing war. As survey results show, each subsequent round of Russian aggression on Ukraine has only increased the share of NATO membership supporters and decreased the number of respondents indecisive on whether Ukraine should join NATO.
European Council on Foreign Relations
Why Americans will eventually sour on the war on Ukraine (but not soon)
本文的結論是，烏克蘭戰爭情況嚴峻。烏克蘭夏季攻勢並未達到預期效果，戰爭似乎演變成一場曠日持久的消耗戰。羅伯特·菲佐領導的親俄政黨在斯洛伐克議會選舉中獲勝，其承諾「絕不向烏克蘭提供一發子彈」。美國國會的共和黨人阻撓了拜登政府為烏克蘭爭取更多軍事援助的努力。西方武器生產難以跟上俄羅斯全面動員的戰爭經濟。這一系列壞消息引發了人們的猜測，認為美國對烏克蘭的支持將會減弱。作者認為支持確實會減弱，但這個過程將比媒體報道所預想的要漫長得多。
蘭德歐洲
建構美國應對俄羅斯使用非戰略核武威脅的策略：基於博弈論的邊緣政策分析
作者運用博弈論，分析了俄羅斯對烏克蘭戰爭中可能存在的、能夠改變決策和結果的潛在槓桿，並據此考察了俄羅斯的核理論和能力、相關論述以及與使用非戰略核武器相關的政策。他們建議美國應明確自身在戰爭中的高風險，向俄羅斯傳達一旦衝突爆發將付出不對稱的更高代價，制定避免局勢升級的適度應對措施，並說服俄羅斯「退讓」比「升級」更為可取。
卡內基國際和平基金會
俄羅斯政府公佈了2024年預算提案，其中，該國計劃在現代歷史上首次將國內生產總值的6%用於軍事開支。文章指出，對烏克蘭的戰爭不僅是克里姆林宮的首要任務，如今已成為俄羅斯經濟成長的主要動力。
埃格蒙特 – 皇家國際關係研究所
本文深入探討了普丁政權的韌性。 2023年夏季，一系列引人注目的事件發生，葉夫根尼·普里戈任等人扮演了重要角色。評論家和觀察家經常指出克里姆林宮領導層內部的裂痕，並且往往將每一次事態發展都視為轉折點。
Rahvusvaheline Kaitseuuringute Keskus（國際國防與安全中心）
The war in Ukraine is yet to exhibit a conclusive imbalance of forces and means. What we are witnessing today is the result of a cluster of Russian intelligence failures, the paper argues. The annexation of Crimea was an example of a successful deployment of clandestine means at the height of their strategic influence. Eight years and two Minsk agreements later, Moscow had not achieved the desired results and decided to extend the puppet network into Kyiv’s central government. However, the one common denominator between the various covert strategic assets on which the Kremlin relied was that their expiration date had passed. According to this paper, this might explain the complete strategic blunder that was the 2022 invasion.
Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies
Russia’s September 2023 elections: a dress rehearsal for Vladimir Putin
On 8–10 September 2023, Russia conducted a three-day “single voting day” for 41 regional elections and numerous local electoral contests, including in the occupied Ukrainian territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. These elections served as a testing ground for the upcoming presidential elections scheduled for March 2024. The introduction of electronic voting has further reduced transparency for election observers and has made electoral fraud cheaper. Given the escalating repression within the Russian political regime, the paper notes that European policymakers should prioritize efforts to assist in collecting evidence of electoral irregularities, supporting independent media outlets and amplifying the voices of impartial observers.
Chatham House - The Royal Institute of International Affairs
The author discusses the impact of Donald Tusk's victory in Poland's October general election on the country's future relationship with neighboring Ukraine and argues that Poland's new government should boost domestic production, revitalize relations with Ukraine and Western partners, work with European partners on procurement and build itself as a country with a modern army and strong and trusted alliances.
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik
Turkey's policy in the Black Sea region is the result not only of a complex relationship with Russia, but also of a difficult relationship with the West. An important feature of the Black Sea region was and is Turkey's and Russia's shared vision of a regional order, that excludes external actors. This can be seen in the way Turkey interpreted the Montreux Treaty after the outbreak of war in Ukraine and how the Black Sea Grains Initiative came about.
Institut pro evropskou politiku EUROPEUM (EUROPEUM Institute for European Policy)
2024 and beyond: how to future-proof the transatlantic alliance
In their analysis, researchers delve into the most recent obstacles confronting transatlantic security, particularly with the backdrop of Russia's war against Ukraine. They emphasize the imperative of addressing geopolitical challenges while simultaneously striving for strategic independence in economic and energy matters, all the while preserving the common democratic principles that unite these allies. The paper also anticipates upcoming hurdles in 2024, including a significant election year and the necessity for the transatlantic relationship to fortify its determination for the future.
Istituto per gli Studi di Politica Internazionale
The war in Ukraine and the global dimension of China-MENA relations
According to this article, the war in Ukraine has not changed the path of China-MENA relations. Instead, it has fast-paced them. A year and a half into the war, Beijing and the Middle East look more integrated than ever before: Iran’s oil exports to China surpassed pre-Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action (JCPOA) levels, while Xi Jinping was welcomed with all honors in Saudi Arabia in December 2022 in what turned into a grand celebration of Sino-Arab relations. Concurrently, 2023 has been the year in which the Chinese-led multilateral organizations and fora – the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the BRICS – made their way into the fabric of Middle Eastern politics with unprecedented depth and scope.
11.10.2023
Council on Foreign Relations
The fate of justice in Russia-Ukraine peace talks
While the final chapter of the Russia-Ukraine war has yet to be written, the prospects of any negotiations to achieve a just and lasting peace remain distant. But as the brief notes it is not too soon to consider how accountability, particularly criminal accountability, would fare if any such talks were held between Russia and Ukraine.
United States Institute for Peace
Ukraine: the next 10 months can shape hopes for peace
The article presents three factors critical to Ukraine’s defense and Europe’s security that could open a path toward a just and lasting peace or could leave the region facing indefinite warfare and threat.
Razumkov Centre (Центр Разумкова)
War of attrition: comparing capabilities
This report compares Russia’s and Ukraine’s combat capabilities as of July 2023. Given reservations about the completeness and reliability of openly available information and the dynamism and unpredictability of events on the front line, it is clear that the balance of power can change quite quickly. At the same time, there are currently good reasons to believe that the parties are very likely to maintain a relative parity of combat capabilities, suggesting the continuation of the war of attrition with uncertain outcomes.
Fondation Robert Schuman
Choix difficile : dialoguer ou non
This article addresses the issue of discussions between Ukraine and Russia. The recent NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, confirmed what was already known: an agreement in principle, but not with immediate effect, on the question of Ukraine's membership in NATO and to the EU and, in the meantime, new promises to support Kiev "as much as necessary" and "as long as it takes" during and after the war.
RAND Europe
Escalation in the war in Ukraine: lessons learned and risks for the future
This research provides an analysis of risks of escalation in Russia's war on Ukraine, including what can be learned from the conflict to date and what escalation risks may be most acute going forward. It then offers a series of implications stemming from this analysis for US and NATO policymakers and future conflicts.
Council on Foreign Relations
How much aid has the U.S. sent Ukraine? Here are six charts
Six graphics presented in this article illustrate the extraordinary level of support the United States has provided Ukraine in its war against Russian invaders.
RAND Europe
The authors present a case study based on a machine learning-based analysis of real-world data about the conflict in eastern Ukraine prior to Russia's 2022 invasion. They find that machine learning has great potential to enable military decision-making at the operational level of war but only when paired with human analysts who possess detailed understanding of the context behind a given problem. The report recommends that the US army should build diverse machine learning teams to unlock its full potential and provide personnel at all echelons of command with frequent exposure to machine learning to build familiarity.
Clingendael Institute
Work in progress: Ukraine’s state-civil partnership to reform the security sector
This report analyses the changing role of Ukrainian civil society by investigating seven examples of key reforms of the security sector and puts forward recommendations for Ukraine’s international partners regarding their cooperation with Ukrainian civil society organisations.
SIEPS - Svenska institutet för europapolitiska studier (Swedish Institute for European Policy Studies)
When temporary protection ends: longer-term solutions for refugees from Ukraine
The temporary protection regime under which nearly six million refugees from the war in Ukraine are legally living in the EU is set to expire in spring 2025. This paper considers the options available to the EU and national governments beyond that point, and the advantages and drawbacks of each.
Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies
Since the beginning of the Russian aggression, the EU has significantly increased its support to Ukraine, having mobilized macro-financial assistance, grant budget support, urgent assistance, direct non-budget aid responding to crisis, and humanitarian aid for the promotion of general economic, social and financial stability of Ukraine. Given that Ukraine is a candidate for EU accession, this article claims that this assistance should be considered not only as the means of operative support, but as the investment, pushing the structural changes needed.
Rand Europe
Looking beyond the war: planning for Ukraine's reconstruction
The authors note that although the outcome of Russia's war on Ukraine is unknown, the need for post-war extensive reconstruction of Ukraine is certain. They argue that a restored and vibrant Ukraine will strengthen the Western alliance economically and strategically.
Vox Ukraine
Economic growth for post-war Ukraine
This analysis suggests that Ukraine will grow fast after the war. However, there is large variation in the potential speed, and it is important to have realistic expectations about economic growth. Foreign aid to rebuild capital can help Ukraine grow faster but the main engine of growth is elsewhere. Return of refugees, high domestic investment rates, intensive technological transfer, or reduced corruption will determine the long-run growth.
Centre for Eastern Studies
Reactions to the EU’s lifting of restrictions on grain imports from Ukraine
In September, the European Commission decided not to extend the restrictions on some agricultural imports from Ukraine, while a few EU states introduced similar bans. The article examines the region’s reactions to this development and presents Kyiv’s prospects in this regard.
The German Marshall Fund of the United States/ Better Regulation Delivery Office (BRDO) /Alliance for Securing Democracy/ Rise Ukraine
From the reorganization of government ministries and agencies to the creation of powerful new transparency tools, even as it fights an existential war against a larger military force, Ukraine has been rapidly channeling its governing capacities into plans for a transparent and accountable recovery and reconstruction process. The report suggests that this momentum in Kyiv should enable Ukraine to take the lead in developing and carrying out international plans for a modern Marshall plan to rebuild the country.
Institute of Analytics and Advocacy / The German Marshall Fund of the United States/ Alliance for Securing Democracy/ Rise Ukraine
Civil society in Ukraine’s restoration
Following Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, Ukrainian civil society mobilized like never before. This paper presents a survey of Ukrainian civil society organisations focused on recovery and reconstruction.
SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe
Why did Russian economy not collapse under sanctions: pre-war evidence
This policy brief presents two event studies based on the pre-war data that foreshadows the remarkable way in which Russian economy was able to withstand the pressure from the unprecedented package of international sanctions.
Institut de relations internationales et stratégiques
The impact of the war in Ukraine on the European defence market
This article assesses the main trends characterising the European defence market since the beginning of the war in Ukraine.
Chatham House - The Royal Institute of International Affairs
The consequences of Russia’s war on Ukraine for climate action, food supply and energy security
The paper assesses the impact of Russia's war on Ukraine on vulnerability to climate change, global food security and energy provision and considers what the war means for the prospects for action on climate change both in Ukraine and globally.
Vox Ukraine
Parallel import “Technologies”: how the EU sells “prohibited” goods to Russia
This article examines the commodity structure of EU exports to Central Asian countries, using official statistics. It looks into what contributed to the growth in trade over the last year. It identifies gaps in economic sanctions that enable the supply of high-tech products to Russia.
European Institute of the Mediterranean
The Ukraine war and European energy dependence and reconfiguration of energy relations
Russia’s war against Ukraine has been rapidly and profoundly changing the European energy system and having larger, global impacts with both immediate and lasting consequences. This report notes that the rapid transformation of the European energy system comes with challenges and opportunities for the EU’s southern neighbours in the Mediterranean.
Clingendael Institute
The EU and Ukraine: towards a new security and defence relationship
This policy brief looks at the question of how the EU-Ukraine relationship in security and defence should be shaped. It assesses how the war in Ukraine has impacted the EU and NATO; explores the options for enhancing the EU-Ukrainian security and defence relationship; and examines the EU-NATO cooperation on assisting Ukraine on its way to future membership of both organisations.
Център за изследване на демокрацията (Center for the Study of Democracy) /Global Initiative against Transnational Organised Crime
Borderline: impact of the Ukraine war on migrant smuggling in South Eastern Europe
The current report analyses how refugee flows from Ukraine have affected pre-existing movements of migrants from MENA countries on the Western Balkan route indirectly, exacerbating dynamics and network operations. It also estimates the overall number of irregular migrants smuggled along the Western Balkan route since 2016.
Zentrum für Europäische Integrationsforschung (Center for European Integration Studies)
The evolution of the EU’s perception towards Ukraine
With the war in Ukraine the European security architecture is experiencing turbulence caused by threats to governance, peace and stability, energy, and food security. The paper notes that this upheaval in the spectrum of the actual threats served as a momentum for a radical shift in the EU's perception of its neighbourhood, particularly of Ukraine. The new geopolitical reality raises the need for urgent foreign policy transformation in Brussels to adjust to the recent security challenges.
Centre for Eastern Studies
A difficult but essential partner: how Ukraine sees Germany
The analysis highlights the importance Kyiv attaches to its relationship with Berlin. The author notes the recent evolution of Ukraine’s rhetoric on Germany which indicates not a fundamental change in Ukraine’s foreign policy, but rather a swap of the tools it uses to obtain regular financial and military support.
European Centre for Development Policy Management
The Ukraine facility: building on Team Europe and the European Investment Bank”
The EU, its institutions and member states have so far provided about €76 billion to Ukraine and its people. In order to continue to respond to Ukraine’s mounting needs, and with the EU’s budget under stretch, the European Commission has submitted a proposal for an additional financial package of €50 billion for 2024-2027. This paper looks discusses the ‘Ukraine facility’, which is currently under negotiation with the Council and the European Parliament.
Comite d'études des relations franco-allemandes
The paper points out that the return of war to Europe leaves Germany shaken in its bearings, weakened in its prosperity, tested in its confidence in the future. The competitiveness of the German production site is called into question, and the country is exposed to a risk of deindustrialization and economic stagnation. To what extent will the ruling coalition be able to demonstrate its adaptability, like the reforms introduced by Chancellor Schröder in the early 2000s?
European Institute of the Mediterranean
Impact on the southern Mediterranean actors: Mediterranean ramifications of the Ukraine war
The consequences of the war in Ukraine are still not very clear. Even if the war ends tomorrow, there will still be many unknowns about the 2023 world supply of cereals and mineral fertilizers. This article suggests that it is certain that this war will have repercussions on the world economy, which will have an indirect impact on the countries of the MENA region.
European Institute of the Mediterranean
Russian strategy toward the MENA region in the Ukraine war era
This paper examines Moscow’s goals in the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) since its February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, how successful Moscow has been in achieving them, what obstacles it has encountered, and how Moscow’s MENA policies might fare under various scenarios regarding how the Ukraine conflict might end (or not end).
European Institute of the Mediterranean
The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Arab and Mediterranean states: impact and reactions
In this paper, the author claims that Russian invasion of Ukraine has thrown Arab and Mediterranean countries into disarray. The impact of the war is keenly felt in all non-oil countries. Oil-producing countries are doing quite well, reaping significant profits from their increased energy exports. All countries are reacting to events in Ukraine according to their “national interest”. Hence, pragmatism and “active neutrality” have been the watchwords: they deplore the Russian invasion but do not align themselves with the “bellicose escalation” of the protagonists and call for a rapid end to this crisis, which poses a serious threat to peace in Europe and its neighbouring areas.
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Ukraine war a financial boon for small-town Russia, but can it last?
Ahead of the presidential elections in Russia in 2024, the author reflects on the loyalty of small and medium-sized towns towards the current regime and asks how the war has impacted views of president Putin’s traditional electoral base.
Institut français des relations internationales
Que pense l’armée russe de sa guerre en Ukraine? Critiques, recommandations, adaptations
According to this paper, the Russian army is very critical about the war in Ukraine. Not only from the first phase of the failed special military operation inspired by the theorization of circumvention, but also from the phase of strategic deterrence which preceded it.
Italian Institute for International Political Studies
Russian relations with the Middle East after Putin’s invasion of Ukraine
According to this article, unlike Russia’s relations with the United States and Europe, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine did not lead to the deep revision of Moscow's ties with the countries of the Middle East. The war rather played the role of a catalyst that accelerated some old processes in Russia’s relations with the region and changed certain accents in its already established priorities.
Italian Institute for International Political Studies
US-MENA relations in the Russia-Ukraine war era
The paper argues that the reaction of America’s MENA partners to the war in Ukraine has taught Washington about the limits of its influence in the MENA region. But it has also taught (or is in the process of teaching) MENA governments that Russia may not be able to replace or even effectively compete with the US as a great power patron in the MENA region.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies
The war in Ukraine unfolds alongside a military build-up in the Asia-Pacific
According to the article, several important dimensions of the Ukraine war are affecting the efforts of Asia-Pacific governments to improve their countries’ military capabilities. Countries of the region are moving towards higher defence spending and are re-examining the sustainability of their armed forces as well as their operational doctrine and equipment inventories.
13.9.2023
Institut français des relations internationales
This article describes how since the beginning of the Russian war on Ukraine, and even before February 2022, the Russian government has conducted intense nuclear rhetoric and actions.
Swedish Institute of International Affairs
Four challenges facing a Ukrainian-Russian truce: two strategic challenges
As the Russo-Ukrainian War continues, the number of proposals for achieving a negotiated rather than a military resolution to the conflict grows. This text concludes a series of four reports outlining various obstacles to a Russian-Ukrainian truce.
Brookings Institution
The return of the enemy: Putin’s war on Ukraine and a cognitive blockage in Western security policy
Eighteen months after Russian invasion of Ukraine, the question of how this war ends appears as open as ever. The paper considers that peace for Ukraine must at some point involve negotiations with Russia, but given the Kremlin’s implacable attitude, the burden of proof for the credibility of its negotiating offers would be extremely high. An armistice based on a freezing of the status quo in the form of continued Russian occupation of Crimea and the Donbas would reward Putin’s aggression and merely pause hostilities.
Rand
The authors offer a broad characterization of Ukrainian approaches to civilian-based resistance during the first four months of the conflict.
Nederlands Instituut voor Internationale Betrekkingen - Clingendael (Netherlands Institute of International Relations)
This policy brief assesses the impact of the war in Ukraine on the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP). It focusses on the implications in strategic terms: is the CSDP still up to the mark or should it be adjusted to the changed environment? Subsequently, the authors zoom in on two specific areas: the impact of the war on EU missions and operations, followed by an analysis of how capability development and the defence industry in the EU are affected.
European Council on Foreign Relations
Star tech enterprise: emerging technologies in Russia’s war on Ukraine
This paper examines the role of drones, cyber warfare, software-defined warfare and AI, and space technologies in the war in Ukraine. It reveals how the conflict has become a testing ground for new military systems. Innovation is happening at high speed.
Cedos
A year of full-scale war in Ukraine: thoughts, feelings, actions
The goal of the study is to capture (in progress, directly while the events were unfolding, rather than in retrospect), describe and generalize the experiences of war in Ukraine as well as trends of changes in these experiences over time.
Istituto affari internazionali
Ukraine’s NATO membership will strengthen Europe’s security
This article examines arguments for and against Ukraine’s NATO membership.
Österreichische Institut für Internationale Politik (Austrian Institute for International Affairs)
Trapped in NATO antechamber, Kyiv eyes ‘military Marshall plan’
As the report comments, strategy is a matter of choice. Turkey’s in extremis blessing of Sweden’s bid to join NATO, two days before the Vilnius summit on 11 July, did not conceal the difficult equation of what status should Ukraine be granted? How could NATO get this war-torn European country out of its never-ending “in between” position, a grey zone and a strategic no man’s land that have left it vulnerable to those who deny it the right to exist?
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (German Institute for International and Security Affairs)
Ensuring Ukraine’s security: from ad hoc support to long-term security guarantees as NATO member
According to this brief, NATO membership is essential for Ukraine’s security, but it is also in the geostrategic and normative interests of the Alliance, even if it is a risky, long-term, and difficult endeavour. It points out that military support for Ukraine is already contributing to the defence of the rules-based order in Europe and thus to European security, stability, and prosperity.
Vox Ukraine
In the context of restoring regions temporarily occupied by Russia during its armed aggression against Ukraine, the issue of social reintegration of the local population often remains overlooked; it is commonly considered an additional political factor rather than a distinct phenomenon. However, as the report notes, this aspect might be the most challenging task in the process of rebuilding temporarily occupied territories.
Vox Ukraine
How the post-war reconstruction will determine the development of regions
For good reasons, locally driven reconstruction is the way to go, suggests the paper. The local population and stakeholders, together with their self-governing bodies, have the best knowledge of the damages and of what they need most urgently to return to some kind of normal life.
GLOBSEC Policy Institute
Scars on their souls: post-traumatic stress disorder and veterans of Ukraine
The report notes that an army does not march on military resources alone; its biggest asset is its people who need the mental capacity to maintain and respond to the worst atrocities of war. The need to support the mental health and well-being of those who have risen to the cause needs equal consideration to enable Ukraine to maintain a fighting force on the front line. Consideration also needs to be given to maintaining the mental capacity of those who will be responsible for rebuilding Ukraine for future generations to come.
Institute of International Relations Prague
A war like no other: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a war on gender order
Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine represents a critical juncture for the role gender plays in European security. The author argues that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is not only gendered in the way other conflicts are, but the war’s essential novelty lies in the fact that it is explicitly fought for the so-called traditional values, against gender and sexual equalities.
Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (German Institute for Economic Research)
Ukrainian refugees: nearly half intend to stay in Germany for the longer term
The authors call for an increase in refugees’ social participation and, in light of the high share of mothers among them, an improvement in childcare options. This would facilitate participation in integration and language courses as well as the path to employment. In addition, it is crucial to quickly decide on the extension of Ukrainian refugees’ right of residence, which is currently limited until March 2024, thus making their legal status more certain and planning possible.
European Policy Centre
EU-Ukraine wartime trade: overcoming difficulties, forging a European path
This paper provides recommendations on how the EU can further intensify efforts to facilitate Ukraine’s trade flows and prevent sudden trade disruptions and restrictions. These include enhancing the strategic alignment and connectivity between Ukraine and the EU; ensuring security guarantees and increased capacity of seaport corridors; avoiding sudden and unjustified disruptions in solidarity lines; and protecting critical port and export infrastructure from Russia’s attacks.
Центр Разумкова (Razumkov Center)
Controversy of waiting for changes
This study takes a detailed look at the results of objective and subjective indicators, in particular from polls by the Razumkov Centre, regarding the development of Ukraine. This points to an improvement of performance of the domestic economy in the first quarter of 2023. The results of such polls cannot impartially represent the socio-economic dynamics. However, they can serve as a "hint" of positive changes and "bottlenecks", which create incentives and barriers for the country development and its immediate prospects.
Centre for Economic Policy Research
Post-war macroeconomic framework for Ukraine
This report proposes a macroeconomic framework for the post-war period that can support a successful recovery. It stresses that sustainable public finances, sound monetary policy, a predictable and fair regulatory framework, and flexible labour markets provide the foundation for the success of human capital development, foreign direct investment, technological leapfrogging, and many other elements of reconstruction.
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Options for securing free trade navigation in the Black Sea
In the context of Russia’s withdrawal from the grain deal and rocket attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure, the article analyses further military threats from Russia as well as Ukraine’s potential responses. It also presents recommendations for the international community to fully unblock and secure the Black Sea trade.
Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich (Centre for Eastern Studies)
Drugi front. Stan i perspektywy gospodarki Ukrainy po półtora roku wojny (The other front. The state of and perspectives for Ukraine’s economy after 1,5 years of the war)
The report comprehensively describes the current macroeconomic situation of Ukraine, including GDP figures, industrial production, inflation, and international aid. The situation in individual economy sectors is also presented as well as short- and long-term perspectives for the Ukrainian economy.
Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich (Centre for Eastern Studies)
Partial success: Russia’s oil sector adapts to sanctions
The article examines the situation of Russia’s oil sector which tries to adjust production in response to the Western embargo and price caps. It also looks at the measures taken by the Russian government to counter the negative dynamic and at the perspectives for the Russian oil industry.
Bruegel
How Ukrainian gas storage can contribute to Europe’s security of supply
Europe is continuing in its so-far successful effort to wean itself off Russian gas supplies. Gas storage facilities are filling at a healthy pace, with all signs pointing to the EU hitting its target for storage to be 90 percent full well before the 1 November deadline. According to the report, Europe could use spare capacity in Ukraine to top up stored gas volumes for the coming winter.
Център за изследване на демокрацията (Center for the Study of Democracy)
Moving forward together: energy and climate security for Ukraine and Europe
This brief provides an overview of the evolution of energy and climate security risks in Ukraine before and after the Russian invasion, based on its Energy and Climate Security Risk Index. It discusses how the Kremlin exploited critical governance gaps in Ukraine and the EU’s energy sector to weaken Ukraine’s capacity for resistance and Europe’s solidarity and unity in the face of war.
Atlantic Council
Transforming Ukraine into a European energy hub
The paper identifies opportunities for the rebuilding of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure for the transatlantic community to consider.
Vox Ukraine
Ecocide: the catastrophic consequences of Kakhovka dam demolition
What consequences does the destruction of Kakhovka dam by Russians has for people, nature and economy? How to quantify these consequences? How to hold Russia responsible for the ecocide? This article provides some ideas.
Brookings Institution
Want Ukraine in the EU? You’ll have to reform the EU, too
The European Council on 16 December 2023 is expected to formally kick off the accession negotiations with Kyiv, following a defined schedule. The paper advances the argument that if enlargement to Ukraine and other current Eastern European candidate and potential candidate countries brings the number of member states to 36, the need for net financial support would end once a member state’s income level reaches 80% of the new EU average level. Assuming the EU budget does not change, the share of financial aid for current member countries would dramatically decline in case of a new wave of enlargement. Such an enlargement would also partly dilute Western European preponderance in the EU.
LUISS School of European Political Economy
The EU must have more financial and political capacities if it wants to make space for Ukraine
This paper argues that Ukraine’s accession to the EU is necessary and inevitable, but it may prove very costly for the current European member states.
The Institute of International & European Affairs
Reflections on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: one year on
In this paper, Pat Cox, former President of the European Parliament, reflects on the implications of Russia war of aggression in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin’s war of choice has brought conflict back to the European continent, and amongst the enormous challenges of achieving a cessation of hostilities, will be the task of establishing a sustainable and just peace. In this regard, the author contends, the EU and Ukrainian interests are aligned and Ukraine’s aspiration to join the EU is a matter of strategic EU significance and should be treated as such.
Bruegel
The Russian war economy: macroeconomic performance
This article looks into the impact on the Russia economy of the package of economic, financial, and diplomatic sanctions imposed the US, the EU and several other G7 economies. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in March 2022 forecasted a real GDP decline of 10% in 2022, while the International Monetary Fund in April 2022 projected a decrease of 8.5%. Even the Bank of Russia in April 2022 expected a real GDP decline of 8-10%. However, the actual figures for 2022 were better – according to the IMF, Russia’s real GDP only declined by 2.1% in 2022.
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Seeking ways to exclude Russian vendors from UN procurement system
The United Nations Secretariat and its other entities are conducting their procurement procedures without excluding suppliers from Russia despite its aggression against Ukraine. The article examines the possibility to remove Russian companies from the UN procurement system and describes international efforts in this regard.
International Centre for Counter-Terrorism - The Hague
The Russian Imperial Movement, the war in Ukraine and the future of Russian state
The Wagner group has connections with Russian far-right groups whose members fight alongside Wagner. One of these groups is the Russian Imperial Movement (RIM). This paper describes RIM and its relations with the Russian State.
Център за изследване на демокрацията (Center for the Study of Democracy)
Cash is king: impact of the Ukraine war on illicit financial flows in south eastern Europe
The current report assesses the major enablers and vulnerabilities of illicit finance in the eight Balkan countries (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia) after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It delves into the primary illicit financial flows sources and channels in the region and identifies emerging trends whilst offering feasible recommendations for improvement.
Institut français des relations internationales
Moldova, a political system under pressure between European aspirations and war in Ukraine
The author comments on how a transformation of Moldova is closely linked to its objective of progress toward the EU and how the war in Ukraine has accelerated advancement in this direction, the Republic of Moldova being granted EU candidate status at the European Council meeting on June 23, 2022.
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Ukraine’s delicate balancing act with China
The article examines the challenging dynamic of Ukraine-China relations, highlighting the cautious pragmatism of both countries and the importance of their economic ties and trading partnership.
14.7.2023
The International Institute for Strategic Studies
How to end a war: some historical lessons for Ukraine
In the light of Russia’s ability to sustain the war at its current level, the article analyses a possible Western countries’ approach to the restoration of full territorial integrity of Ukraine. It offers a historical comparison with the so-called ‘Adenauer option’.
Chatham House - The Royal Institute of International Affairs
How to end Russia’s war on Ukraine: safeguarding Europe’s future, and the dangers of a false peace
This report takes nine commonly espoused ideas for quick fixes or objections to bolstering assistance to Ukraine and weighs them against both current reality and their long-term consequences. The unanimous conclusion of the authors is that the only outcome to the war that can safeguard the future security of Europe is a convincing Ukrainian victory – hence, Western military support to Kyiv should be redoubled before it is too late.
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik
Assistance to Ukraine - military, diplomatic, financial and humanitarian - have settled in, it is now a question of designing the long-term security of the country argue the authors.
RAND Europe
Russian logistics and sustainment failures in the Ukraine conflict
The Russian military's battlefield performance has not lived up to expectations since its invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. The authors examine the issue
Institute of International and European Affairs
Reflections_on_Russia’s_invasion_of_Ukraine: one year on
The author reflects on the implications of the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin’s war of choice has brought conflict back to the European continent, and amongst the enormous challenges of achieving a cessation of hostilities, will be the task of establishing a sustainable and just peace. In this regard, the author contends, the EU and Ukrainian interests are aligned.
Atlantic Council
What NATO’s Vilnius summit means for Ukraine and the Alliance’s future
In this brief, experts decode all the goings-on in Vilnius - and what they mean for Kyiv’s path to NATO membership, the war in Ukraine, Sweden’s forthcoming accession, the Alliance’s growing focus on China, and more.
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Russia isn’t going to run out of missiles
This article gives a brief overview about the missiles with graphics showing the composition of Russian missile attacks on Ukraine.
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Cluster munitions: what are they, and why is the United States sending them to Ukraine?
This article gives an answer to several questions regarding the sending of munitions to Ukraine.
Council on Foreign Relations
How much aid has the U.S. sent Ukraine? Here are six charts
On the basis of graphics, this paper provides data illustrating the extraordinary level of support the United States has provided Ukraine in its war against Russian invaders.
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik
This paper deals with deception and media manipulation that have always been an integral part of war communications. The call for surrender from the President Zelenskyj, which was immediately exposed as a deepfake, is the first attempt at using the new technology in an armed conflict. As a ban on deepfakes is hopeless, the author considers that it is time to explore possible counter-strategies.
Real Instituto Elcano (Elcano Royal Institute)
Una verdadera paz, después de una guerra verdadera
According to the paper, the scenario for peace in this war of attrition is for a democratic transition in Russia. This will only come about when Russia abandons imperial thinking and oppression and becomes a nation-state and a liberal, federal European democracy.
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Envisioning a long-term security arrangement for Ukraine
The paper suggests that Kyiv and the West should reach consensus now on a realistic long-term security arrangement. Codified multiyear commitments to train and equip Ukraine’s military, support for the country’s defense industry, and clear links to its EU accession process will be key.
Vox Ukraine
Zaporizhzhia NPP, or how nuclear blackmail became Russia’s new export item
This brief deals with Russia’s manipulations regarding the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. It describes different versions of Russian propaganda that Ukraine is trying to blow up the Zaporizhzhia NPP. All these versions are somehow related to the current agenda, including the July NATO summit in Vilnius, and the Ukrainian counteroffensive. However, they are unsubstantiated fakes that often contradict each other.
Vox Ukraine
In the midst of ongoing war, intense discussions are already taking place about Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction and foreign assistance needed. This column outlines four critical elements for these discussions, drawing lessons in particular from the experiences of Eastern Europe in the 1990s.
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Post-conflict reconstruction in Ukraine: challenges and opportunities
This report discusses reconstruction projects of Ukraine and notes that reconstruction should be conceived as a long-term process, addressing both material and nonmaterial damage caused by conflict. Moreover, it should be “broadly understood as a complex, holistic and multidimensional process encompassing effort to simultaneously improve military, political, economic, and social conditions”.
Centre for Eastern Studies
Ukraina w obliczu katastrofy demograficznej
The article describes the demographic situation in Ukraine, outlining the pessimistic trends in the development of the Ukrainian population as well as projections of a further demographic decline.
Bruegel
This paper analyses Ukraine’s war economy management and performance, according to information available in June 2023. It includes analysis of macroeconomic management in war conditions and economic performance in 2022 and 2023. Finally, it looks at the progress of Ukraine’s integration into the EU since the European Council decision of 23 June 2023 to grant Ukraine and Moldova EU candidate status.
Bruegel
The oil price cap and embargo on Russia work imperfectly, and defects must be fixed
The brief argues that violations of the G7 price cap on Russian oil are becoming evident, but Western countries still can tighten rules and reduce the cash flows to Russia. It adds that sanctions should be enforced on a ‘strict liability’ basis, meaning commercial participants would be liable for violations. Additional financial institutions in Russia and third countries should be subject to sanctions.
Hellenic Foundation for European Foreign Policy (Ελληνικό Ίδρυμα Ευρωπαϊκής και Εξωτερικής Πολιτικής)
Reflections on the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam from an international law perspective
This brief provides an overview of the various categories of environment-related impacts that resulted from the dam’s destruction. Subsequently, it sheds light on the international legal implications that its destruction entail.
Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos
El enfoque estratégico de la Unión Europea en la guerra de Ucrania
The war in Ukraine is a challenge for the EU that affects its founding values and internal cohesion. According to the author, the EU has been forced to take unprecedented measures, following a strategic approach focused on preventing Russia from achieving its political objectives.
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik
The author argues that the onus is on European NATO states, including the UK, Poland, France, and Germany to find a workable but also credible solution to protect Ukraine now, but also to show that Europeans can and will do more for their own collective security in the long term.
Institut français des relations internationales
L’exode du siècle: une nouvelle vague d'émigration russe
Russia's assault on Ukraine has not only changed the contours of global geopolitics; it also profoundly affected Russian society by inducing scores of independent-minded people to leave the country. The brief argues that this exodus, which considerably undermines the human and social capital of Russia, could become a factor in the revitalisation of the European economy.
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Band-aid politics: how the Kremlin is dealing with the fallout from Prigozhin’s mutiny
The article states that Prigozhin’s mutiny highlighted a crisis of management in Russia’s political system and the huge contradiction within the Russian armed forces. But it looks like the Kremlin is not intending to take any measures in response, apart from dictating how state propaganda should frame the event.
International Crisis Group
Assessing the Wagner group’s aborted run on Moscow: what comes next?
On 24 June, President Vladimir Putin faced his biggest challenge in over two decades at Russia’s helm: a mutiny by a mercenary group fighting alongside Russian forces in Ukraine. The brief asks several questions: what spurred Prigozhin to take such dramatic action; how did Prigozhin morph from Putin’s fixer into his biggest problem; what are the implications for Putin’s grip on power in Russia; how will these events affect Russian external relations and power projection; and how will the aftermath of Wagner’s rebellion affect Ukraine’s counteroffensive.
Brookings Institution
What is the fallout of Russia’s Wagner rebellion?
在瓦格納軍閥葉夫根尼·普里戈任進軍莫斯科失敗後，布魯金斯學會的專家們在這篇簡短的報告中分析了這對俄羅斯和世界其他地區的影響。
歐洲外交關係委員會
中國與烏克蘭：中國就俄羅斯發動的戰爭及其對世界的影響展開辯論
本政策簡報旨在了解中國政治和知識精英如何看待烏克蘭戰爭。作者對來自頂尖大學、智庫和黨政機關的30多位中國思想家和戰略家進行了非正式訪談，並研究了中國外交政策界的文章和辯論，從中總結出四個關鍵經驗教訓。
國際關係與戰略研究所
作者分析了阿爾及利亞在與俄羅斯和歐洲的對外關係中的立場，並著重闡述了阿爾及利亞採取不結盟政策的原因。
波蘭國際事務研究所
透過將白俄羅斯變成事實上的附庸國，俄羅斯獲得了一系列新的混合型、常規型和核型選項，可用於對北約進行可控的升級對抗。作者認為，這對北約的防禦和威懾策略（包括核子層面）以及韌性建設工作構成了挑戰。
2023年6月28日
戰略與國際研究中心
作者認為，雖然這次突破無法阻止俄軍的進攻，但會造成顯著的延誤。俄羅斯的防禦力量得到加強，使烏克蘭的處境更加艱難。洪水也帶來了挑戰，改變了河流的狀況和後勤保障。在赫爾松州發動有效的進攻在未來幾週內都不太可能。
歐盟安全研究所
作者發現，自2014/2015年吞併克里米亞和發動頓巴斯戰爭以來，俄羅斯利用國家支持的非正規武裝團體擴大其海外影響力的戰略日益增強，而俄羅斯的「企業戰士」則體現了商業利益與軍事力量的融合。他認為，鑑於這些僱傭兵武裝力量，特別是瓦格納集團的崛起對區域穩定與安全造成的危險和負面影響，歐洲決策者應對此予以關注。
烏克蘭之聲
各國對烏克蘭的支持力道如何？哪些國家的政府最支持烏克蘭？各國提供哪些類型的支持？本文將闡述迄今為止各國對烏克蘭提供的支持。
全球安全政策研究所
This brief outlines some key takeaways from the active private sector participation in Ukraine’s cyber defences since Russia’s invasion in February 2022. It contains insights from industry experts, government representatives, and researchers on cybersecurity who participated in a closed-door roundtable discussion conducted as part of the GLOBSEC future of cyberspace cooperation initiative: transatlantic chapter.
Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung
Ukrainian prism: foreign policy
This extensive report constitutes a systematic and comprehensive analysis of Ukranian foreign policy in 2022 carried out by the Representation of the Friedrich-Ebert Stiftung in Kiev. Stating that their work is meant to provide hints as to where and how the work for victory over Russia can be strengthened, the authors assess Ukraine’s foreign policy accomplishments and failures.
RAND corporation
Reconstructing Ukraine : creating a freer, more prosperous, and secure future
The authors of this report examine previous post-war and post–natural disaster reform and reconstruction efforts to draw lessons and inform policymakers. They also discuss security arrangements, which will be essential for the success of reconstruction.
Ústav mezinárodních vztahů / Institut pro evropskou politiku EUROPEUM
Gendering Europe’s security and recovery responses to Ukraine
Responses to Russia’s war on Ukraine have been profoundly gendered, effectively side-lining the Women, Peace and Security agenda and other gender norms. This policy paper argues that side-lining gender as a ‘soft’ issue for later cannot be justified because gender dynamics are at the centre of soft and hard security right now. It shows that it is now urgent to centre the gender dimension and Ukrainian women’s voices at all levels of Europe’s engagement with Ukraine.
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
This paper discusses accountability options featuring in the international debate on how to deal with international crimes – particularly war crimes and the crime of aggression – committed by Russians in and against Ukraine. The exploration mainly concerns institutional efforts to ensure individual criminal responsibility under international law, which means that the focus will be on national prosecutions, the International Criminal Court, and a potential ad hoc tribunal.
The German Marshal Fund
Ukraine's anti-corruption front
The paper discusses Ukraine's ongoing battle against oligarchy and corruption, highlighting the progress made in the past decade, and emphasizing the need for domestic and foreign support to combat corruption, safeguard aid, and inspire global freedom. It provides recommendations for key stakeholders, including Ukraine, the EU, the US Congress, and G7 donors, to support Ukrainian anti-corruption efforts.
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies
Public expenditure and tax policy for the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine
In this report the role of foreign aid in the post-war recovery is highlighted and efficient mechanisms for coordination and reconciliation of Ukrainian public expenditure with external donor funding are suggested. Moreover, the authors propose tax reform measures with a focus on personal income taxation, social security contributions and improving tax collections that are targeted at financing Ukraine’s reconstruction needs.
Centre for Eastern Studies
Ukrainian oligarchs and their businesses: their fading importance
The article looks at the decline of the oligarchs in Ukraine. It examines the impact of the war and the economic crisis on their businesses as well as the prospect for oligarchic system in the country.
VOX Ukraine
The article argues that the negative impact of sanctions on Western economies has been overestimated and suggests further restrictive measures should be imposed against Russia.
Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies
From bad to worse: the continuing effects of sanctions on Russia
The economic situation in Russia significantly worsened in the early months of 2023 due to Western sanctions. This paper examines the impacts of Western sanctions on the Russian economy.
Centre for European Reform
Why Russia must pay for the damage it has done to Ukraine – and how to ensure it does
This paper analyses how Western governments have already invested billions of dollars, euros and pounds into military, humanitarian, and financial assistance for Ukraine. It takes the view that before Western governments ask their own taxpayers to stump up again, they should put the responsibility where it belongs: on the Russian state.
The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies
European tank storage and changing geopolitical landscapes
This report assesses the impact of the war in Ukraine on European energy security and decarbonization, with a specific focus on the tank storage sector. It looks at the impacts of the war on market volatility and supply security in the short term; and it provides an overview of the challenges and opportunities arising from the transition on a longer term.
Friends of Europe
After the war: how to keep Europe safe
The study examines how much advanced defence NATO needs for credible deterrence and assurance on its eastern flank, and considers how to bolster Europe’s resilience through a whole-of-society defence effort. It also outlines recommendations for the EU, NATO and the transatlantic community on what is required for the future defence of Europe in light of Russia’s war in Ukraine.
European Centre for Development Policy Management
Mobilising investments for Ukraine reconstruction: strengthening the Team Europe approach
The EU, its member states and financial institutions for development have been at the forefront of the international community efforts in supporting Ukraine’s defence against the Russian aggression, providing humanitarian aid and supporting Ukraine’s recovery and reconstruction efforts. This paper looks at the different ways of mobilising investments for Ukraine and argues for stronger Team Europe efforts in Ukraine aligned with the EU interests, from geostrategic, security, political and economic perspectives.
Istituto Affari Internazionali
The EU and the transformed nuclear context since the war in Ukraine
The author claims that the invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces in February 2022 has entirely transformed the European security landscape, bringing war to the EU’s doorstep. Importantly, the war features a nuclear dimension that manifests itself in consequential ways, including Moscow’s nuclear sabre rattling and its denunciation of the last surviving nuclear arms control treaty. This has unleashed intriguing reactions, like a surprisingly tough resort to sanctions by the EU, or the shrinking of neutrality on the continent.
Istituto Affari Internazionali
How the Russia–Ukraine war could end, and its impact on conventional arms control
The paper is a brief overview of consequences for the EU, and for the role it can play in the resulting security situation.
Center for Strategic & International Studies
Africa’s peace delegation: a new chapter for Africa and the Ukraine war
The article comments on the delegation of African leaders and officials from six countries which arrived in Kyiv to begin separate peace talks on the war in Ukraine with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian president Vladimir Putin. While African countries' nonalignment offers potential as peace brokers, limited leverage hinders progress. The author suggests that achieving a peaceful resolution seems unlikely due to conflicting objectives. Nonetheless, the visit presented an opportunity to tackle Africa's food security concerns through compromises.
Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung
Wstęp Spojrzenie na Wschód z Warszawy i Berlina
This paper deals with the impact of the war in Ukraine on German-Polish relations. Its aim is to better understand the viewpoints and experiences of both sides, and to draw lessons from the past so that a newly formulated European Eastern policy can benefit from diverse approaches and respect divergent perspectives.
Institut Montaigne
Bélarus: un État vassalisé par Moscou, acteur ambigu de la guerre en Ukraine
The author reflects on the role of Belarus as an actor in Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. If President Lukashenko is part of the most pro-Russian movement on the Belarusian political spectrum, society as a whole is very opposed to going to war against Ukraine. Also, he claims that Belarusians believe that only the country's neutrality can guarantee its survival and autonomy. Under the double influence of the reluctance of public opinion and the dilapidation of its army (only 10,000 of the 50,000 members of the army are fit to fight), Belarus has not formally entered the war against Ukraine.
14.6.2023
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy
Lessons learned from a year of war in Ukraine: a Greek reading
This article debates how the Russo-Ukrainian war is a transformative event for the conduct of warfare worldwide and how it can transform the way nation-states prepare for armed conflict in the decades to come. Specifically, it discusses how these states invest in their defence industrial base and international alliances to guarantee plentiful access to war materiel; and how they train their soldiers for combat and prepare civilians and civilian infrastructure for war.
Centre for European Policy Studies
Tsar Nicholas I’s Crimean war and Putin’s in Ukraine – Plus ça change
As the author points out history never repeats itself exactly, but it offers some comparisons and lessons which are analysed in this brief. Thus, with President Volodymyr Zelensky’s May statement that more time is needed before Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive can begin, everyone is implicitly being invited also to pause and reflect on what might or should become the outcome of the war. Ukraine’s declared political objective is to regain all its occupied territories, including Crimea, but the actual outcome will only be revealed first on the field of battle and then in peace negotiation.
The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies
As a response to the Russian invasion, Ukrainian civil and military authorities have been ingenious in making use of the smartphone’s potential to be an advanced sensor with military applications. Drawing on earlier work in international law and other relevant studies, this paper discusses the implications of this development in relation to the rules of international humanitarian law.
Egmont – Royal Institute for International Relations
Ukraine: perception shapes victory and defeat
In this commentary, the author examines the role of perceptions in shaping conflicts and how it is about managing and influencing “how to think” rather than “what to think”. Perception manipulation is a key area of Russian mis/disinformation and hybrid operations, to shape perceptions of what constitutes victory or defeat, the causes of war, sanctions, and so on. In addition, it aims to cause as many cracks as possible in European societies, exploiting the openness of democracies.
Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)
Arms deliveries to Ukraine: crossing the red lines
The article looks at the scale of the military support that the West has been providing to Ukraine arguing that the Ukrainian victory is predicated not just on maintaining this aid, but on significantly increasing it.
Chatham House
Ukraine’s recovery depends on security guarantees
This brief elaborates on the Ukraine recovery Conference on June 21 and 22, which is expected to take a shorter-term approach than last year’s conference, focusing on mobilizing support for public and private investment in reconstruction.
Barcelona Centre for International Affairs
The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the day after the war: a view from southern Europe
The authors provide a Southern European reflection on the war, and its security, economic and social impacts, to complement and add value to the discussions about the responses to the war and, particularly, its aftermath.
Center for Strategic & International Studies
Demining Ukraine: an urgent but under-resourced priority
The author highlights the problems of the indiscriminate bombings, fierce firefights, and traps planted by retreating Russian soldiers who leave behind untold numbers of anti-personnel/vehicle mines, and unexploded items. He further suggests an action plan for a safe Ukrainian recovery.
Centre for European Reform
Ukraine’s progress towards NATO membership: going from Bucharest to Vilnius without moving?
This report analyses the upcoming Vilnius summit where NATO is likely to offer Ukraine a closer relationship than before, but less than full membership. The author considers that would be a mistake and that bringing Ukraine into NATO as soon as possible would be a better way of stablising the region.
Atlantic Council
Russian war report: satellite imagery analysis captures flood threat after dam’s destruction
The Atlantic Council’s digital forensic research lab is keeping a close eye on Russia’s movements across the military, cyber, and information domains. With more than seven years of experience monitoring the situation in Ukraine - as well as Russia’s use of propaganda and disinformation to undermine the US, NATO, and the EU - the Lab’s global team presents the latest installment of the Russian war report.
Carnegie Europe
The resilience and trauma of Ukraine’s civil society
For over a year now, since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Ukrainian society has yet again been defying geopolitics. Ukraine’s heroic resistance against Russia has dealt a blow to those great-power admirers who expected Ukraine to fall in three days. Nevertheless, the author notes that among other challenges will be a shrinking economy and an impoverished population. In overcoming these challenges, the international community’s support for Ukraine in its fight against Russia and its postwar reconstruction will be vital.
Forum for research on Eastern Europe and Emerging Economies (FREE Network)
Choosing Latvia: understanding the decision-making factors of displaced Ukrainians
This policy brief is based on an empirical examination of the early-stage migration of Ukrainian war asylum seekers to Latvia in 2022, following the Russian invasion. It highlights the urgent nature of their displacement and identifies the pivotal role of kinship in Latvia in the decision-making.
Ústav mezinárodních vztahů
Nucené přesuny a deportace ukrajinských dětí: bezpečnostní opatření, nebo válečný zločin?
The Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) published the third report of the expert mission to Ukraine within the framework of the Moscow mechanism. The report focuses on forced transfers and deportations of Ukrainian children to territories under Russian control, or directly to Russia. This paper first presents the so-called Moscow mechanism and then offers a summary of the main factual and legal conclusions of the report.
Nederlands Instituut voor Internationale Betrekkingen - Clingendael (Netherlands Institute of International Relations)
This report sheds light on the diaspora landscape of Ukrainians and Russians in the Netherlands, including through in-depth interviews with people with a Ukrainian or Russian background.
Council on Foreign Relations
How bad is Ukraine’s humanitarian crisis a year later?
Since Russia launched a full-scale military invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, more than eight million people have fled the country, triggering Europe’s largest refugee crisis since WW II. Nearby countries have taken in millions of displaced people, while international organizations have sent tens of billions of dollars in aid. But as the conflict continues in its second year with no end in sight, experts worry that host countries are growing fatigued. The article looks at the current state of the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine.
Migration Policy Institute
This report explores how displaced Ukrainians are faring in European labour markets, including what is known about their early labour market outcomes and the barriers they face when seeking work. It also examines how governments can work together with civil society and employers to help new arrivals find quality jobs and, in doing so, help European societies benefit from their skills.
Vox Ukraine
The Russian invasion and the risks to global financial stability
The invasion of Ukraine has seriously disrupted the global economy, contributing to the largest inflation surge in 40 years and threatening widespread recession. The brief asks what is next for the global financial system.
Chatham House
Ukrainians demand more inclusion in post-war recovery
Ukraine’s government must provide jobs, eradicate corruption, and devolve power to create a convincing vision of post-war prosperity. As the author points out, the challenge is to simultaneously support Ukraine’s immediate needs to maintain resistance and plan for a post-war recovery. It is encouraging that both processes have begun.
German Council on Foreign Relations
Tech sanctions against Russia: turning the West's assumptions into lessons
The author argues that as Russia is preparing to wage a protracted war, the EU must make unity and coordination on tech among its member states and partners its ongoing priority.
Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)
Russia: funding the war eases the consequences of sanctions
The article analyses the current budgetary and economic situation of Russia and the impact of sanctions on various sectors of its industry.
Centre for European Policy Studies
This report explores the evolution of EU policy towards Ukraine, with major turning points occurring in 2004, 2014 and February 2022 when Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine started. The dominant constraining factor in the case of Ukraine was multipolar (or rather bipolar) competition between the EU and Russia over the European political, economic and security order, which has gradually tightened since 2004.
Egmont – Royal Institute for International Relations
This brief examines the implications of the Ukraine war for Europe’s geopolitical position in a changing world order.
Institut de relations internationales et stratégiques
The war in Ukraine and Europe’s geopolitical awakening
The second war in Ukraine showed that war on European territory was once again possible, and that it could be extremely ferocious. This note makes seven observations on the war, including the mediocrity of the Russian forces and the limits of European forces without the support of American forces. It considers that Europe's main defence architecture is the EU itself. This does not mean distancing itself or decoupling from the United States of America, but it does mean that the Union must be a genuine ally and not a “protégé” under curatorship. Finally, the war in Ukraine must lead the European institutions to rethink their relations with China, but also with the "global South".
Bruegel
European public opinion remains supportive of Ukraine
An erosion in public support for Ukraine might have been expected as the cost and economic consequences of the war began to impact EU households through inflation. But the article explains that support for Ukraine has remained strong, suggesting that the public understands fully the wider implications for European security of the outcome of the war. The public sides overwhelmingly with the Ukrainians, who are clearly perceived as the victims of aggression.
Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies
The Ukraine war and its implications for European security
The brief examines the implications of the war for the EU’s (and indeed Europe’s) relations with Russia.
Egmont – Royal Institute for International Relations
With the conclusion of the winter season, the EU has successfully avoided the anticipated gas shortages and blackouts. The unprecedented LNG imports and significant decline in Russian gas imports have altered the EU’s gas import profile, and the potential security risks associated with these “new” gas suppliers have received little attention. This paper examines whether this new natural gas import portfolio is truly advantageous and what alternatives the EU has.
Ústav mezinárodních vztahů
Food security in the context of the war in Ukraine
The Russian war in Ukraine has revealed the fragilities of the global food system. For European countries, this is both a domestic and an international issue. At the domestic level, the shortage of grains from the Black Sea region has contributed to inflation. At the international level, it threatens the stability of several countries in the Southern neighbourhood and offers an opportunity for Russia to strengthen its soft power. This paper looks at the impacts on Czechia and Norway and provides recommendations.
Ústav mezinárodních vztahů
Czech and Norwegian perspectives on resilience in a post-invasion-of-Ukraine context
In response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the calls for enhancing the resilience of European security systems became even more pronounced. This paper unpacks the concept of resilience by showing how it has been operationalised and put into practice by the two key security institutions in Europe – NATO and the EU – and how it has been understood at the national level in the Czech Republic and Norway.
German Marshal Fund
Toward a Marshall Plan for Ukraine
This paper gives ideas and suggestions on Ukraine’s reconstruction, with an eye toward mid- and long-term planning. It identifies five key enablers of reconstruction: private investment, energy transition, Russian assets, transparency and accountability, and donor coordination.
German Marshal Fund
Ukraine needs a “Green Marshall Plan” that empowers cities and civil society
Focused on the enormous task of building back sustainably from the war, the author highlights key aspects of a “green” Marshall Plan for Ukraine that provides financial and technical as well as policy assistance.
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Unpacking the Vatican’s diplomatic failure in reaching a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war
Ever since the start of the Russian invasion, Pope Francis has ardently sought to mediate between the two states, directing his attention primarily towards pressing humanitarian issues, including the facilitation of prisoner exchanges. This article looks at the reasons why the Vatican’s diplomacy to achieve a ceasefire has failed from the very outset and is unlikely to succeed in the future, except in matters pertaining to humanitarian issues related to the war.
School of European Political Economy
Ukraine’s accession to the EU requires a change in Europe itself
This brief analyzes European Commission’s aim to launch Ukraine's accession process to the EU by the end of 2023. This initiative will open a wave of enlargement to other candidate Eastern European countries. The process has huge political, financial, and institutional implications that no one can predict today, and that tomorrow could put pressure on the Union's integrity itself.
Vox Ukraine
How Ukraine can finish the unfinished transition agenda
The author argues that Ukraine's EU accession would trigger a new wave of democratic transition and consolidation not only in Ukraine, but across the region.
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Point of no return? The transformation of the global order after the Russian invasion of Ukraine
The report answers questions about the scope, nature, and significance of the changes in the international system, which were induced by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It explains how the war has brought fundamental changes to NATO and the EU, set out new perspectives on Russia and Ukraine, transformed thinking about Europe’s future security architecture and energy policy and impacted the policies of China and of the Global South.
Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos
The article analyses the potential war outcomes and the current impasse between Washington and Moscow, while the US's strategic priority is in the Indo-Pacific. It argues that Ukraine may win the war, but it will probably lose the peace.
Vox Ukraine
Why Ukraine's triumph is important for Latin America
The article looks at the economic implications of the Ukraine war for Latin America, including commodity prices, trade flows and the impact on the multilateral trade system.
Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung
Беларусcко-Украинский Экспертный Диалог: Будущее Двусторонних Отношений (Belarusian-Ukrainian expert dialogue: the future of bilateral relations)
The author states that Belarus’ complicity in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has not only affected political relations between official Minsk and Kyiv, but also increased conflicts on the level of people and communities.
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
U.S. defence sector faces challenges related to support for Ukraine
This strategic file summarizes military support provided to Ukraine by the US so far, its impact on US own potential, possible consequences for the allies and related challenges such as the necessity to replenish own stocks and to raise production.
United States Institute of Peace
Dislodging Putin’s foothold in the Balkans
This article dives into how, as European partners focus on the war in Ukraine, Russia is taking the opportunity to nibble away at NATO’s borders and to sow discord in countries hoping to some day present a strong case for joining the EU.
15.5.2023
The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies
Pathways to disaster: Russia’s war against Ukraine and the risks of inadvertent nuclear escalation
The risk of inadvertent nuclear escalation due to actions in the conventional domain is a serious, and underrated, feature of the current stand-off between NATO and Russia, following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The authors suggest a series of measures to avoid inadvertent escalation while stressing that caution should be taken with NATO’s nuclear and conventional posture, including the placement of conventional missiles within range of threatening Russia’s nuclear capabilities.
Institut de relations internationales et stratégiques
Guerre en Ukraine: bilans et perspectives
After more than a year of fighting in Ukraine and political negotiations to build alliances or partnerships around each of the two belligerents, the author explains that it remains difficult to pass judgment on daily events. However, he suggests that the dynamics of the architecture of the world to come are already fairly clearly drawn.
Vox Ukraine
Helping Ukraine is not only crucial for peace in Europe, but also for world peace
The author explains why helping Ukraine win against Russia is as existential for Europe and the world as it is for Ukrainians, who are fighting for their own survival and freedom.
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik
Cyber operations in Russia's war against Ukraine: uses, limitations and lessons learned so far
One year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, assumptions about the utility of cyber operations during wartime are analysed critically in this piece.
CEDOS
Nine months of full scale war in Ukraine: thoughts, feelings, actions
The team of researchers presents an exploratory study on the experience of living in Ukraine during the war.
Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)
Wygrać wojnę z Rosją. O kontrstrategii Zachodu wobec Moskwy (To win the war with Russia: about the West’s counterstrategy)
The article proposes a range of political, economic and security actions which the Western countries should undertake or continue in the framework of their counterstrategy towards Russia.
GLOBSEC Policy Institute
Walking on fire: demining in Ukraine
About 30% of Ukraine’s territory (174 000 sq.km) has been exposed to intense combat operations. This area requires survey and clearance from the vast amounts of explosive ordnance left by the invaders. Ukraine is consequently the largest mined territory in the world surpassing such former frontrunners as Afghanistan and Syria. The report provides an overview of the current situation and presents policy and action recommendations.
The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies
What is the potential for European investments in advanced conventional weapons that could incentivise Russia back to the negotiating table? This brief explores the potential of competitive approaches to arms control.
Council on Foreign Relations
Ukraine’s counteroffensive: will it retake Crimea?
Ukraine remains intent on wresting Crimea back from Russia, but doing so would be difficult, and the peninsula could become a bargaining chip in future diplomatic talks. The brief looks at questions such as whether retaking Crimea is a plausible military goal for Ukraine’s armed forces.
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Will Russia control the skies over Ukraine?
The authors analyse the leaked documents from the US Department of Defense that indicate that Ukraine's air defence is critically low on missiles. While immediate Russian air dominance is unlikely, Ukraine's cities and infrastructure remain vulnerable.
United States Institute of Peace
Amid war, Ukraine aims to protect the rights of a brutal foe
This publication comments UN human rights reports and news accounts that illuminate a deepening contrast between the two nations’ adherence to humanitarian conduct amid war, notably in their treatment of prisoners.
Centre for European Policy Studies-Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies
Ukraine’s alarming demographics
The report deals with the losses of human capital through emigration on top of war casualties in Ukraine. According to new data, around 30 to 40 % of children and of prime age women having left the country. Over four million of them have been welcomed by the EU through the activation of the temporary protection directive. The report notes that post-war refugee return will be an obvious priority but notes that how this should be managed and dove-tailed with the end to temporary protection is highly uncertain.
GLOBSEC Policy Institute
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has forced more than 12 million people to flee their homes, with Ukrainians applying for a temporary protection in the EU primarily consisting of women, children, and the elderly. This report seeks to map out policies targeted towards assisting Ukrainian women refugees and explore the different actors and processes involved in organizing and coordinating such programs.
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik
Rebuilding Ukraine: what the international community now needs to consider
The authors provide an overview of likely reconstruction and recovery needs for post-war Ukraine. They argue that the recovery process will only have a chance of achieving lasting success if it is inclusive, flexible and supported jointly by Ukrainians and international partners.
Vox Ukraine
Rebuilding Ukraine’s healthcare sector: proposals for the next 10 years
The authors put forward proposals for rebuilding Ukraine’s healthcare sector, including changes to the financing, delivery and governance arrangements of the existing system.
Vox Ukraine
Ukraine’s agriculture and farmland market: the impact of war
This article looks into the recent trends in Ukraine’s farmland market and the measures the Ukrainian government took to support the agricultural sector during the war.
Bruegel
Sanctions against Russia will worsen its already poor economic prospects
The brief analyses how sanctions imposed on Russia by the USA, the EU and other countries that are against Russia’s war on Ukraine have started damaging its economy and will erode it further in the long term. It notes that although Russia is the world’s ninth-largest economy and a critical supplier of energy and other raw materials, over the medium-term, it will continue to suffer from weak potential growth.
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Economic sanctions against Russia: how effective? How durable?
The policy brief analyses the functioning of sanctions imposed by Western democracies against Russia, the extent of their circumvention and the role of G7 countries in ensuring the effectiveness and durability of the policy.
Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung
As opposed to other states, Georgia chose not to introduce individual sanctions against the Russian Federation for economic reasons. This current study draws on the available statistical data to reveal whether Georgia’s trade with Russian Federation is indeed being utilized as a channel to avoid the international sanctions.
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Insurance as a critical enabler for investing in Ukraine
This analysis emphasizes the need for substantial investment in Ukraine to rebuild its economy following Russia's devastating invasion. The author asserts that private sector participation is crucial but hindered by uncertainty and risk. Policy reforms, public-private partnerships, and early risk assumption by donors can attract private investments.
Vox Ukraine
Towards an acceptable accounting of Ukraine's post-war environmental damages
The Russian war has caused enormous environmental damage to Ukraine. How to estimate this damage in order to calculate the cost of recovery and reparations for the victims? This article discusses methods for damage estimation routinely used by western nations.
Centre for Eastern Studies
The article presents the characteristics of Ukraine’s agri-food exports, the consequences of their increase for Central European states as well as the measures to counteract its negative effects.
European Council on Foreign Relations
Keeping the lights on: the EU’s energy relationships since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
This policy brief aims to identify which of the EU’s energy partners are not only ‘friends in need’ but also which are, or could become, ‘friends indeed’ – countries that are pressing forward with the green transformation by shifting away from the extraction, use, and sale of fossil fuels. The paper finds that Norway and the US are leading in acting as both principal friends in need and friends indeed, being able both to increase fossil fuel supplies in the short term but having already taken steps to develop domestic clean energy, some of which may be exportable.
Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)
Dostawy broni – konieczność dla Ukrainy, wyzwanie dla Zachodu (Arms supply: a necessity for Ukraine, a challenge for the West)
The article argues that the condition for a Ukrainian victory is not so much to maintain, but to significantly increase military support. In an annex, it offers a detailed overview of military equipment supplies by countries and by categories.
European Council on Foreign Relations
Culture clash: Russia, Ukraine, and the fight for the European public
The paper starts with an assessment of the state of European sentiment over a year since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It then examines the difficulties the EU and its member states have experienced in responding to three key dilemmas: how to handle Russian disinformation, Russian culture, and Russian people. It ends with recommendations on how European countries can address these challenges without compromising their values.
Notre Europe - Institut Jacques Delors
Les « valeurs européennes » à l’épreuve de la guerre en Ukraine
Although a majority of Europeans agree that through its action in the face of the war in Ukraine, the EU is defending "European values", this paper notes that confusion persists about what this term "values" actually means and recommends that it should be clarified. This requirement of “political homogeneity” is an essential condition for guaranteeing the Union a lasting capacity to face external geopolitical challenges.
Brussels School of Governance
In every crisis an opportunity? European Union integration in defence and the war on Ukraine
This article analyses the state of EU integration in defence since the war on Ukraine. In particular, the article probes how supranational and intergovernmental institutions have reacted to the war and how domestic preferences have fed into recent EU defence efforts. In doing so, the article provides a preliminary assessment of the state of EU integration in defence since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Vrije Universiteit Brussel - Institute for European Studies
Order: the financing of alliances and Western power
Russia’s war on Ukraine and the rise of China are raising serious questions about order in international politics. If the West is to have a fighting chance at maintaining its military supremacy and upholding global order, it needs to answer some fundamental questions about the US-led alliance system and what is expected of allies. This brief looks at burden-sharing in NATO and the relations between the US and its European counterparts.
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Bez powrotu? Transformacja ładu międzynarodowego po inwazji Rosji na Ukrainę
(No return? Transformation of the international order after Russia's invasion of Ukraine)
The report looks at the scope of the global impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It explains how the war changed NATO and the EU, transformed thinking about the security architecture and the EU energy sector, confirmed Russia's turn away from the West and sealed the changes in China’s and the Global South’s policy.
Fundación de Estudios de Economía Aplicada
La economía española en el primer año de la guerra de Ucrania
This analysis examines the factors contributing to economic stabilization in Spain after the war and the Covid-19 crisis. It considers changes in relative prices, monetary and fiscal stimuli, disruptions in global production, and the impact of the war in Ukraine on commodity costs.
Bruegel
What really influences United Nations voting on Ukraine?
In March 2023, one year on from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the UN General Assembly approved a nonbinding resolution calling for Russia to end hostilities and withdraw its forces. Among its 193 members, 141 voted for the resolution, exceeding the two-thirds threshold needed for it to pass. The brief comments on the remaining 45 which either abstained (32 members, including China, India, Iran and South Africa), or were absent (13). It explains that despite the overwhelming vote in favour, those 52 votes have attracted considerable attention, as 45 out of 52 are among the world’s poorest and least industrialised countries, labelled as the ‘Global South’.
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Ukraine and Russia are both major exporters of foodstuffs and fertilizers. Consequently, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to fears of an impending food crisis, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa. This paper looks back at the spring of 2022 and the reasons why a food crisis seemed imminent. It then examines the mitigating measures taken in the form of EU solidarity lanes and the Black Sea grain initiative. Finally, it also assesses all of this in the light of export and price trends.
Forum for research on Eastern Europe and Emerging Economies (FREE Network)
After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, a broad spectrum of previously publicly available statistics on economic indicators has been removed from the public eye. This reduced transparency affects any analysis of the state of the Russian economy and assessments of the effects of sanctions and is part of a larger disinformation campaign integral to Russia’s war on Ukraine. This brief provides a short overview of the main indicators on economic activity that have been masked in various forms by Russia’s data producing institutions.
Nederlands Instituut voor Internationale Betrekkingen - Clingendael (Netherlands Institute of International Relations)
East of Eden: will Tehran find salvation in ‘looking eastwards’?
The authors examine Iran’s foreign relations, in the context of the Ukraine war, with regard to the transitional state the country has entered into since the eruption of the 2022/2023 protests.
Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos
La guerra en Ucrania y la crisis alimentaria: su impacto en el Sahel
This analysis highlights a direct link between the Ukrainian conflict and the ongoing food crisis in the Sahel region. The Sahel's dependence on agricultural exports from Ukraine and Russia connects the two seemingly distant events.
Barcelona Centre for International Affairs
Global South does not buy western stance on Ukraine
The brief suggests that the conflict in Ukraine, viewed from the United States and Europe, requires a unique response but the global South does not fully back Western reactions to the invasion and questions the credibility of the rules-based international order.
European Council on Foreign Relations
Steppe change: how Russia’s war on Ukraine is reshaping Kazakhstan
This analysis notes that Kazakhstan has consistently distanced itself from Russia’s aggression and diversified its relationships with various countries, while preserving its bilateral relationship with Moscow. Having shown interest in engaging more with Kazakhstan, the EU could help the country to overcome this critical juncture by encouraging and supporting its genuine domestic transformation.
Centre for East European and International Studies (ZOiS) - Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung
Russians in the south Caucasus: political attitudes and the war in Ukraine
This report focuses on the situation of Russians in Armenia and Georgia. Both countries were particularly attractive to those living in the Western part of Russia, as they are geographically proximate and can be entered without a visa. Armenia does not even require an international passport for entry, and regular flights from Russia make the country accessible. Georgia shares a land border with Russia, allowing migrants to bring their vehicles and at least some of their belongings with them. Moreover, Russians can stay in both countries de facto indefinitely.
18.4.2023
Fondation Robert Schuman
The article focuses on the international arrest warrant against Vladimir Putin issued by the International Criminal Court in March, assessing the chances of its implementation and analyzing the importance of the role of the court itself.
Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies
The war in Ukraine and the way forward: short, medium and long-term recommendations for the EPP
On 24 February 2022, conventional interstate conflict returned to Europe after Russia launched an unprovoked war against Ukraine. Since the chances for a sustainable peace deal are currently rather slim, the EU must prepare for a protracted Russo-Ukrainian war characterized by intermittent periods of escalation and de-escalation. This publication presents a set of short, medium, and long-term options to shape an EU action plan.
Vox Ukraine
Ukraine's reconstruction: questions and common grounds
The article offers an overview about ways forward for Ukraine's reconstruction after the war, taking stock of these proposals and highlighting commonalities and differences across them.
Kiel Institute for the World Economy
To Russia with love? The impact of sanction on regime support
This paper states that on the economic side, the sanctions significantly hurt Russia’s foreign trade. However, as supported by event studies and placebo estimations, regime support significantly increases in response to the sanctions. For the average Russian district, sanction exposure increases the vote share gained by President Putin and his party by 13 percent.
International Centre for Defence and Security
Ukraine is not powerless in the Middle East
This commentary suggests that since 2014 – and especially since 2022 – Moscow has worked to create a network of friendly regimes to facilitate sanctions evasion and to displace the West from sensitive regions. However, Ukraine’s diplomatic moves in the Middle East have received the support of its closest partners such as Poland and the United States.
Vox Ukraine
Personal sanctions on Russian oligarchs: purpose and design
What should personal sanctions on Russian oligarchs look like? The authors ask how sanctions could effectively target those responsible for Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
European Institute for Security Studies
Buying weapons together (or not)
The brief explains that after many years of underinvestment in defence, EU member states are rearming, but much criticism has been levelled at the slow pace. Many argue that more European cooperation on defence acquisition and arms procurement would make buying arms faster and cheaper and strengthen the European defence industrial base by consolidating demand.
Foundation for European Progressive Studies
The author argues that a stronger progressive mindset and actions will be needed to turn Ukraine’s recovery into an EU membership success story, instead of fuelling frustration on both sides. The study also looks at the socio-political dimension of Ukraine’s post-war recovery process and argues that it is important to strengthen the ‘progressive’ elements of Ukraine’s ‘imperfect’ model of democracy that make it likely to succeed in recovery and accession to the EU.
Istituto Affari Internazionali
The EU after one year of war: widening, deepening, rebalancing
In order to navigate these difficult times, the paper notes that the EU needs to square the circle between widening, deepening and rebalancing, which would enable it to accomplish internal consolidation as well as addressing the geopolitical risks in its neighbourhood. This requires striking a difficult balance between new forms of flexible integration to accommodate ever-growing national differences on the one hand, and the reinforcement of common policies based on shared rules and institutions on the other.
Atlantic Council
Poland and Ukraine: the emerging alliance that could reshape Europe
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s recent high-profile visit to Poland underlined the deepening cooperation between these two neighbouring countries and the increasingly prominent role their partnership is playing in European politics.
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
China adapts policy in response to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine
The strategic file looks at China’s perception of the Russian aggression and its efforts to adapt its foreign policy by strengthening strategic cooperation with Russia and weakening the international position of the US, the EU and their partners.
Observer Research Foundation
Europe and China: the impact of the Ukraine crisis
French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visited Beijing for a summit with President Xi Jinping of China between 5-7 April. As the author argues, the visit is a part of a noticeable push by Europe to maintain an even keel in their ties with China, which have been roiled by the events in Ukraine, issues relating to human rights in Xinjiang, and the pulls generated by the US-China tensions.
European Council on Foreign Relations
The art of vassalisation: how Russia’s war on Ukraine has transformed transatlantic relations
This paper looks at why US leadership has returned so forcefully to Europe, whether it will outlast the Ukraine war, and what America’s return to Europe means for the future of the transatlantic alliance and the member states of the EU.
Egmont – Royal Institute for International Relations
EU Ukraine strategy should include the Eurasian spine
According to the report, the European Union needs to raise its head above the parapet to scan the geopolitical horizon to deal more effectively with key threats, especially in view of the continued Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. Europe needs to engage along the Eurasian spine and rediscover the art of playing the game of global geopolitics on multiple fronts in an era in which geopolitical changes will not only be persistent, but likely permanent as well.
Clingendael (Netherlands Institute of International Relations)
This analysis provides insights into the Russian aggression against Ukraine, and its threats for the national security of the Kingdom of the Netherlands.
RAND Corporation
Europe: Ukraine's essential ally
While the US is Ukraine's primary military backer, Europe is sharing the war's overall burden. Ukraine's future lies in Europe. This brief comments on how the EU is embracing Ukrainians, notably hosting 8 million refugees and sending generous economic and humanitarian aid. Ukrainian flags fly everywhere in Europe.
Център за изследване на демокрацията (Center for the Study of Democracy)
The future of the Western Balkans in the shadow of the war in Ukraine
This brief presents a concise picture of the long-term socio-economic and democratic challenges that the Western Balkan countries face in a situation of global power competition, malign influence form authoritarian regimes, corruption and state capture, energy poverty and lack of efficient decarbonization policies and investments, brain-drain and aging populations. It also provides an initial list of measures needed to counter these barriers to the region’s development, which could be implemented with the support of the EU and international community, policy-makers and donors.
Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses
Improving global food security: the impact of the Black Sea grain initiative
The article examines the relevance and the perspectives of the Black Sea grain initiative, arguing that its continuation is critical to safeguard the future of global food security.
The Japan Institute of International Affairs
One year after the invasion: China induces Russia to peace talks
Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which began in February 2022, put China in a difficult position. While China needs to maintain friendly relations with Russia, national sovereignty and territorial integrity have been principles that China has insisted on in the past. The paper explains that the possibility of peace talks coming to an agreement is not entirely excluded, but it is certainly unlikely. Above all, the biggest risk is the unreadability of Putin's moves. There is no guarantee that Putin will follow China's arrangement.
European Council on Foreign Relations
The article argues that despite their common goals, the Ukrainian authorities have shown little interest in cooperating with the Belarusian opposition. As an ally to both, the EU can facilitate their understanding and engagement.
Egmont – Royal Institute for International Relations
Strategic priorities for the Russian PMC Wagner: geopolitics, propaganda and mercenary business
The Kremlin has made strategic use of the Wagner group in Ukraine since 2014, mostly in synergy with the Russian Federation Armed Forces, until its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, started pursuing his own stratagems. This aim of this policy brief is to analyse the strategic priorities of the Wagner group and its role in the Russian security ecosystem with a view to enabling governmental and international organisations to develop strategies to effectively counter private military companies (PMCs), such as the Wagner Group.
29.3.2023
Centre for European Policy Studies
One year of war in Ukraine: understanding what has happened and what needs to happen next
As the conflict has now entered its second year, this explainer analyses what has defined the first year and then expands on what the EU needs to concretely do in the second if Ukraine is to have any hope of triumphing over the invaders. This will require vision, courage and boldness from European leaders. The alternative if they fail? A rules-based international order replaced by a ruthless multipolar world defined by competing spheres of influence.
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Nuclear security during armed conflict: lessons from Ukraine
The Russian military’s invasion of Ukraine and attacks on nuclear installations there in 2022 presented extraordinary nuclear safety, security and safeguards challenges for the facilities’ personnel, for the Ukrainian authorities and for the International Atomic Energy Agency. This brief addresses these questions, highlighting gaps in the current nuclear security regime and recommending how those gaps can be filled.
Council on Foreign Relations
Ukraine: conflict at the crossroads of Europe and Russia
The article presents background information about the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It covers various question such as what are Russia’s broad interests in Ukraine or what are the US and EU policies in Ukraine.
Barcelona Centre for International Affairs
The article argues that the best way to contain the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is to support armed resistance against Russian aggression. It asserts that Putin's Russia must face defeat in Ukraine to force a collective examination of conscience. It also warns of the consequences of a Russian victory, including de-Ukrainization and de-Europeanization.
Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses
The corporatisation of Ukraine war: a case of unfolding asymmetry in military power
The author argues that the power of crowdsourcing budgetary support, technology, training, and logistic wherewithal has emerged as an important lesson in the Russian war against Ukraine. This corporatisation of war effort has many consequences and will shape the character and future of this war.
Atlantic Council
The 5×5- conflict in Ukraine’s information environment
This article provides insights on the war being waged through the Ukrainian information environment as well as take away lessons for the United States and its allies for the future.
Vox Ukraine
How and to what extent has the emotional state of young people changed after February 24, 2022?
How and to what extend did last year's events in Ukraine affect the psychological state of the Ukrainian youth? The authors analyze the findings of a survey on the mental health of young Ukrainians.
Cedos (NGO Centre for Society Research)
War and education: how a year of the full-scale invasion influenced Ukrainian schools
How did the war affect access to general secondary education in Ukraine, in particular in areas that were in the zone of active combat or under occupation? The report analyses the situation and offers possible solutions to restore access to secondary education.
Euro-Mediterranean Study Commission
This paper examines how media framing of the Ukrainian and Syrian refugee crises affected public opinion and policymaking in the EU. Despite the disparity in the number of refugees from Ukraine and Syria, positive-centred media coverage of the Ukrainian crisis mobilised citizen and political action in favour of welcoming Ukrainian refugees, the complete opposite of the negative media framing of Syrian refugees in 2015.
Barcelona Centre for International Affairs
La acogida de refugiados ucranianos: más allá de la emergencia
The author reviews the unprecedented exodus of 4.8 million Ukrainian refugees who have found temporary protection in Europe and find that the response is still stuck in emergency mode. Housing and job market access are crucial, and temporary protection is precarious. Old debates about sharing responsibility between member states have resurfaced.
Vox Ukraine
Who will pay the bills for Russia’s destruction of Ukraine?
The authors discuss possible ways to force Russia to pay for the damage it has caused to Ukraine and its economy.
Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)
Kryzys, nie katastrofa. Białoruska gospodarka rok po rosyjskiej agresji na Ukrainę
(A crisis, not a disaster the Belarusian economy one year after the Russia’s aggression on Ukraine)
The article examines the current state of Belarusian economy one year after the outbreak of the war, arguing that the economic stability of the country is closely related to the macroeconomic situation of Russia.
Barcelona Centre for International Affairs
El impacto de la guerra y los dilemas económicos que se avecinan
This paper explores how war caused a major economic slowdown and rapid inflation increase, with ongoing impacts such as sanctions and changes to trade and investment flows. It also dives into how the war creates difficult economic policy decisions in a constrained budget environment.
Külügyi és Külgazdasági Intézet (Institute for Foreign Affairs and Trade)
This paper aims to answer why Japan and South Korea have adopted a different sanctions policy in response to the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war than they did in the aftermath of the 2014 annexation of Crimea. It concludes that it was primarily the deterioration of the regional environment and the related need to meet the United States’ expectations that has led to a stronger commitment by both countries.
Ústav mezinárodních vztahů
Investing in Ukraine: challenges and prospects for European Union and Czech investors
Russia’s aggression against Ukraine makes investors take risks and worry about their future business. European investors in Ukraine face tremendous challenges. The author focuses on the future of EU and Czech investments in Ukraine.
Ústav mezinárodních vztahů
This article aims to answer the questions on how the Russian invasion of Ukraine changed the European views on the dependence on the Russian energy sources and how these changes affected the Czech Republic.
Ústav mezinárodních vztahů
Marshallův plán pro Ukrajinu?: nejen obrovská příležistost, ale také vážná rizika
Post-war recovery of Ukraine will be the biggest reconstruction effort in Europe after the Second World War. The cost is currently estimated at about 350 billion euros. This report presents not only the opportunities but also the risks connected with the post-war recovery of Ukraine.
Taenketanken Europa
Ruslands invasion af Ukraine risikerer at synke Kommissionens grønne fødevareflagskib
The authors argue that the European Commission’s vision for a sustainable food sector is being attacked from all sides following the war in Ukraine and divisions could potentially capsize the entire strategy.
Brussels School of Governance
Shockwaves: how does the war in Ukraine impact the EU’s grand strategy?
This paper illustrates the implications of the conflict for EU grand strategy in terms of shifting priorities, new challenges, emerging debates and critical questions that need addressing. It argues that the EU institutions and member states need to match their grand strategy to the scale of the challenges they face, or risk losing agency on the global stage.
Ústav mezinárodních vztahů
The cybersecurity implications of Russia’s war on Ukraine
This article analyses the dependence on transnational tech companies and vulnerability to cyberattacks. Private companies such as Microsoft and Google have been pivotal in securing technology and fending off attacks. That is why Czech and EU policies need to reconsider the relationship between government and private companies.
Notre Europe - Institut Jacques Delors
L’Europe garde les faveurs de l’opinion face à la guerre en Ukraine
This paper concludes that there is still broad support for the action of the EU, already noticeable a year ago. This is based on analysis of the outcome of several recent surveys, including the Commission's standard Eurobarometer carried out on the ground in January-February 2023.
Center for Strategic & International Affairs
The ICC wants Putin: now what?
The International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants for Putin and Russian Commissioner for children’s rights, Maria Lvova-Belova, for war crimes related to the transfer of Ukrainian children from Russian-occupied parts of eastern Ukraine into Russian territory. This article offers an insight into how the arrest warrant came about, how the case is likely to proceed, and what this means for efforts to hold Russian leaders accountable for their actions in Ukraine.
United States Institute of Peace
How the ICC’s warrant for Putin could impact the Ukraine war
This article analyses the impact of the ICC arrest warrants for Putin and Lvova-Belova on the war in Ukraine, emphasizing the need for continued pursuit of accountability and concluding that even though, domestically, it’s unlikely these actions will have any impact in Russian political sphere, they provide further legitimacy for Ukraine.
The Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey
Has there been a rapprochement between Turkey and the west after the invasion of Ukraine?
According to the author, most probably the world will face an unstable stalemate in this case. Russia seems to have maximalist demands like the recognition of all the annexed territories, while Ukraine, backed by the West, wants to take back most of its occupied land.
Peace Research Institute Oslo
China adjusts limits on partnership with Russia
This article analyses the relations between Moscow and Beijing and looks at the Chinese peace plan for Ukraine.
Friedrich Ebert Stiftung
This report states that Belarus is going through the most turbulent period since its independence because of the war in Ukraine and the Belarusian authorities’ complicity in Russia’s aggression, combined with the country’s still unresolved internal political crisis of 2020. The report analyses the current economic, political, and foreign affairs situation and trends, and outlines the current public opinion of Belarusians.
Ústav mezinárodních vztahů
Russia’s war on Ukraine and China’s next move
This article analyses the dual role of Beijing, which on the one hand maintains economic and diplomatic relations with the EU and the USA, and on the other hand also cooperates with the Russian Federation.
Ústav mezinárodních vztahů
Russia’s war on Ukraine and the food security in the Middle East and North Africa
The brief comments on how the Russian war on Ukraine threatens global food security, especially in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Soon, agricultural and environmental issues will have a more important place in the MENA politics. As such, they should be addressed by EU member states as they may impact on their external trade, their humanitarian policy and possibly their security policy.
Euro-Mediterranean Study Commission
Walking the tightrope: the Ukrainian crisis through the eyes of Africa
This policy brief analyses the effects of Russian economic and political influence in Africa and its response to the Ukrainian crisis, with a particular focus on North Africa. It highlights the economic and political connections that have shaped Africa’s perspective on the Ukrainian crisis.
Ústav mezinárodních vztahů
What impact does the Russian war on Ukraine have on dynamics in Middle East? The author of this study focuses on the effects of the Russian campaign in the region.
Ústav mezinárodních vztahů
Česko-africké vztahy po ruské invazi na Ukrajinu: hledání cesty ze vzájemného odcizení
Russia's invasion of Ukraine revived Cold War-era patterns of geopolitical thinking in the world. They manifested themselves most strongly in the countries of the European Union that were part of the Soviet bloc, including the Czech Republic. This article analysis the Czech-African relations after the Russian war on Ukraine.
European Council on Foreign Relations
Fragile unity: why Europeans are coming together on Ukraine (and what might drive them apart)
This paper documents Europe’s remarkable coming together, explores three major drivers of this unity, and explains how European leaders can position themselves for the challenges ahead.
Barcelona Centre for International Affairs
The dilemma that follows the war
The article discusses two diverging visions in the EU about the strategy for Ukraine: those who prioritize an outright Ukrainian victory and those who consider the Russia factor in Europe's security architecture. It emphasizes the need for the EU to focus on defense spending and international coalition-building for global and European security frameworks.
Friends of Europe
Where to now? Ukraine's war is eclipsing the EU's internal woes
The author looks behind the EU’s admirable solidarity over Ukraine to the deep-seated problems that Europe has yet to resolve. ‘Polycrisis’ and ‘permacrisis’ are neologisms that well describe the challenges assailing Europe.
European Policy Centre
Ukraine’s accession talks need bold action in Kyiv and Brussels
In June 2022, Ukraine became an EU candidate country, bringing Kyiv a step closer to opening accession negotiations. However, as the brief notes, what happens next depends on Ukraine meeting the remaining criteria. The future of European security depends on integrating the Eastern neighbourhood along with the Western Balkans. Thus, a credible and revitalised enlargement process is a geopolitical imperative.
Ústav mezinárodních vztahů
Riziko triumfalismu: ruská agrese a znovuvzkříšení střední Evropy
How did the relations in Europe change since the beginning of the war in Ukraine? This article focuses on the impact of countries’ varying positions towards Ukraine on the political dynamics in Europe.
14.03.2023
Centre for Eastern studies
New Ukraine: a breakthrough at great cost
The article analyses the process of identity transformation of Ukrainians accelerated by the Russian invasion. Ukrainians’ turn towards their native history, culture and language as well as rejection of the belief in Russia’s supremacy comes, however, at a high price, with economic ruin and war trauma.
Terra nova
La paix, c'est la guerre: faut-il négocier maintenant avec Poutine?
This note examines several arguments and asks if it is not time to put an end to the terrible war that is tearing Ukraine apart by starting negotiations with the Russian President as soon as possible. However, the author considers whether this idea, more and more frequently put forward as the war drags on, would really serve the cause of peace.
Atlantic Council
Premature peace with Putin would be disastrous for international security
The international community has been amazed by the resilience of the Ukrainian people and inspired by their determination to defy the Russian colossus. At the same time, as the invasion enters its second year, the brief notes that calls are now mounting for some kind of compromise with the Kremlin that would end the fighting and effectively freeze the conflict.
Notre Europe - Institut Jacques Delors
Quelles garanties de sécurité européennes possibles pour l’Ukraine ?
The article argues that any settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, whether or not it is negotiated with Russia, would have to include security guarantees for Ukraine, so that the country can no longer find itself in the position of vulnerability as previously on 24 February 2022.
Council on Foreign Relations
In the year since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the war has evolved in ways few predicted. The article analyses the possible future developments of the war in Ukraine.
GLOBSEC Policy Institute
Hard work for 2023: supporting Ukraine to win the war against Russia
Western partners have shown their determination to upgrade their military assistance to Ukraine and provide the requested heavy armory more ammunition, and technologically advanced air-defense systems like the Patriot. The brief asks if it will be enough to enable Ukraine to enter a decisive breakthrough leading to a victory in the war and what else is needed to keep the momentum and launch a scaled counter-offensive by the Ukrainian armed forces.
Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung
Together with researchers from 13 European countries, the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung analyses possible scenarios for the future development of the war.
Razumkov Centre
Why the war in Ukraine goes on, despite expert forecasts
The author analyses the predictions made by Western and Ukrainian experts on the duration of the war, highlighting reasons for incorrect predictions made on both sides.
Council on Foreign Relations
Ukraine needs to pursue victory without sacrificing its democratic future
The article focuses on the importance of finding the right balance between striking out against Russian influence and respecting fundamental freedoms, which will test the Ukrainian government for the duration of the war and likely beyond.
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Envisioning a multilayered security blanket for Ukraine
In the absence of any definitive plan for postwar security guarantees for Ukraine, the author suggests a 3-tiered approach that can provide security for Kyiv and discourage Moscow from future aggression. This plan includes providing full NATO membership, interlocking western commitments, and expediting Ukraine's EU membership.
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Ukrainian innovation in a war of attrition
This brief analyses how the Ukrainian military has outperformed a much larger and initially better-equipped Russian military. It makes three main arguments: the war has become a war of attrition characterized by dug-in forces and high casualties; Ukraine’s innovations are bottom up, with a military environment encouraging junior officers to seek innovation; but innovation will not be sufficient to outweigh the material needs of the Ukrainian military.
The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies
This snapshot reviews Ukraine’s call for fighter aircraft and the role of air defence systems in the war.
The German Marshall Fund
One year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, three western illusions have collapsed
The article highlights the fall of the western illusions regarding economic and energy independence; certainty of a short war; and the fact that Russia would become an isolated pariah state. It argues that Europe should rethink its geopolitical strategy, increase the ownership of the war and strengthen its territorial defence capabilities, its economic resilience, and avoid exposing grey geographical areas (like Moldova) to the risk of Russian destabilization.
Open Society Foundations
A year in: turning the tide in Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine
This analysis provides recommendations for policymakers to help Ukraine win the war. These include increasing financial support so that Ukraine’s economy can recover, strengthening political support to hold Russia accountable for its crimes, and laying a solid foundation for post-war reconstruction and accession to the EU.
Atlantic Council
Ukraine’s women are playing a key role in the fight against Russia
This article highlights the prominence of the country’s women. From frontline soldiers to unofficial ambassadors, Ukrainian women are playing a key role in the struggle to defeat Vladimir Putin.
Friedrich Ebert Stiftung
The paper describes how well Europe cooperated and how many volunteers took in refugees after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Based on the varying levels of success that different countries have in caring for and integrating refugees, the author outlines recommendations.
Institut de relations internationales et stratégiques
Guerre en Ukraine: l’aide aux réfugiés, le bilan un an après
This summary gives an overview of the situation of the refugees from Ukraine in France and in the EU. It also addresses the subject of the reception of refugees in general.
Globsec Policy Institute
The article focuses on the largest and forced displacement since World War II with millions of Ukrainians fleeing abroad. A large percentage of Ukrainian refugees have higher or vocational education qualifications. In certain EU member states, more than half of Ukrainian refugees are estimated to be employed.
Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies
The Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 created massive cross-border movements out of Ukraine and back into the country. This brief presents a historical comparison of the Ukraine post-invasion migration with other similar situations in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries.
Vox Ukraine
Where do Ukrainians want to go? Migration aspirations and destination-country preferences in Ukraine
Since the beginning of the full-scale war one year ago, eight million Ukrainians have left the country. This paper analyses their long-term intentions: how many Ukrainians want to leave the country permanently, and what are their preferred destination countries.
Globsec Policy Institute
The revival of bank crediting in the wartime economy of Ukraine
In wartime, Ukraine could retain the banking system’s stability. However, bank loans have stagnated both in corporate and personal segments. This paper suggests measures to redesign the existing subsidized credit programs and rearrange the banking system to unlock the impediments of market-based credit provision. The revival of market-based crediting should restore the mechanisms of monetary policy transmission and enable the National Bank of Ukraine to be more effective in anti-inflationary control.
Globsec Policy Institute
The promotion of business resilience in wartime and post-war recovery
The resilience of businesses facing wartime risks is the cornerstone of the country’s resilience in a protracted full-scale war. Its strength in the medium- and the long run is based on the adaptive capacity of businesses to wartime challenges, combined with their inclusion in economic turnover. The paper examines the path toward resilience by focusing on macro-level policies, enhancing the institutional framework for businesses to network and supporting the internationalization of businesses.
IDOS - German Institute of Development and Sustainability
Wiederaufbau in der Ukraine: Was die internationale Gemeinschaft jetzt beachten muss
The authors shed light on the main priorities for reconstruction efforts in Ukraine, including Ukraine's European perspective and the cooperation of international bodies.
Centre for European Policy Studies
How successful have Western sanctions against Russia actually been?
The sanctions imposed on Russia by the EU and other Western economies primarily targeted its economy to weaken its ability to finance the war. Although the adverse impact of the sanctions on the Russian economy is evident, the damage has not yet been large enough to end the war, claims the report. On the one hand, the lack of cooperation at global level has diluted the impact of sanctions. On the other, Russia has moved to reduce its dependence on the US dollar, hence reducing the sanctions’ overall effectiveness.
Observer Research Foundation
The Ukraine war, sanctions, and the resilient Russian economy
Russia is now the world’s most heavily sanctioned country, according to US officials, with sanctions imposed mostly through executive orders. This article attempts to explain the resilience of the Russian economy in the face of such a comprehensive and unprecedented sanctions regime.
LSE Ideas
The energy crisis requires a military solution that compels NATO to spend like Estonia
The authors focus on the intimate relationship between the Russia-Ukraine war and the energy crisis, both for Ukraine and the rest of Europe. They argue that to solve the energy crisis, NATO and its allies need to “spend like Estonia.” Such an approach could help Ukraine to decisively win the war in 2023, and it would help to avert a potential energy crisis during the next winter.
Forum for research on Eastern Europe and Emerging Economies
Rebuilding Ukraine: the gender dimension of the reconstruction process
The post-war reconstruction of Ukraine will have to comprehensively address a number of objectives to set the country on a path of stable, sustainable and inclusive growth. This policy paper argues that the principles of “building-back better” need to take the gender dimension into consideration.
The Brookings Institution
2023 could be a decisive year for the future of Ukraine, the West, and global order and security - for better, but also for worse. Brookings scholars examine the lessons of the first year of Russia’s war against Ukraine and look ahead to coming challenges.
Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos
El ciberespacio en tiempos de guerra: la IT army ucraniana
For the first time ever, it has been possible to study cyberwarfare as part of a greater conflict. This paper analyses the rapidly created Ukrainian IT army to protect their cyberspace, highlighting, in particular, the necessary level of coordination between professional government personnel, the technology industry and, on occasion, actors that may be considered criminal.
New America
The article claims that the digital revolution is not only transforming how people think about truth, facts, and evidence, but most importantly it is changing the very essence of power and influence. Most importantly in the near term for Ukraine, tech and open-source intelligence is redefining what people mean when talking about frontlines.
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik
The authors look at the vulnerabilities of global supply chains to political shocks and seek to put a new focus on the geopolitical risks through over-dependencies on autocracies.
Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies - Centre for European Policy Studies
The impressive EU-Ukraine summits: alongside the inadequate enlargement methodology
President Zelensky`s tireless and dazzling summit diplomacy with Europe over the last two weeks – in Kyiv, London, Paris and Brussels – was supported by big EU contributions to Ukraine’s war effort in all ways but one, that being a failure to reform the EU’s enlargement methodology, which has been stagnating in the Balkans. This short piece argues that without this reform the EU, alongside Ukraine, may lose the peace.
European Centre for Development Policy Management
Six days after the EU-AU summit ended last year, Russia invaded Ukraine. According to the article, the EU is struggling with Africa’s lack of unequivocal support for the West’s efforts, including at the UN, to condemn Russia. For many African countries, this expectation feels misplaced – if not offensive. For them, the EU’s actions following the Russian war in Ukraine show the double standards of Europe when it comes to efforts against military aggression and peace negotiations.
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies
This study measures the interconnectivity between the EU and its neighbouring countries and compares these interconnections with those of the EU’s peers and rivals: the US, China, and Russia. It also argues that the EU should reinvigorate its partnership with the US (while also growing more prepared to stand alone), strike the right balance with China, and continue to decouple from Russia.
Friedrich Ebert Stiftung
Zeitenwende for Europe: public perceptions before and after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
This report outlines the shift in public opinion in wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, specifically in Germany, France, Poland, and Latvia. It concludes that the results of the survey provide a grim picture of heightened concerns and fears, that the war brought threat perceptions among the polled countries closer together, but that there are still notable differences, especially along East-West lines, which may complicate the formulation of a common EU security policy.
Globsec Policy Institute
This brief analyses the concept of Central Europe, a new geopolitical reality and gives some recommendations in that direction if Ukraine survives as an independent state.
Istituto Affari Internazionali
The war against Ukraine and Russia’s position in Europe’s security order
Russia’s aggressions against its neighbours since 2008 – first Georgia, then Ukraine twice – impel the urgent reconstruction of European security. The paper analyses how in Ukraine, Russia has unilaterally, and unprovokedly, violated or broken at least eight major international treaties and accords, ranging from the 1994 Budapest memorandum to the 1968 non-proliferation treaty.
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Italy’s response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine
In line with the EU’s policy, the brief notes that former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi and current Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni have taken a strong stance in response to the Russian aggression against Ukraine by firmly condemning the invasion and offering their full support for Kyiv’s territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence.
Istituto Affari Internazionali
The war against Ukraine and its lessons for NATO militaries: food for thought
The article conveys the message that the conventional war fought on the European continent between two large countries, including a nuclear power, is obviously a historical watershed for NATO and the whole Euro-Atlantic area, whose strategic implications are yet to be fully assessed.
Observer Research Foundation
How the Ukraine crisis changed Europe
The critical energy and economic infrastructure of the country are devastated. For Europe, Russian actions have strengthened the member states’ unity, revived and expanded NATO, and, more importantly, has led the Union to take some unprecedented decisions. This article highlights five key policy decisions taken by the EU in the past year.
Friedrich Ebert Stiftung
In the middle of Zeitenwende: change and continuity of public attitudes in Germany
This report outlines German public opinion in wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In particular, citizens were questioned regarding topics like their main personal concerns, Germany’s military spending, Ukrainian NATO and EU membership, or Germany’s foreign policy. The authors conclude that the Zeitenwende has undoubtedly started to manifest itself not only in politics but also in the minds of Germans.
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
The paper looks at how Putin’s authoritarian regime is transforming into a state where the war in Ukraine and the conflict with the West are becoming the basis of its legitimacy. The official discourse has become radicalized, and tensions are appearing within the regime. The paper argues that both the regime’s consolidation around Putin’s war policy and public opinion are dependent upon Russia’s military successes.
Egmont – Royal Institute for International Relations
This paper provides an analysis of Russian public opinion in the face of the Ukraine war, considering the preparations for a renewed spring offensive that will determine the outcome of the Ukraine war and the future of Putinism.
Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air
One year on, who is funding Russia’s war in Ukraine?
Russia’s illegal and brutal full-scale invasion of Ukraine started a year ago. Russia’s fossil fuel revenues have continued to enable the war even though they have declined. This briefing highlights how Russia’s fossil fuel revenues have decreased, what the impact of the recent sanctions has been on Russia’s revenues, and the leverage and options Ukraine’s allies have to further starve the Kremlin of fossil fuel revenues.
Österreichische Institut für Internationale Politik (Austrian Institute for International Affairs)
The key question is whether China will escalate supplies to meet Russia’s war needs, even as Russia’s war effort stumbles and Western nations step up their support for Kyiv. Will Beijing deliver more and new tech and parts? Will it supply Russia with complete weapons systems and ammunition? This article attempts to provide an initial prognosis. It draws on three key trends in recent debates on Beijing-Moscow ties in China’s foreign policy community.
German Institute of Development and Sustainability
Wiederaufbau in der Ukraine: was die internationale Gemeinschaft jetzt beachten muss
This brief states that the rebuilding of Ukraine starts now and the EU has to contribute. It further outlines which factors will be most relevant for this effort to succeed, taking into account the instability due to the still ongoing war and the lessons learnt from past rebuilding efforts such as in Iraq.
Carnegie Europe
After Russia's war against Ukraine: what kind of world order?
The article analyses the current trends based on strategic documents. It highlights the urgency of addressing transnational issues such as climate change.
Rand Corporation
Consequences of the war in Ukraine
One year ago, Russian ground forces, following a lengthy military build-up, invaded Ukraine. They came from Belarus in the north, Russian territory in the east, and Russian-occupied Crimea in the south. Today, the war continues, with no clear end in sight. How does this end, asks the author?
Centre for Eastern studies
More independence, less fear: Moldova’s perspective on Russia after a year of war in Ukraine
The article looks at the process of curbing Russian influence in Moldova in the context of Russia’s war which has led to a significant acceleration of dismantling the legal, institutional and economic ties between the two countries.
Euro-Mediterranean Study Commission
The Russian aggression against Ukraine has affected the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in a delicate manner from political, economic, and social perspectives. The brief analyses various reactions of MENA states to the Russian-Ukrainian war by the end of 2022. It concludes with recommendations for the EU to better manoeuvre in the MENA region in this era of intensifying great power rivalry.
Center for Strategic and International Studies
A hesitant hemisphere: how Latin America has been shaped by the war in Ukraine
Latin America's principle of non-intervention in the affairs of another country remains potent today, with many abstentions from the UN resolution for the aggression against Ukraine and Ukrainian support rejections, even from all three major non-NATO allies in the region. This article provides an overview of the stance of different Latina America countries towards the Ukraine war and what the war in Ukraine means for them.
Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung
This analysis, taking its cue from the recent Ukraine resolution vote at the UN General Assembly, reports on the global perspectives of Russia's invasion of Ukraine one year after the full-scale invasion.
Vox Ukraine
The driving factors behind UN votes on Russia's Ukraine invasion
This research studies the reasons behind certain countries voting in favour of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine at the UN General Assembly’s first emergency session. It identifies several common factors significantly impacting the probability of voting in favour of Russia.
Rand Corporation
What does Russia's war on Ukraine mean for the international order?
The author claims that the war has shown the danger of Russian revanchism and the risk of living next door to a power that embraces war as a coercive tool. He also highlights the West's role as a major protector of the democratic world and Ukraine's advantages as a result of three decades of democratic development.
The Institute for National Security Studies
One year into the war in Ukraine: Israel's preparedness for the changing aerial threat
According to the article, the war in Ukraine is an opportunity for countries that are liable to face similar scenarios to study and prepare for such eventualities. Substantial challenges require an in-depth understanding of the change and rapid, efficient adaptation of Israeli preparations for any future threat situation.
Observer Research Foundation
Lessons from the Ukraine-Russia conflict
This note analyses two distinct sets of lessons to be drawn from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. One set of lessons pertains to battlefield tactics, while the other is about strategic war lessons.
Peace Research Institute Oslo
Russia-Ukraine war compels Japan to reassess China challenge, shift course on security
The author discusses Russia’s military presence in Asia, which is deeply curtailed as most of its conventional capabilities are redeployed to the Donbas front in Ukraine, the behaviour of maverick North Korea which has become more reckless and China’s policy which has become less predictable and more assertive.
Peace Research Institute Oslo
China’s plan for Ukraine is no plan at all
On February 24, one year after Russia began its invasion of Ukraine, China released a paper on “China’s position on the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis” in which exposes 12 points about useful insights into China’s own perception about its role in the international arena as well as its positioning with respect to global dynamics of power. According to this brief, China’s position paper will not contribute to peace in Ukraine, but it does offer useful insights into how Beijing conceives of its global role.
Observer Research Foundation
The paper describes how the Ukraine conflict provided the Communist Party of China with a great opportunity to closely examine how modern wars are waged and its implications with regard to Taiwan.
Observer Research Foundation
Ukraine-Russia conflict: impact on South Asia
The article claims the Ukraine crisis has exacerbated the economic turmoil in the South Asian economies. The Ukraine-Russia conflict has thrown the energy markets into a crisis in several Global South nations. In addition, the supply cuts by edible-oil exporting countries, alongside the rise in fuel prices, have led to a surge in food prices, making food security a primary concern, especially for the vulnerable sections of society.
24.2.2023
Globsec Policy Institute
The report looks at the course of the war, identifying initial lessons for armed forces in NATO countries. It provides political recommendations derived from Ukrainian experiences.
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Experts react: factors shaping the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2023
This analysis contains several experts' comments on issues such as the life-or-death question of continued outside aid for Ukraine and the resilience of the Ukrainian people; cohesion in the Russian military and the potential for catastrophic collapse; the looming nuclear question; and how a conflict might end.
Observer Research Foundation
NATO should pursue peace over victory in Ukraine: here is why and how
This brief focuses on how the war can be ended without surrendering to Russia or depriving Ukraine of its right to self-defence. A close look at the military, political, and moral dimensions of the war is needed to understand why it will continue unless the West settles it.
European Council on Foreign Relations
United West, divided from the rest: global public opinion one year into Russia’s war on Ukraine
This policy brief looks into a new poll which suggests that Russia’s war on Ukraine has consolidated ‘the West’; European and American citizens hold many views in common about major global questions. Europeans and Americans agree they should help Ukraine to win, that Russia is their avowed adversary, and that the coming global order will most likely be defined by two blocs led respectively by the US and China. In contrast, citizens in China, India, and Turkiye prefer a quick end to the war even if Ukraine has to concede territory.
Rand Europe
From gatherer of lands to gravedigger: a political assessment of Putin's war on Ukraine
In invading Ukraine, Putin violated international law and effectively tore up numerous long-standing Russian commitments to maintain Ukrainian and European security. This article assesses how Putin, by using military aggression to forcibly change the borders of sovereign European states, has again violated one of the core rules that has for the most part preserved European peace for over 70 years.
Atlantic Council
Ukrainians are united in rejection of any compromise with the Kremlin
This article refers to a Ukrainian nationwide survey which offers important insights into Ukrainian perceptions of victory. Perhaps the most significant finding is that Ukrainians are not ready to accept a return to the status quo on the eve of the full-scale invasion when Russia already occupied Crimea and parts of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions in eastern Ukraine. Instead, a commanding majority of Ukrainians are convinced that only the full restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity within the country’s internationally recognized borders can bring peace.
Japan Institute of International Affairs
Russia's aggression against Ukraine and international response
The paper analyses how, in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the Ukrainian forces, with military support from Western countries, responded by launching a large-scale counteroffensive in the summer. Russia unilaterally declared the annexation of four provinces in eastern and southern Ukraine in September, and since October it has been escalating the war, including carrying out missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, without a clear exit strategy.
Chatham House
One year on, how can the war on Ukraine end?
According to the brief, no sane participant or observer of this war wants it prolonged unnecessarily. But now is not the time to be advocating an urgent ‘solution’.
Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)
The reluctant co-aggressor: Minsk’s complicity in the war against Ukraine
The article analyses the role of Belarus in the Russian war against Ukraine, the anti-war attitude of the public and the probability of bigger involvement of Belarus in the aggression. It details the current military strength of Belarus including air and land forces, as well as the Russian military presence in the country.
Institut français des Relations internationales
Liberté, Union européenne, OTAN: la société ukrainienne a fait son choix
Ukrainian resistance is part of a long process, which began with independence in 1991 and was confirmed in 2014. The paper argues that a continuous trend has brought the country's opinion very much closer to the EU and then to NATO, leading it to seek a real separation from Russia and especially from its Soviet historical heritage. Ukraine intends to emerge from the war as a true European democracy.
Chatham House
How Ukraine’s invention and resilience confounds Russia
Years of adversity, public unity and private-sector creativity have made Ukraine a formidable enemy, writes the author. Ukraine remains resolute in resisting Russian aggression because it deployed a ‘total defence’ approach, which combines both military and civilian components.
Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung
Journalismus in der Ukraine: mehr als ein Informationskrieg
According to the paper, Ukraine's regional and national media is threatened by the brutal Russian invasion and occupation. The war changed the work of journalists. Media business models are under threat.
Chatham House
Ukraine needs women to win the war – and the peace
The brief argues women are vital in the war effort - but better female political representation will also be needed to rebuild Ukraine.
Chatham House
Helping Ukraine’s sex-crime survivors
The growing numbers of Ukrainian women recovering from sexual violence at the hands of Russian forces need support, protection, and legal aid, claims the author.
Migration Policy Institute
Prolonged Ukrainian displacement: an uneasy marriage of reception, integration, and return policies
This commentary explains the Ukrainian displacement crisis sparked by Russia's invasion, and the fact that European policymakers are having to confront the likelihood of a prolonged stay for millions of Ukrainians and the prospect of new displacement.
Institut für Weltwirtschaft Kiel
The Ukraine support tracker: which countries help Ukraine and how?
This paper presents the Ukraine support tracker, which lists and quantifies military, financial and humanitarian aid to Ukraine in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war.
Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)
A year of war in Ukraine’s foreign trade
The article analyses Ukraine’s foreign trade patterns in 2022 by presenting statistics in exports and imports in terms of transport modes, geographical regions, and categories of food.
Center for Social and Economic Research
Economic priorities in post-war Ukraine
The report focuses on the essential reforms that will help Ukraine with the post-war reconstruction and enable progress in its efforts on the way to EU membership. It addresses many of the complex tasks that Ukraine needs to complete, with the main challenge being the rule of law.
Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW, Köln)
Auswirkungen des Krieges in der Ukraine auf die Weltwirtschaft: IW-Schätzung der Größenordnungen
According to this paper, global economic output in 2022 is likely to have been well over 1,600 billion US dollars lower than it would have been without the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In 2023, global production losses could amount to around another 1,000 billion US dollars, given the current framework conditions.
Chatham House
Ukraine business resilience can inform reconstruction
The brief looks at how Ukrainian companies are showing remarkable resilience by continuously adapting production processes and logistics to meet the dynamic challenges of the war.
Centre d’Etudes et de Recherches internationales
Russia's GDP fell in 2022, but less than analysts expected. Projections indicate that this decline is expected to continue in 2023 before giving way to a period of stagnation. The author explains this situation and these forecasts.
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik
Russia's war economy: how sanctions reduce military capacity
Sanctions are a strong signal of Western resolve to oppose Russia’s war against Ukraine and have significantly weakened its ability to wage war. But Russia is adapting, turning its economy into a war economy, ramping up military production, and adjusting to sanctions. This brief looks at Russia’s economic adjustment with a focus on the shifting of resources to war purposes and the effect of sanctions on military production.
Center for Strategic and International Studies
A continent forged in crisis: assessing Europe one year into the war
This report gives us an overview of the situation in Europe after one year of war (past, present and future). It notes inter alia that the coming year - the last before EU parliamentary elections - will be critical to Europe’s future direction. While the outcome of the war remains uncertain, there are many economic and political challenges that will require significant political leadership, vision, and capital.
Egmont Royal Institute for International Relations
From buffer to frontier: Ukraine and the EU
In June 2022, the EU granted candidate status to Ukraine. The paper qualifies it as a strong political statement, which was welcomed as such in Kyiv. But for a country at war, symbols do not suffice. Ukraine was a buffer state; it has become a frontier state. The EU should finally come up with an overall plan to provide military support to Ukraine over the long term, gradually taking over the main effort from the United States.
Centre for European Reform
The impact of the war in Ukraine: annual report 2022
This annual report starts with an essay on how the war in Ukraine is changing Europe, outlining 10 main consequences.
Real Instituto Elcano (Elcano Royal Institute)
Lecciones de la guerra en Ucrania: piedra, papel o tijera
Building on the assumption that the invasion of Ukraine is the first 'triple' war in European history, the article analyses some key lessons for all the actors involved. It concludes that none of them is likely to achieve a definitive victory in the conflict.
Fondation Robert Schuman
Geopolitical and technocratic: EU international actorness and Russia’s war against Ukraine
La guerre en Ukraine et l’action de l’Union européenne: expertise technique et politique
The policy paper examines the EU’s pre-war and wartime policies towards Ukraine and the Eastern Neighbourhood countries, arguing that the EU’s ability to be both a geopolitical and technocratic power will determine its future role in this area.
Atlantic Council
In 2022, the war in Ukraine awakened Europe: here’s how it must adapt in 2023
Europe has been faced with a new geopolitical reality in the aftermath of Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine. This paper compiles views of experts on how the EU has been compelled to reconsider everything from its military posture and relations with Ukraine to tech and trade challenges and its own institutions.
International Crisis Group
Keeping the right balance in supporting Ukraine
Russia’s war in Ukraine may go on for some time to come. This paper explains how the EU and its member states can keep supporting Kyiv while avoiding direct clashes with Moscow.
Observer Research Foundation
Ukraine’s charm offensive in Europe
The article explores the diplomatic outreach to Europe which was largely aimed at persuading the European allies to provide weapons and larger military assistance to support the Ukrainian military to counter the expected Russian spring offensive.
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik
Waffenlieferungen an die Ukraine: »Fahren auf Sicht« – auch was das Völkerrecht angeht
According to the federal government, Germany supports the Ukraine by supplying arms in the exercise of their individual right to self-defense against the war of aggression waged by Russia but does not become a party to the war. The paper argues that, in terms of international law the question arises as to when support in an armed conflict turns into an indirect use of force.
Chatham House
NATO can learn from Ukraine’s military innovation
Expensive procurement and bureaucratic torpor hamper the alliance – Ukraine’s embrace of cyber technology and new funding shows the way forward, claims the author.
Külügyi és Külgazdasági Intézet (Institute for Foreign Affairs and Trade)
Serbia and the Russia–Ukraine war: implications and challenges II
The outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022 has had a marked effect on the Western Balkan region, notes the report. Among the countries of this region, Serbia is in a unique situation due to its military neutrality, and the fact that it follows a balancing foreign policy between the Western powers on the one hand, and Russia, Turkey, and China on the other hand. The paper continues to review the consequences and challenges of the war on Serbia by examining the energy domain.
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
The impact of the war in Ukraine on the political stability of Russia
The strategic file looks at the political stability and future of the Russian regime in the context of the war in Ukraine. It examines three possible scenarios of the development of the situation, arguing that the most likely variant is the consolidation of Putin’s regime.
Institut français des Relations internationales
Un an de guerre en Ukraine: où en sont les Russes?
The paper notes that the Russian population, fed by Kremlin propaganda for years, overwhelmingly approves of the war in Ukraine. Critical or dissenting voices exist, but they are all the less publicly expressed as the challenge is punishable by heavy penalties. Faced with the stiffening of the regime, many opponents, and men hostile to the mobilization left Russia. They are considered traitors in their country but are not always welcomed elsewhere.
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Man vs. myth: is Russia’s Prigozhin a threat or asset to Putin?
The article offers a brief portrait of Wagner mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin, his strengths and weaknesses within the Russian power structure. It warns of Prigozhin's adaptability to new scenarios and the possibility of him becoming a danger to his current allies.
New America
Rebranding the Russian way of war
Drawing on five years of intensive research, this report is part of a series investigating the Wagner Group, Russia's shadowy paramilitary cartel, to shed light on its deception operations and map its expansive reach.
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik
What the prospect of a prolonged war means for Russia, Ukraine and Belarus
One year after the massive attack on Ukraine, the Kremlin is sticking to its maximum goals, a negotiated settlement is not in sight. How a prolonged war can affect Russia, Ukraine and Belarus is analysed in this paper.
Atlantic Council
Europe’s last empire: Putin’s Ukraine war exposes Russia’s imperial identity
According to the report, Vladimir Putin insists Russians and Ukrainians are “one people” but his brutal invasion of Ukraine has revealed a remarkable lack of “brotherly” Russian empathy for Ukrainians. This apparent lack of empathy for the victims of Russian imperial aggression is nothing new. Many Russians displayed similar attitudes toward the two Chechen wars of the early post-Soviet era and the 2008 invasion of Georgia.
Chatham House
Seven ways Russia’s war on Ukraine has changed the world
Experts examine the shifts in geopolitical alliances, security, energy, and supply chains and whether these changes are likely to be long-lasting.
Friedrich Ebert Stiftung
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: the Iran nuclear price tag
The author assesses the drivers behind the shifts in Iran-Russia relations and Moscow’s Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) policy in the wake of the war in Ukraine.
Friedrich Ebert Stiftung
Close but complicated: Iran-Russia relations in the Middle East amid the war in Ukraine
The paper examines the complex nature of relations between Moscow and Tehran in the wake of Russia’s war in Ukraine and discusses the implications of the Middle East.
The International Institute of Strategic Studies
The Gulf states, Israel and Turkiye: reactions to the war in Ukraine
The article assesses the geopolitical significance of the war by focusing on the perspectives of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, Israel and Turkey.
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Sailing through the storm: Türkiye's Black Sea strategy amidst the Russian-Ukrainian war
This brief explores Türkiye’s pre-war geopolitical posture, both generally and with specific reference to the Black Sea. It focuses on the Turkish response to the ongoing war in Ukraine and its evolution over time. It also examines the role Türkiye plays in the Southern Caucasus, and the implications for the EU and the West more broadly.
The Brookings Institution
Lessons from the meme war in Ukraine
This analysis explores Ukrainians’ use of memes which points to several findings that shed new light on how other countries may use memes during conflict war. Some memes are in both Ukrainian and English, suggesting they are designed to shape the attitudes of domestic and international audiences.
Chatham House
Divided US support shows time is not on Ukraine’s side
The brief claims that growing public opinion evidence and uncertainty about the future of the war suggest that continued American support for aiding Ukraine should not be assumed.
8.2.2023
UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE
Ukraine: a real peace will require change from Russia
The paper reflects on the possibilities for a negotiated end to the war. It argues that, as an imperialist power, Russia will need to be defeated militarily before it abandons war as a means of dominating its neighbours. However, while the West should maintain its full support for Ukraine's defence, it should also encourage negotiation towards concrete goals.
THE INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES
Russia’s war in Ukraine: what are the emerging military lessons?
The Russia-Ukraine war has demonstrated some key features of modern war between states. The article focuses on crucial factors of the war, such as the battle of the narratives, competence as prime military capability, cyber-attacks, the importance of battlefield transparency and limitations of precision weapons.
FRIENDS OF EUROPE
Digging in for the long haul in Ukraine: the army of the East and the army of the West
The past few weeks have witnessed a frenzy of activity when it comes to arming Ukraine. Much of the media attention has focused on whether Germany would send Leopard 2 tanks to help Kyiv withstand any further onslaught by Russia and perhaps itself go on the offensive when the winter snows melt. The author comments on Germany's stance regarding the delivery of Leopard tanks in response to Ukraine’s request for 300 modern, Western tanks in a short timeframe.
TERRA NOVA
La paix, c'est la guerre: faut-il négocier maintenant avec Poutine?
This brief considers whether it is time to put an end to the terrible war that is tearing Ukraine apart by starting negotiations with the Russian President as soon as possible or whether this would really serve the cause of peace.
ÖSTERREICHISCHE INSTITUT FÜR INTERNATIONALE POLITIK (AUSTRIAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
Putin’s war in Ukraine: how to get out of it?
The largest armed conflict in Europe since WW II has entered its 300th day without a clear outcome. The author believes that Russia’s hasty withdrawal from northeastern Ukraine and its humiliating defeat in Kherson are by no means signaling the last stretch of the war and notes that neither side appears willing to negotiate at this stage.
COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
The West is sending light tanks to Ukraine: will they make a difference?
As Ukraine is set to receive dozens of light tanks from the US, France, and Germany, the author asks how these weapons will bolster Ukraine’s defence against Russia.
CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS / STOCKHOLM CENTRE FOR EASTERN EUROPEAN STUDIES / GLOBSEC POLICY INSTITUTE
Jak Zachód może pomóc Ukrainie. Trzy strategie na ukraińskie zwycięstwo i odrodzenie
How the West can help Ukraine: three strategies for achieving a Ukrainian victory and rebirth
The report synthesizes some pathways and instruments for the West to help Ukraine with its defence and revival and presents them in the framework of three strategies: modification; adaptation; and innovation. They apply to military and contingency support, macro-financial, humanitarian, and technical assistance, modernization and reconstruction, as well as European integration.
INSTITUT DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES ET STRATÉGIQUES
Livraison de chars de combat: quels besoins opérationnels pour l’Ukraine?
This article briefly explains the importance of supplying tanks to Ukraine.
THE HAGUE CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES
Lessen uit het landgevecht: eén jaar oorlog in Oekraïne
This summary focuses on the land battles. The multidimensional aspect of the war is also highlighted. It concludes that there is a real Russian threat for 10 to 15 years.
CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
The Russian Arctic threat: consequences of the Ukraine war
This report relates to the impact of Russia's war in the Arctic. The following issues are explored: Russian conventional military capacity in the Arctic before the war; the impact of the war on Russia's conventional capacity; the hybrid threats in the Arctic; and the implications for NATO and the US.
INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR DEFENCE AND SECURITY
Why Russia went to war: a three-dimensional perspective
To many outsiders, the war of 2014 was a ‘hybrid war’ launched by ‘separatists backed by Russia’, rather than a fully-fledged war, and the ‘Minsk process’ was defusing it. Until the US presented details of Russian war plans at the end of 2021, very few observers expected Russia to transgress the bounds of coercive intimidation in its dealings with Ukraine. Once war broke out in February 2022, the pervasive question was ‘why?’ This analysis seeks to answer this question.
VOX UKRAINE
Reforms, corruption and civic activism: opinion of Ukrainians in October-2022
When Ukrainians were asked about their attitude to reforms, their answers were following:
Ukrainians express high support for reforms, with relatively higher support of those reforms of which they can feel the results “with their own skin” (e.g., healthcare, education reform or digitalization). Also, Ukrainians name the army reform as one of the most important (although it may not be rational to radically reform the army during the full-scale war).
VOX UKRAINE
Association agreement at the wartime and the road to membership
According to the brief, it is necessary to intensify implementation of the association agreement between Ukraine and the EU. This will not only accelerate Ukraine’s membership but also facilitate the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine, especially via cooperation between Ukrainians and Europeans in different spheres.
DEUTSCHE GESELLSCHAFT FÜR AUSWÄRTIGE POLITIK
Russia’s war in Ukraine: rethinking the EU’s eastern enlargement and neighborhood policy
This paper deals with the revision of the EU’s enlargement policy and with the revision of the Eastern Partnership. It concludes with policy recommendations.
ZENTRUM FÜR EUROPÄISCHE INTEGRATIONSFORSCHUNG
The evolution of the EU’s perception towards Ukraine
Getting an EU perspective and a candidate status took Ukraine through a long, complex, and controversial integration path, according to the paper. To get a better insight of how the EU’s perception of Ukraine has developed over time, this paper aims to shed light on key turning moments and political developments in Ukraine.
HEINRICH-BÖLL-STIFTUNG
Russlands Krieg gegen die Ukraine: Neugestaltung der östlichen EU-Nachbarschaftspolitik
The Russian aggression against Ukraine weakens Russia's hegemony in the post-Soviet space, notes the brief. Countries such as Turkey and China are becoming important players in the reorganization of the regional order. It also argues that the EU must improve its policy towards the eastern neighbourhood in order to remain a relevant stakeholder.
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN REFORM
Germany, Russia and Ukraine: from 'turning point' to missing the point
To ensure that Ukraine wins, the West needs to act more boldly, claims the author. Most NATO states have so far only supplied Ukraine with equipment that they regard as surplus to their national defence needs, holding onto much more ‘just in case’. In his view, Western leaders should now supply Ukraine with as much help as is required to stop Putin.
STOCKHOLM CENTRE FOR EASTERN EUROPEAN STUDIES - CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES
The $300 billion question: how to get Russia to pay for Ukraine’s reconstruction
As the scale of Russia’s destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure increases by the day, the issue on how reconstruction is going to be paid is posed with urgency. The report points out that with the capacity of the EU and US to fund reconstruction is at best counted in tens of billions of dollars or euros. Ukraine itself is financially devastated. Even adding in the World Bank and other multilateral sources, the gap between needs and probably available funds is huge, unless the widely quoted $300 billion of assets of the Russian central bank frozen by G7 countries are mobilised.
BRUEGEL
The impact of the Ukraine crisis on international trade
The report studies the economic implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, by scrutinising global trade volumes and commodity prices, trade balances and bilateral trade flows between major economic powers and Russia. It finds that energy prices increased more in 2021 than in 2022, suggesting that the war and the sanctions were not the most important drivers.
RAND EUROPE
Avoiding a long war: US policy and the trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine conflict
The authors argue that, in addition to minimizing the risks of major escalation, US interests would be best served by avoiding a protracted conflict. The costs and risks of a long war in Ukraine are significant and outweigh the possible benefits of such a trajectory for the US. Although Washington cannot by itself determine the war's duration, it can take steps that make an eventual negotiated end to the conflict more likely.
INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP
How Ukraine can score another win at the UN
Diplomats in New York are debating how the UN should mark the first anniversary of Russia’s all-out assault on Ukraine – and the continuing Ukrainian resistance – at the end of February. This article explains that it is partly a matter of diplomatic ritualism – both the UN Security Council and General Assembly will hold sessions to note the milestone – but it touches on deeper questions about exactly what types of measures UN member states are prepared to support as the war goes on.
HEINRICH-BÖLL-STIFTUNG
The war in Ukraine and the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict: the West needs to re-evaluate its approach
Russia's war in Ukraine is changing the balance of power in Eastern Europe. This paper goes through the implications for the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict and assumes there are new options for mediation for the EU and the West.
CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES
Mobilizacja w Rosji – reakcje społeczne i skutki gospodarcze
The article provides factual information on mobilization in Russia in 2022 and examines social reactions as well as mobilization’s impact on the Russian economy.
HEINRICH-BÖLL-STIFTUNG
It is not about ‘neutrality’: how the global south responds to Russia’s invasion
The brief claims that analysis of how the ‘Global South’ and the ‘Global North’ diverge in how they view and relate to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Differences in means, risks and perceptions are deemed to explain the gap.
INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES
La Russie en guerre et le monde musulman
This note focuses on Russia’s relations with the Muslim world and how it has been transformed – or not – by war. It examines both the apprehension of the new situation by Muslims in Russia and the reaction of Middle Eastern countries to the strategic upheavals triggered by the war in Ukraine and Western sanctions. It shows that the role and place of Islam in Russia has been strengthened by the context of the war, with the Kremlin considering Muslim institutions and Muslims as a whole to be among the groups in Russian society most loyal to it.
18.1.2023
FOREIGN AFFAIRS INSTITUTE
How the battle for the Donbas shaped Ukraine’s success
The authors comment on Ukraine’s successes in Kherson and Kharkiv which were largely a result of the losses it inflicted on the Russian military in the Battle for the Donbas in the spring and early summer. Attrition enabled successful maneuver warfare. The course of the war in 2023 will depend heavily on external support and how well Russia integrates mobilized soldiers.
UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE
Ukraine’s Zelenskyy asks: can we shorten this war?
The article tries to answer the question posed by Zelenskyy: “can we shorten this war?” It explores the role of the United States in this undertaking by looking at Zelenskyy’s and Biden’s exchange on 21st December 2022.
UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE
Ukraine: can we shorten a path to peace in 2023?
How will Ukraine’s war evolve in 2023, and can it yield a path to peace? Analysts’ scenarios for the war are full of unknowns. This article looks at future scenarios for the war in 2023 and which are the options for peace.
THE INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES
Open-source intelligence and the war in Ukraine
“The first digital war” is one way to describe the events underway in Ukraine. The flood of open-source information helps intelligence organizations obtain a precise picture of the situation but may also lead to confusion and unfounded bias. What can Israel learn from the Ukraine experience of the past year on the correct use of open-source intelligence in times of war?
INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS
Ucrania: la guerra de los teléfonos móviles
One of the most original features of the Ukrainian war is the use of mobile phone networks by both sides. Ukrainians and Russians have made intensive use of mobile phone networks for purposes ranging from government communication with the civilian population, to civilian and military communications and to cognitive warfare. The paper looks at how the operations in Ukraine offer a new and, in some respects, surprising perspective on the role that mobile phone networks can play in today's military operations.
CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE
Russia’s wartime cyber operations in Ukraine: military impacts, influences, and implications
According to the paper, Russia’s cyber operations in Ukraine have apparently not had much military impact. This was probably for a multitude of reasons: Russia’s offensive limitations, as well as the defensive efforts of Ukraine and its partners; the particular context of this war, as well as structural features of cyberspace and warfare generally.
CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE
Cyber operations in Ukraine: Russia’s unmet expectations
Russia has achieved far less via cyber warfare in Ukraine than many Western observers expected. Furthermore, the paper notes that many aspects of Moscow's approach to cyber operations have been misunderstood and overlooked.
THINK TANK EUROPA
There will be no Christmas in Kyiv, but what war scenarios can we expect in the new year?
This article sets out six possible scenarios, including a frozen conflict, Russian conquests in Donbas, ceasefire and negotiations, a major war between Russia and NATO, for 2023 and analyses the probability of these potential developments over the net four to six months.
FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG
Mind the red line - Limits of European engagement in Russiaʿs war against Ukraine
According to the authors, there is growing awareness of the war as their analysis of German, French, Polish, and Latvian perceptions of the Russian war against Ukraine suggest. As such, the war has substantially changed perceptions of conflict and crisis in the surveyed countries, bringing back fears of war and awareness of developments in Ukraine.
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES -FRIEDRICH-EBERT STIFTUNG
Which kind of realism should drive Western support for Ukraine?
This explainer highlights several qualitative insights about the war derived from classical realism, which seem more relevant to the conduct of Western foreign policy. These insights make a convincing case for continuing and perhaps increasing the military support to enable Ukraine to liberate further territory.
FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN
The author considers among others that calls to talk are easier to issue from the sidelines than to answer in the real world where they are heard unevenly in a confusion of national temperaments, political purposes, public moods, economic pressures, and strategic interpretations. But keeping the war going is not enough without organizing the table where its end can be negotiated.
CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE
What the Russian invasion reveals about the future of cyber warfare
Three experts examine Ukraine’s success in cyber defense noting that cyber competition is going forward.
INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS
Los problemas de la estrategia trasladados al caso de Rusia…, y más allá
This article provides a critical analysis of Russia's strategy in the Ukrainian war. It refers to the views offered by Colin Gray, a modern-day Clausewitz (Prussian military thinker and strategist), who locates the role of strategy between the political will expressed by a state's leadership and the military political will expressed by a state's leaders and the military force that can be employed to achieve the ends defined by those leaders.
CEDOS
Six months of full-scale war in Ukraine: thoughts, feelings, actions
Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine has been a great social shock. The war affects emotional states, everyday lives and routines, public opinion, interpersonal relationships, socioeconomic situations, employment, civil activity. This study captures these changes allowing us to obtain data both for future research of Ukrainian society after the war and for planning transformative changes.
KONRAD ADENAUER STIFTUNG
24 February 2022 marks a turning point in Russian society. More than one million people have already left the country. The waves of emigration from Russia confront European states with fundamental questions about how to deal with Russians resisting the war. Contrary to fears, Russia has not (yet) closed its borders as the Russian government seems to see an advantage in critical voices leaving Russia.
GLOBSEC
Visegrad countries now host more than 2.1 million people, representing around a quarter of all Ukrainians who have fled their country following the Russian invasion, according to the paper. The region, therefore, has become a testing ground for different social, economic, political and information-related processes connected to the acceptance and integration of refugees.
CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
Enabling an economic transformation of Ukraine
The report focuses on the important role of private sector investment in Ukraine’s economic reconstruction and in helping Ukraine win the peace and secure membership in the EU.
BRUEGEL
The impact of the Ukraine crisis on international trade
The direct aim of trade sanctions seems to have been achieved, while Russia’s capacity to finance the war from fossil fuel revenues is bound to shrink, note the authors. They study the economic implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, by scrutinising global trade volumes and commodity prices, trade balances and bilateral trade flows between major economic powers and Russia. They find that energy prices increased more in 2021 than in 2022, suggesting that the war and the sanctions were not the most important drivers.
CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
The role of gas in Ukraine’s energy future
Gas plays a critical role in Ukraine’s energy system and can be a pillar of its post-war economy. The brief summarizes the country's gas resources and analyses how natural gas investment fits with other reconstruction priorities. It also examines the importance of Ukraine’s gas resources for a lower-carbon Europe.
INSTITUT FÜR EUROPÄISCHE POLITIK (INSTITUTE FOR EUROPEAN POLITICS)
Die Europäische Union und der Krieg in der Ukraine
The article analyses the effects of Ukraine’s war in the EU and the actions it has undertaken to palliate its consequences. It analyses the effectiveness of EU sanctions, EU arms deliveries, military aid and economic aid. It concludes with a perspective towards future integration.
COLLEGE OF EUROPE
This research analyses the decision to allocate funds from the EU humanitarian aid to third countries. It focuses on the factors that guide such decisions to allocate funds. It depicts the external and internal factors that could explain the amounts given. It analyses the cases of Palestine and Ukraine to answer the following research question: under which conditions does the EU invest in humanitarian aid and what determines the amount of aid?
CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE
EU defense and the war in Ukraine
In the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the EU is seeking to fulfill its defense potential. This brief considers how promising new defense policy proposals may lose momentum without more funds and attention.
This report proposes five possible scenarios of political and military transformations with varying degrees of likelihood. It combines the elements of foresight, expert survey, brainstorming, and desk-research instruments to map possible transformations and changes in Ukraine’s security environment.
FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN
The European Union and the war in Ukraine: liberal power and its limits
Taking into account the war in Ukraine, the author argues that it is the Franco-German relationship that remains central to any effective and legitimate European policy: where the two capitals diverge, Europe can hardly exist; where they converge, they can exert a knock-on effect that is certainly not automatic, but which is undeniably a strength.
FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN
This paper considers that the difficulty in anticipating Russian aggression against Ukraine and taking stock of the crimes committed by Russia results from a series of errors of reasoning in the EU’s relationship with Russia. Despite an evolution in understanding the true nature of the Russian regime for nearly a year, the Western aggiornamento remains incomplete.
CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE
Can Ukraine and Germany overcome their disagreements over Russia?
The brief argues that the problems in bilateral relations are unlikely to disappear any time soon. Ukraine won’t want to become another buffer zone separating Russia and the West, but that is the scenario Germany will give serious consideration, fearing another war or Moscow’s nuclear threats.
ILKO KUCHERIV DEMOCRATIC INITIATIVES FOUNDATION
The EU and Ukraine’s public opinion: changing dynamic
The paper reports Ukraine’s public opinion about EU integration and NATO membership as well as the causes and effects in the face of Russia’s aggression.
LSE IDEAS
Winter is coming: the Baltics and the Russia-Ukraine war
In this report, the authors focus on the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the Baltics. The report highlights both collective and country-level impacts and responses to the conflict. Given how closely the fate of Ukraine is intertwined with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, the manner in which the Baltics and NATO respond to the winter could significantly influence the Russia-Ukraine war. The report concludes with a variety of key policy recommendations aimed at the Baltics, EU and NATO.
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH - CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES
The rail silk road under the shadow of the war in Ukraine
The article analyses the impact of the war on the rail freight transport between Asia and Europe and the perspectives for its further development and operation.
KÜLÜGYI ÉS KÜLGAZDASÁGI INTÉZET (INSTITUTE FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE)
Serbia and the Russia-Ukraine war: implications and challenges I
The present paper answers three questions: how Serbian foreign policy has reacted to the international sanctions on Russia enacted in the wake of the invasion; what challenges Serbian military neutrality or non-alignment has faced since the outbreak of the war; and how the war and international sanctions have affected Serbian-Russian defence cooperation.
KÜLÜGYI ÉS KÜLGAZDASÁGI INTÉZET (INSTITUTE FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE)
Serbia and the Russia-Ukraine war: implications and challenges II
This second paper reviews the consequences and challenges of the war on Serbia by examining the energy domain. The main features and problems of Serbia’s energy sector are briefly reviewed, as is the issue of the country’s natural gas and oil supply after the war, in particular the effect of international or EU sanctions, the role of Russia as a supplier in the post-invasion period, and the efforts to diversify supply sources.
INSTITUT DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES ET STRATÉGIQUES
La guerre en Ukraine et ses conséquences géopolitiques
Armed confrontation is always accompanied by a war of influence. Yet, this war of influence can lead to radicalization. On the one hand, the brief argues that the caricatural proposals are a prerogative of debates where each takes a position radically opposed to the other. On the other hand, this search for nuance must never overwhelm the quest for truth.
INSTITUT MONTAIGNE
L'Otan serait-il vraiment responsable de l'invasion russe de l'Ukraine ?
This analysis contradicts the thesis according to which NATO’s expansion to the east would have led Putin to invade Ukraine. It shows that this argumentation strengthens Russia’s narrative and raises defiance between western and central eastern European countries.
ILKO KUCHERIV DEMOCRATIC INITIATIVES FOUNDATION
The brief suggests that the war between Ukraine and Russia created a profound global strategic and economic crisis for the South Asian countries. Despite some attempts in South Asia to stay neutral between aggressor and its victim, or even to benefit from the war, withdrawal of the Russian troops from Ukraine would be beneficial for South Asian countries.
14.12.2022
UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE
The authors call for a strategy for helping Ukraine win the war against Russia and the peace that follows. They make military, economic, political and diplomatic recommendations for such a strategy.
ZENTRUM FÜR EUROPÄISCHE INTEGRATIONSFORSCHUNG (CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN INTEGRATION STUDIES)
Europas Sicherheit, die Zukunft der Ukraine und die „russische Frage“
The author assesses possible options for Russia and the resulting consequences for the EU and Ukraine, including questions regarding Ukraine's membership of the EU and NATO. This includes an analysis of possible ceasefire scenarios that are more likely than a comprehensive and guaranteed peace agreement in the coming years.
THE POLISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
Pomoc wojskowo-techniczna dla Ukrainy: Ocena potrzeb krótko- i średnioterminowych (Military and technical assistance to Ukraine: the assessment of short and medium term needs)
The report summarises the Western aid provided so far to Ukraine and identifies military capabilities which are still necessary for the country to successfully stop the Russian aggression.
INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS
Ucrania: la tecnología en la guerra/Ukraine: technology in war
This article provides a series of considerations on how digitisation has influenced the conduct of warfare in Ukraine, both in strategy in general and in military operations. The lessons of the conflict shape a context of change in the way warfare is conducted from a revolutionary or evolutionary point of view.
INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP
Answering four hard questions about Russia's war in Ukraine
Russia’s war in Ukraine is taking a terrible toll. The Western response, nonetheless, remains the right one. The brief argues that NATO capitals should continue supporting Kyiv, while avoiding direct conflict with Moscow and keeping the door open for dialogue.
CHATHAM HOUSE
Offensive ideas: structural realism, classical realism, and Putin’s war on Ukraine
Controversy has surrounded realist explanations of the causes of Russia's war against Ukraine, particularly John Mearsheimer's charge of western responsibility. This article seeks to clarify and contextualize his argument, situating it within the broader paradigm. Realism, and even its narrower offensive sub-school, offers a wide range of contrasting interpretations, depending on which major actors are studied and what characteristics they are endowed with.
ILKI KUCHERVI DEMOCRATIC INITIATIVES FOUNDATION
This review analyzes available data on the state of cultural heritage and the overall state of the cultural and creative industries during the period of the Russian invasion.
INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS
The war in Ukraine has brought the use of nuclear weapons in high-intensity conflicts back into the spotlight. With the break-up of the former USSR, Ukraine had almost 2,000 nuclear weapons, making it the de facto third nuclear power on the planet. However, by signing the Budapest agreement in 1994, it handed over its entire nuclear arsenal to Yeltsin's Russia. The author queries whether we would be in the midst of a new war in Europe today if Ukraine had not submitted to the Budapest agreement.
INSTITUT MONTAIGNE
Le monde vu d’ailleurs: peut-on faire la paix avec Poutine ?
The reasons given by Vladimir Putin to justify the invasion of Ukraine are not sufficient to mobilize the population behind his army. However, the Kremlin's rhetoric has led to a radicalization of Russian opinion. The paper notes that it is naive to think that increased diplomatic pressure and additional sanctions will bring about a change in Russian policy and that a democracy will emerge from the rubble of Putin's regime.
BROOKINGS
The Russia-Ukraine war and its ramifications for Russia
Nine months into Russia’s latest invasion of Ukraine, the author points out that the outcome of the war remains unclear and the Russian military appears incapable of taking Kyiv or occupying a major portion of the country. Ukrainian forces have enjoyed three months of success on the battlefield and could well continue to make progress in regaining territory. However, some major ramifications for Russia and its relations with Ukraine, Europe, and the United States have come into focus.
CARNERGIE ENDOWMENT
Nothing in Putin’s record suggests that he will stop trying to drag Ukraine back into Russia’s sphere of influence. The brief points out that Putin’s consistent, persistent policy toward Europe and the United States, together with Ukraine’s critical place between Russia and the Western alliance, suggests that he is not about to change course.
ΕΛΛΗΝΙΚΟ ΙΔΡΥΜΑ ΕΥΡΩΠΑΪΚΗΣ ΚΑΙ ΕΞΩΤΕΡΙΚΗΣ ΠΟΛΙΤΙΚΗΣ (HELLENIC FOUNDATION FOR EUROPEAN AND FOREIGN POLICY)
Population displacements in the Ukraine war: the challenge of first humanitarian assistance
Since February 2022, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has triggered the largest war-related displacement of population in Europe since the aftermath of WWII. The report notes that setting up an effective humanitarian response to support internally displaced persons in Ukraine is a task of major political importance. However, in order to allow local actors, including volunteers, to collaborate with international humanitarian organisations, there seems to be a need to relax the common standards that apply to humanitarian assistance.
STIFTUNG MERCATOR
Europa und die Fluchtmigration aus der Ukraine MIDEM Jahresstudie 2022
2022 年 MIDEM 研究調查了從烏克蘭到歐洲的難民移民流動情況，並指出歐洲各國非常願意接受和幫助烏克蘭難民。
東歐和新興經濟體研究論壇（自由網路）
本簡報分析了當前白俄羅斯貨幣市場的主要影響因素，並闡述了可能導致市場不穩定的挑戰。此外，簡報也介紹了調整貨幣籃子中特定貨幣的重要性，以及白俄羅斯經濟從西方夥伴關係轉向東方夥伴關係的進程。
ΚΥΡIAKKO KENNTPΟ ΕYPΩΠAΪK Ω Ν ΚAі ΔIΕΝ Ω Ν ΥΥΟθ Ε ΣΕΩN（塞浦路斯歐洲和國際事務中心）
分析主要集中在兩點：達成談判協議的必要性以及重新評估西方對俄製裁。分析探討了俄羅斯的侵略行為及其遏制方式。另一種觀點則是基於務實主義，認為戰爭的最終結果並非非黑即白，而是灰色地帶，戰爭越早結束對各方越有利。
丹麥國際研究學院
該報告基於對「制裁政策週期」各個階段的機會和挑戰的分析，提出了以下建議：更好的情景規劃；加強支持制裁的成員國之間的小型聯盟建設；將貿易、國防和安全專家更協調地納入歐盟決策過程；更積極地努力改進成員國的國家製裁法律以支持實施；
弗里德里希·艾伯特基金會
俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭後，有關烏克蘭難民的虛假資訊日益被用來在歐洲製造不確定性和分裂。本文主張採取以監測、預見和社會韌性為核心的先發制人的「預先闢謠」策略，以打擊虛假訊息及其傳播。
布勒哲爾
俄羅斯對烏克蘭的戰爭已使全球相當一部分糧食出口面臨風險，並顯著推高了全球糧食價格。報告指出，這使得貧窮的、依賴糧食進口的國家更加脆弱，並可能造成嚴重的人道後果。這場危機也對歐盟的安全、移民和外交政策產生了負面影響。
卡內基歐洲
A paradigm shift: EU-Russia relations after the war in Ukraine
The brief argues that the war in Ukraine has strengthened European unity against Russian aggression. Such unity needs to be maintained in order to meet three big challenges: build a foreign and security policy towards Russia based on the idea that the EU is a geopolitical actor and Russia is the major threat to European security; devise more proactive policies to integrate the Eastern neighbourhood; and design a Russia policy that is tough on the regime of Putin while keeping alive the idea of a post-Putin Russia that is part of Europe.
CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
Bolstering collective resilience in Europe
The brief analyses European resilience in the light of Russia's war in Ukraine, focusing on the need for a new NATO approach to collective resilience through the creation of a NATO resilience planning process.
ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI
Russia’s war on Ukraine: two inconvenient truths for the EU
Following a spectacular counteroffensive and the retaking of Kherson, the war in Europe’s east has moved into a new phase. The immediate focus is now shifting to the chilling effects of winter – both on the frontline and on Western morale. However, the author notes that, this must not prevent the EU and its member states from confronting two key – and unavoidable – strategic questions: the continued risk of escalation and EU-Russia relations after the war.
ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI
The EU and Ukraine’s public opinion: changing dynamic
The brief elaborates on different topics such as how the West appreciated Ukraine’s pluralism by default; Ukrainians’ attitude towards the EU and NATO before 2014; EU ambiguity in the first phase of the Russia’s aggression (2014–2022); and the unanimous support for the EU and NATO after 24 February 2022.
INŠTITÚT PRE VEREJNÉ OTÁZKY (INTITUTE FOR PUBLIC AFFAIRS)
Russia’s war against Ukraine: a view from Slovakia
This publication maps out the Slovakia’s political situation as well as the views, opinions and attitudes of its population since the beginning of the military conflict.
STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK
This article analyses the militarisation of Russian foreign policy since 2008. The authors argue that the successful assertion of national interests is increasingly linked to the credible threat of military force or the actual use of military power.
CHATHAM HOUSE
Ukraine and state survival through neutrality
This article draws on the security policies of one-time neutral countries like Austria, Finland and Moldova, to probe the case for Ukraine as a sovereign but potentially neutral state. For Ukraine, a form of armed neutrality outside NATO could be a way to preserve sovereignty and statehood beyond the current war with Russia.
30.11.2022
ILKO KUCHERIV DEMOCRATIC INITIATIVES FUNDATION
本文探討了2022年不同階段烏克蘭公民對俄羅斯戰爭的看法。最新的民調結果顯示，烏克蘭人民決心解放烏克蘭的整個領土。
RAHVUSVAHELINE KAITSEUURINGUTE KESKUS（國際國防與安全中心）
本報告試圖回答以下問題：在最近解放的地區或遠離前線的地區，人們是如何生存的？戰爭對民用基礎設施造成了哪些影響？最後，其他國家可以從烏克蘭的經驗中學到什麼，以應對可能發生的戰爭？
戰略與國際研究中心
一些外國領導人日益呼籲澤連斯基總統透過和平談判結束戰爭。文章認為，對話固然重要，但現在強行達成和解無異於獎勵普丁總統的軍事侵略行為。美國及其西方夥伴需要做好準備，在烏克蘭的長期衝突中為其提供援助。
德國外交關係委員會
本文認為，波蘭近期發生的爆炸事件引發了一系列令人震驚的連鎖反應，而造成這一局面的，除了美國之外的各方都犯下了令人震驚的錯誤。文章也指出，西方國家的堅定立場和團結一致對於保衛烏克蘭和擊敗俄羅斯至關重要，而這或許將決定未來幾十年世界的命運。
布魯金斯
這份分析概述了即將到來的失敗可能的發展軌跡，這種軌跡將避免俄羅斯專制政權的災難性崩潰以及這個深陷困境的國家的瓦解。其基本假設是，俄羅斯的失敗可能突然到來並迅速展開，這一過程所帶來的挑戰和風險將與曠日持久且本質上無法取勝的戰爭中緩慢到來的失敗截然不同，也更為嚴峻。
歐洲政策中心
本文探討了有關烏克蘭難民的虛假資訊所帶來的挑戰，以及迄今為止為應對這些挑戰所採取的措施。文章也指出了歐盟應對措施中的積極進展和不足之處。
阿法裡國際學院
這場持續不斷的衝突暴露了交戰雙方的優勢和劣勢。考慮到這些因素，本簡報提出了幾種方案，其中包括解放被莫斯科佔領的烏克蘭領土。簡報也指出，這場衝突為歐洲戰略框架帶來了若干結構性變化，最主要的是芬蘭和瑞典加入了北約。
西班牙研究學院
報告指出，俄羅斯聯邦入侵烏克蘭對歐盟安全構成威脅，並可能加速歐盟內部各項進程，尤其是安全和防衛領域的進程。這或許意味著，現在正是採取必要措施實現上述歐洲戰略自主的良機。
海因里希·伯爾基金會
這份政策文件重點分析了從澤連斯基總統執政初期到俄羅斯全面侵略烏克蘭，直到今日的德烏雙邊關係。文件指出，兩國關係其實比大眾認知的還要好。然而，德國在滿足烏克蘭增援重型武器的要求方面猶豫不決，很可能再次將雙邊緊張局勢推到風口浪尖。
2022年11月16日
海牙戰略研究中心
烏克蘭戰爭爆發後的前七個月再次印證了戰爭並非僅限於物質層面。在現代高強度戰爭中，持續不斷的資訊戰與第一線民眾的行為相互作用，並對其產生影響。本文透過七個案例研究，探討了烏克蘭和俄羅斯的敘事如何發展和互動。
科學與政治基金會
俄羅斯對烏克蘭的戰爭始於2014年3月和4月吞併克里米亞以及在烏克蘭頓巴斯地區爆發的戰爭。此後，雙方就烏克蘭-俄羅斯衝突進行了談判。然而，作者認為，儘早透過談判解決問題的可能性比以往任何時候都更加渺茫。
西班牙研究學院
本文闡述了俄羅斯為何沒有利用其顯然擁有的強大網路工具在烏克蘭獲取戰略或戰術優勢。此外，文章也指出，烏克蘭戰爭可能會透過駭客的新格局改變國際衝突的傳統模式。
戰略與國際研究中心
Will the Ukraine war reshape the internet?
The invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing tensions among global powers have brought sharp attention to a major gap in internet governance. Therefore decisions about the internet’s role in geopolitics and in our society are coming under renewed scrutiny concludes the paper.
INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES
Russia's war in Ukraine: misleading doctrine, misguided strategy
This analysis examines the fundamental causes of the still-unfolding disaster, in Russian doctrinal propositions, strategic planning and military culture. It looks at the cyber dimension of the war and potential future cyberattacks.
RAHVUSVAHELINE KAITSEUURINGUTE KESKUS (INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR DEFENCE AND SECURITY)
Russia’s conduct of hostilities in Ukraine
During Russia's renewed invasion of Ukraine, the world has witnessed numerous violations of the rules of warfare by Russia’s armed forces. This analysis aims to explain the purpose and basics of the rules of warfare, classify the developments in Ukraine, and highlight selected violations and challenges related to the conduct of hostilities by Russia’s armed forces.
EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
Putin’s last ally: why the Belarusian army cannot help Russia in Ukraine
Concerns are mounting that Belarusian troops could join Russia’s forces in Ukraine. But this course of action would be extremely risky – for both Putin and Lukashenka. The article notes also that Belarus’s direct participation would not dramatically change the military balance in Ukraine, but it has the potential to destabilise the region even more and provoke another uprising against Lukashenka.
THE GERMAN MARSHALL FUND OF THE UNITED STATES
How its war on Ukraine killed Russia’s hydrogen ambitions
Russia’s current status as an energy superpower could be substantially reduced in the years to come. While this primarily relates to the trend of decarbonization in the world’s leading economies, the invasion of Ukraine and the sociopolitical and techno-economic consequences have jeopardized Russia’s ambition of becoming a key supplier of hydrogen. The article looks at the implications on a Russian, European and global level.
RAHVUSVAHELINE KAITSEUURINGUTE KESKUS (INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR DEFENCE AND SECURITY)
Russia’s legal arguments to justify its aggression against Ukraine
According to the brief, Russia has maintained that it has legitimate causes to conduct a “special military operation” in Ukraine. While Russia's legal arguments fail scrutiny by any honest observer, this paper provides an analysis of these arguments in order to understand how the Kremlin develops such misleading narratives, builds its legal case, twists international law, and exploits its ambiguities.
RAHVUSVAHELINE KAITSEUURINGUTE KESKUS (INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR DEFENCE AND SECURITY)
Russia’s Federal subjects at war: background and implications
This paper presents a concise background of the international relations of Russia’s governors, describes the ways the governors have supported the invasion since 24 February and provides an illustrative case study of Leningrad Oblast.
EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
No loitering: what Russia’s Iranian drones could mean for Ukraine
Russia is using Iranian-made drones to make up for its other shortcomings. The author considers that their use is unlikely to prove a game-changer, but Europeans should still assist Ukraine to defend against them.
VOX UKRAINE
Displacement, poverty and unemployment in Ukraine: three months into the full-scale war
The author looks into the effect of ground attack on poverty and unemployment, focusing on a persistent gender gap and calling for targeted social support for women in regions experiencing the attack on the ground.
CLINGENDAEL
Gestage toename beschermingsopdracht Oekrainse ontheemden
The paper examines the ongoing research on Ukrainian refugees to primarily create an estimation on how many Ukrainians need protection in the Netherlands, the length of such protection and create an estimation on the numbers of refugees who will return after the war.
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR DEMOCRACY AND ELECTORAL ASSISTANCE
Supporting Ukraine’s democracy after the war: key issues, comparative experience and best practices
This article outlines the key questions Ukrainians will face as they restart the regular work of their democratic institutions in the aftermath of the war - or, depending on future circumstances, a significant stepdown of hostilities - taking into account the country’s EU candidate status.
FUNDACION DE ESTUDIOS DE ECONOMIA APLICADA
Situación económica y respuesta a la crisis de Ucrania
This document analyses some indicators of the evolution of economic activity, prices and public finances. It also assesses the main measures taken by the Spanish government to mitigate the economic effects of the war in Ukraine.
VOX UKRAINE
The next day after we win the war: restitution of property rights in Ukraine
The article presents activities to help rebuild and upgrade Ukrainian real estate and land markets after the war in a reasonable timeframe and prevent undue stress and tension in all sectors of Ukrainian society.
OPEN SOCIETY FOUNDATIONS
War and peace: supporting Ukraine to prevail, rebuild, and prosper
In the context of an escalating war and despite the positive news of territorial gains for Ukraine in the east of the country, Ukraine’s reconstruction and recovery can now only be a mid- to long-term goal. The authors set out recommendations for making Ukraine’s reconstruction and recovery effective, just, inclusive, accountable, and sustainable.
BROOKINGS
Financing and governing the recovery, reconstruction, and modernization of Ukraine
This paper summarizes various proposals for organizing the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine. The governments of Ukraine and donor countries are currently discussing a “coordination platform” for aid.
BROOKINGS
Ukrainian recovery funding must be tied to anti-corruption
According to this paper, infusing strong approaches to anti-corruption into the recovery process is vital for Ukraine, for three reasons: the strategic imperative, the reform imperative, and the political imperative.
EUROPEAN POLICY CENTRE
Strengthening the impact of EU sanctions against Russian aggression in Ukraine
As Russia’s largest trade and economic partner, the EU has significant leverage to expand the current sanctions regime. This paper identifies five measures the EU can take to increase the impact of sanctions against Russia and end the war as soon as possible.
BRUEGEL
How have sanctions impacted Russia?
This paper assesses both the immediate economic impact and the likely longer-term impact of sanctions on the Russian economy.
NOTRE EUROPE – INSTITUT JACQUES DELORS
Europe facing Russia: what future for the strategy of sanctions?
The EU’s last set of sanctions against Russia, has triggered criticism. The brief argues that the lawsuit against the EU's sanctions strategy is in fact a lawsuit against the Europeans' efforts to carry weight on the international scene. Even though sanctions are not an absolute weapon nor an ideal diplomatic tool, they are the surest way for Europeans to influence relations within their own continent and the main means available to the Union today to establish a strategic balance of power.
EUROPEAN INSTITUTE FOR SECURITY STUDIES
Slow-acting tools: evaluating EU sanctions against Russia after the invasion of Ukraine
This brief identifies the purposes pursued by sanctions and the rationales that guide them. It relies on a broader set of criteria to produce a more accurate picture of their effectiveness. This helps develop a better understanding of the purposes and effectiveness of EU sanctions on Russia.
KONRAD ADENAUER STIFTUNG
G7-Preisdeckel für russisches Öl
The G7, the EU and other Western democracies are trying to reduce the revenues from Russian coal, gas and oil exports with sanctions and import bans amid the war in Ukraine. The author explores the implications of a G7 oil price cap as an instrument for sanctioning Russia.
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES
Assessing the EU’s military assistance to Ukraine: too little but not too late to do better
This brief aims to complement the existing narrative regarding the lagging military aid concretely delivered by the EU member states in comparison to the aid sent by the US and the UK, and to offer possible solutions on where – and how – the EU can plug the shortfalls.
EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
More tortoise, less hare: how Europeans can ramp up military supplies for Ukraine in the long war
This brief explains that European leaders must shift from supplying only short-term military support for Ukraine to providing long-term strategic assistance.
FONDATION POUR L’INNOVATION POLITIQUE
What future for nuclear deterrence?
With the war in Ukraine, questions on the future of nuclear deterrence in the changing geopolitical and technological context have risen in Europe. Its implications are particularly important for France, the only nuclear state in the EU. By rising questions and proposing solutions to the future of French deterrent, this study aims to contribute in a debate which is vital in a democratic state.
CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
NATO force planning and the impact of the Ukraine war
The article presents the priorities of NATO and national force planning and development, arguing that NATO force improvements are necessary in the light of lessons of the war in Ukraine and the advances taking place in warfighting and military technology.
ADVIESRAAD INTERNATIONALE VRAAGSTUKKEN
De Oekraine-oorlog als geopolitieke tijdschok
The war in Ukraine has lasted now for a significant amount of time and will continue to do so. This requires an adapted long-term strategy for the Netherlands and her foreign policy in the light of the new geopolitical situation, as the brief suggests.
CLINGENDAEL
Under great internal and external pressure, Germany is undergoing a process of soul searching over the direction of its foreign and security policy, the so-called ‘Zeitenwende’. But the outcome is by no means certain. However, the brief notes that even if the watershed in Germany’s foreign and security policy does not meet initial expectations, the shifts could be substantial and likely to have profound implications for the EU and the Netherlands.
ILKO KUCHERIV DEMOCRATIC INITIATIVES FOUNDATION
Why would Western policymakers favor a Ukrainian stalemate over victory?
The high cost of the war and its unpredictability raise questions about how Ukraine and Russia can sustain a long fight with changing goals. Over time, the West has become increasingly involved, gaining influence over Kyivan conflict dynamics, but it has maintained its reservations and cautiousness. The authors advocate further military support of Ukraine from the West for Kyiv to be able to speak to Moscow from a position of potency.
UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE
Ukraine: the EU’s unprecedented provision of lethal aid is a good first step
Over the past six months, the EU has provided €2.5 billion to Ukraine through the European peace facility for arms and equipment, signaling a more muscular EU foreign policy featuring the unprecedented provision of direct military assistance. While this represents an important step in aiding Ukrainians in their fight against Russia’s aggression, the article makes further recommendations to bolster Ukraine’s defenses and Europe’s security through this instrument.
INSTITUT MONTAIGNE
What future for transatlantic relations following the “Ukraine moment”?
This paper analyses the impact of the war in Ukraine on transatlantic relations. It argues that US engagement in European politics and US-EU moment of unity in the face of the war does not guarantee a stronger and lasting transatlantic relation. The successes achieved in the search for unity around Ukraine should be seen as an opportunity to look carefully at the sources of friction and new challenges, and to anticipate how to work together to identify the issues and then achieve results.
COLLEGE OF EUROPE
Despite its modest competencies in EU foreign and security policies, the European Parliament has taken a prominent role in the EU’s response to the war in Ukraine. In the ongoing debate on the future of Europe, the conflict could serve as a catalyst for more parliamentary involvement in external action.
REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO
Autonomía estratégica y defensa europea después de Ucrania
This article analyses the possible implications of the war in Ukraine for European security and defence policy and considers the need to move from focusing on crisis management operations abroad to focusing on territorial defence and deterrence. The potential of some of the EU's instruments for capability development, technology and arms procurement to strengthen its indirect but strategically and politically significant contribution to deterrence and territorial defence is noted.
EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
Defend, resist, repeat: Ukraine’s lessons for European defence
Ukraine’s response to Russian aggression in 2022 holds valuable lessons for the EU and its member states. The brief suggests that EU member states can learn from Ukraine’s experiences, but this should be a two-way street – with European countries continuing to supply weapons and provide training to Ukraine, and gaining real-world wartime insights in return.
CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT
Judy asks : is European support for Ukraine dependent on the United States?
The Biden administration has led the Western military and economic response to Russia’s attack on Ukraine notes the paper. Europe must be ready to act independently if and when Washington’s policy changes.
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
Advancing a framework for the stabilization and reconstruction of Ukraine
The purpose of this brief is to help Ukrainian, North American, and European policymakers consider stabilization and reconstruction needs and have a playbook in place regardless of the circumstances or outcome.
UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE
What a Russian nuclear escalation would mean for China and India
Despite rhetorical consternation and calls for a peaceful resolution, neither India nor China have shown a willingness to meaningfully push back against Putin’s escalations in Ukraine. Instead, the two Asian nuclear powers are approaching the situation with caution and calculated diplomacy. The article explores how leaders in Beijing and New Delhi might respond to a Russian nuclear escalation in Ukraine, and what effect it would have on their own nuclear doctrines.
LSE IDEAS
NATO’s 2022 Strategic Concept: matching ambition with reality
This article addresses the Concept’s recognition of necessary strategic realignment, with NATO’s widening in both its defence commitments and geographic focus on China, as well as its ambiguity in regard to practical military strategy, deterrence, and endpoint of the war in Ukraine.
RAHVUSVAHELINE KAITSEUURINGUTE KESKUS (INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR DEFENCE AND SECURITY)
Putin and Assad, partners in crime: why Russian forces steal wheat from Ukraine
This paper adds to the body of literature about the cooperation between Russia and Syria, and Russian geopolitical policy. It seeks to answer whether the theft of wheat from temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories is carried out systematically and, therefore, in line with Russia’s declared geopolitical goals in Syria in particular and the Middle East more broadly, as a means in its struggle for the multipolar world order.
KONRAD ADENAUER STIFTUNG
Neutralität durch „Bamboo Diplomacy“?
Amid Russia's war of aggression in Ukraine, expressions of solidarity for Kyiv have been numerous. On several occasions states in the UN General Assembly had to take a clear stand but Vietnam has largely refrained from doing so by abstaining. In light of this, the author argues that Hanoi's non-positioning is increasingly perceived as showing support for Russia.
26.10.2022
CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
Can the United States do more for Ukrainian air defense?
The article focuses on air defense systems that the United States and NATO might provide to Ukraine, pointing out the practical challenges involved and the limited abilities of the US and the EU in this field.
INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP
Walking a fine line in Ukraine
The war in Ukraine has entered a new phase. In this paper, the International Crisis Group urges the EU and its member states to keep balancing support for Kyiv with the imperative of avoiding a direct clash with Moscow.
EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
Mob unhappy: why Russia is unlikely to emerge victorious in Ukraine
According to this article, Putin’s mobilisation is unlikely to change the direction of the war - if Ukraine’s Western allies remain steadfast in their support.
THE HAGUE CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES
Russisch nucleair blufpoker: krankzinnig of communicatie? - 10 aanbevelingen voor NAVO-bondgenoten
This paper, “Russian Nuclear Bluff Poker: Insanity or Communication?”, looks at how Moscow is using nuclear threats to manage tensions with NATO without escalation spiralling out of control. According to the author, this does not mean that the risk is off the table, as it is questionable whether the West adequately picks up on these signals and, more importantly, understands them. Ten recommendations are put forward for NATO allies.
THE INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES
Russia is unlikely to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine
According to the author, fears of Russian nuclear-weapon use are greatly exaggerated as they are likely no closer to a Russian first use of nuclear weapons than at the end of February despite the concerns raised by US President Joe Biden in his remarks on 6 October.
BROOKINGS
How not to estimate the likelihood of nuclear war
As Russia retaliated for Ukraine’s destruction of the Kerch Bridge by launching strikes on energy facilities and civilian targets in Kyiv, commentators returned to the question of whether the world was inching closer to the brink of nuclear war. The authors urge caution with regard to probability estimates, recommending that questions and answers should instead focus on scenario-driven approaches that offer different pathways useful for reducing or eliminating certain scenarios.
CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT
To avert Armageddon, push for a cease-fire Ukraine
The authors are of the view that for Kyiv and its allies, negotiating an imperfect peace is preferable to risking a catastrophic nuclear confrontation.
STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK (SWP)
Russlands diffuse Nuklearrhetorik im Krieg gegen die Ukraine
Russia’s catch-all nuclear rhetoric in its war against Ukraine
In analysing Russia’s rhetoric relating to nuclear actions in its war against Ukraine, this article detects a careful Russian approach which suggests that cost-benefit calculations are likely to continue to render nuclear escalation unlikely. However, nuclear use cannot be fully discounted, particularly if war-related developments severely imperil the survival of Russia’s regime.
FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG
L'opinion mondiale et la guerre en Ukraine - Une enquête de la FES
This study examines public opinion on the war in Ukraine across 15 countries worldwide. Whilst an overwhelming majority of respondents said that the war between Russia and Ukraine has had a big impact on "everyday life, such as the cost of energy", respondents were divided on whether to continue sanctions against Russia, risking a spike in energy prices.
MIGRATION POLICY INSTITUTE (MPI)
Why the European labor market integration of displaced Ukrainians is defying expectations
Europe has opened its doors to millions of displaced Ukrainians at a time when many of its countries are experiencing major labour shortages. This article considers the risks and opportunities ahead, noting that whilst the early signs for their labour market integration are promising, uncertainty over how long they will stay, combined with hurdles such as language and qualification recognition barriers and child-care responsibilities, has meant many new arrivals are prioritizing any job over the right job.
EUROPEAN POLICY CENTRE
EU responses to Ukrainian arrivals – not (yet) a blueprint
European Commission President von der Leyen recently stressed that the EU’s responses to Ukrainian arrivals were not to be considered an exception, but rather to be used as a “blueprint” going forward. This paper asks: How much scope is there for doing so? And what is politically realistic?
BROOKINGS
Ukrainian refugees: challenges in a welcoming Europe
The EU has been much more welcoming to Ukrainians than to asylum seekers from the Middle East, Africa, and Afghanistan. This article considers the challenges ahead as refugee fatigue slowly emerges in Poland, Germany, the U.K. and elsewhere - not at a crisis stage yet but a cautionary sign as a tough winter on the economic and energy fronts looms.
CLINGENDAEL
Langetermijnbeleid nodig voor Oekrainse vluchtelingen
With the Ukraine refugee crisis as a result of the Russian invasion, Europe has been confronted with the largest protective assignment in the region since the Second World War. The historical decision to provide refugees with an accelerated temporary asylum position has prevented strain on an already encumbered asylum chain in Europe. The authors warn, however, that now is the time to look at long term solutions for the displaced to prevent further strain.
THE GERMAN MARSHALL FUND OF THE UNITED STATES
A modern Marshall Plan for Ukraine
The author draws upon historical lessons from the Marshall Plan to replicate it in order ensure the reconstruction and long-term economic recovery of Ukraine : civil society organizations as well as cities and municipalities, which were missing from the Marshall Plan, will be critical for Ukraine’s recovery.
BROOKINGS
History reveals how to get Ukraine reconstruction right: anti-corruption
While there is currently no clear end in sight to ongoing Russian military aggression against Ukraine, discussions are already active about Ukraine’s reconstruction. These discussions present a critical opportunity to incorporate meaningful anti-corruption mechanisms into a rebuilding process that involves hundreds of billons of dollars and extensive coordination among the international community.
VOX UKRAINE
International businesses leaving Russian market: is there progress?
When Russia launched a full-scale war against Ukraine, the international community reacted rapidly. An important step was the decision of many international companies to stop working with Russia. To leave or to stay has proved a difficult choice for many. Using data from Yale University and the LeaveRussia project, this article explores who and by what criteria distinguishes international companies between those that have left Russia, those that have stayed, and those that hesitate.
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES)
Walka o przetrwanie. Gospodarka Ukrainy w czasie wojny
The article presents the overview of the current state of Ukraine's economy, including the macroeconomic situation, the budget and tendencies in foreign trade. It sums up also the destruction of infrastructure in the country.
OBSERVER RESEARCH FOUNDATION
The Russia-Ukraine conflict and sanctions: an assessment of the economic and political impacts
Sanctions have been used by the US and the European Union extensively since 2014 in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with a new set of sharp and comprehensive sanctions implemented following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This paper examines the political and economic impacts of the sanctions on Russia, the sender countries, and the rest of the world.
ÖSTERREICHISCHE GESELLSCHAFT FÜR EUROPAPOLITIK
Neutralität und der österreichische Beitrag zur EU-Sicherheitspolitik
Russia's attack on Ukraine has revealed the practical effects of EU accession on neutrality: Austria supports the EU sanctions and, for example, has constructively abstained from financing arms deliveries to Ukraine, but allows them to be transported by Austrian territory. This article considers how Austria can contribute to EU security policy, whilst maintaining its status as a neutral country.
KONRAD ADENAUER STIFTUNG
Der Block gegen Russland steht weiterhin: Sondersitzung der 77. Generalversammlung zur Ukraine
On 12 October 2022, at the special session of the United Nations General Assembly on Ukraine, the international community condemned Russia's annexation of the Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia regions in a resolution with 143 states in favour and 35 against. The author argues that the vote has symbolic power and is a signal to Putin that he will not receive support from the Global South any time soon.
INSTITUT DER DEUTSCHEN WIRTSCHAFT
Wirtschaftliche Entwicklung durch Rückschritt - zu den Perspektiven der russischen Volkswirtschaft
The authors argue that the war in Ukraine will have profound geopolitical and economic consequences for Russia. The West has imposed sanctions on the country on an unprecedented scale, largely dissolving decades of economic interdependence. Due to the break with the West, Russia will have to create a development strategy and seek stronger ties with other markets such as China and India.
INSTITUTO ESPANOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATEGICOS
La guerra de Ucrania y la rebelión del Sur global
The war in Ukraine and the rebellion of the Global South
The West has responded to Russia's military aggression with an unprecedented set of sanctions, the effect of which, however, has been reduced by the global south's refusal to align itself with the United States and its closest allies in this regard. According to the author, the struggle between the Western powers and the Russian Federation to try to align the global south in accordance with their strategic designs will be one of the keys that can determine both the outcome of the military conflict and the survival of the Russia of Putin when the war is over.
REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO
Autonomía estratégica y defensa europea después de Ucrania
This analysis reviews the possible implications of the war in Ukraine for European security and defence policy, and in particular the need to move from a paradigm focused on crisis management operations abroad to one focused on territorial defence and deterrence. Recognising NATO's primacy in these areas, it points to the potential of some of the EU's instruments in capability development, technology and arms procurement to enhance its contribution to deterrence and territorial defence. Such a contribution would generally be indirect but strategically and politically significant.
CLINGENDAEL
Under great internal and external pressure, Germany is undergoing a process of soul searching over the direction of its foreign and security policy, the so-called ‘Zeitenwende’. This article considers that even if the watershed in Germany’s foreign and security policy does not meet initial expectations, the shifts could be substantial and likely to have profound implications for the EU and the Netherlands.
ADVIESRAAD INTERNATIONALE VRAAGSTUKKEN
AIV briefadvies: de Oekraine-oorlog als geopolitieke tijdschok
This advisory brief puts forward a set of policy recommendations aimed at helping the Netherlands protect its security policy and socio-economic interests against the background of the war in Ukraine and in the light of changing geopolitical relations.
EUROPEAN INSTITUTE FOR SECURITY STUDIES
How big is the storm? Assessing the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on the eastern neighbourhood
This brief reviews the currently available data to produce a preliminary assessment of how the war has affected the EU’s eastern neighbourhood demographically, geoeconomically and geopolitically. Focusing on the immediate consequences of the conflict, the author argues that Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has reshaped all three levels in the eastern neighbourhood.
BROOKINGS
Russian disinformation in Africa: what’s sticking and what’s not
According to the authors, unlike broader Russian narratives that exploit existing grievances of African audiences, most disinformation does not gain the same traction or attention on Twitter.
EUROPEAN INSTITUTE FOR SECURITY STUDIES
How big is the storm? Assessing the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on the eastern neighbourhood
This brief reviews the currently available data to produce a preliminary assessment of how the war has affected the EU’s eastern neighbourhood demographically, geoeconomically and geopolitically. Focusing on the immediate consequences of the conflict, the author argues that Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has reshaped all three levels in the eastern neighbourhood.
INSTITUTO ESPANOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATEGICOS
Nuevos escenarios en el Ártico: el cambio climático y la guerra de Ucrania
Since the end of the Cold War, cooperation between countries sharing Arctic territory has been the main trend, especially in the environmental and technical fields. This article considers how climate change has highlighted the great opportunities and resources found on Arctic soil, but has also revealed the problematic division of maritime territory, the complexity of which has intensified since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO
La guerra en Ucrania y los conflictos recientes en el espacio post soviético
This paper considers what the war in Ukraine and the recent conflicts in the post-Soviet space represent. Renewed hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh between Armenia and Azerbaijan and on the Kyrgyz-Tajik border, as well as continued tensions in the frozen conflicts in Transnistria (Moldova) and South Ossetia and Abkhazia (Georgia), have put the spotlight back on the post-Soviet space, raising the question of whether the war in Ukraine is the cause of the recent hostilities and whether it could have a domino effect and create further instability in the region.
11.10.2022
GLOBSEC
NATO strategic concept in the shadow of the war
This paper discusses the change in NATO’s approach to Russia since its aggression against Ukraine, the new definition of China, emphasis on hybrid warfare, climate change, and the maintenance of Alliance’s technological edge.
THE HAGUE CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES
This report raises the question of which pathways of intentional or unintentional escalation exist between Russia and NATO as a consequence of the war in Ukraine. By “thinking about the unthinkable” through the exploration of six escalation scenarios, this snapshot identifies preventative policies to avoid escalation to major war, potentially even with nuclear arms.
EUROPEAN COUNCIL OF FOREIGN RELATIONS
No partial measures: how Ukraine can meet the challenge of Russia’s mobilisation
Vladimir Putin’s mobilisation is a sign of desperation. The brief comments on how the Ukrainian armed forces should respond, noting that Ukraine will still need weapons deliveries to help respond to the arrival of thousands of Russian conscripts.
Център за изследване на демокрацията (Center for the Study of Democracy)
Countering the Kremlin playbook in Europe after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
This policy brief claims that policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic must conduct a detailed mapping exercise of Russian influence in European economics and politics in order to assess the extent to which it stymies the development of a concrete and targeted policy strategy.
BROOKINGS
How to respond to Putin’s land grab and nuclear gambit
On September 30, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed agreements illegally incorporating the Ukrainian oblasts of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson into Russia. Putin seeks to create a new geopolitical reality in Europe, one that few, if any, others will accept. According to the author, the West should respond with pointed messaging of its own, some of which has begun.
NOTRE EUROPE - INSTITUT JACQUES DELORS
Cyberattacks in Russia’s hybrid war against Ukraine and its ramifications for Europe
According to this policy paper, although cybersecurity has certainly played a key role in the Ukraine war, this has not unfolded in the way many had feared. Yet, the danger of cyber escalation by Russia should not be underestimated, especially if Russian military operations on the ground are unsuccessful and the Kremlin deems itself cornered.
FONDATION POUR L'INNOVATION POLITIQUE
Quel avenir pour la dissuasion nucléaire ?
With the war in Ukraine, the question of nuclear deterrence has made a spectacular comeback in Europe. This study asks what the new articulation of nuclear and conventional forces in the foreseeable European context can be; and, whether France, as the only nuclear state in the EU, can play a more prominent role in the protection of its partners and allies.
EAST EUROPEAN SECURITY RESEARCH INITIATIVE FOUNDATION
Ukraine − Russia: motivations, potentials, prospects for developing relations
This policy paper explores the current hybrid confrontation, strategic international factors, asymmetric potentials and opportunities, the factor of international support and economic and domestic political factors. It sets out proposals to be taken into consideration in relation to Ukrainian policy in areas such as security, economy, energy, de-occupation and humanitarian aid.
BARCELONA CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
Resiliencia híbrida en épocas inciertas: la guerra de Rusia y la sociedad ucraniana
This article draws two conclusions regarding the ongoing war in Ukraine: on the one hand, Russia's capabilities to wage a hybrid war were overestimated and most of the non-military components of its power were revealed to be deficient; on the other, the magnitude and scope of the Ukrainians' ability to resist was underestimated. Their resistance is based on numerous forms and practices of resilience as a social characteristic of self-sufficiency, autonomy and self-organization.
CHATHAM HOUSE
How likely is the use of nuclear weapons by Russia?
On 21 February, President Vladimir Putin issued what was interpreted as a threat to use nuclear weapons against NATO countries should they interfere in Ukraine. This article discusses what is Putin’s nuclear weapons threat, how NATO would respond to a Russian nuclear attack, whether Russia would use nuclear weapons, and if Ukraine does or did have nuclear weapons.
EGMONT ROYAL INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
Whom are we fighting? Some thoughts related to Russia’s latest mobilization plan
Against the statement showing the tragic essence of Russia as a state and how it is governed and functions, the brief zooms in a little further on Putin’s mobilization plans and the reiteration of its nuclear threat.
INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES
Guerre d'Ukraine: un modèle coréen?
The war in Ukraine raises new questions about the Washington/Beijing/Moscow triangle and the position of Europe as a power. The author notes that the Korean war can help us to measure the moving relationships of the three actors and considers that the lessons that Washington and Beijing will take from the conflict are at the core of the debate, especially for Taïwan.
INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP
Responding to Ukraine’s displacement crisis: from speed to sustainability
Tens of millions of Ukrainians have fled fighting since Russia invaded in February. As the war continues, local volunteer networks, aid organisations and the Ukrainian state are stretched thin trying to respond to the mounting humanitarian crisis. According to this briefing, delivery of financial support next to a finely calibrated division of labour among the state, local civil society and international organisations to ease the humanitarian toll is vital to Ukraine's survival.
SWEDISH INSTITUTE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES
The Ukrainian refugee situation: lessons for EU asylum policy
This analysis seeks to explore and explain the main differences between the EU’s management of the Ukrainian refugee emergency and other major refugee arrivals in the recent past. It then considers the possible consequences of the Ukrainian refugee situation for the evolution of the common European asylum system and the migration pact.
CLINGENDAEL
Long-term protection in Europe needed for millions of Ukrainian refugees
This paper suggests that European countries need to start preparing for the long-term integration of Ukrainian refugees. This means that a transition is needed from crisis management and a short-term orientation to more long-term policy and planning for structural capacity and support, both at European and member state level.
THE GERMAN MARSHALL FUND OF THE UNITED STATES
Designing Ukraine’s recovery in the spirit of the Marshall plan
In an effort to stimulate the debate about a meaningful Western plan for Ukraine’s recovery, this paper provides recommendations for donor governments and international institutions. It limits itself to the challenges of designing and implementing such a plan and does not comment on Ukraine’s National Recovery Plan.
CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
Rebuilding Ukraine’s agriculture sector: emerging priorities
Ukraine’s agricultural transportation and storage infrastructure, fertilizer industry, and labor force have experienced varying levels of damage since the war broke out. The authors analyse the situation in Ukraine’s agriculture sector and formulate recommendations in the context of future efforts to rebuild the country.
FORUM FOR RESEARCH ON EASTERN EUROPE AND EMERGING ECONOMIES (FREE NETWORK)
Foreign aid to Ukraine: lessons from the literature on strategic foreign aid
Ukraine is currently receiving substantial inflows of foreign aid from western donors to help the country withstand the Russian aggression. This brief discusses the academic literature that has analysed the existence and consequences of strategic motivations behind aid flows more generally, and draws some preliminary insights for the case of Ukraine.
CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
Thinking through security and coordination aspects needed for Ukraine’s reconstruction
The article focuses on conditions needed to ensure Ukraine’s reconstruction and addresses key questions which the international community and the Ukrainian government need to take into account in order to implement a successful security framework and to prepare for postwar reconstruction.
EUROPEAN COUNCIL OF FOREIGN RELATIONS
In Europe’s defence: why the EU needs a security compact with Ukraine
This policy brief considers why the EU should conclude a security compact with Ukraine. Such an agreement would help the country defend itself against Russia and maximise the effectiveness of European military support.
ILKO KUCHERIV DEMOCRATIC INITIATIVES FUNDATION
Ukrainians' European integration aspirations: from ambivalence to expression
The author analyses how the pro-European orientations of Ukrainians have changed over the past decade and what caused these changes.
FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG
What's changed since February 24th? A window of opportunity for Greek foreign policy
The author highlights the “window of opportunity” that is being created for Greece and the regional dimension of its foreign policy since the war in Ukraine has begun, with its role and position being enhanced, perhaps for the first time since the end of the Cold War. As such, Greece was right to take a clear stance in favour of Kyiv, avoiding the ‘grey-area’ neutrality that could be damaging to a pro-status quo country.
CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
Is the United States running out of weapons to send to Ukraine?
The article summarizes the status of key weapons and munitions as a result of transfers from US to Ukraine and presents the risks and challenges relating to the continuation of this support.
FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG
War in Ukraine and its impacts on Mongolia's economy
This paper explains how the war in Ukraine is affecting Mongolia’s economy and concludes with thoughts on how the impact will worsen the country’s economic situation and what could mitigate the worst of it. It argues that given Mongolia's geopolitical fate, being caught up in the competition between the West and Russia, there will be undesired impacts on its economy.
CLINGENDAEL
Walking the tightrope towards the EU: Moldova’s vulnerabilities amid war in Ukraine
By simultaneously granting EU candidacy status to Ukraine and Moldova, the EU implicitly acknowledged that the fates of both countries are to a large extent linked and that the EU enlargement process is also a geopolitical instrument. This report analyses different recommendations to prevent Russian destabilization in Moldova in the light of the war in Ukraine.
EAST EUROPEAN SECURITY RESEARCH INITIATIVE FOUNDATION
Black Sea security after Russian invasion of Ukraine: views from Ukraine, Georgia, and Azerbaijan
The paper depicts the views of foreign policy communities in Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Georgia about the future of the Black Sea region and a wider European security after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It indicates some differences among three countries but also potential for more synergies and cooperation in the Black Sea area.
NORSK UTENRIKSPOLITISK INSTITUTT (THE NORWEGIAN INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
Due to Russia and Ukraine being major global producers and cheap suppliers of fertilisers needed for the planting season, the Ukraine conflict has had a direct impact on Africa’s agricultural purchases and seed planting. According to the brief, Norway has an opportunity to lessen the impact of the Ukraine conflict by offering vital support that can strengthen specific response measures in multilateral and bilateral engagements.
14.9.2022
INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES (IFRI)
Le retour de la haute intensité en Ukraine : quels enseignements pour les forces terrestres ?
The Ukrainian battlefield marks the renewal of so-called “high-intensity” warfare. The author notes that it constitutes a major strategic turning point, reversing the contemporary model of wars involving the West. For the Ukrainians, this high-intensity conflict is both political, because it involves their vital interests, and capability-based, mobilizing all of their military means. For Russia, on the other hand, the high intensity is more about capabilities than politics.
INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES (IFRI)
Cercles dirigeants russes : infaillible loyauté au système Poutine ?
Despite the unprecedented sanctions imposed on Russia following Vladimir Putin's decision to invade Ukraine in February, no senior member of Russian ruling circles has defected. This article endeavours to provide some answers as to the reasons for such solidity of the Putinian system, by offering in passing a “photograph” of the current Russian ruling circles.
CARNEGIE EUROPE
Autocracy versus democracy after the Ukraine invasion: mapping a middle way
Russia's invasion of Ukraine will sharpen the divide between democracies and autocracies, but also lead to more realpolitik strategic balancing. A key question raised in this report is what kind of coordination emerges between democracies.
THE GERMAN MARSHALL FUND OF THE UNITED STATES
The defense impact of the Ukraine war on the Visegrád four
Russia’s war against Ukraine is a major strategic challenge for the Visegrád four countries, especially in terms of defense capabilities. The author notes that they all are important transit or destination countries for refugees, and Russian fossil fuels are a major part of their energy mix to varying degrees.
GLOBSEC POLICY INSTITUTE
Ukraine’s recovery after Lugano: first blueprints take shape but quandaries lie ahead
This article analyses the outcome of the high-level discussion at the Ukraine recovery conference, hosted in Lugano in July, on rebuilding and modernizing Ukraine, including the principles and priorities for the recovery process ahead. However, numerous questions about the modalities of support and details of the expected transformation remain to be answered in the future.
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
Six months, twenty-three lessons: what the world has learned from Russia’s war in Ukraine
In this article, a range of experts share the biggest lessons they’ve learned from the crisis and comment on several areas such as the US foreign policy, the US national security, military operations, deterrence, and the global economy.
CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE
Transdniestria, Moldova, and Russia’s war in Ukraine
Russia’s war in Ukraine has put the spotlight on the “frozen conflict” in Transdniestria, the Moscow-backed breakaway part of Moldova that borders southwestern Ukraine. Russia has raised the prospect of using Transdniestria to open a second front against Ukraine and to pressure Moldova. The report notes that such a move would increase the risk of a Russian confrontation with Romania - a NATO member with close ethnic, cultural, and historic ties to Moldova .
EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
Survive and thrive: a European plan to support Ukraine in the long war against Russia
To prevail in that war, the Russian regime must hope this Ukrainian spring will give way to a Russian winter. It wants to make progress on the ground by slowly capturing more territory. But, according to the authors, even as the EU and its member states push back on all these fronts, they should consider more holistically how they will support Ukraine in the long war.
ΙΝΣΤΙΤΟΥΤΟ ΕΞΩΤΕΡΙΚΩΝ ΥΠΟΘΕΣΕΩΝ (FOREIGN AFFAIRS INSTITUTE)
Geopolitics of the war in Ukraine
Τhe report analyses the geopolitics of the Russian invasion of Ukraine as part of inherent Russian revisionism and its implications for regional and global international order. It examines Russian interests and strategic objectives, the geopolitical impact of the invasion and analyzes the military and strategic lessons of the war in Ukraine. It provides three possible military scenarios about the continuation of the war, also addressing the issue of the possible use of nuclear weapons, and concludes with some policy recommendations.
INSTITUT MONTAIGNE
Comment la guerre en Ukraine modifie les équilibres politiques en Russie
A significant part of the Russian political establishment tries to stay away from the conflict in Ukraine, which the power structures (Siloviki) use to strengthen their grip on the country, notes the author. The war also modified the relations between the centre and the periphery, the regions being called upon to provide combatants and contribute to the reconstruction of the areas conquered by the Russian army.
FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG (FRIEDRICH EBERT FOUNDATION)
This report, based on interviews with small farmers, profile experts and representatives of local authorities in Ukraine, summarizes the most typical challenges of agriculture field representatives with the purpose of reducing the negative costs of the war on the food security of Ukraine and in the world.
ISTITUTO PER GLI STUDI DI POLITICA INTERNAZIONALE
Four months of sanctions: the state and prospects of the Russian economy
The author analyses the prospects of Russian economy in the light of the impact sanctions are likely to have in the coming months, observing that all economic sectors are slowing down and the real economic pain for Russia is yet to come.
ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI
The Russian economy is muddling through the sanctions war
The transatlantic campaign of sanctions against Russia is unprecedented in scale and scope and imposes considerable barriers and additional cost to the functioning of the Russian economy. The author claims that Russia currently lacks a strategic plan of economic restructuring and that the future course of events will depend on whether the private sector leads this restructuring with minimal losses or the government imposes its normative prospective, tilting the result farther from economic equilibrium.
CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
Creating a new energy strategy for a post Ukraine war world
This report is a detailed analysis of the new levels of interaction that the US and its strategic partners must address between national security planning and national energy planning.
ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI
According to the paper, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has profoundly altered the outlook for Russia’s energy transition and created uncertainties on the global path towards net zero. Russia’s actions and the Western response are also reconfiguring global energy relations, with profound economic and geopolitical consequences that may, unless managed, undermine international cooperation on the energy transition and slow down progress on climate change mitigation.
EUROPEAN INSTITUTE FOR THE MEDITERRANEAN
La guerra en Ucrania podría reactivar las relaciones entre Europa y el Golfo
The article claims that, to end dependence on Russia, Europe is seeking an energy association with the Gulf countries, but they maintain an ambiguous position in order to exploit their renewed relevance.
INSTITUT JACQUES DELORS
Guerre en Ukraine. Large soutien citoyen à l’action de l’Union européenne
The report comments on the results of two Eurobarometer surveys carried out on the ground in the spring. The results provide an opportunity to take stock of the general attitudes of the citizens of the 27 member states towards the EU, and to assess their reactions to the Russian-led war in Ukraine, a few months after its outbreak.
TERRA NOVA
Un nouveau test pour la solidarité européenne
In a new shock to European unity, the war in Ukraine is testing solidarity within Europe, according to this paper. The author queries whether, after the mistakes of the sovereign debt crisis and the lessons of the health crisis, Europeans will be able to stand together.
ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI
Turkey in the Black Sea: is a balancing act still possible?
This article comments on Turkey's foreign policy in the context of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with a focus on Turkey's efforts towards establishing amicable relations with Russia while being a part of the Western alliance.
THE HAGUE CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES
This paper highlights the multiple motivators and nuances behind India’s strategically ambivalent approach to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, its strategic split between the West and Russia. It also discusses what the BJP’s geopolitical thinking means for European relations with India and other players in the Indo-Pacific going forward.
CHATHAM HOUSE - THE ROYAL INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
UK trade and the war in Ukraine
The UK is less exposed to the direct trade effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine than its European neighbours. However, according to this report, the indirect and longer-term effects of the war on UK trade could still be significant. In the longer term, post-war Ukraine’s future status and trading relationship with the EU could affect the UK, as the process of defining Ukraine’s position with regard to the EU may encourage Brussels to revisit its relations with the UK or even to explore alternative models for other non-member countries on the EU’s periphery.
TERRA NOVA
L’Italie, la Russie de Poutine et l’Ukraine
Depending on the outcome of the elections in Italy on 25 September, Italian policy towards Russia could be affected, and may weaken the alliance of Europeans alongside the Ukrainians. The author proposes an inventory of the Italian political class in the face of the "Russian question" on the eve of the elections.
20.7.2022
本次更新涵蓋的部分主題包括：俄羅斯瓜分烏克蘭的計畫、戰爭和戰後需求、如何進行和平談判、北約與俄羅斯的未來關係、對烏克蘭經濟發展的影響、確保人人享有糧食、德國和歐洲能源供應狀況的變化、如何擺脫冬季能源危機、烏克蘭加入歐盟的漫長而阿拉伯艱辛的道路、避免重建過程中的陷阱、戰爭對亞各國和世界的影響。
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH（東方研究中心）
自2022年5月以來，俄羅斯政府官員越來越頻繁地提及吞併被佔領領土。本文探討了這個設想，分析了俄羅斯為維持對被佔領的頓巴斯和烏克蘭南部的控製而採取的軍事和行政措施，以及其逐步瓜分烏克蘭的計畫。
國際關係與戰略研究所 (IRIS)
根據這篇文章，俄烏戰爭是兩次衝突交會的爆發。首先是俄美對抗，鑑於核威懾的存在，這種對抗迄今已在除軍事領域以外的所有領域有所體現，如今卻找到了「代理」軍隊。其次是自烏克蘭獨立以來，兩種文化和政治理念之間根深蒂固的對抗，這種對抗將烏克蘭分裂成兩個敵對的地緣政治集團（頓巴斯與烏克蘭其他地區）。
全球安全政策研究所
本文闡述了烏克蘭在戰爭期間及戰後面臨的各種需求，並聚焦於其迫切需求：軍事、經濟、人道主義和政治援助。其目的不僅在於概述烏克蘭面臨的巨大需求，還在於為國際援助的流向提供想法。
科爾伯基金會
在過去的爭論演變為將歷史武器化和實際戰爭的當下，這組文章試圖提供歷史方向、背景和建議。
NORSK UTENRIKSPOLITISK INSTITUTT（挪威國際事務研究所）
俄羅斯在烏克蘭的侵略行為促使北約在戰略層面更加重視常規軍事力量。此外，俄羅斯的地位也從2010年被視為潛在的「戰略夥伴」轉變為被視為咄咄逼人的對手。如何既強烈譴責俄羅斯對烏克蘭的侵略行為，也提出未來建立更穩固關係的願景，是北約面臨的關鍵挑戰。
美國和平研究所
俄羅斯可能會向白俄羅斯部署核武器，這可能會改變歐洲的核平衡。
如果普丁的承諾不僅僅是核威懾——自俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭以來，普丁和其他俄羅斯官員一直都在這樣做——那麼這次部署可能會重塑歐洲的核平衡，並增加北約與俄羅斯之間潛在衝突的風險。
美國和平研究所
澤連斯基總統表示，烏克蘭軍隊將俄軍擊退至2月24日的陣地後，烏克蘭將與俄羅斯展開談判。何時以及如何進行談判完全由烏克蘭自行決定。美國和其他盟國可以為烏克蘭提供談判過程中所需的支持。本文將簡要介紹這些支持的具體形式。
卡托研究所
本文探討了美國和歐洲在近期舉行的七國集團峰會和北約峰會上對烏克蘭表達的支持。迄今為止，資金和武器仍在源源不絕地流向基輔。即使是許多指責莫斯科公然侵略的人也認為，盡快結束戰爭至關重要。
西班牙研究學院
Ucrania: ni guerra relámpago, ni paz duradera
作者指出，烏克蘭戰爭的持續對所有相關方都造成了嚴重後果。俄羅斯在烏克蘭的閃電戰已經失敗，透過談判解決衝突似乎遙遙無期。各方在假想的談判桌上的立場根本無法調和。一切跡像都表明，這場衝突將長期持續下去：一場混合戰爭，它將無限期地排除21世紀歐洲實現持久和平的可能性。
觀察者研究基金會
作者概述了烏克蘭戰爭如何以出乎意料的方式改變了全球格局，全球力量分化日益加劇，一方是美國和中國，另一方是美國及其重振的聯盟體系。核戰風險的加劇被認為是所有事態發展中最嚴重的。
DEUTSCHES INSTITUT FÜR WIRTSCHAFTSFORSCHUNG（德國經濟研究所）
烏克蘭戰爭對世界經濟造成了衝擊，對烏克蘭本身也造成了嚴重影響，不僅摧毀了工業，還引發了大規模人口遷移、家庭收入下降以及預算赤字和政府債務增加。隨著戰爭的持續，對經濟的負面影響也將進一步加劇。
巴塞隆納國際事務中心 (CIDOB)
Russia and Ukraine are both major exporters of wheat and other commodities. This article looks at how the Russian war against Ukraine has accelerated the need for a profound transformation of long-distance supply chains and outlines five factors in that transformation : high energy prices; disruptions in the workforce; food protectionism; shortage of fertilisers; and global inflation.
POLSKI INSTYTUT EKONOMICZNY (POLISH ECONOMIC INSTITUTE)
The food supply crisis as a result of the invasion of Ukraine
The report, with help of a sensitivity index, shows which countries are most exposed to the consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. As many as 700 million people live in the countries where food security is a threat as the marked increase in prices has diminished the economic availability of food. Recommendations are given on how to avoid a global food crisis.
STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK (GERMAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL AND SECURITY AFFAIRS)
Wirtschaftssanktionen gegen Russland : internationale Perspektiven und globale Auswirkungen
In response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a Western alliance has imposed drastic sanctions on Moscow. The article points out that not only Russia and the West are directly affected by the far-reaching economic consequences, but that dilemmas also arise for China and India.
SAFE - SUSTAINABLE ARCHITECTURE FOR FINANCE IN EUROPE
The weaponization of global payment infrastructures: a strategic dilemma
The sixth sanction package of the European Union excluded the Russian Sberbank from SWIFT. However, the economic weaponization of global payment infrastructures may backfire on Europe. This paper weighs the advantages and disadvantages joint European and US decision, including the need for policy reforms.
RYTŲ EUROPOS STUDIJŲ CENTRAS (EASTERN EUROPE STUDIES CENTRE)
The authors give an analytical overview of the Belarusian economy, describing the impact of the Western sanctions (April-June).
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
Global sanctions dashboard: Russia default and China secondary sanctions
The authors comment on sanctions and export controls against Russian oil and gas companies. The threat of secondary sanctions against China is also pointed out.
HANNS-SEIDEL-STIFTUNG (HANNS SEIDEL FOUNDATION)
Folgen des Krieges in der Ukraine: wie steht es um die Energieversorgung in Deutschland?
Germany must diversify its sources for energy imports and must no longer be so dependent on a single raw material supplier. This article discusses which options are actually available.
STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK (GERMAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL AND SECURITY AFFAIRS)
Krieg und Hunger – Versorgungsrisiken, Lösungsansätze, Konfliktkonstellationen
The Russian invasion of Ukraine, a major exporter of wheat, is causing supply risks around the world. This article exemplifies how differently individual countries react to the wheat shortage.
DEUTSCHES INSTITUT FÜR WIRTSCHAFTSFORSCHUNG (GERMAN INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH)
The European Union has increased pressure on Russia by enacting a coal embargo. Recent studies show that Germany will be able to substitute Russian supplies with imports from other countries by summer 2022. However, with the looming threat of a Russian gas supply stop, the authors consider that plans must be developed to ensure security of supply.
ZENTRUM FÜR EUROPÄISCHE WIRTSCHAFTSFORSCHUNG (CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN ECONOMIC RESEARCH)
Economic consequences of a sudden stop of energy imports: the case of natural gas in Germany
This analysis draws on different scenarios. In a best-case scenario, Germany might "only" experience a “regular” recession, but in a worst-case scenario, a sudden gas embargo could cause the largest annual GDP loss that (West) Germany has experienced since World War II. Moreover, there are reasons to expect the social consequences of an embargo-caused recession in 2022/23 to be more severe than in the previous two recessions.
ENERGIEWIRTSCHAFTLICHES INSTITUT AN DER UNIVERSITÄT ZU KÖLN (INSTITUTE OF ENERGY ECONOMICS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF COLOGNE)
Szenarien für die Preisentwicklung von Energieträgern: Endbericht
The war in Ukraine and the resulting geopolitical upheavals are changing the conditions for energy supply in Germany and Europe. How will the prices for gas, coal, oil and electricity develop in the medium term? What does that mean for households and industry? This study examines those scenarios and discusses the demand for electricity and gas, the availability of Russian imports and the expansion of renewable energies.
Institute of International and European Affairs
Europe’s long winter: escaping the energy crisis
The authors analyse the impact on energy prices in Europe after the Russian invasion and the Covid-19 pandemic. It gives general recommendations and also shows the importance of a second electricity interconnector between Ireland and France.
Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies - European University Institute
The Russian invasion has brought a lot of geopolitical tensions. This policy brief gives a summary that addresses three issues for the ‘New State of the World’: key characteristics; policy priorities in the near and longer term; and process and governance.
TERRA NOVA
Pourquoi la guerre en Ukraine risque d’affaiblir l’Europe dans le monde
Russia's war against Ukraine has already had and will have even more international repercussions in the coming months. Tensions on energy and food prices, and even the risk of shortages, will have particularly brutal effects on the already fragile countries of the South.
EUROPEAN THINK TANKS GROUP (ETTG)
The European Green Deal and the war in Ukraine: addressing crises in the short and long term
本政策簡報認為，《歐洲發展協議》（EGD）對於引導歐盟及其夥伴走上永續發展道路至關重要，也是應對短期和長期多重危機的關鍵。此外，成功實施《歐洲發展協議》有助於歐盟渡過戰爭衝擊，同時促進不讓任何人、任何國家落後的永續發展。
WISSENSCHAFTSZENTRUM BERLIN FÜR SOZIALFORSCHUNG（柏林社會科學研究中心）
本文作者分析了歐盟成員國在 2020 年之前在聯合國大會上的所有發言，以了解在俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭之前，它們是否對俄羅斯表現出了足夠的明確立場。
貝塔斯曼基金會
透過授予烏克蘭（以及摩爾多瓦共和國）候選國地位，歐盟27國改變了政策方向：從鄰裡關係轉向擴大。這種集體共識有可能增強歐盟的實力。作者認為，最終結果取決於布魯塞爾以及現有和潛在新成員國的政治意願。
STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK（德國國際與安全事務研究所）
歐洲理事會已授予烏克蘭歐盟候選國地位。儘管政治勢頭強勁，但加入歐盟的道路依然漫長而艱辛。本文將探討歐盟和烏克蘭在準備加入歐盟以及最終加入歐盟的過程中所面臨的挑戰。
歐洲之友
重建烏克蘭：或許不是馬歇爾計劃，但肯定需要馬歇爾計劃的資金。
作者指出，烏克蘭的重建將是一項浩大的工程，至少需要十年。鑑於烏克蘭本身無力負擔重建費用，就像它無力供應武器一樣，捐助界必須事先建立一套完善的審核和程序，以確保避免大型建設計畫中常見的陷阱。即使在第一筆歐元或美元到位數年之前，為烏克蘭制定一項類似「馬歇爾計畫」的援助方案，也能在提振民眾士氣、維護社會凝聚力和增強抵抗意志方面發揮同樣重要的作用。
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH（東方研究中心）
烏克蘭戰爭強烈引發了人們對土耳其國際地位的關注。本文將探討安卡拉對戰爭各方的政策，以及土耳其國內的政治經濟情勢。
法國國際關係學院 (IFRI)
俄羅斯對烏克蘭的戰爭對中亞各國（哈薩克、吉爾吉斯、烏茲別克、塔吉克和土庫曼）產生了直接影響。在俄羅斯入侵初期，所有中亞國家都採取了中立立場，但這種立場在哈薩克、烏茲別克以及吉爾吉斯逐漸發生了變化。
STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK（德國國際與安全事務研究所）
拜登平衡－烏克蘭發起，俄羅斯與俄羅斯交戰：Ziele、Szenarien、Optionen
拜登政府的算計似乎是想給普丁一個選擇：要嘛進行嚴肅的和平談判，要嘛發動一場可能持續數年、需要俄羅斯全國動員的戰爭。本文指出，這項算計尚未奏效。據美國情報部門稱，普丁正準備打一場曠日持久的戰爭，他預期自己屆時將更有意願和能力應對挑戰，而美國和歐盟的決心會因經濟困境而動搖。
STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK（德國國際與安全事務研究所）
本文認為，俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭暴露了權力轉移時代下的地緣政治斷層。這導致安卡拉普遍認為，土耳其如今在塑造正在形成的多極世界秩序中佔據關鍵地位，而區域大國的角色將至關重要。
美國和平研究所
為了因應俄羅斯的侵略，應該投資非洲：與非洲建立跨大西洋夥伴關係能夠長期鞏固民主和全球秩序。
當前世界民主和法治面臨的挫折包括普丁總統對正在走向民主化的烏克蘭發動無端入侵，以及非洲一些因經濟困境和公民空間萎縮而國力衰弱的國家發生的一系列軍事政變。作者認為，烏克蘭危機凸顯了投資建立一個更穩定、民主和繁榮的非洲的緊迫性。
卡內基國際和平基金會
俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭殘酷地提醒世界——尤其是西方——硬實力依然重要，運用軍事手段改變政治現實並非遙遠的過去。作者指出，對中東和北非國家而言，這種情況已經持續了幾十年，它們對烏克蘭戰爭的回應通常是保持中立，追求自身利益。
布魯塞爾治理學院
世界秩序的改變要求各國政府調整政策。而有效調整政策的前提是對變化的性質和程度做出準確判斷。這份報告指出，新冠疫情持續數年、美國從阿富汗撤軍以及俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭等事件，都對世界秩序的變化做出了「英雄式」的解讀，但這或許並非制定政策的最佳依據。
布魯金斯學會
作者評論了美國人在烏克蘭戰爭中的行為，以及他們即使面臨更高的能源成本和更高的通貨膨脹，也準備好支持烏克蘭的意願。
美國和平研究所
在今年秋季於埃及舉行的下一屆氣候大會召開前夕，西方領導人最好多傾聽非洲人民的聲音，並以更細緻入微的視角看待他們的能源前景，同時兼顧氣候目標。至關重要的是，這有助於填補歐洲的能源缺口，並充實非洲的財政收入。
ÖSTERREICHISCHES INSTITUT FÜR INTERNATIONALE POLITIK（奧地利國際事務研究所）
西巴爾幹地區的俄羅斯：歐盟前區的莫斯科阿蓋倫 (gefährliches Agieren Moskaus)
本文以烏克蘭戰爭為背景，探討俄羅斯作為西方自由民主國家競爭對手在西巴爾幹地區的角色，並著重分析烏克蘭戰爭對該地區的影響。
2022年6月30日
本次更新涵蓋的部分主題包括：俄羅斯的網路攻擊、烏克蘭的IT軍隊、戰場上無人機的使用、難民援助和保護服務的數位工具、社群媒體戰的演變、烏克蘭加入歐盟的申請、戰爭對歐洲央行的影響、加強美國和北約的防禦態勢、普丁將小麥武器化、世界糧食系統面臨的壓力以及社會動盪的風險。
戰略與國際研究中心
雖然烏克蘭衝突並非首例涉及網路攻擊的重大衝突，但卻是首例涉及大規模網路行動的衝突。本報告對烏克蘭衝突中的網路行動進行了初步回顧。
蘇黎世聯邦理工學院安全研究中心 (CSS)
烏克蘭的IT大軍是在缺乏清晰結構和成熟計畫的情況下臨時組成的。這支IT大軍出於實際需要而誕生，隨後演變成一種混合型組織，既非民用也非軍用，既非公共也非私有，既非本地也非國際，既非合法也非非法。本報告首次對烏克蘭IT大軍的結構、任務和生態系統進行了全面分析。
歐洲議會智庫
This briefing provides an overview of cyber-attacks concerning Russia's war in Ukraine, also going back to 2014. It also examines counter cyber-attacks, the EU and international response, as well as the European Parliament’s call for stepping up cybersecurity assistance to Ukraine and for making full use of the EU's cyber-sanctions regimes against individuals, entities and bodies responsible for or involved in the various cyber-attacks targeting Ukraine.
FONDATION POUR LA RECHERCHE STRATÉGIQUE (FRS)
The article focuses on the war in Ukraine and the employment of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), commonly known as drones. More specifically, the paper analyses the use of such aerial vehicles by the Ukrainian forces against Russians, taking as an example their functions and effects in the Donbass region.
FONDATION POUR LA RECHERCHE STRATÉGIQUE (FRS)
Quels blindés pour les conflits futurs?
The paper reflects on heavy weapons and necessary changes related to technical and capability aspects, which should be made in the future for the next generation of infantry fighting vehicles (IFV). The different issues, needs and limitations are considered.
GLOBSEC POLICY INSTITUTE
Ukraine Essential: 100 Days Brief
This report, coming over 100 days following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, reflects on central developments and key turning points in the conflict up to the present.
GLOBSEC POLICY INSTITUTE
Interim conclusions on the consequences of the Russian war against Ukraine
According to the author, seven weeks of Russian full-scale war against Ukraine proved the vulnerabilities of the regional and global security architecture, inconsistency of the existing international legal mechanisms, and impotence of the UN and the OSCE. Russian invasion has imminent backlashes. Should they not be addressed immediately, they could jeopardize and reverse the progressive achievements of recent decades.
BROOKINGS
Strengthening the US and NATO defense postures in Europe after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
Even if the war in Ukraine were to end soon, events to date have already transformed the European security environment. Among the main questions that must now be addressed is how the United States and its North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies should strengthen their military postures on eastern NATO territory in the future. The author believes there is now a need for a permanent forward defense posture of modest size and scale, going beyond the tripwire approach NATO has employed in the Baltic states and Poland since roughly 2017.
USIP – UNITED STATES INSTITUTE FOR PEACE
Another way to help Ukraine: prepare now for a peace process
The author explores the conditions and the role of the US and the EU in peace negotiations, setting out two essentials for a peace process.
CIDOB
City diplomacy and the war in Ukraine: towards a municipalism of blocs?
The war in Ukraine has placed international municipalism at risk of confrontation among blocs that could lead to rupture. According to the author, this would not only disable its potential in the area of reconciliation but could also make it irrelevant in the international community as a contributor of solutions to the many crises which, in addition to that of Ukraine, confront the world.
CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
Ukrainian refugees: forced displacement response goes fully digital
Digital tools are being used at historic levels for refugee assistance and protection services to Ukrainian refugees. This report analyses the benefits and risks of deploying digital technologies at each stage of a refugee’s journey.
INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES
Quelle stratégie pour l’aide civile en Ukraine ?
Ukrainian institutions have overall withstood the shock of the war: the central government and local authorities benefit from a real legitimacy and a solid ability to govern. In this context, according to this study, priority should be given to strengthening the existing institutional system rather than creating new institutions or introducing international NGOs.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Research for REGI Committee: cities and the Ukrainian refugees
This briefing summarises the implications of the influx of refugees from Ukraine for European cities, and how cities can navigate challenges to continue being a positive factor in the support of Ukraine. The briefing is based on official sources and expert commentaries, including from national experts, and it is written in the context of the study ‘Social challenges in cities’.
CIGI
Social media warfare is being invented in Ukraine
When governments have “market power” in information space, social media appears to be a very powerful tool for shaping public opinion. When information space is contested there is a pitched battle being waged to set the narrative. How that battle will conclude, which side’s memes and narratives take root in which parts of the world, is as yet unclear. This article notes that the tactics and methodologies are evolving, and we are all witting or unwitting participants through our engagement with social media.
EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
Peace versus justice: the coming European split over the war in Ukraine
The ECFR’s research shows that, while Europeans feel great solidarity with Ukraine and support sanctions against Russia, they are split about the long-term goals. They divide between a “Peace” camp (35%) that wants the war to end as soon as possible, and a “Justice” camp that believes the more pressing goal is to punish Russia (25%).
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES)
Ukraina: od dekomunizacji do derusyfikacji (Ukraine: from decommunization to derussification)
The article looks at the process of making a clean break from the Russian legacy in numerous domains, which Ukraine undertook in the wake of Russia's invasion. The derussification includes banning of Russian political parties as well as elimination of Russian language, culture and symbols from public space. It is accompanied by an enhancement of Ukrainian identity and national pride.
REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO ROYAL INSTITUTE)
La humillación de Rusia, factor de división occidental
This article points out that despite the apparent common front, there is a growing divide in the West, and especially in Europe, over Russia and the war in Ukraine. Countries in the "field of realism" advocate a ceasefire, believing that Russia should not be allowed to win, but that it should not be humiliated either, because this will not achieve a stable order for the future. On the other hand, those in the "field of justice", want Russia to lose and fall into a situation that makes this kind of aggression and adventurism impossible in future.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
War in Ukraine: implications for the ECB
This document contains a series of papers about monetary issues and the implications for the European Central Bank (ECB) in relation to the war in Ukraine : "And now, the Ukraine shock", "The ECB's normalization path: model-rather than data-driven", "Is this time different? War, supply constraints and the resilience of monetary policy", "The ECB and the Ukraine war: threats to price, economic and financial stability" and "The aggravated monetary policy dilemma".
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Economic repercussions of Russia’s war on Ukraine
This paper provides a weekly digest of recent economic, financial and budgetary decisions and developments regarding Russia's military attack against Ukraine. It also highlights policy recommendations made in the public domain to mitigate any adverse economic, financial and social effects and to support economic recovery in the EU and the Euro Area.
INSTITUT FÜR WELTWIRTSCHAFT KIEL (KIEL INSTITUTE FOR THE WORLD ECONOMY)
The Ukraine support tracker: which countries help Ukraine and how?
This paper presents the “Ukraine Support Tracker”, which lists and quantifies military, financial and humanitarian aid to Ukraine in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war. This fourth version covers government commitments made between January 24 and June 7, 2022 and has a new detailed overview on weapon deliveries. It tracks support by 37 governments, including all G7 and European Union member countries, plus by EU institutions (thus including 38 donors).
GLOBSEC POLICY INSTITUTE
Opinion: Ukraine’s war harvest: new delivery routes
The paper shows that Russia’s war against Ukraine has created an export crisis of similar proportions as the one that occurred during the fall of the Soviet Union. Agriculture has always represented a backbone of Ukraine’s economy, where in 2021 its share of Ukraine’s GDP was more than 10%. In the same year, the sector showed the highest increase in production – 14.4%.
INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS
Although most countries have condemned the Russian invasion, only a minority have nevertheless adhered to the economic sanctions implemented by the major Western economies. In this conflict, it seems that not only the inviolability of the territory is at stake, but also the sanctioning method of Western economies and, by extension, the geoeconomic vision that has governed the world until today.
INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS
The war in Ukraine: more stress on the world food system and risk of social unrest
The war in Ukraine has highlighted the serious structural deficiencies of a global food system. Resilience to the challenges presented by the global food system is increasingly difficult to achieve. In the short term, this author considers it urgent to avoid the increase in famine in fragile regions and to avoid social unrest due to the increase in food prices. In the medium and long term, it is necessary to carry out a profound transformation of the world food system.
ISTITUTO PER GLI STUDI DI POLITICA INTERNAZIONALE
Strategia della tensione e price cap
This article speaks about the risks of creating panic about the gas price rise, which could make the price increase even more, and discusses different solutions to this increment, such as a price cap.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Russia's war on Ukraine: implications for transport
This briefing discusses the impact, which Russia's war has had on transport, including infrastructure damage and major transport disruptions amongst the massive flow of refugees into the EU and neighbouring countries. The sanction packages led to traffic shortages, supply chain bottlenecks and the need to bypass traditional routes, thereby lengthening journey times and increasing costs. The paper reports on the EU actions and further plans to mitigate the negative consequences on transport due to the current situation.
FRIENDS OF EUROPE
We must trash the CAP to counter Putin's 'weaponisation' of wheat
The author states that just as Russia is ‘weaponising’ its grip on the world’s cereals markets, Europe has been pursuing a policy of unilateral disarmament. He states that the European Union urgently needs to re-think its farm policies with the same vigour it is belatedly bringing to defence spending.
RYTŲ EUROPOS STUDIJŲ CENTRAS (EASTERN EUROPE STUDIES CENTRE)
this brief article describes the 3 offers possible for the trio as EU candidate status, potential candidate status and the European perspective.
FRIENDS OF EUROPE
Can Ukraine become a member of the European Union?
This article studies the new EU candidate status of Ukraine which is considered to be the best guarantee of Europe’s future security along with the continuing US presence through NATO and the best way for the EU to remain true to its original purpose of giving the European continent lasting peace.
INSTITUT PRO EVROPSKOU POLITIKU EUROPEUM (EUROPEUM INSTITUTE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY)
The European Union’s position toward Ukraine’s EU membership
Despite Ukraine’s heroic efforts and the mutual desire for membership, the author considers that Ukraine's inclusion in the EU is years away. He discusses some of the pertinent factors, from committing to the EU values of “human dignity, freedom, equality,” to establishing an area of “prosperity and neighbourliness.” The process of transitioning to an EU MS is also considered and compared with the similar process for some other states, particularly Serbia.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Ukraine’s application to join the EU
This note contains links to many international think tanks with information on different aspects concerning Russia's war in Ukraine, such as food security, the militarisation of Russian polar politics and Ukraine's EU candidate status.
REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO ROYAL INSTITUTE)
Los Balcanes Occidentales y la “Comunidad Geopolítica Europea”: una oferta que no se puede rechazar
Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia's request for candidate status to the EU has accelerated the debate about the stalled political expansion of the block. This article considers the issues of whether Ukraine should be rewarded with an "express status" as a candidate country along with Moldova and Georgia, and the proposed establishment of a European Geopolitical Community.
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES
This article considers the Commission’s opinions on the membership applications of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia. A broad geopolitical advance is favourably viewed by most EU citizens and its main international partners, note the authors.
EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
Partnership for enlargement: a new way to integrate Ukraine and the EU’s eastern neighbourhood
The report argues that Russia’s war on Ukraine puts the entire future European order at risk. It is already forcing a profound reconsideration of the EU’s and its neighbours’ interests. To address this, the report suggests that the EU should establish a Partnership for Enlargement that offers Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, and Western Balkans states concrete steps towards deeper integration – and a pathway to eventual membership. This new partnership should include three ‘pillars’: single market integration and the reconstruction of Ukraine; a reinforced commitment to energy security and climate transition; and stronger political cooperation in security matters.
GLOBSEC POLICY INSTITUTE
Will Ukraine join the EU? A special case of strategic importance to the EU
Had the EU leaders not taken a strategic decision in 1976 the future of democracy in Greece would be uncertain as well as its geopolitical orientation. The same applies to Ukraine now.
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
Ukraine edges closer to EU dream despite horrors of Putin's war
According to the author, the simple fact that modern Russia has chosen the path of dictatorship over democracy must shape the West’s response to the ongoing conflict and serve to guarantee maximum EU support for Ukraine’s further integration. Granting Ukraine candidate status is a step in the right direction, but as long as the country is stuck in the geopolitical grey zone, it will remain a target for Russian aggression and a source of international instability.
CARNEGIE EUROPE
Supporting democracy after the invasion of Ukraine
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has altered the security and defense architecture of Europe and raises questions about longer-term trends. According to the authors, it also has the potential to reshape democracy support policies, changing practices of defending and extending democratic values and of interactions with autocratic states.
REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO ROYAL INSTITUTE)
¿“No matarás”?: el papel de la Iglesia Ortodoxa Rusa en Ucrania
This article analyses the role of the Russian Orthodox Church in the war in Ukraine. It has justified and blessed the war the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine, a fact that is producing a new schism in between the Orthodox Churches of the world.
OSCE Network
Russia's war against Ukraine: implications for the future of the OSCE
This publication presents the views of members of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) network of think tanks and academic institutions. It examines the fundamental consequences for the OSCE of Russia's illegal and unjustifiable invasion of Ukraine.
BRUSSELS SCHOOL OF GOVERNANCE
India to profit from the war in Ukraine and the Russia-China Joint Statement
The events in Ukraine have brought a significant foreign policy win for New Delhi. This policy brief puts in perspective the geopolitical position of India, between its long-standing strategic relationship with Russia, its ambition to face of China’s aggressive behaviour within the Indo-Pacific security grouping ‘Quad’, and the attempt by the US and its allies to draw India deeper into the Western camp.
HERITAGE
The U.S. must support Ukraine in a fiscally responsible manner
This articles looks into the execution of U.S. support for Ukraine, calling for it to be done in a strategically sound, fully accountable and fiscally responsible manner, without threatening the US economy and livelihood of everyday Americans. A stable and secure Europe is in America’s interest, and contributions to Ukrainian self-defense make sense.
JIIA – THE JAPAN INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
The Ukraine crisis and its impact on Turkey and the Middle East
This research report discusses specifically how the regional states have responded to, and have been impacted by, the crisis, with a particular emphasis on Turkey, which is in a unique position vis-à-vis the war.
NUPI – THE NORWEGIAN INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
The Ukraine war and food security: consequences for Norway’s partner countries
This brief examines how Norwegian partner countries’ food security is affected by the war; the list of partners includes Tanzania, Ghana, Indonesia, Mozambique, Palestine, Mali, Somalia, and Uganda.
15.6.2022
Russia’s political calculations after 100 days of conflict; Zelensky’s change of approach towards Russia: from soft touch to firm hand; Russia's war on Ukraine and related reflections on European security, neutrality and strategic orientation; proxy war or not, Ukraine shows why moral hazards matter; sanctions, conflict and democratic backsliding: a user's manual; and the untold environmental consequences of the Ukraine war, are some of the topics discussed in this update.
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES)
Ukraine: 100 days of existential war
The commentary looks at 100 days of effective resistance of Ukrainians and the attitude of president Zelensky. It also discusses the impact of the Russian invasion on the Ukrainian economy as well as predictions of a long war.
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES)
Moscow’s long war: Russia’s political calculations after 100 days of conflict
The article examines limited military successes of Russia in Ukraine and Moscow's tactics to achieve its political and military goals, i.e. the presumed minimum territorial gain and the systematic destruction of Ukraine.
CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
Russia’s ill-fated invasion of Ukraine: lessons in modern warfare
This analysis examines lessons from Russian air, ground, cyber, and other domains following Moscow’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES)
The commentary focuses on the military situation in Ukraine, analysing subsequent phases of the invasion in terms of tactics, equipment and human and material losses of both armies. It also discusses Ukrainian and Russian perspectives for next stages of the war.
POLSKI INSTYTUT SPRAW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (THE POLISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
Walka o sprawiedliwość: kroki prawne Ukrainy w obronie przed rosyjską agresją (Fighting for justice: Ukraine's legal defence against the Russian aggression)
By initiating legal proceedings against Russia at international courts, Ukraine is trying to raise political costs for the Russian aggressor as well as to increase the diplomatic pressure to stop the war. The paper examines the chances of the order by the International Court of Justice being enforced as well as the role of Poland and other countries in supporting Ukraine's legal stance.
ULKOPOLIITTINEN INSTITUUTTI (FINNISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
Zelenskyy’s change of approach towards Russia: from soft touch to firm hand
The paper traces the trajectory of Zelenskyy’s Russia policy from his presidential campaign of 2019 to the present day. It is argued that the evolution of Zelenskyy’s stance towards Russia, from bringing peace to Ukraine by reaching an agreement with Moscow to forging a new course of military resistance, largely followed public demand, which was limiting his space for would-be concessions.
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES
A brutal examination: Russian military capability in light of the Ukraine war
The authors assess the Russian military capabilities. They also analyse the NATO–Russia war games and the correlation of Russian and Ukrainian forces.
BROOKINGS INSTITUTE
The authors explore possible future developments as the war continues. Would the US continue flatly to side with Ukraine, even if it did not agree with the Ukrainian position, or would it press Kyiv to abandon large portions of the country to favour a negotiated settlement? Would the US in effect side with Russia as a way of ending the war? The authors pose these questions not to advocate Ukrainian concessions now or later, but merely to suggest that political, military, and economic considerations may make them inescapable in any serious negotiation.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Russia's war on Ukraine: reflections on European security, neutrality and strategic orientation
This briefing discusses such issues as European security, neutrality and strategic orientation and a certain shift in views and actions brought about by the war in Ukraine, which has shattered long-held views that war was 'a thing of the past' on the European continent. The new security situation has sparked debates in capitals all over Europe on security and defence arrangements, policies and strategic orientation, all of which are addressed in this article.
RAHVUSVAHELINE KAITSEUURINGUTE KESKUS (INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR DEFENCE AND SECURITY)
Russia’s war in Ukraine: large-scale war and NATO
The author compares Ukraine’s military capabilities with those of some allies and cautions against making any hasty conclusions about NATO’s ability to rapidly reinforce and defend its smaller member states in a potential war. He concludes that NATO should deploy its forces and capabilities along the borders of Russia, ready to defend Alliance territory as well as providing all necessary support to Ukraine, enabling it to significantly degrade the Russian forces.
ILKO KUCHERIV DEMOCRATIC INITIATIVES FOUNDATION
Ukraine needs hard security guarantees, NATO membership preferred
The authors claim that Kyiv is carrying the bloody burden of the European war alone, though with significant western support. To prevent Ukraine’s and Europe’s failure in what appears to be a long-term struggle with Russia it is necessary to recognize and accept the necessity of the real security guarantees. It does not mean that Kyiv should refuse the idea of NATO membership. As in the case of highly likely quick accession of Finland and Sweden, Ukraine must have the same possibility to join NATO to counterbalance Russian threats of another war in the future.
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
Proxy war or not, Ukraine shows why moral hazards matter
It is easy to dismiss Lavrov’s claim (of NATO waging a “proxy” war against Russia) as another product of Kremlin myth-making. Yet there is a kernel of truth to it: the Alliance is now engaged in a Cold War-style engagement with Moscow. For the author, whether the US and its NATO partners are in a textbook proxy relationship with Ukraine matters less than the potential consequences if that relationship is not properly managed.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Russia's war on Ukraine: investigating and prosecuting international crimes
Active investigations into alleged core international crimes (which are classified as war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide) have begun, with the involvement of the Ukrainian authorities, the International Criminal Court, and other international organisations. This paper analyses Russian war crimes in Ukraine discussing such aspects as international crime, agents which investigate alleged breaches of international law in Ukraine, the work of Eurojust gathering forensic evidence and evaluation of open source intelligence.
ISTITUTO PER GLI STUDI DI POLITICA INTERNAZIONALE
Le politiche migratorie europee alla prova della guerra in Ucraina
This article analyses the different challenges that EU member states - especially Italy - are facing due to the Ukrainian diaspora during the war, and suggest some solutions the EU block could use.
HERTIE SCHOOL/JACQUES DELORS CENTRE
The short-term economic costs of the war differ dramatically across the EU. This policy brief explores the economic impacts.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Economic repercussions of Russia’s war on Ukraine
This paper provides a summary of recent economic, financial and budgetary decisions and developments following the military attack against Ukraine. It also highlights policy recommendations made in the public domain to mitigate any adverse economic, financial and social effects and to support economic recovery in the EU and the euro area.
EUROPEAN UNION INSTITUTE FOR SECURITY STUDIES
Sanctions, conflict and democratic backsliding : a user's manual
Until the annexation of Crimea led the EU to impose sanctions on Russia in 2014, few Europeans were aware that the Common Foreign and Security Policy entailed the imposition of sanctions. This brief analyses the circumstances in which sanctions are employed, what rationales guide their imposition and what impacts we can expect.
ISTITUTO PER GLI STUDI DI POLITICA INTERNAZIONALE
Polluted to death: the untold environmental consequences of the Ukraine war
The author states that a war’s impact on the environment can significantly increase the number of people affected by hostilities, and also studies the environmental effects of the war in Ukraine: industrialization, nuclear facilities damage, toxic waste emissions and many others.
INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS
La UE y sus amistades «energéticamente» peligrosas. Del gas ruso a las energías renovables chinas
The Ukrainian conflict demonstrates lack of energy security in some EU member states. Many countries support renewable energies. This article considers how changing the dependency of Russian fossil energy for another one might be risky, since many of these energies have Chinese origins, concluding that EU countries must take advantage of the political union to realign its energy security policies.
ЦЕНТЪР ЗА ИЗСЛЕДВАНЕ НА ДЕМОКРАЦИЯТА (CENTER FOR THE STUDY OF DEMOCRACY)
Can Bulgaria survive without Russian oil?
This paper shows how Bulgaria can survive without Kremlin’s oil. The country can get supplies of crude oil and other feedstock from non-Russian sources. Bulgaria can also get refined products if those are needed and can probably do that at a cost that would not be much different from what it pays now for oil and for products.
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES
The EU's response to Russia's war in Ukraine: a transformational moment?
In the first weeks of the war, the EU adopted an impressive series of sanctions and provided over EUR 2 billion of ‘lethal aid’ to Ukraine to help it fight off the invaders, a notion that would have been absolutely unthinkable only a few short months ago. The report concludes that while there have been some positive changes in certain policy areas (such as migration, sanctions, energy and climate), the use of the term ‘game changer’ is as yet unwarranted. The only real exception here is in security and defence policy.
ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI
Why Ukraine (and Moldova) must become EU candidates
In the fourth month of war, European support for Ukraine risks sagging. According to the brief, this includes dropping the ball on Ukraine’s EU membership. It states that denying candidacy would represent a symbolic debacle for Ukraine and for the EU, and a symbolic win for Putin. The Ukraine war presents the opportunity to revive enlargement. This is true for Ukraine, whose resistance to Russian aggression is inextricably tied to the values on which the EU is founded, but it is true beyond Ukraine as well.
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES
The Ukraine war and the new meaning of security guarantees for the Indo-Pacific
The author gives a short analysis as of the 2022 IISS Shangri-La dialogue of 10 June, looking at the profound consequences of the war for Euro-Atlantic security, and queries how – if at all – they will affect the security architecture of the Indo-Pacific.
REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO ROYAL INSTITUTE)
This article highlights the importance for NATO of taking care of the stability, resilience and development of the South, meaning the area from North Africa to Sahel and from the Balkans to the Middle East. This area is especially vulnerable during this time of strategic competition between NATO, Russia and China.
INSTITUT MONTAIGNE
Indian debates on the war in Ukraine: all roads lead to a consensus
The brief discusses the question of debates about the war in Ukraine in India's public domain. It makes two observations: first, only a very small number of actors are interested in the topic, and a certain consensus has quickly emerged regarding the Ukraine crisis. This consensus reflects a widespread view in New Delhi that India now occupies a central position on the political world stage and that it is a balancing power, able to relate equally with all parties to the conflict.
1.6.2022
Insights from Ukraine about escalation in modern war, the Kremlin’s aims and assumptions, starvation as a weapon of war, NATO/ the EU and the return of collective defence, what Putin's war in Ukraine means for the future of China-Russia relations, Russia’s de-dollarization strategy, and how sanctions on Russia might reshape the global financial system are some of the topics covered in the present update.
INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES
Premiers enseignements nucléaires de la guerre en Ukraine
The invasion of Ukraine by the Russian army on 24 February has an undeniable nuclear character. The purpose of this briefing is to analyse the first lessons of this conflict, in the field of power relations between nuclear powers.
STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK
Eine Chronologie der nuklearen Anspielungen Moskaus im Krieg gegen die Ukraine
This report analyses the allusions to nuclear attacks by Russian decision makers and the reactions of the West from mid-February to late April 2022.
CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
The coming storm: insights from Ukraine about escalation in modern war
This paper captures key insights from across these simulations based on two triggering events: a Russian surgical strike on a NATO logistics hub used to provide weapons to Ukraine in southeast Poland; and Russian use of chemical weapons along the Polish border while simultaneously mobilizing to threaten the Baltics.
RAHVUSVAHELINE KAITSEUURINGUTE KESKUS (INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR DEFENCE AND SECURITY)
Russia’s war in Ukraine: the Kremlin’s aims and assumptions
The brief discusses Russia’s war aims. These are not limited to the destruction of Ukraine’s statehood, or even of the Ukrainian nation, its culture and language, but include altering Europe’s security architecture by undermining NATO and the EU. It also evaluates where Russia’s assumptions were right and wrong, as proved by the course of events after 24 February 2022. It concludes that Vladimir Putin’s regime has an inclination for miscalculation and apparently an appetite for future adventures.
BROOKINGS INSTITUTION
The Russia-Ukraine war at three months
The author looks at the different developments noting that the desired outcome to this war would see the Ukrainians forcing a Russian withdrawal or, at a minimum, getting Moscow to agree to a negotiated settlement on terms acceptable to Kyiv. Ensuring that Russia’s aggression fails and that Ukraine achieves one of these outcomes should be primary goals for the West.
ITALIAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL STUDIES
Donbass e oltre: l’autodeterminazione invocata dalla Russia non ha portato diritti
This article analyses the meaning and application of the right of people’s self determination, a propagandistic tool that Moscow has been using to justify its invasion of Ukraine and, especially, Donbass events.
ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI
Beyond the “End of History”: nationalism, liberalism and the war in Ukraine
This paper discusses the different currents and philosophy used from both sides in the Russia-Ukraine conflict such as nationalism and liberalism and analyses them through different examples of historical events. This analysis demonstrates how they become contradictory and clash in between them.
INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS
In this document, man-made famine is defined as a war crime; the purposes it serves are explained, and the example of the current invasion of Ukraine is used to see how this terrible phenomenon, far from being diminished, extends its effects to distant places and times.
BARCELONA CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
The paper focuses on Ukraine as a "viral war" insofar as the big tech platforms have engaged in it. According to the author, the two major global trends of digitalisation and their platforms are measured here: the techno-authoritarianism of Russia and China, and the US model of Silicon Valley.
INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS
This article states that, contrary to what the Kremlin was expecting, the rest of the countries have taken firm positions to defend democracy and freedom; to fight against lies, censorship and manipulation; and to condemn attacks against the media, its staff and infrastructures.
REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO ROYAL INSTITUTE)
Suministro de armas a Ucrania: un problema que ha creado otro
This article explains and analyses the declarations of the US Ministry of Defence about the provision of weapons to Ukraine which seem to reveal that the real intention is to weaken Russia to the point of preventing it from doing the same ever again. It also points to the new fear of a possible reaction by Putin who, seeing his plans contradicted, could escalate the conflict to an even more dramatic dimension.
HERTIE SCHOOL/JACQUES DELORS CENTRE
Missing migrants: lessons from the EU’s response to Ukrainian refugees
The Russian invasion on Ukraine has led to an unprecedented response of the EU to people fleeing the war. This brief analyses how the EU and its member states address the issue of missing migrants.
INSTITUT DER DEUTSCHEN WIRTSCHAFT (IW KÖLN)
Integration durch berufliche Anerkennung für Geflüchtete aus der Ukraine
This report focuses on the potential for integrating Ukrainian refugees into the German labour market and the importance of the recognition of previously acquired qualifications.
ULKOPOLIITTINEN INSTITUUTTI (FINNISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
This paper examines Russia’s dedollarization strategy since 2014. It also analyses the role of Asia on the level of international reserves and trade settlements, and in the build-up of alternative financial infrastructures. It considers the implications of de-dollarization for the US dollar hegemony and the global financial system.
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES)
Slovakia: strategic dilemmas after the Russian invasion of Ukraine
The paper suggests that the government needs to address strategic dilemmas regarding the long-term maintenance of support for Ukraine and its policy against Moscow, including measures to limit the import of Russian raw materials.
CENTRE INTERNATIONAL DE FORMATION EUROPÉENNE
The Russian-Ukraine conflict has had major implications on the energy landscape in Europe and around the world. Europe is dependent on Russia for over a third of its gas supply. The author analyses the five major goals of Germany’s G7 Presidency.
ЦЕНТЪР ЗА ИЗСЛЕДВАНЕ НА ДЕМОКРАЦИЯТА (CENTER FOR THE STUDY OF DEMOCRACY)
Can Bulgaria survive without Russian oil?
This paper shows how Bulgaria can survive without Russian oil. The country can get supplies of crude oil and other feedstock from non-Russian sources. And it can probably do that at a cost that would not be much different from what it pays now for oil and for products.
BRUSSELS SCHOOL OF GOVERNANCE
NATO, the EU and the return of collective defence
Collective defence is back as the main strategic challenge facing Europe’s security architecture. The Strategic Compass, adopted shortly following Russia's invasion of Ukrainian territory, reaffirms the need for an EU security doctrine. The author analyses what the return of collective defence means for NATO and what this evolution means for the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy.
FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN
L’Europe dans la tempête parfaite
The author suggests that the "perfect storm", i.e. a violent one, that the EU is going through, is an opportunity to review certain certainties, to adapt its policies and to conquer the hearts of European citizens a little more, through efficiency and responsiveness.
STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK
Deciphering Turkey’s geopolitical balancing and anti-Westernism in its relations with Russia
The author believes that the war in Ukraine is set to increase the pressure on Turkey’s balancing policy, shed light on the role of anti-Westernism in Ankara-Moscow relations, and reshape Turkey’s relations with Russia and the West.
EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
A question of balance: India and Europe after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
This brief examines the nature and determinants of India’s Russia policy and analyses the consequences the country faces in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It argues that, while India remains dependent on Russia in areas such as arms sales, its partnership with Russia actually began losing value some years ago.
OBSERVER RESEARCH FOUNDATION
Diverging US and Indian approaches to Europe: the problem of Ukraine
The US-India strategic partnership is rooted in the Indo-Pacific region. Nonetheless, developments in Europe, such as the war in Ukraine, have implications for US-India cooperation. According to the author, the Ukraine conflict could distract the US, diverting its attention to Europe, and impede its efforts to build Indian strategic capacity. As differing responses to the war could also create tensions between the two countries, the brief suggests that India and the US must reconcile their approaches to strategic developments in Europe.
THE LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS AND POLITICAL SCIENCE
What Putin's war in Ukraine means for the future of China-Russia relations
This strategic update analyses China’s reaction to, and motivation in implicitly supporting, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It finds that, as long as Putin remains in power, long-term alignment since 2014 and a shared authoritarian world-view will cement closer ties between the PRC and Russian Federation.
STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK
Arktische Implikationen des russischen Angriffskrieges
The paper takes a look at the implications the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine has for the cooperation in the Arctic region.
BARCELONA CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
Ukraine's invasion affects food trade in a global food system centred on globalisation and corporatisation of value chains. The text focuses on the impact on the Middle East as a grain importer unable to be self-sufficient and with differences between oil-exporting countries and others with less prosperous economies.
18.5.2022
Why diplomacy should still be used in the Ukraine war, if the West had overestimated Russia's military capacity, how the use of information could affect the cohesion of Russia and of the West in the medium term, how EU energy policy should be adapted to serve EU geopolitical goals, the production and export of food from Ukraine during the war with Russia, the winners and losers of the sanctions war, smart sanctioning Russian oil and gas, the impact of the war in Ukraine on the transatlantic relationship are some of the topics discussed in this edition.
INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES
The war in Ukraine : more Western aid and fear of escalation
The article comments on the US and NATO policy regarding the war and the prevention of a Russian victory, including the possible pressure on Israel to join the international measures.
INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS
Las otras guerras del conflicto en Ucrania: las luchas internas en Kiev y Moscú
In this document the author describes the internal wars that are happening in the power centres of Moscow and Kiev as a consequence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
Is diplomacy between Russia and the West still possible?
The war is likely to stretch on for some time. The article analyses why diplomacy should still be used.
THE LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS AND POLITICAL SCIENCE
NATO’s resilience: the first and last line of defence
This Strategic Update makes proposals towards ensuring that attempts to strengthen resilience within NATO deliver practical results. The recommendations are reached by answering the question of what resilience is, analysing NATO’s evolving role in issues of national resilience among its members, and outlining the political challenge of setting and meeting resilience objectives.
BRUSSELS SCHOOL OF GOVERNANCE
European strategic responsibility must focus on Russia
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine presents a new political reality in which the European countries should focus on “strategic responsibility” rather than “strategic autonomy” to defend their continent. This policy brief argues that the Europeans should conceive their efforts in three steps: (1) military mobility, (2) resilience, and (3) enhanced deterrence against Russia.
INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS
Is Volodymyr Zelensky the necessary hero or not?
The author of this article claims that the war in Ukraine has given Zelensky a kind of hero aura. However, wanting to maintain the uniqueness of this constitutive moment unceasingly and at great cost to Ukraine without allowing the stability of a possible peace to be achieved could undermine his heroic status.
REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO ROYAL INSTITUTE)
Lecciones aprendidas sobre la (in)capacidad de las fuerzas armadas rusas en Ucrania
This article claims that, in spite of the apparently high quality military equipment that Russia seemed to possess at the beginning of the war, it has been unable to defeat Ukraine. It might be that the West had overestimated Russia's military capacity, its weaknesses seem to exceed its virtues and only nuclear arms seem to support its capacity of dissuasion.
CENTRAL ASIA-CAUCASUS INSTITUTE
Former Soviet states are distancing themselves from their old imperial master
This article exposes that for many of Russia’s neighbours, the war in Ukraine has accelerated the process of breaking out of Moscow’s orbit and abandoning loyalty to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime. While governments from Moldova and Georgia to Kazakhstan are distancing themselves from Putin’s offensive in Ukraine, the war is also prompting a deeper reexamination of the meaning of the past in former Soviet territories.
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES)
Propaganda masowego rażenia. Rosyjska telewizja w obliczu wojny
The article examines Russia's propaganda machine, its tools and channels, arguing that in the light of Russia’s underwhelming military performance in Ukraine and the negative impact of sanctions on the country's economy, Russian state media face a key challenge: to maintain citizens' support for Kremlin and the invasion.
ITALIAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL STUDIES
Wounded but not broken: Russia's civil society in times of war
The article informs that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to increased oppression against opposition activists, NGOs, and journalists within the country. Civil society organizations are trying to survive under the new political and economic conditions, with many activists and experts fleeing Russia.
BROOKINGS INSTITUTE
Interim security insights and implications from the first two months of the Russia-Ukraine war
While Russia’s significant losses in this war will degrade its ability to conduct large scale offensive operations against NATO in the short term, the authors consider that it is too soon to write off the medium to long-term threat posed by Russia. The article calls on NATO leadership to use the knowledge about Russia’s degraded military readiness as well as the poor command and control to enhance the alliance’s conventional deterrence posture.
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
Putin’s imperial war: Russia unveils plans to annex southern Ukraine
Kremlin-appointed officials in Russian-occupied Kherson have confirmed plans to annex the region and incorporate it into the Russian Federation. The announcement underlines the expansionist imperial agenda that is driving Putin’s war while highlighting his intention to extinguish Ukrainian independence and redraw the map of Europe by force. However, many voices in the international arena seem to believe some kind of negotiated settlement remains possible. For the author, this is dangerous wishful thinking.
BRUSSELS SCHOOL OF GOVERNANCE
The war in Ukraine, the strategic compass, and the debate over EU strategic autonomy
The author notes that the war in Ukraine has concentrated the European publics’ attention on the necessity for defence capabilities of high-intensity conventional warfare, and not just peacekeeping or maritime patrol missions. This kind of “geopolitical awakening” should help EU leaders deflect what had been a building crisis for European defence firms. The Strategic Compass presents a variety of terms to describe where it wants the EU to go next.
DEUTSCHE GESELLSCHAFT FÜR AUSWÄRTIGE POLITIK (GERMAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS)
Using information to influence the Russian war in Ukraine
On the basis of future scenarios for the war in Ukraine, this brief explores how the use of information could affect the cohesion of Russia and of the West in the medium term. The four possible variations of Russian/Western cohesion – high/high, low/high, high/low, low/low – indicate how each side would define the outcome of the conflict. These possible outcomes, in turn, generate lessons about how a liberal West might use information to tip the scales on an autocratic Russia.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Russia's war on Ukraine: the situation of LGBTI people
The paper deals with the situation of LGBT people as a result of the war in Ukraine. According to the authors, with each passing day, the chaos engendered by the war increases the risk of violence and exploitation exponentially, in particular for the most vulnerable, including women, children, Roma people, and members of the lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and intersexual (LGBTI) community.
FOUNDATION FOR EUROPEAN PROGRESSIVE STUDIES
Builders of progress: the war in Ukraine through the eyes of youth
The policy brief analyses the results of a survey of 18-38 year-olds in France, Germany, the UK, Italy, Spain, Poland and Romania on their views on the invasion of Ukraine. Among the findings are : a fear by a majority that the conflict will spread within the EU; belief that EU countries should spend more on their military and should speed up the transition to renewable energy; and support by almost half for the creation of an EU army.
INSTITUT DE RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES ET STRATÉGIQUES
The war unleashed by Russia against Ukraine is expected to have lasting political and strategic repercussions. It is also fraught with consequences for religious actors, due to the weight of Slavic orthodoxy in the ideological apparatus built by Putin, and the long-standing support, and strengthened in recent weeks, by the Moscow Patriarchate for the Russian government.
INSTITUT DE RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES ET STRATÉGIQUES
Les apories de la politique du Saint-Siège en Ukraine
It was on 3 May 2022 that the Pope took the decision to criticize Patriarch Kirill of Moscow for his attitude to the conflict and publicly denounced Putin's refusal to accept his proposal for mediation. This brief aims to qualify the place and scope of the Pope's action in the war in Ukraine.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Russia's war on Ukraine: the risk of trafficking of human beings
The article analyses the increased risks of human trafficking due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has forced millions of people, mostly women and children, to flee the country or they have become displaced within Ukraine's borders. The chaos generated by the conflict has exponentially increased the risk of human trafficking and exploitation, especially of the most vulnerable persons.
INSTITUT JACQUES DELORS
Stop feeding the bear : the case for a smart embargo on Putin’s oil and gas
This brief aims to shed light on the geopolitical context that Europe faces with Putin’s second invasion of Ukraine, and how EU energy policy should be adapted to serve EU geopolitical goals. After briefly summarising the last 30 years of Ukrainian history, the current state of the war is outlined. Thereafter, the vital role of fossil fuel money for the Russian war effort is underlined, before suggesting that an embargo on Russian oil and gas exports is probably an inevitable outcome.
THE HAGUE CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES
The European tank storage sector 2050 and beyond
As the world is aiming to reach carbon neutrality by 2050 and beyond, policy support, international relations and the development of new technologies are key determinants of what the next decades will look like. This paper seeks to distinguish long-term trends for energy infrastructures by analysing technological developments against the background of global climate ambitions.
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES)
Production and export of food from Ukraine during the war with Russia
Despite the war, Ukraine has managed to start this year’s sowing campaign, although the areas cultivated will be up to 30% smaller than in 2021. The article identifies some related problems: the risk of confiscating grains by Russian occupiers, a fuel shortage and the blockade of ports on the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov through which the vast majority of food has been exported.
POLSKI INSTYTUT SPRAW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (THE POLISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
Impact of the war in Ukraine on the debate on the future of agriculture in the EU
The war in Ukraine has sharpened the debate about the future of agriculture in the EU. The revision of targets and the timetable of the green transition is advocated by big producers while environmentalists urge its speed up. In the face of political and economic instability, the majority of Member States are reducing their ambitions for environment-friendly reforms of the agricultural sector.
ITALIAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL STUDIES
Winners and losers of the sanctions war
The authors analyse the possible consequences the sanctions on Russia will have on other countries worldwide. Their conclusion is that the “economic war” between the West and Russia will lead to changes in the geography of global supply chains and cross-border payments: as new actors are bound to emerge, Beijing is likely to benefit the most from this new economic order.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Monetary policy issues in the context of the war in Ukraine
This paper focuses on problems related to monetary policy issues in the context of the invasion of Ukraine. Sanctions are expected to have a significant impact on price stability, and possibly financial stability, in the euro area. In addition, the effective implementation of EU sanctions, targeting the Russian financial and capital markets, are in the hands of the European financial sector. All this has had and will have an impact on the operational implementation of the monetary policy and payments systems bringing new challenges.
WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
Conflict, sanctions and the future of world trade
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has been met with unprecedented trade and other economic sanctions. This white paper describes five scenarios in this context of geopolitical tensions.
BRUEGEL
Cutting Putin’s energy rent: ‘smart sanctioning’ Russian oil and gas
The most efficient way for Europe to sanction Russian energy would not be an embargo. This paper argues that infrastructure bottlenecks prevent Russia from selling all the oil it wants to bring to market, even at lower prices. Europe can exploit this dependency by offering to buy Russian oil and gas only at a substantial discount. One way to do this is through an import tariff.
FORUM FOR RESEARCH ON EASTERN EUROPE AND EMERGING ECONOMIES (FREE NETWORK)
The debate about economic sanctions as a tool of foreign policy is often restricted to a binary question of whether they work or not. According to the brief, there is ample support in the literature studying sanctions to say that this question is too simplistic. Even if they do not produce immediate success in reaching the main aim of the sanction policy, they do cause damage, in many dimensions, and such damage is non-negligible.
REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO ROYAL INSTITUTE)
Efectos económicos y geopolíticos de la invasión de Ucrania
This analysis revises the economic and geopolitical effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with special emphasis on the energy markets, inflation and the realignment that is happening in the international system and in the economic international organisations.
DEUTSCHE GESELLSCHAFT FÜR AUSWÄRTIGE POLITIK (GERMAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS)
This brief suggests that Germany and Europe must strive for rapid independence from fossil fuels from Russia. Missing the national climate targets due to a delayed phase-out of coal threatens to have devastating effects worldwide and, through associated climate changes, could trigger new conflicts.
ENERGIEWIRTSCHAFTLICHES INSTITUT AN DER UNIVERSITÄT ZU KÖLN (INSTITUTE OF ENERGY ECONOMICS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF COLOGNE)
Impact of lacking gas supplies from Russia on security of supply
Against the background of the war in Ukraine, a possible complete shutdown of gas supplies from Russia, either triggered by the EU or by the Russian side, has become the focus of public and political interest. The objective of this brief analysis is to quantify the potential supply gap over the course of the year in a general manner, without explicitly modeling gas flows.
UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE
The Ukraine war is deepening global food insecurity — What can be done?
The author analyses our interconnected world and its consequences: the food insecurity and conflict challenges.
RYTŲ EUROPOS STUDIJŲ CENTRAS (EASTERN EUROPE STUDIES CENTRE)
Overview of events and processes in EU countries and UK in Q1 2022
In April 2022, it was announced that part of the US funding for military infrastructure development would be allocated to the UK. Britain has also announced that it will freeze the assets of Russia’s largest bankn stop all planned investments in Russia and will reinforce its defence assistance to Ukraine with a new support package worth £100 million. The brief analyses also measures taken by other EU member states in the context of the war in Ukraine.
INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR MIGRATION POLICY DEVELOPMENT
Could disruptions to Eastern European wheat spur displacement in Africa?
The author analyses the dependence on Russian and Ukrainian wheat. The majority of African countries are highly dependent on imports of basic food items for their survival.
THE LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS AND POLITICAL SCIENCE
ASEAN: Seeing the Russian invasion of Ukraine through a glass darkly
Ahead of the ASEAN special summit on 12-13 May in Washington D.C., this strategic update confronts the dichotomy between ASEAN’s chartered principles on territorial integrity and the disunity of individual member states’ responses to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
ITALIAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL STUDIES
How the Western-Russian confrontation will shake the Middle East
This article considers that regardless of how things play out in Ukraine over the near-term, it appears all but certain that Russia and the West will find themselves locked in a protracted confrontation for years to come. Syria and Iran offer useful test cases for assessing what to expect.
THE GERMAN MARSHALL FUND OF THE UNITED STATES
The impact of the war in Ukraine on the Transatlantic Relationship
The article explores the implications of the invasion of Ukraine for the Transatlantic Relationship, including aspects such as the economic impact and the role of China. It highlights the possibility that a severe economic recession in the USA due to the effects of the war will favour the election of a president with nationalist, unilateralist, and EU- and NATO-critical views
UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE
Russia’s Ukraine war could offer chance to resolve South Caucasus conflicts
The author analyses the limits of Russian hard power. It focuses on the frozen conflicts” states in the South Caucasus: Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia, and between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh.
4.5.2022
Now in the third month of the war in Ukraine, think tank assessments include the failure to deter Russian aggression and the ideology behind it, lessons from previous wars, the sea change in Europe’s security order, Putin’s repressive media policy, the framework for prosecuting war crimes, economic implications for the EU, the prospects for reducing energy dependence on Russia and the impact on the transition to clean energy, tracking current support for Ukraine, its reconstruction needs, and the implications of the war for the Southern Mediterranean countries, the Eastern Partnership, India, Syria, Moldova, Turkey and Taiwan.
STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK
Failing to deter Russia’s war against Ukraine: the role of misperceptions
This analysis argues that clarifying why the deterrence efforts of the West – the US and the EU - did not work as expected could provide useful insights for building more effective strategies to stop Russia’s aggression.
EUROPEAN POLICY CENTRE
War has returned to Europe: three reasons why the EU did not see it coming
Before 24 February Europe decidedly defined itself as ‘post-war’. The article suggests that in order to create a future that stops perpetuating the past, the EU and its member states must start to critically contemplate how they got into the current predicament and change course. The author outlines three lessons that could be learnt from the past.
INSTITUTE MONTAIGNE
Ukraine: Putin's war to change the world
The article analyses the recent actions and approach taken by Putin as well as paradigm shifts in Russian politics which have led to the current situation in Russia and Ukraine. The author also speculates on Putin's personality change and attempts to find an answer to the question: Which Vladimir Putin are we dealing with now?
INSTITUTE MONTAIGNE
From Sarajevo to Mariupol: what the Yugoslav wars can teach us about Ukraine's fate
The article presents a comparison between the former Yugoslavia and the war in Ukraine - the siege of Ukrainian cities is reminiscent of Vukovar and Sarajevo, while Butcha has been described as "the new Srebrenica". While such comparisons can help guide our thinking, the author warns that they come with the risk of seeing parallels where there are none, creating an excessively skewed representation of the Ukrainian war.
UTRIKESPOLITISKA INSTITUTET (SWEDISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
Ukraine as Putin’s ideological project
The author analyses Putin’s authoritarian political rule.
THE HAGUE CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES
How wars end - war terminations: insights for the Russia-Ukraine war
The authors consider what we can learn from war terminations in the past: how long they last, how they end, whether they relapse, what factors contribute to their end, and what this implies for the Russia-Ukraine war.
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES
War in Ukraine, where quantity as well as quality matters
While Russian equipment losses are greater, Ukrainian losses could be critical. The author looks into the impact of the losses in equipment and the immediate needs.
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES)
Niemieckie dostawy broni dla Kijowa – kontrowersyjny kurs SPD
The article analyses the evolution of the German government's stance on the supply of weapons to Ukraine and examines the strong political and public pressure the SPD and its allies are facing in this regard.
GERMAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN AFFAIRS (DGAP)
Sea change for Europe’s security order
The war of aggression that Russia launched against Ukraine has destroyed the European security order. Germany’s government has defined this moment as a sea change (Zeitenwende) for its foreign and security policy. This policy brief outlines three different scenarios depicting different options for the future.
TIMBRO
Putins digitala järnridå krackelerar
Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has stepped up the country's repressive media policy in an attempt to build a digital iron curtain around his own country. The author considers how alternative channels and criticism from cultural and sporting figures are affecting the information war.
STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK
Völkerrechtliche Verbrechen im Krieg gegen die Ukraine
This study outlines the institutional and legal framework for prosecution of crimes under international law committed by Russia against Ukraine. It does not however analyse to what extent these crimes have already been committed.
RAND EUROPE
Geostrategic consequences of Russia's war against Ukraine
After two months of fighting in Ukraine, some longer-term geostrategic consequences are coming into focus. The author considers that Russia may emerge as a massive loser, with Ukraine and its Western partners showing that aggression in Europe may not pay.
THE GERMAN MARSHALL FUND OF THE UNITED STATES
這份政策簡報認為，俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭是其日益軍事化的外交政策的最終體現，而這項政策的核心是少數決策者，他們主要來自與總統關係密切的軍方和安全部門。北約現在被迫回歸其最初的使命——保衛歐洲免受俄羅斯咄咄逼人且高度軍事化的外交政策的侵害。
INSTITUT FÜR WELTWIRTSCHAFT KIEL（基爾世界經濟研究所）
烏克蘭援助情況追蹤：哪些國家向烏克蘭提供援助，以及援助方式？
本文介紹了“烏克蘭援助追蹤器”，該追蹤器列出並量化了在俄烏戰爭背景下對烏克蘭的軍事、財政和人道主義援助。追蹤器涵蓋1月24日至4月23日期間，衡量了西方政府提供的支援。
美國德國馬歇爾基金會
烏克蘭戰爭引發了二戰以來歐洲最嚴重的人道危機。本文重點關注烏克蘭境內廣泛的非政府組織網絡，儘管局勢日益惡化且風險巨大，這些組織仍在繼續幫助受戰爭影響的人。
美國企業研究所
俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭重振了西方聯盟。作者分析了其中的經濟領域。
布勒哲爾
對歐洲而言，烏克蘭戰爭是一場直接的經濟衝擊。本文提出了政策制定者需要考慮的三個宏觀經濟挑戰：如何在有效利用制裁遏制俄羅斯的同時，最大限度地減少對歐盟的不利影響；如何應對能源進口成本增加導致的實際收入下降；以及如何應對能源和食品價格上漲引發的通貨膨脹。
東歐和新興經濟體研究論壇（自由網路）
本政策簡報概述了有關對外援助文獻中關於贈款和貸款相對優劣的討論，其中包括關於債務減免舉措的簡短章節。
路易斯歐洲政治經濟學院
烏克蘭戰爭正在深刻地重塑國際戰略關係和經濟聯盟。本文探討了貿易領域中一些正在發揮作用的動態因素，並強調歐洲需要說服全球主要參與者認識到氣候變遷和經濟合作等領域的共同利益。
烏克蘭之聲
本文呼籲儘早考慮戰後重建工作，尤其是在住房方面，因為住房問題無論在短期或長期都至關重要。文章基於一個前提條件——將烏克蘭的法治水平提升到可接受的程度——提出了一系列建議。
歐洲議會智庫
本文概述了俄羅斯對烏克蘭發動軍事攻擊後，歐盟和歐元區近期在經濟、金融和預算方面的決策和發展。文章還重點提出了旨在減輕任何不利的經濟、金融和社會影響，並支持歐盟和歐元區經濟復甦的政策建議。
維也納國際經濟研究所 (WIENER INSTITUT FÜR INTERNATIONALE WIRTSCHAFTSVERGLEICHE)
該網站分析了烏克蘭的人道主義需求、俄羅斯的經濟影響以及對歐洲和全球市場的溢出效應。
布魯金斯學會
由於這場戰爭涉及多個戰場和時間跨度，追蹤其進展極為複雜。俄羅斯的實際入侵進程比預期慢。儘管將俄羅斯逐出全球支付體系並使其與大部分國際貿易脫鉤所引發的金融衝擊已經撼動了市場，但作者認為，這些行動對俄羅斯經濟生產方式和普通俄羅斯民眾的經濟生活產生影響，需要比市場本身更長的時間。
POLSKI INSTYTUT SPRAW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH（波蘭國際事務學院）
俄羅斯對烏克蘭的侵略以及切斷對波蘭和保加利亞的天然氣供應，更加凸顯了減少對俄羅斯天然氣依賴的必要性。本文指出，由於全面禁運的可能性仍然很小，因此，繼續努力提高歐盟的能源安全至關重要。
羅伯特舒曼基金會
歐洲正意識到，為了確保自身繁榮、維護自身利益並維持控制權，必須減少對俄羅斯的依賴。本文探討了歐盟「逐步擺脫」對俄羅斯油氣進口依賴的優先事項，並指出烏克蘭戰爭為此增添了新的維度，歐盟的目標也從增強韌性轉變為維護主權。
歐洲議會智庫
本文探討了歐洲煤炭、石油和天然氣的供應問題。文章結合天然氣價格上漲、歐盟天然氣儲存能力、液化天然氣作為俄羅斯天然氣的潛在替代品、歐盟為減少對俄羅斯天然氣的依賴而採取的行動以及潛在的立法措施和政策影響等問題，討論了當前的情況。
世界經濟論壇
作者分析了歐盟對俄羅斯天然氣的依賴以及歐洲決策者建構能源安全的項目。
康拉德阿登納基金會
俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭是外交和安全政策的轉捩點。作者認為，這也引發了對永續發展相關領域的重新評估。文章探討了諸如原材料和食品供應方面的單邊依賴、對歐盟綠色協議時間表的影響以及全球南方國家的作用等問題。
查塔姆研究所
俄羅斯和烏克蘭對全球資源市場都至關重要，尤其是在能源、食品和化肥方面。本文探討了價格快速「飆升」的後果，供應鏈中斷和對潛在供應短缺的擔憂加劇了這一局面，並呼籲採取措施減輕當前的影響以及市場混亂和地緣政治動盪帶來的長期風險。
埃格蒙特 – 皇家國際關係研究所
歐盟及其成員國（以及北約）雖然沒有直接捲入俄羅斯對烏克蘭的戰爭，但為了回應普丁的地緣政治策略，它們已經發起了一場大規模的地緣經濟攻勢。本文闡述了它們也因此必須明確目標，並為這場戰爭必然帶來的新的地緣經濟和地緣政治格局做好準備。
歐洲-地中海研究委員會
南地中海地區民眾對歐盟應對烏克蘭的措施感到沮喪：南地中海地區民眾對此反應強烈。
推特用戶，尤其是來自南地中海地區的用戶，發現歐盟的政治同情心也存在一定程度的矛盾之處。本文指出，歐盟被指責存在雙重標準和虛偽，並因其在伊拉克、利比亞、敘利亞、葉門以及以色列和巴勒斯坦衝突中缺乏介入而受到批評。
RYTŲ EUROPOS STUDIJŲ CENTRAS（東歐研究中心）
2022年後歐盟對東部鄰國的援助：舊做法、新趨勢以及俄羅斯對烏克蘭軍事侵略的影響
面對俄羅斯對烏克蘭的侵略，這份政策文件重點分析了歐盟如何利用新舊歐洲金融工具來支持烏克蘭。作者深入探討了東部夥伴關係，並為歐盟機構提出了建議。
西班牙研究學院
在本文作者看來，烏克蘭戰爭可以被視為美中之間爭奪全球霸權的更大規模戰爭的開端。這場戰爭的結局以及結束時間，可能會塑造出一個歷史時期，在這個時期，「修昔底德陷阱」的陰影將無情地籠罩其上。
科學與政治基金會
本文探討了烏克蘭戰爭對敘利亞以及敘利亞境內的外部勢力（俄羅斯、美國、土耳其、伊朗）的直接影響，以及這些外部勢力的決定可能會如何影響當前的地緣政治格局。
雅克德洛爾學院
俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭對歐洲及其鄰國產生了深遠的影響。本文以摩爾多瓦為例進行分析。自1991年以來，摩爾多瓦一直夾在羅馬尼亞和獨立的烏克蘭之間。出於對烏克蘭的聲援和對領土完整的捍衛，摩爾多瓦領導人在處理與俄羅斯的關係時，無論從內部或外部角度來看，都力求保持謹慎。
觀察者研究基金會
儘管烏克蘭局勢動盪，本文仍認為印度經濟展現並將持續展現韌性。本文的論點主要基於印度經濟的長期結構性穩健性，而這種穩健性可望為印度經濟的持續發展提供保障。
美國國家亞洲研究局
本文考慮了俄羅斯最近入侵烏克蘭的事件，並分析了該衝突與涉及美國和日本的跨台海情景的相似之處、差異和經驗教訓。
美國和平研究所
俄烏戰爭迫使世界正視國際機構的嚴重缺陷。本文將聚焦在這些機構的改革方案。
2022年4月27日
烏克蘭戰爭爆發至今已過去兩個多月，智庫的分析涵蓋了俄羅斯的行動和戰爭的根源、烏克蘭東部和東南部新攻勢帶來的更高風險、西方如何應對局勢升級、新的歐洲安全架構、俄羅斯的信息戰、以暴力侵害婦女作為戰爭武器、對暴行的問責、來自烏克蘭的難民湧入、歐盟可能面臨的社會經濟後果、食品和非洲商品價格上漲（伊朗食品和伊朗國家的地位、經濟和伊朗國家的經濟後果、食品和非洲國家上漲。
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH（東方研究中心）
這篇文章分析了俄羅斯為維持對烏克蘭被侵占領土的控製而採取的行動，指出克里姆林宮既沒有快速發展被佔領土的計劃，也沒有有效保障平民支持的方式。這導致了殘酷的鎮壓、無能的佔領以及在被佔領土上的恐怖統治。
戰略與國際研究中心
本文闡述了克里姆林宮對烏克蘭身分的錯誤假設，這些假設影響了其決策，並為克里姆林宮對烏克蘭發動戰爭奠定了基礎。
希臘歐洲 外交政策基金會 (希臘歐洲外交 政策基金會)
作者認為，俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭將改變歐洲和全球體系的格局，並促使歐盟成為一個協調一致的安全行動者。面對全球安全挑戰，北約仍是唯一的選擇。歐盟發展戰略自主的雄心壯志只有在跨大西洋聯盟內部才能真正實現。
大西洋理事會
本研究旨在確定烏克蘭戰爭升級階梯上的關鍵環節；評估當前危機如何在烏克蘭境內以及北約東翼升級；探討美國和北約的姿態如何能夠防止或限制升級；並就美國和北約如何調整其戰略、姿態和活動以應對升級動態提出建議。
科學與政治基金會
與俄羅斯這樣的核武大國發生任何衝突都存在使用核武的風險。作者認為，只要北約不直接幹預烏克蘭，且俄羅斯政權不感到生存受到威脅，那麼有意或無意使用核武的可能性都極低，儘管莫斯科的核威脅仍然會帶來嚴重的負面後果。
策略研究基金會（FRS）
高超音速飛彈：le cas du Kh-47M2 Kinjal
本文重點介紹俄羅斯Kh -47M2「金剛」（Kinjal）高超音速空對地飛彈，該飛彈具備攜帶核彈頭的能力，並於今年3月在烏克蘭被俄羅斯軍隊使用。文章探討了該型武器的起源、特性及其背後的技術，並對高超音速飛彈進行了更廣泛的描述，指出了它們與「金剛」飛彈的異同。
新大陸
本文分析了三篇闡述俄羅斯當局對入侵烏克蘭立場的文本：弗拉基米爾·普丁於2021年7月發表的題為《論俄羅斯人和烏克蘭人的歷史統一性》的文章；2022年2月24日晚發表的宣戰演說；以及莫斯科和全俄羅斯大牧首基里爾於今年3月發表的佈道。作者認為，這些文本反映了一種服務於戰爭宣傳的新的俄羅斯民族敘事。
科學與政治基金會
本文探討了俄羅斯如何演變成獨裁政權，並思考戰爭和製裁造成的巨大壓力是否能在中期內導致政治變革和普丁政權的終結。
美國企業研究所
「頓巴斯之戰」已經開始。作者評論了影響這場很可能演變成消耗戰的戰役結果的兩個因素：哪支軍隊損失最大，以及哪支軍隊在精疲力竭後能夠重整旗鼓，投入下一輪戰鬥，而下一輪戰鬥或許才是決定性的。
美國和平研究所
本文認為，俄羅斯在烏克蘭東部和東南部的新攻勢加劇了侵略者和防禦者的風險，也增加了民主國家繼續支持烏克蘭的必要性，包括提供遠程武器以進行防禦。
歐洲議會智庫
俄羅斯對烏克蘭的戰爭在國際法和人權機構中的作用：重新檢視相關機構
這份簡報從國際法和人權的角度探討了烏克蘭戰爭。簡報指出，儘管國際法和人權機構無法立即為烏克蘭民眾提供多少幫助，但這些措施具有重要的政治功能。最重要的是，它們為追究戰爭期間所犯罪行的責任奠定了基礎。
國家安全研究所
自俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭以來，國際刑事法院檢察官已開始推進對俄羅斯軍事行動的調查，調查涉及兩項訴訟：俄羅斯與喬治亞的衝突（2008年）以及與烏克蘭的衝突（自2014年起）。作者認為，對俄羅斯的調查可能成為世界輿論對國際刑事法院態度的轉捩點，並有助於提升法院的合法性。
美國和平研究所
本文評估了國際社會在支持對烏克蘭平民犯下的暴行進行問責進程方面所採取的行動，並得出結論：這項聯合努力需要協調、創造力和持續的政治意願，以確保追究肇事者的責任，並為受害者伸張正義。
傳統基金會
根據這篇文章，儘管美國一貫對國際刑事法院（ICC）持懷疑態度，但鑑於越來越多的證據表明俄羅斯犯下了令人震驚的戰爭罪行，美國應該向烏克蘭提供援助。拜登政府透過直接向烏克蘭提供援助和情報，既能展現其對法治和國際安全的承諾，又能與美國在國際刑事法院問題上的立場保持一致。
觀察者研究基金會
烏克蘭危機爆發後，針對婦女的性暴力和身體暴力事件的報導日益增多。本文概述了針對婦女的暴力行為如何被用作戰爭武器。
ТЕКСТИ.ORG.UA (TEXTY.ORG.UA)
本文分析了4月4日至10日期間俄羅斯國家媒體和其他網站向俄羅斯民眾傳達的有關烏克蘭襲擊的信息。文章得出結論，俄羅斯的假訊息傳播者仍然將每三條新聞中就有一條用於報導這場戰爭及其對俄羅斯的影響。
安全研究中心（CSS ）
本期內容涉及俄羅斯對烏克蘭、波蘭、美國和歐盟使用的工具，以及這些國家為應對俄羅斯資訊戰而採取的戰略。
CEDOS – 社會研究中心
本文概述了教育機構遭受的損害數據，以及烏克蘭學前教育、中學教育和高等教育組織過程中發生的關鍵變化。
INSTITUT FÜR WELTWIRTSCHAFT KIEL（基爾世界經濟研究所）
哪些國家向烏克蘭提供援助？他們以何種方式提供援助？烏克蘭援助追蹤器簡介
本文介紹了“烏克蘭支持追蹤器”，該追蹤器列出了自2月24日俄羅斯入侵以來對烏克蘭的軍事、財政和人道主義援助，並對其進行了量化。它衡量了來自西方政府，特別是七國集團和歐盟成員國的支持。
雅克德洛爾學院
As a consequence of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, around 10 million of Ukrainians have fled their homes to find safety in other regions of Ukraine but also in neighbouring countries. This paper provides some preliminary insights on the likely socio-economic consequences that the influx of millions of Ukrainians in such a short amount of time will have in the EU.
REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO
La acogida a los refugiados ucranianos: algunos desafíos e incertidumbres
The arrival of several millions of Ukrainian refugees to the EU raises management, financial and integration challenges, but has unprecedented political support. This article looks at the current situation and the challenges in the longer term, given the uncertainty over the duration of the war and the volume of refugees it will produce.
FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN
Accueil des réfugiés ukrainiens : entre réponses d'urgence et solutions de long terme
It is difficult to estimate the impact that the arrival of almost five million Ukrainian refugees will have on Member States. The authors consider that, in the short term, it is important to ensure the protection and reception of people fleeing the war in good conditions, and acknowledge that, in the medium and long term, it is more difficult to estimate needs. The longer the war lasts, the more the needs of displaced persons will change in nature, both in terms of psychological and material support.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Human development in Putin's Russia
The paper examines the influence of Putin's regime and the possible consequence of the Ukraine conflict on Russia's population and human development aspects such as, among other, gross national income per capita, life expectancy and education based on rich statistical data.
CENTER FOR SECURITY STUDIES (CSS)
The topics in this issue discuss Russia’s relations towards post-Soviet countries, Russian politics and prospects of the Russian economy, Russian propaganda techniques and the results of a Russian public opinion poll.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Economic repercussions of Russia’s war on Ukraine
This paper provides a summary of recent economic, financial and budgetary decisions and developments following the war in Ukraine, including recent information on the EU sanctions regime, policies supporting energy, and economic and financial resilience in the EU. It also highlights policy recommendations to mitigate any adverse economic, financial and social effects and to support economic recovery in the EU and the Euro Area.
INSTITUT JACQUES DELORS
What the EU budget can and cannot do in response to the war in Ukraine
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has sparked a debate on whether the EU should issue new common debt to deal with the social and economic consequences of the war. Those in favour contend that the expected budgetary costs of the war for the EU will be too high to be covered by the existing EU instruments – the €800bn Covid recovery fund and the multi-annual EU budget.
ITALIAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL STUDIES
Rising food prices: global risks and vulnerabilities
The author of this article states that the breakout of the conflict in Ukraine and the following imposition of heavy Western sanctions on Russia are causing sharp price increases in food and energy commodities - of which both Ukraine and Russia represent key exporters - as well as disruptions to global supply chains, impacting the post-pandemic economic recovery.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Sanctions in the context of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
This briefing provides summarised and simplified information regarding the sanctions the EU is imposing following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It covers the EU framework for adopting and imposing sanctions; the sanctions EU is imposing; how these are being implemented and enforced and how the EU sanctions can be rendered more effective.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
EU-Ukraine trade and investment relations and the impact of Russia’s war
The article discusses the consequences of the war for EU-Ukraine trade and investment relations. The EU is Ukraine's most important trading partner, accounting for more than 40 % of its total trade in goods in 2021. In turn, Ukraine is the EU’s 15th largest trading partner, representing around 1.2% of overall EU trade.
WIENER INSTITUT FÜR INTERNATIONALE WIRTSCHAFTSVERGLEICHE (THE VIENNA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC STUDIES)
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has triggered a humanitarian, economic, financial and political crisis that will reverberate across Europe. This policy note analyses the short- and medium-term implications of the conflict.
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES
Opinion on Ukraine’s application for membership of the European Union
This paper examines the request by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on 28 February 2022 for his country to accede to membership of the EU and advocates several steps the EU could take in response, following the Council’s invitation to the European Commission to produce an Opinion on this request.
TERRA NOVA
La Pologne face à la guerre en Ukraine
This article seeks to throw light on the recent Franco-Polish tensions over Ukraine, pointing out that even if the two countries have adopted similar positions on this crisis, they do not have the same reading of the security issues on the continent. Recent tensions between the European Union and Poland are likely to drag on, despite an improvement in the relationship between Brussels and Warsaw.
ΕΛΛΗΝΙΚΟ ΊΔΡΥΜΑ ΕΥΡΩΠΑΪΚΗΣ ΚΑΙ ΕΞΩΤΕΡΙΚΗΣ ΠΟΛΙΤΙΚΗΣ (HELLENIC FOUNDATION FOR EUROPEAN FOREIGN POLICY)/ CENTRE FOR APPLIED TURKEY STUDIES (CATS)/ STIFTUNG MERCATOR /FEDERAL FOREIGN OFFICE
Relations between Southern European MS have often been marked by a loose cooperation or, worse, by logics of competition. Recent events such as the post-pandemic recovery or the war in Ukraine show that, when cooperation occurs, positive results can be achieved. This joint publication identifies several policy areas for fruitful cooperation between Southern European member states.
POLSKI INSTYTUT SPRAW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (POLISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
Flexible neutrality: Austria on the Russian aggression against Ukraine
The article examines Austria's neutral position towards Russia and its role during the war in Ukraine, only supporting Ukraine through humanitarian aid. It considers that the reason of such neutrality towards the Russian Federation could be related to close energy and economic ties.
CENTRUM STOSUNKÓW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS)
ASEAN wobec konfliktu na Ukrainie
The author examines the different reactions of ASEAN countries to the conflict, including votes within the UN over Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
POLSKI INSTYTUT SPRAW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (THE POLISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
Iran's attitude to Russia's aggression against Ukraine
The article looks at Iran’s cautious approach towards Russia’s war with Ukraine and considers whether Iran will actively support Russia against Ukraine and whether the war will have an impact on the full renewal of a nuclear deal with Iran.
UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE
What Russia's invasion of Ukraine means for African governments
In Africa, the conflict is upending long-term trends across the continent and eliciting mixed reactions from governments. This article considers how some see this as an opportunity to build economic capacity from within the continent, whilst others have opened the door for the Russian government to re-shape its approach toward Africa.
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG
The War against Ukraine – 5 takeaways for China and their implications for the EU
The common western sanctions against Russia are undoubtedly unnerving from a Chinese perspective, and China’s possible takeaways from them will shape its future relations with the EU and other western nations. At least five take-aways are ready at hand : three of them are discussed in the first article and the other two in the second one.
UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE
China’s Ukraine gambit: Beijing plays both sides
This article explores how and why Chinese leaders clearly believe China’s contradictory stance offers it the best chance of protecting Chinese interests and finding opportunity in this crisis.
UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE
Ukraine crisis prompts China to swing behind Myanmar’s junta
After a year of tentative ties with Myanmar’s democratic opposition, China has now dropped all pretension of hedging its bets and ramped up support for the military regime. This article analyses China’s real intentions and the likely implications of this move, calling on Western states who are helping Ukraine meet an existential threat, not to ignore China’s moves in Southeast Asia.
ITALIAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL STUDIES
China: Towards a greener BRI, but with Russia’s gas
This article finds that the different consequences of the gas market disruption due to the Ukraine crisis in 2022 has even further reignited the Chinese leadership’s concern over energy security. The situation could delay global climate action to a point that would make climate disruption on business even more severe.
INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES
Walking a fine line: Turkey’s mediation between Russia and Ukraine, and relations with the West
Russia and Ukraine have clearly been willing to give Ankara a significant role to play in talks on how to end the war and to participate in Turkish mediation efforts. This article considers how the position of mediator has eased Turkey’s situation not only in relation to some of the dilemmas posed by the war, but also in providing an opening for improving its relations with NATO.
ΕΛΛΗΝΙΚΟ ΊΔΡΥΜΑ ΕΥΡΩΠΑΪΚΗΣ ΚΑΙ ΕΞΩΤΕΡΙΚΗΣ ΠΟΛΙΤΙΚΗΣ (HELLENIC FOUNDATION FOR EUROPEAN FOREIGN POLICY/ CENTRE FOR APPLIED TURKEY STUDIES (CATS)/ STIFTUNG MERCATOR /FEDERAL FOREIGN OFFICE
Turkey’s pivot to Eurasia: the effect of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
The author points out that Turkey’s position in a “post-Western world” is widely debated as Asia emerges as the world’s new demographic and economic focal point. The emergence of a revisionist Russia, threatening to destroy the global order in place since the end of the Cold War, sent out a powerful warning to its neighbours, including Turkey. Ukraine and the West’s response to Russian aggression refuted Turkish Eurasianist claims that Ukraine was “helpless” and that the West had entered a “serious and irreversible decline”.
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG
Europe’s struggles for influence in Africa in light of the Kremlin’s invasion
Russia and Ukraine are important wheat suppliers for many African states, which are now threatened with high prices and shortages. The article gives an overview of what the additional political and financial costs mean for the start of the new EU-AU partnership.
POLSKI INSTYTUT SPRAW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (POLISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
Russia's war with Ukraine will force the acceleration of food production reforms in Africa
The article discusses the impact of food shortages in Africa due to the war in Ukraine. According to the paper, the shortage of food already has socio-political consequences, as some African countries are very dependent on grain imports from Russia and Ukraine. As such, price fluctuations are already in place and exports of wheat, as well as other food products, are already banned within certain African countries.
INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES
Russie – Venezuela : un partenariat à l’épreuve de la guerre en Ukraine
Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine on February 24, Venezuela has displayed seemingly unwavering support for Russia. This paper considers the possible implications of the recent resumption with Washington of a dialogue broken since 2019.
13.4.2022
More than 6 weeks into Russia’s war against Ukraine, think tanks analyse the origins of the Russian invasion and the pre-existing global divisions, the threat and impact of escalation, use of Russian propaganda, the war crimes being committed against the Ukrainian people, Ukraine’s foreign policy choices and its wartime information strategy, as well as assess the impact of the war on the EU’s asylum policy, its security framework and its enlargement agenda, and review the positions of Turkey, Israel and Africa.
LA FONDATION POUR LA RECHERCHE STRATÉGIQUE (FRS)
One month on in the Ukraine war: what role for the kadyrovtsy?
This article discusses the role played by the “kadyrovtsy”, the personal army of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, in supporting Russia’s military aggress in Ukraine. The “kadyrovtsy” group, and other loosely integrated Chechen units, have previously conducted special operations on behalf of the federal authorities in Moscow in Georgia in 2008, Ukraine in 2014 and Syria in 2015.
INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS
War in Ukraine, a punch on the international chessboard
This article analyses the military invasion of Ukraine in the context of geopolitics, seeing the invasion not as the beginning of a new global ordering model, but one more chapter in the long-standing competition between great powers. What is new is the possibility of escalation in the conflict that could lead to direct confrontation between Russia and the North Atlantic Alliance, without any proxies.
ILKO KUCHERIV DEMOCRATIC INITIATIVES FOUNDATION
Ukraine’s foreign policy choices and responses to the Russian escalation
This article considers the long-standing build-up to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and analyses Ukraine’s security options in the context of the war, acknowledging that it looks hard to find a solution that can bridge the differences of Ukrainian and Russian security perceptions.
BRUSSELS SCHOOL OF GOVERNANCE
Bargaining with blood: Russia’s war in Ukraine
This brief applies the bargaining model of war to examine the origins, escalation, eventual termination, and long-term settlement of Russia’s war against Ukraine.
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES
Ukraine: The shock of recognition
The author provides a historical perspective, in particular harking back to the broad anti-fascist alliance from around 1933 to 1947, regarding various factors at play in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
POLSKI INSTYTUT SPRAW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (THE POLISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
Ukraine’s wartime information strategy
The article looks at the strategic communication policy applied by the Ukrainian authorities during the war and aimed at their own citizens, Russian society, and the international community.
POLSKI INSTYTUT SPRAW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (THE POLISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
Russia’s wartime censorship and propaganda
The author examines how the war against Ukraine is being used by the Russian government to transform Russia into a complete totalitarian state and the censorship and propaganda of military successes are tools employed to this end.
CHATHAM HOUSE - THE ROYAL INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
Ensuring Ukraine prevails is now the only moral choice
According to the brief, a successful outcome to the fighting in Ukraine is critical not only to Ukrainian statehood, but to the future security of Europe as a whole. That means the only way to secure Europe is to ensure Ukraine prevails – and is not subjected to a flawed and unworkable peace settlement that does no more than postpone its reckoning with Russia, while continuing the suffering of the Ukrainian people under occupation.
COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
Can Russia be held accountable for war crimes in Ukraine?
The author examines what war crimes have been committed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, how investigations might proceed, the role of the US in seeking accountability and the question of reparations.
ZENTRUM LIBERALE MODERNE (CENTER FOR LIBERAL MODERNITY)
Russland will die Identität der Ukraine auslöschen
The Russian attacks on Babyn Yar and other symbolic places and cultural monuments in Ukraine are similar to the practices of the Soviet Union and, according to the author, show that by destroying Ukrainian culture, Russia is trying to erase Ukrainian identity.
CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
Justice in Ukraine may be slow, but must be steady
As the world is demanding justice for the atrocities being committed in Ukraine, the author outlines how achieving it will take both patience and determination.
INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP
The war in Ukraine raises new questions for EU foreign policy
This article looks at how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has prompted the EU to take unprecedented decisions on security, defence and EU enlargement and how it is also starting to shape the EU’s external action more broadly, opening new questions for Brussels and member states.
LUXEMBOURG INSTITUTE OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC RESEARCH
The Ukrainian exodus calls for better coordination in the European Asylum Policy
This policy brief analyses the current situation and give estimates of the number of refugees who could be distributed across EU27 destinations depending on their absorption capacities.
POLSKI INSTYTUT SPRAW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (THE POLISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
Franco-Russian economic relations in the face of the war in Ukraine
According to the article, Russia’s aggression against Ukraine will affect the French economy in micro and macroeconomic terms. The limited reaction of French businesses to the war shows that image losses remain a secondary issue while the risk of losing capital is much more alarming.
STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK
Perceptions in Turkey about the war in Ukraine
In order to better understand Turkey’s position vis-à-vis the Ukrainian war, this article looks at how different actors both within Turkey’s ruling alliance between the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the ultranationalist Nationalist Action Party (MHP) and those within the opposition relate to and perceive it.
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES)
Wariergardzie Zachodu – Izrael wobec wojny (The rearguard of the West - Israel's attitude towards the war)
Although Russia's invasion on Ukraine does not affect Israel directly, it is a huge political problem for this country. The article analyses the prudent position adopted by Israel, asking whether its balancing strategy will be plausible in case of possible escalation of the conflict.
FRIENDS OF EUROPE
Beyond Europe: the impact of the war in Ukraine on Africa
This article analyses the reasons for the way African countries voted the way they did at the UN regarding Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the effects that the war and the sanctions are having in these countries.
6.4.2022
Now almost six weeks into the war of aggression against Ukraine, think tanks assess the impact of sanctions on Russia, the risk of their effectiveness being diluted, the need for continued pressure with the implications of extending sanctions to Russian oil and gas exports, as well as providing provisional assessments of the political landscape, the Russian air campaign, and the likelihood of a chemical and biological attack by Russia. They also look at how China, Latin America, the Middle East and North Africa are responding to, or are impacted by, the war in Ukraine.
INSTITUT JACQUES DELORS
Un mois de guerre en Ukraine: les premières leçons
A month after the start of the war in Ukraine, the time for final assessments has unfortunately not yet come. However, a first provisional political assessment is particularly necessary because the conflict is at a time of uncertainty and therefore of tipping point. Indeed, as the author points out, the fate of Ukraine, the place of Russia and the security of Europe are at stake and the armed conflict has not yet decided anything.
INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES
Quelle campagne aérienne au-dessus de l’Ukraine ? Premiers éléments de réflexion
The Russian air campaign in the war against Ukraine is relatively weak and messy. What are the reasons behind the lack of Russian air superiority? This briefing provides the first elements of analysis.
CHATHAM HOUSE
Ukraine: Is a chemical or biological attack likely ?
This article explores key questions about chemical and biological weapons, including when and how they might be used by Russia and the role of disinformation, concluding that although large-scale use in Ukraine appears unlikely, concerns remain about targeted attacks.
CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
Considering the No-Fly Zone prospects in Ukraine
In light of Russia’s ongoing aggression across much of Ukraine and the growing number of civilian casualties and refugees, there is increasing pressure for the United States and NATO to create a no-fly zone over portions of Ukraine. The authors outline the need for policymakers to be clear-eyed in their understanding of the tactical challenges, the desired end state, and escalation risks of any form of a no-fly zone.
LA FONDATION POUR LA RECHERCHE STRATÉGIQUE
La relance de la défense européenne et le conflit en Ukraine: dynamiques et paradoxes
The article deals with the future vision of European defence, its dynamics and paradoxes, including the role of the USA and NATO for European security as well as implications of the current situation in Ukraine. It also develops a future defence scenario in Europe which could involve the establishment of collective European defence forces at the same time showing possible restraints and problems arising from this idea.
FUNDACIÓN DE ESTUDIOS DE ECONOMÍA APLICADA
¿Cómo afecta la guerra de Ucrania a las economías europeas? Algunos indicadores preliminares
This analysis provides some relevant data to quantify the economic shock that Ukraine's conflict means to Spain and the rest of EU member states. There are three main factors: energy dependence on Russia; the importance of the country as an export market; and the effects of higher import prices on the economy.
REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO ROYAL INSTITUTE)
¿Puede resistir las sanciones la economía rusa?
The article considers that sanctions from the West will cause damage to the Russian economy, but maybe not enough to stop Putin, since the economy has become very resistant over the years. It claims the only option the West has is putting even more pressure on, including by extending sanctions to the energy sector, since it is only the Russian people who can stop Putin.
TERRA NOVA
L’heure des sanctions économiques a sonné
The countries of the European Union have not remained passive in the face of Russian aggression against Ukraine. This paper questions whether by focusing their response on economic sanctions, have they chosen an effective lever and what damage the EU member states are willing to bear to stop the Russian offensive.
BRUEGEL
The decoupling of Russia: high-tech goods and components
According to this article, sanctions on high-tech goods supplies, combined with financial sanctions and other restrictions, will deprive Russia of a future as a modern economy.
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG
China can only offer an immediate respite for the Russian economy
The unprecedented sanctions imposed on Russia in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine are likely to have devastating consequences for the Russian economy and beyond. This article points out that how devastating they can be depends on several factors, starting with how porous such sanctions might end up being. The elephant in the room regarding Russia’s ability to bypass or, at very least, mitigate the sanctions is China.
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG
Sanctions against Russia – What can we learn from the past?
The European Union and its allies have been implementing several rounds of sanctions against Russia in response to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. This blog post assesses experiences with sanctions from the past and provides a brief overview of economic costs, reasons that sanctions fail, and implications in the current case of Russia.
EUROPEAN POLICY CENTRE
Lessons from the Ukrainian cyber front
The author of the commentary discusses the issue of cybersecurity and cyber attacks in the context of the Ukrainian crisis. In view of the current situation, the text includes a number of lessons that can be drawn and offers suggestions for the developing EU cyber policy.
CENTER FOR THE STUDY OF DEMOCRACY
EU energy and climate security strategy to counter the Russian aggression in Europe
According to this policy brief, the Russian invasion in Ukraine and the resulting energy and geopolitical crisis have clearly demonstrated that accommodating Russia is no longer defensible. The most effective way to stop the Kremlin’s aggression is for Europe to ban oil and gas imports from Russia that could cripple the Russian economy in 8 to 11 months. This would need to be accompanied by emergency measures to protect vulnerable consumers and alleviate Europe’s critical vulnerabilities before the next heating season.
CARNEGIE EUROPE
Ukraine’s EU Membership and the geostrategy of democratic self-preservation
According to this article, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine requires the EU to upgrade its Eastern Partnership policy framework from non-committal to geostrategic. Offering Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine membership perspective would not only support the EU’s rhetoric of shoring up sovereignty but also defend democracy.
LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS AND POLITICAL SCIENCE
Strategies for order in a disorderly world
This strategic update clarifies the terms of the debates between realism and liberalism, in view of the Russian invasion in Ukraine. It suggests that in a disorderly world, neither realism nor liberal internationalism offers a sufficient path to a stable international order, because of their respective exaggerated claims.
CENTER FOR SECURITY STUDIES (CSS)
Russian Analytical Digest No 281: Political Regime Stability / Universities / Agriculture
The topics of this issue discuss the political regime stability in Russia, the reliability of Russian opinion polls, the impact of the war on Russian agriculture and Russian universities.
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES
Can the war in Ukraine revive the EU’s enlargement agenda for the Western Balkans?
This paper asks, even if the EU does grant candidate status to Ukraine, as well as Moldova and Georgia, where this leaves the Western Balkans and their long journey towards the EU which began over 20 years ago. It also considers what impact the current crisis will have on the EU’s enlargement agenda over the coming months.
INSTITUT MONTAIGNE
China Trends #12 - Ukraine: China’s "Rock-Solid" Pro-Russia Narrative
This paper assesses how the Chinese press are analyzing the war in Ukraine. It notes the large elements of convergence among literally all published analyses and opinions, but also points to some nuances and different accents, sometimes even within the same writing.
REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO ROYAL INSTITUTE)
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, far from being a stranger to Latin America, so far removed from the European scene, has had a direct impact in at least three fields. This article analyses all three fields: the economy; the global dispute for the control and access to energy resources; and the internal political situation of the countries concerned.
CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE
What the Russian war in Ukraine means for the Middle East
This paper looks at how countries across the Middle East and North Africa are responding to Russia’s war in Ukraine. Citizens are feeling the impacts of the war in Europe on their food security, energy prices, and job markets. Regional governments are hedging their bets between Russia and the U.S.-led Western camp, playing on time to better evaluate the impacts of the war and to ease the restraints it is imposing on the fragile economies and social fabrics of the region.
30.3.2022
Almost five weeks after the invasion of Ukraine, think tanks analyse the complexities of the war, including the threat of nuclear weapons, the consequences for the global economy with the risk of a global food shortage, the EU’s energy dilemma, the plight of Ukrainian refugees and the EU’s response, the implications of the war for different countries and their relations with the EU, and the need for a plan for rebuilding Ukraine after the war.
BARCELONA CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
Europe should avoid two traps as it confronts war in Ukraine
The author warns of two dangers for Europe in the context of the invasion of Ukraine: framing the war in civilisational terms and weaponizing multilateral economic institutions. The result could lead to a new Fortress Europe far from the original EU project.
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES
Russia and Ukraine: talking while fighting
The author assesses the progress of talks between Russia and Ukraine.
CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
Rebuilding Ukraine after the war
Though war in Ukraine is still in full force, the author argues the need for the Ukrainian government to already envisage and plan the recovery of its war devastated country.
INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES
Will Russia use nuclear weapons in Ukraine?
The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the nuclear context provided by President Putin has immediately returned the subject of nuclear deterrence to the agenda. This article considers the question of whether the nuclear taboo will be broken for the first time in 77 years, or whether the balance of nuclear deterrence will be maintained?
NEDERLANDS INSTITUUT VOOR INTERNATIONALE BETREKKINGEN - CLINGENDAEL (NETHERLANDS INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS)
Five questions on Western military support to Ukraine
A military analyst answers some of the most urgent questions on Western military support to Ukraine. Could this support stop or repel the Russian invasion? To what extent is this support a form of direct involvement? Could it lead to a proxy war?
INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES
Intelligence and the war in Ukraine: the limited power of public disclosure
The war in Ukraine marks a new climax in the public use of intelligence by states. This article considers the impact of intelligence information and assessments revealed by the United States, the UK, and even the government of Ukraine about Russia’s intentions and plans before and during the invasion.
INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES
Invasion russe de l’Ukraine : une rupture politico-stratégique?
Eight years after deploying an integral indirect strategy against Kiev, both military and non-military, the launch of this war by Russia may have seemed paradoxical insofar as the Russian political elites have, for thirty years, conceptualized and favoured the circumvention of the inter-state armed struggle to achieve political objectives considered vital.
BRUEGEL
The decoupling of Russia: software, media and online services
According to this blog post, restrictions so far on software, media and online services in Russia have been imposed either voluntarily by firms, or else by Russia itself in order to restrict the flow of information.
CENTER FOR SECURITY STUDIES (CSS)
Russian Analytical Digest No. 280: Sanctions against Russia; Russia’s War in Ukraine on Social Media
This issue looks into the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy and highlights the so-called Fortress Russia strategy. In addition, the contributions discuss the role of social media platforms such as TikTok and VK and their potential for misinformation and the risks its users may face.
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH - CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES (OSW)
Dyktatura wojenna: władza i społeczeństwo w Rosji (A military dictatorship: the authorities and the society in Russia)
Although there are no credible sociological data on the public mood in Russia, the level of support for or passive acceptance of "the special operation" is rather high. Considering the information blockade, the propaganda offensive and Russia's elite attitudes, this article claims that the deepening isolation of Russia will be accompanied by a neo-totalitarian internal policy.
KONRAD ADENAUER STIFTUNG
Die Sozialen Medien im Ukrainekrieg : Militärische Aufklärung und der Kampf um die Deutungshoheit
Military and ideological conflicts have been conducted for years via social media. This article points to a new phenomenon of warfare in Ukraine. Private individuals and Ukrainian soldiers use mobile phones to record troop movements, destroyed military equipment, bombings and spread them on social media.
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG
Die religiöse Dimension des Krieges in der Ukraine und die globalen Konsequenzen
The religious dimension of the war in Ukraine has mainly been discussed among theologists. The article comments on the extent of the ideologic involvement of the Russian orthodox church in the war and the global consequences of the politics of the Russian orthodox church.
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG
From ambiguity to adaptation: how to shift gears in EU-Ukrainian relations
The article discusses possible ways for Ukraine to join the EU, among them a multi-staged accession.
BARCELONA CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
La crisis humanitaria de Ucrania debe forzar avances inesperados en el sistema de asilo europeo
The article argues that the Ukrainian refugee crisis is putting the Common European Asylum System (CEAS) to the test. The high level of consensus and the current position of traditionally more reticent countries opens up new possibilities for rapid progress on agreements within the Pact on Migration and Asylum to reform the CEAS.
HERTIE SCHOOL – JACQUES DELORS CENTRE
Ukraine‘s refugee plight - A paradigm shift for the EU’s asylum policy?
The policy brief discusses why a mechanism for the fair sharing of responsibility is urgently needed and outlines what such a scheme could look like.
INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS
The Ukraine conflict, the largest European diaspora of the twenty first century?
The invasion of Ukraine launched by Russian President Vladimir Putin is the first major aggression in Europe since World War II. It has consequently caused the largest exodus of refugees. The author expresses concern about how long the European protection to these refugees will last and if it will become a humanitarian crisis.
LA FONDATION POUR LA RECHERCHE STRATÉGIQUE
Guerre en Ukraine: la population, otage d’une nouvelle stratégie russe de«pourrissement» ?
This article focuses on the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the consequences the armed conflict has on the Ukrainian civilian population. It discusses issues related to Ukrainian massive migration in the face of the armed conflict and analyses how the migratory flows in general seem to be have been used by Putin to achieve his objective of destabilizing and causing chaos in Europe.
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG
Putin’s war and the EU’s response – How European Member States have united to help refugees
The article gives an overview of how European member states have reacted to the recent influx of Ukrainian refugees. It briefly discusses the implementation of the temporary protection directive and questions whether the current situation could lead to a comprehensive reform of the Common European Asylum System.
STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK (SWP)
Flucht aus der Ukraine: Mobilität erhalten und langfristig denken!
The EU has activated the Temporary Protection Directive for the first time in response to the largest movement of refugees since the Second World War. This article considers what the next steps should be for dealing with the influx of refugees from Ukraine.
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH - CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES (OSW)
Gospodarcze skutki wojny: widmo głębokiego kryzysu w Rosji (The economic consequences of the war: a looming crisis in Russia)
The article outlines the sanctions imposed on Russia so far, describes the reaction of Kremlin and the first consequences of the measures.
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES
Sanction-proof or sanction-hit : how can the EU make Putin’s evil war even more costly
The EU, together with its allies, has shown impressive unity in imposing severe sanctions against Russia. This Policy Insight reviews the EU’s sanctions against Russia and looks at the possibilities to increase their effectiveness, drawing upon lessons learned in the past.
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG
How the war against Ukraine can change the global economy
The analysts present five central consequences of the Russian war on Ukraine for global economic relations in the coming years: economic dependencies will be reduced, geopolitical considerations will increasingly shape foreign trade relations, there will be a threat of a bifurcation of the global economy, digitalization will shorten the global value chain, the attractiveness of the ecological transformation is accelerated.
DEUTSCHE GESELLSCHAFT FÜR AUSWÄRTIGE POLITIK (GERMAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS)
The China factor in Russia’s war: implications for Europe
In Russia’s war against Ukraine, the fronts are clear: the EU supports Ukraine; China stands by Russia. If the EU deals with China, it must defend its own values and interests, mind its long-term room for maneuver, and learn to defuse tensions. This analysis, which is based on five scenarios, shows how.
INSTITUT FÜR WELTWIRTSCHAFT KIEL (KIEL INSTITUTE FOR THE WORLD ECONOMY)
Long-run impacts of the conflict in Ukraine on food security in Africa
Many African countries heavily rely on imports of agricultural commodities and agricultural inputs from Ukraine and Russia, for example wheat, other grains, and fertilizer. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has disrupted global access to grains. This policy brief investigates the possible long-term consequences of the conflict on food security in Africa.
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG
Important factors in the global economy have long since changed and these changes have been magnified by Putin’s war on Ukraine. This article examines the challenges which economic policy in particular will be facing, including factors relating to scarcity of food.
TERRA NOVA
Russia's war on Ukraine risks causing a global food shortage. To avoid this, the authors question whether Europe should reverse its agricultural strategy in order to rapidly increase production and yields. In other words, should ecological transition be sacrificed in the name of stability?
E3G
EU can stop Russian gas imports by 2025: accelerating clean energy avoids fossil lock-in
The invasion of Ukraine has highlighted the geopolitical liability for the EU from fossil fuel imports from autocratic regimes. This analysis considers ways for the EU to replace Russian gas imports in the short term, taking critical decisions over investment in infrastructure and economic relationships.
EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
Europe’s Russian energy dilemma
The authors of this article claim that the EU should adopt a phased approach to energy sanctions on Russia. This would be more effective than a rushed embargo and would help preserve European unity.
EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
Life punishes those who come too late
This article states that the EU should immediately impose a temporary embargo on Russian energy imports. According to the author, if the union waits any longer, it will be too late – and the political costs could be huge.
CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
This short commentary demonstrates how the war has caused countries to revise their risk assessments. It is not only about doing business or investing in Russia, but also about business in other non-rule-of-law authoritarian states, where foreigners have little recourse if things go wrong.
TERRA NOVA
L’Europe à l’épreuve de la guerre
The divisions that had settled between Europeans and created repeated confrontations – North against South, East against West, "frugal" against spenders - have all been upset by the three major crises that have followed one another at an accelerated pace in recent years: Brexit, Covid, Ukraine. This article considers the impact on the European project.
ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI
Russia–Ukraine talks and the indispensable role of the US and Europe
The war in Ukraine is a catastrophic event that presents more risks than solutions. However, one thing stands firm for the author of this article: US and European involvement is a necessary condition for the establishment of a durable peace.
INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES
The United States and the Ukrainian crisis: implications for the internal arena and the great power competition
The response by the United States to the Ukrainian crisis is focused on efforts to send military aid, maintain and strengthen coordination with allies in Europe and NATO, and intensify the economic and political isolation of Russia. This article analyses the implications of the crisis for the US.
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH - CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES (OSW)
Chiński dylemat. Rosyjska inwazja na Ukrainę a sytuacja strategiczna Chin (A Chinese dilemma. The Russian invasion in Ukraine and the strategic situation of China)
The efficient resistance of Ukraine, the united European reaction and heavy sanctions on Russia are creating a new unfavourable strategic situation for China. The author reflects on a possible evolution of the Chinese stance towards the war.
GERMAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS (DGAP)
The China factor in Russia’s war : implications for Europe
In Russia’s war against Ukraine, the European Union supports Ukraine; China stands by Russia. While the conflict is exacerbating long-term regulatory, geopolitical, and economic divergences between the EU and China, their short-term priorities overlap. Both are striving for a negotiated solution. This analysis shows how the EU could defend its own values and interests, mind its long-term room for manoeuver, and learn to defuse tensions.
FRIENDS OF EUROPE
Keeping China out of the Ukraine conflict
This article states that keeping China out of the Ukraine-Russia conflict will be key for keeping global order, despite the damage already done to Ukraine. The author believes that liberal democracies can survive Putin’s Russia as long as it remains an isolated pariah; and Western diplomats should endeavour to achieve so.
AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE
The War in Ukraine: troubling lessons for Taiwan
In the light of the war in Ukraine, this article comments on the question for Taiwan of how far Europe and the United States would go to its aid in the event of an attack by China.
OBSERVER RESEARCH FOUNDATION
How do India’s choices on the Ukraine crisis affect its foreign relations?
The author considers the consequences of India's “balancing act” on the Russia-Ukraine war and its impact on India's security and geopolitical interests with regard to China.
LA FONDATION POUR LA RECHERCHE STRATÉGIQUE
L’ambivalence du Moyen-Orient face à la guerre en Ukraine
This paper analyses the position of some states, traditionally allies of the West, towards the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Countries such as Israel, Turkey or Egypt did not react or, at least at first, condemn the war in Ukraine. This has raised a series of questions about their view on the Russian aggression as well as their relations with Russia and suggests that the states in question are performing a balancing act between their American and Russian ally.
UTRIKESPOLITISKA INSTITUTET (SWEDISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
Russia’s war on Ukraine: consequences for Georgia and Moldova
This article looks at how Russia's unprovoked and illegal large-scale invasion of Ukraine has already had significant repercussions for the other two Eastern Partnership states with association agreements with the EU.
INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES
The Russian Bear and the Molotov Cocktail: the Palestinians and the crisis in Ukraine
While most Western countries condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine at the United National General Assembly, the Palestinian Authority remained silent. The Palestinians regard the Ukrainian struggle against the invasion as competing with them for international attention, claims this article.
INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES
The war in Ukraine and strategic hedging by Arab countries
Central Arab countries that are seen as pro-Western have chosen an ostensibly neutral position regarding the war in Ukraine. Several oil producers in the Gulf have gone even further and seek to take advantage of the war to improve their standing. This article comments on the hedging policy by Arab countries.
ISTITUTO PER GLI STUDI DI POLITICA INTERNAZIONALE
War in Ukraine: Asia takes sides
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has split Asia in two parts. On one side stand the most advanced economies in the region and the majority of Asian members; on the other side, countries like Vietnam, Sri Lanka and Pakistan that opted for neutrality, along with India and China. According to the author, such a division will affect the regional blocks in the making in the Indo-Pacific: China and the countries keen on containing China.
REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO ROYAL INSTITUTE)
La guerra y el resto del mundo
This article analyses how this war is not only a conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but also between the West and the East. Some actors are using this situation to move forward in their own external politics and security and historical vindications. For example, wounds in the relationship in between China and the US seem to be reopening. Global governance - such as the UN's - seems increasingly complicated and the world increasingly dangerous.
EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
Putin’s war on Ukraine: aftershocks in the Europe-Africa partnership
This articles studies how the Russian-Ukraine war looks set to create daunting challenges for African countries in areas such as food and energy security. The author encourages Europe to show solidarity with them.
EGMONT – ROYAL INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
Never waste a crisis: the war on Ukraine as a catalyst in the Balkans
This article looks at the Ukraine-Russia war as a warning to the leaders in the Western Balkans and as a catalyst for the EU. It is time for the first to move on and for the second to offer support, especially for the youth in the Balkans, and a clear prospect of membership.
EGMONT – ROYAL INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
A Russia strategy must look South: the Caucasus impacts Europe through the Eastern Mediterranean
This articles underlines the essentiality of a good neighbour relationship and coordination between the three seas - Baltic, Black and Mediterranean Seas- in order to improve and maintain an European security and prosperity, especially now on the face of the current events in between Ukraine and Russia.
23.3.2022
Almost one month after the invasion of Ukraine, think tanks consider the rising stakes in the struggle for democracy in Europe and beyond, and analyse the challenges of shaping an endgame, Ukraine’s application for EU membership, the nature of the war, including the cyber security threat, the use of disinformation and the role of cryptocurrencies. Others examine how the security crisis is turning into a massive humanitarian crisis, the situation of refugees in Poland and the implications of the war, especially in the security and energy domains, not only in Ukraine and the EU, but also on other regions in the world.
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR DEMOCRACY AND ELECTORAL ASSISTANCE
Increasing authoritarianism in some countries, such as Russia, coupled with gradual democratic erosion around the world, poses an exceptional threat to a rules-based global order, and consequently to peace and prosperity. The authors consider that the invasion of Ukraine is the most blatant and tragic realization of this threats.
INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES
The war in Ukraine: the challenge of shaping an endgame
The author considers that the longer the war continues, the chances increase for escalation to new levels that neither side wants. Therefore, before the situation is completely out of control, there must be a dialogue with Russia that can lead to an end to the war.
ZENTRUM LIBERALE MODERNE (CENTER FOR LIBERAL MODERNITY)
Zum Stand der russischen Invasion in der Ukraine – Was Deutschland jetzt tun kann und muss
The author gives a military expert analysis about Russian war targets, nuclear escalation, Ukrainian defence and why the date of April 1, 2022 is important from a Russian point of view.
FRIENDS OF EUROPE
The war in Ukraine: a crowd-sourced total global war?
The author sees in the world’s response to Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine the emergence of a new approach to countering authoritarian aggression or even a new approach to war itself. The famous Prussian theorist Carl von Clausewitz specifically said: “War is a mere continuation of policy ‘with the addition of other means’ (mit Einmischung anderer Mitteln).” This article claims the world is responding to Putin with the addition of other means like never before.
GERMAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS (DGAP)
The authors outline that in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the cyber threat landscape is quickly evolving. Now, Europe, the United States, and like-minded democracies must prepare for persistent “gray zone” conflict in their own cyberspaces.
INSTITUTE FOR PEACE SUPPORT AND CONFLICT MANAGEMENT
Security Turnaround after Ukraine: Regional and Institutional Implications
The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine represents a turning point for European and Austrian security policy. It calls into question previously established paradigms of international security and international crisis and conflict management. Regardless of the actual outcome of the war, this paper assumes a fundamental paradigm shift in international relations.
CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES (OSW)
Three weeks of war: Putin’s tactical dilemmas
Three weeks after the start of the war against Ukraine, the Kremlin’s political objectives have not been achieved. Taking into account the resistance from the Ukrainian armed forces persists, the morale of Ukrainian society remaining high, and the very serious sanctions imposed by the international community on Russia, this article considers the prospects for evolution of Russian policy.
EUROPEAN POLICY CENTRE & EGMONT ROYAL INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
The Versailles declaration, adopted by EU leaders on 10 and 11 March, acknowledges that Ukraine belongs to the ‘European family’. The Council has already invited the European Commission to submit its opinion in accordance with Article 49 TEU. The author notes that despite this support for – and recognition of – Ukraine’s application, the road to EU membership remains a long one.
STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK
Beitrittsgesuch der Ukraine setzt EU unter Druck
The paper discusses the consequences of Ukraine’s EU membership application.
INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS
¿Comprendemos la desinformación?: Rusia y la evolución de las medidas activas.
This article explores institutional practise of disinformation and looks in particular at the 'active measures' concept, born in 1963 in the URSS which, taking disinformation as a central element, approaches a broader spectrum of activities. It is argued that these kind of operations, key for external Russian politics during the Cold War, are still alive today. They have only evolved and revived.
FRIENDS OF EUROPE
Ukraine and the global whole-of-society response: a double-edged sword?
In past wars people often felt powerless, reading newspapers or watching on television as events unfolded far away. This article claims we are going through a new era of hyper-empowered citizens and private actors who can have very real influence on events and possibly even shape their outcomes, e.g. by debunking disinformation (for example, in Russia's media), sharing through social media, or hacking as a form of activism.
FRIENDS OF EUROPE
Putin’s war: driving Ukrainians into hunger - and the rest of the world as well
The article reflects on how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is turning a security crisis into a massive health and humanitarian crisis, not only for the 4.5mn Ukrainians displaced by the conflict thus far or the others being shelled into submission in several Ukrainian cities, but also for millions elsewhere in the world. For instance, many of the countries seeing their food insecurity grow by the day are countries in the Middle East and Africa that Putin has been courting of late.
INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP
Mitigating the gendered effects of Ukraine’s refugee crisis
Over three million Ukrainians have fled the Russian invasion that began on 24 February. While EU states have granted arrivals real benefits, Kyiv’s rule holding back conscription-age men increases dangers to the families leaving. This article discusses how states should ensure that all refugees get the help they need.
FORUM FOR RESEARCH ON EASTERN EUROPE AND EMERGING ECONOMIES (FREE NETWORK)
Ukrainian refugees in Poland: current situation and what to expect
The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine has forced millions to flee from the war zone. This brief addresses Ukrainian refuge in Poland. It provides an overview of the current situation, discusses the ongoing solutions and potential future challenges, and stresses the key areas for urgent policy intervention.
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES
Could the Ukraine crisis accelerate a longer-term policy shift away from fossil fuels?
The author analyses the impact of the Ukraine crisis. According to this article, the crisis will accelerate a shift to non-fossil-fuel energy sources.
CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
Cryptocurrency’s role in the Russia-Ukraine crisis
Finance typically plays a major role in wars, but the Russia-Ukraine war is the first major conflict with a prominent role for cryptocurrencies. The authors outline the prominence of crypto in this conflict, which could influence global perceptions of the technology, including among governments considering new regulations.
FRIENDS OF EUROPE
The need and opportunity for Europe’s energy independence
The imposed economic sanctions against Russia will be effective to a certain extent. The article claims that it is about time for Europe to come to a bold decision and pare down its dependency on Russian energy to zero. This is an extremely complicated decision, but the author argues that, as always, no geopolitical plan is viable if it is not economically feasible and sustainable, and vice versa.
INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES
Facing the Russian aggression of Ukraine, the European countries are reconsidering their energy situation and in particular their strong addiction to Russian fossil gas imports. While the United States have decided an embargo on oil and gas imports from Russia, many European countries are reluctant to follow, as this economic sanction on Russia would also have heavy economic consequences for countries that are highly dependent on Russia for their fossil fuels consumption.
ISTITUTO PER GLI STUDI DI POLITICA INTERNAZIONALE
Can the EU do without Russian gas?
Today, the European Union still relies on Russia for approximately 45% of its gas needs, with some EU countries – such as Italy – being more vulnerable than others. However, Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine is forcing Brussels to make difficult choices. This article analyses the arguments that affirm the EU can live without Russian gas, and also those saying it cannot.
BRUEGEL
Can Europe manage if Russian oil and coal are cut off ?
According to the authors, a stop to Russian oil and coal supplies would push Europe into a short and painful adjustment period. But if managed well, disruptions would remain temporary.
ISTITUTO PER GLI STUDI DI POLITICA INTERNAZIONALE
We will need a 'New Deal' to engage with a post-Putin Russia
As missiles and artillery shells rain mercilessly on Ukraine, the author suggests that policy analysts should ask themselves whether tougher Western sanctions are hardening rather than softening Russia’s resistance to peace talks.
ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI
Russian Energy Exports and the Conflict in Ukraine: What Options for Italy and the EU?
Putin’s war on Ukraine has shaken the European Union to its core. This paper considers that implications will be long lasting in numerous domains, but it is in the security and energy dimensions that concrete changes are already becoming evident as the EU fast tracks its strategy for energy diversification.
CHATHAM HOUSE
Ukraine crisis could trigger cascading risks globally
作者認為，烏克蘭戰爭對世界其他地區的影響遠遠超出了這場不斷升級的衝突所帶來的震驚和恐懼。
戰略研究基金會（法國）
本文重點分析了烏克蘭戰爭對波羅的海三國（如愛沙尼亞、拉脫維亞和立陶宛）以及鄰國波蘭的戰略影響，這些國家都與俄羅斯直接接壤，屬於北約成員國。不能排除這些國家成為俄羅斯軍事行動優先目標的可能性。
奧斯陸和平研究所
俄羅斯對烏克蘭發動大規模軍事入侵後，國際社會立即採取果斷行動，實施了一系列代價高昂的製裁。土耳其是拒絕效法制裁的國家之一，而是試圖在交戰雙方之間扮演調解人的角色。本文認為，土耳其的這種做法體現了其外交政策某些傾向的延續，旨在為土耳其爭取新的國際角色。
國際政治研究所
烏克蘭戰爭的影響遠不止於歐洲。在中東，俄烏對抗可能影響伊朗核談判。中斷11個月後，旨在重啟2015年伊核協議的談判因俄羅斯最後一刻提出的要求而受阻。本文將探討俄羅斯政府如何透過將伊朗核協議與烏克蘭戰爭聯繫起來，從而可能為談判蒙上陰影。
策略研究基金會
本文探討了印度對當前烏克蘭局勢的立場，以及其拒絕與莫斯科保持距離的做法。印度在聯合國大會就譴責俄羅斯侵略烏克蘭的決議進行投票時，第三次投了棄權票，便體現了這一點。文章也討論了莫斯科與新德里之間的關係，以及這些關係未來可能對印度產生的影響。
布勒哲爾
作者認為，中國若在烏克蘭問題上與俄羅斯結盟，損失將過於慘重。本文列舉了六個理由，說明中國為何應在烏克蘭的未來和全球穩定問題上採取建設性立場。
羅伯特舒曼
在歐盟2003年第五次擴大前夕，睦鄰政策啟動，旨在“避免歐洲出現新的分裂，促進穩定與繁榮”，並建立如今廣為人知的“友好圈”。根據這份簡報，於2009年5月7日建立的東部夥伴關係，如今正因俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭而遭到破壞。
2022年3月16日
自烏克蘭被入侵以來僅三週多，智庫們分析了全球地緣政治前所未有的轉變以及各國的立場；歐盟的應對措施，包括外交、安全或國防政策的可能和擬議變化；日益嚴重的人道主義危機以及歐盟在大規模平民流離失所的情況下啟動臨時保護機制；他們還評估了歐盟對俄羅斯天然氣的依賴、對俄羅斯經濟和金融影響的影響的影響。
埃格蒙特 – 皇家國際關係研究所
本文作者著重探討了2月24日之後，一些國家（例如中國）在世界格局已然分裂的情況下，如何定位自身所面臨的困境。完全置身事外似乎不可能，更遑論與俄國結盟。隨著制裁在全球經濟中持續發酵，中俄關係惡化的風險似乎正在增加。
CENTRUM STOSUNKÓW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH（國際關係中心）
作者認為，俄烏戰爭是重建新歐盟基礎的機會，並分析了北約、美國和其他參與者在結束衝突中的作用。
丹麥國際研究院/丹麥國際研究院
儘管烏克蘭國內政治動盪，但在後蘇聯時期，烏克蘭很少成為歐盟安全議程的首要議題。本文探討了當前俄羅斯軍事幹預的規模如何改變了這一局面，將戰爭推到了歐盟家門口，並挑戰了歐盟先前對俄羅斯採取的寬鬆態度——歐盟一直拒絕將俄羅斯視為潛在的侵略者。
查塔姆研究所
作者提出了一系列措施，這些措施可以構成一個連貫的戰略，以阻止俄羅斯進一步犯下暴行，防止其侵略烏克蘭以外的地區，抵禦其在全球範圍內的威脅，並追究其責任。
國際危機組織
包括烏克蘭總統澤倫斯基在內的一些現任和前任官員呼籲西方國家在烏克蘭設立禁飛區。本文將解釋禁飛區的意義、以往設立類似禁飛區的經驗，以及在烏克蘭實施禁飛區可能帶來的風險。
PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE OSLO
Should Ukraine Have Kept Soviet Nuclear Weapons?
Following the Soviet Union collapse in 1991, the stockpile of Soviet nuclear weapons left in Ukraine comprised what was then the world’s third largest nuclear arsenal. Ukraine later transferred these to Russia, the authors consider whether this was the right choice.
CYPRUS CENTER FOR EUROPEAN AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
The current Russo-Ukrainian crisis has brought unprecedented, historic, nodal milestones for the international community, in international relations and global geopolitics. According to this paper, this significantly influences the course of the 21st century political history, by irrevocably altering the international equilibrium and becoming the landmark of a new era in international relations and global politics.
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES
The EU grants temporary protection for people fleeing war in Ukraine
To respond to the sudden large-scale displacement of people from Ukraine, the 2001 EU Temporary Protection Directive has been activated for the first time. This paper examines the key issues and questions raised, drawing on lessons learned or ‘not to be learned’ from policies adopted by countries such as Turkey and others in South America, that have previously responded to large-scale displacements. The paper argues that the solidarity principle enshrined in the EU Treaties needs to be substantially re-thought and revisited.
TERRA NOVA
My enemy’s doctor is not my enemy
The law of war explicitly prohibit attacks on places of care, personnel or patients in armed conflicts. This article considers the precedents in Grozny (Chechnya) and Aleppo (Syria), which have raised the concerns of the WHO and international observers.
HERTIE SCHOOL/JACQUES DELORS CENTRE
Same shock, different effects EU member states’ exposure to the economic consequences of Putin’s war
This brief takes a very first look at potential differences in exposure, focusing on direct trade links, potential costs of energy dependence on Russia and vulnerabilities towards rising energy prices more generally. It shows that the EU member states’ economic vulnerability to the Russian invasion of Ukraine is very unevenly distributed.
CIDOB
War in Ukraine and the gas crisis force a rethink of EU foreign policy
The paper argues that EU member states dependence on Russian supplies make gas a key factor in the crisis provoked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The crisis will force a major rethink of Europe’s gas security over the next decade including diversifying outside sources of gas, increasing gas exchanges within Europe, and ensuring that gas stocks are much higher.
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES)
The EU gas market and policy and the war in Ukraine
In the light of the strong dependence of the EU on Russian gas, the commentary examines the risks caused by tensions over the Ukraine-Russia crisis for the EU gas market stability. The assessment of the European Commission's new plan REPowerEU is also included.
CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE
This article examines the implications for global payment flows of the sanctions on Russia, explaining how SWIFT works. In particular, it notes concern that Beijing sees the Ukraine crisis as its opportunity to gain influence over financial markets.
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG
Why more economic and financial sanctions against Russia are inevitable and energy tops the list
Comprehensive financial sanctions against Russia, going well beyond the SWIFT exclusion often thought of as a “final stage,” were implemented swiftly and arguably more drastically than Moscow expected. They have significantly damaged the Russian public sector balance sheet and local financial markets. This post analyses the implications of further sanctions.
AMERICAN INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH
Are Gold Rubles Gold or Rubles?
This article reflects on the possibility of the appearance of a new parallel currency to the ruble, due to hyperinflation: gold. With the invasion of Ukraine, sanctions to Russia and firms severing business ties with Russia, its connections to the global economy have been damaged. This happened in 1992 and the author considers it possible it is happening again.
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG
Agricultural Production in Ukraine and Russia: Economic Implications for Europe
Both Ukraine and Russia are among the largest producers of agricultural goods in the world today, especially for grains and sunflowers. As the Russian war against Ukraine endangers this agricultural production, the rest of the world can no longer rely on commodities sourced from these countries. This article provides an overview of the economic relevance and the expected effects of these circumstances on prices and on European production and outlines their implications for the agricultural goals of the European Green Deal.
INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES
Germany and the Ukraine crisis: end of the age of illusions
There seems to be no country in Europe where the Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused a greater systemic upheaval than in Germany, writes the author. The invasion roused Germany from the illusions that have guided its dealings with Russia since the 1970s – the “Ostpolitik” (eastern) policy.
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG
This article analyses the new German government’s historic break with long-established foreign and security policy tenets and what it signifies for German foreign policy. Invoking the far-reaching German word of “Zeitenwende” (turning point), Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced the unexpected and unprecedented increase in defence spending in his seminal speech at the German Bundestag.
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG
Mögliche wirtschaftliche Auswirkungen des Ukrainekriegs auf Deutschland
Possible economic impact of the Ukraine war on Germany
The article discusses possible consequences of the war on Ukraine for the German economy. The author goes into detail about existing economic interdependencies between Russia and Germany and how they might be affected by the war and further sanctions.
CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES (OSW)
Germany and the trade conflict between Lithuania & China
The Chinese government’s trade boycott of Lithuania risks causing economic losses for Germany, which is particularly exposed to the effects of the Lithuanian-Chinese dispute, and weakening the cohesion of the EU’s common market. This article comments on the likely reaction by Berlin given its huge dependence on the Chinese market and the differences of opinion within the government on what direction its Beijing policy should take.
ELINKEINOELÄMÄN TUTKIMUSLAITOS (RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF THE FINNISH ECONOMY)
The Significance of Russia for Finnish Companies
This policy brief analyses the importance of Russia on the Finnish economy. The authors scrutinize both the trade relations and the presence of Finnish firms in Russia and that of Russian firms in Finland.
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES
Why the Ukraine crisis should push the UK and EU into a tighter embrace on security policy
According to this policy brief, one of the costs of Brexit is the weakened ability of both the UK and the EU to shape a strong joint response to Russia’s threats to pan-European security. In the standoff over Ukraine, the need for close cross-Channel cooperation is particularly acute for any effective sanctions package negotiated with the US.
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES)
Caution and anticipation: Turkey and the Russo-Ukrainian war
The commentary analyses Turkey’s attitude towards the Russia-Ukraine war, which is essentially in line with NATO’s position on the conflict, but also void of any actions or rhetoric which would clearly strike at Russia’s interests. The tangible threat that the war in Ukraine poses to Turkey’s internal stability is also examined.
KONRAD ADENAUER STIFTUNG
Der Russische Angriffskrieg gegen die Ukraine – Reaktionen auf dem Westbalkan
The Russian War of Aggression against Ukraine – Reactions in the Western Balkans
All the countries of the Western Balkans voted in favour of the resolution in UN Resolution General Assembly on 2 March condemning Russia's actions. This report considers the varying positions in the Western Balkans region, which has complicated historical, political, economic and social relations with Russia, but also with Ukraine.
PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE OSLO
Will Taiwan Be the Next Ukraine?
The authors analyse similarities and differences of Ukraine’s and Taiwan’s positions in the world picture.
INSTITUTE FOR SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT POLICY
How Is India’s Silent Diplomacy Navigating the Russia-Ukraine War?
The author assesses how New Delhi has sought to navigate between expressing veiled concern for the Russian invasion and maintaining an important strategic and security relationship.
INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES
The Russian invasion of Ukraine: legal aspects
The legal channels will not stop the advance of the Russian army, but they are important in terms of the message they send to Russia and the whole world. Israel, which has seemed to lean to sitting on the fence, must join the international efforts against Russia, Otherwise it is liable to find itself on the wrong side of history, claims this article.
9.3.2022
Providing their first assessments of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, think tanks report on the united response of the Western bloc and the unfolding humanitarian crisis; assess the policy and security implications for the EU and the impact for the Middle East, North Africa, Serbia, and India; and analyse the strategic goals of Moscow, the involvement of Belarus and the impact of economic sanctions.
CENTER FOR SECURITY STUDIES (CSS)
This issue collects first assessments of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on the 24th of February 2022.
INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP
War in Europe: responding to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
This paper considers how Russia’s assault on Ukraine threatens to become the largest European conflict in decades. A vigorous but judicious Western and global response is critical to limit the damage.
UTRIKESPOLITISKA INSTITUTET (SWEDISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
Some preliminary thoughts on the policy implications of the Russian aggression
Thursday 24 February 2022 is, and will be understood as, a watershed in European and global modern history. This article considers various implications of the full-scale military attack on and aggression against a neighbouring state of almost 45 million inhabitants by the world’s leading nuclear weapon power – and a permanent member of the UN Security Council.
UTRIKESPOLITISKA INSTITUTET (SWEDISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
Russia's “soft annexation” of Belarus during its invasion of Ukraine
This article examines how Russia has for all intents and purposes also taken control of Belarus militarily, as a side-line to its unprecedented military build-up on the land borders of Ukraine and its invasion of Ukraine on 24 February.
INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES
根據這項分析，普丁入侵烏克蘭的行為已經明顯擾亂了二戰以來形成的國際秩序。西方陣營已經開始重新調整，並對莫斯科採取統一而強硬的立場。以色列再也無法迴避明確表態，必須全力支持反對俄羅斯的國家。
巴塞隆納國際事務中心
Oriente Medio y el Norte de África ante la guerra en Ucrania: vasos comunicantes
繼歐洲之後，中東和北非地區將首當其沖地感受到烏克蘭戰爭的影響，主要體現在能源和糧食價格方面。本文也分析了其他更深層的關聯，例如外交博弈、伊朗核計畫談判及其對整個地區衝突動態的影響。
義大利國際政治研究所
本文作者報導了澤連斯基呼籲外國人加入對抗俄羅斯的戰鬥並承諾在他們抵達後提供武器後引發的一些擔憂。文章回顧了頓巴斯戰爭以及大量外國武裝人員湧入的情況，並指出這種情況再次發生的風險。
CENTAR ZA EVROPSKE POLITIKE（歐洲政策中心）
烏克蘭和俄羅斯處於戰爭狀態。這對歐盟與塞爾維亞的未來關係意味著什麼？
作者們思考了烏克蘭當前局勢將如何影響塞爾維亞與歐盟的關係，並考慮了塞爾維亞與俄羅斯的密切聯繫。
義大利國際政治研究所
這篇簡報探討了中東和北非國家對烏克蘭-俄羅斯衝突的不同反應，指出除俄羅斯外交部長拉皮德外，這些國家普遍對譴責俄羅斯的行為持謹慎態度。作者也簡要地概述了這場戰爭對中東和北非地區的影響。
歐洲之友
本文指出，現在是時候摒棄懷疑態度，制定一套連貫的西方戰略來應對俄羅斯的侵略。文章探討了這是否會成為與法國、比荷盧經濟聯盟、波蘭和義大利等鄰國，甚至與脫歐後的英國建立更緊密整合的歐洲聯盟的機會。
西班牙研究學院 (IEEE)
在烏克蘭戰爭之前，波羅的海三國對俄羅斯的威脅主要將其理解為政治或經濟層面的問題。而如今，作者認為這種威脅更體現在軍事層面。本文著重闡述了波羅的海三國和斯堪的納維亞半島日益增強的軍事實力，其目的是為了確保自身免受地區盟友的威脅。
埃爾卡諾皇家學院
烏克蘭的政府穩定和國際秩序正面臨威脅，人民安全和國家安全也岌岌可危。作者認為，對技術基礎設施的控制在其中起著至關重要的作用。因此，分析烏克蘭應對俄羅斯可能劫持其數位基礎設施的能力，以及烏克蘭在哪些情況下（尤其是在與其他國家合作的情況下）能夠更好地保護其數據，至關重要。
CENTRUM STOSUNKÓW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH（國際關係中心）
本文探討了新德里在戰爭中的立場以及印度親俄傾向，這種傾向既源自於其與莫斯科久經考驗的友誼，也出於地緣政治的需要。然而，文章認為，印度在打破僵局方面擁有很大的空間，以避免被視為共犯。
CENTRUM STOSUNKÓW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH（國際關係中心）
與克里姆林宮的預期相反，西方在應對烏克蘭戰爭方面採取了統一戰線。本文認為，這種對莫斯科採取強硬措施的能力至關重要，因為這關係到烏克蘭的存亡以及整個中東歐地區的自由。文章還概述了烏克蘭可能面臨的各種局面以及由此產生的全球戰略後果。
科學與政治基金會
本文探討了莫斯科入侵烏克蘭的戰略目標，以及避免局勢進一步升級的必要性，同時考慮到俄羅斯與北約之間的安全協議和當前的歐洲安全秩序。
科學與政治基金會
Moskau bedroht die Balance im hohen Norden
俄羅斯對烏克蘭的攻擊並非基於正當的安全利益，而是對歐洲安全秩序的否定。作者認為，俄羅斯要求更多考慮自身安全利益的做法，結果卻適得其反。俄羅斯的施壓產生了一種悖論式的效果，即促使芬蘭和瑞典更加靠近北約。
貝塔斯曼基金會
將俄羅斯央行排除在SWIFT系統之外是可以接受的，但制裁俄羅斯央行更好。
文章分析了歐盟對俄羅斯實施的經濟制裁。
貝塔斯曼基金會
本文概述了對俄羅斯實施經濟制裁對歐洲和俄羅斯經濟的影響。
法國國際關係學院
本文探討了俄羅斯發動對烏克蘭高強度戰爭的目標，其目的顯然不僅限於頓巴斯地區，也並非旨在獲取新的領土。文章認為，這很可能是一場旨在推翻烏克蘭政權的大規模行動，目的是在基輔扶植一個能確保其服從和安全的政權。
法國國際關係學院
該分析認為，俄烏危機考驗著新組成的「交通燈聯盟」的凝聚力、朔爾茨總理的權威以及德國在梅克爾時代之後調整外交政策的雄心。
克林根達爾－荷蘭國際關係研究所
鳳凰還是伊卡洛斯？ CRU政策簡報：烏克蘭背景下的歐洲戰略自主
在各方關注俄羅斯在烏克蘭的下一步之際，歐洲戰略自主的概念正在復興。本文對這個概念進行了探討，並得出結論：目前流行的做法是廣泛使用「歐盟戰略自主」一詞，這可能會不必要地助長民粹主義和民族主義。
克林根達爾－荷蘭國際關係研究所
2月24日，弗拉基米爾·普丁發動烏克蘭戰爭，震驚世界。在俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭之前，普丁發表了一系列深遠的演講，並撰寫了一篇文章來為其行動辯護——這些演講和文章充斥著對帝國主義和蘇聯歷史的激烈論述。本文將探討自普丁就任總統以來，他是如何一貫地利用歷史來實現其政策目標的。
海牙戰略研究中心
戰略穩定正面臨來自不斷變化的軍事和政治環境的壓力：主要戰略行為體的數量增加；飛彈防禦系統不斷發展；戰場範圍擴大。核武庫也在不斷擴充和多樣化。然而，作者認為，對於我們已經進入新一輪軍備競賽的警告應持謹慎態度，並且與一些分析人士的觀點相反，技術進步並未從根本上破壞戰略穩定。
卡內基國際和平基金會
俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭將對該地區的穩定和歐洲未來的安全產生深遠影響，更不用說由此造成的巨大人道災難。在本文中，卡內基歐洲中心的學者將評估這項軍事行動將如何從根本上改變後冷戰時代。
德國外交關係協會 (DGAP)
迄今為止，已有約44.2萬人逃離烏克蘭──他們不僅湧向歐盟，也逃往摩爾多瓦等鄰國。這是一個人道主義問題，不應與「移民工具化」（MI）混為一談。所謂“移民工具化”，是指一國強迫民眾越過邊境，以此脅迫歐盟改變立場。然而，俄羅斯很可能以這種方式運用“移民工具化”，尤其是在其深入烏克蘭西部地區的情況下。本政策簡報基於一項深入研究，闡述了歐盟如何應對這項具體威脅。
倫敦政經學院
本文對克里姆林宮自 2014 年以來關於烏克蘭的言論進行了背景分析。文章檢視了俄羅斯對北約擴張的抱怨的內容和準確性，並探討了普丁考慮攻擊烏克蘭的其他動機，特別是「民族主義收復主義」。
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH（東方研究中心）
本文作者對這場剛爆發的戰爭及其後果的各個方面進行了全面的分析。文章也提及了資訊情勢（烏克蘭國內的新聞通報方式）和經濟後果。
本文評論了西方對俄羅斯的製裁方案及其對俄羅斯金融體系的影響。
戰略與國際研究中心
本研究旨在揭露俄羅斯在歐洲和歐亞大陸惡意影響的新戰線：利用價值觀、傳統和宗教信仰來分裂西方社會或製造分裂。
發展與國際關係研究所
2022年2月刊的IRMO簡報由佐蘭·梅特撰寫，探討了2020年總統選舉後至今的白俄羅斯局勢。作者也分析了白俄羅斯對俄羅斯的支持將如何助長俄羅斯在烏克蘭的野心。
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