|專欄作家Karishma Vaswani
無論有沒有關稅，台灣都面臨圍攻
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正當台灣迫切需要團結起來共同維護其未來的時候，川普的交易外交卻有可能使台灣陷入孤立。北京會利用任何漏洞。僅僅依靠白宮政府的意願來獲得保護就等於拿自己的未來賭博。台灣可能正遭受圍困，但它並非沒有選擇來鞏固自身的安全。
川普的交易外交有可能在島國急需團結一致共度未來的時候孤立島國。北京會利用任何裂縫。純粹依賴白宮政府的奇思妙想來保護台灣，意味著拿自己的未來做賭注。台灣可能受到圍困，但它並非沒有鞏固自身安全的選擇。
Trump’s transactional diplomacy threatens to isolate the island just when solidarity around its future is urgently needed. Beijing will exploit any cracks. Depending simply on the whims of the administration in the White House for protection means gambling with its own future. Taiwan may be under siege, but it’s not without options to cement its own security.
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重點：
貿易戰與地緣政治壓力：川普的關稅政策加劇中美緊張關係，間接對台灣構成壓力，但台灣的脆弱性並非僅因關稅，而是來自中國多方面的長期「圍困」。
中國的「蟒蛇策略」：中國通過軍事（戰機、海岸警衛船）、經濟、外交及心理戰（AI假訊息、間諜活動）等方式，試圖不戰而勝，迫使台灣統一。2027年被認為是潛在衝突時間點。
中國軍事準備：解放軍快速現代化，擁有全球最大海上力量，近期展示登陸能力，雖短期內全面入侵可能性低，但封鎖或隔離更有可能。
台灣內部挑戰：內部政治分歧（民進黨與國民黨僵局）導致國防預算延宕，間諜案件增加，社會因假訊息分裂，削弱應對能力。
川普政策的不確定性：中國可能利用川普的「交易型」外交，台灣若過度依賴美國保護，恐陷入風險。
台灣的應對策略：
軍事與社會準備：加強國防（飛彈防禦、不對稱武器）、延長徵兵制、學習芬蘭與瑞典的全民防衛模式。
對抗假訊息：提升媒體素養與公眾意識，應對中國的資訊戰。
政治團結：總統賴清德需化解內部紛爭，推動國防立法。
自力更生：在美國承諾不明確下，台灣需優先提升自我防衛能力。
機會與風險：90天關稅寬限為台灣爭取談判空間，賴清德希望與川普達成貿易與安全保障協議，但過分依賴美國風險高。
結論：台灣面臨中國多面向威脅，需加速內部團結、國防現代化及全民備戰，減少對美國的依賴，以確保自身安全與自主性。
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這篇文章的重點可以歸納為以下幾點：
台灣面臨多重威脅：
中國正在加強軍事活動，包括派遣戰機和海警船，以及可能發展兩棲登陸能力。
中國正在透過間諜活動和人工智慧生成的假訊息，從內部削弱台灣。
中國正在對台灣的數位基礎建設，例如海底通訊電纜，發動攻擊。
美國的政策不確定性：
川普的貿易戰和其不可預測的外交政策，可能被中國利用來對台灣施加壓力。
美國缺乏明確的安全保障，使得台灣的處境更加危險。
台灣需要加強自衛能力：
台灣需要加強軍事能力，通過國防預算，並為公民做好長期應對中國侵略的準備。
台灣需要採取「全社會韌性」策略，包括公民培訓和民防措施，並加強媒體識讀教育，以應對中國的假訊息攻擊。
台灣內部應當團結，不應當讓內鬥阻礙國防的計劃。
台灣不能僅依賴美國的保護：
台灣必須優先考慮自力更生，並努力通過國防預算。
台灣應當積極與美國進行談判，以期取得貿易的緩解，並同時取得安全上的保障。
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貿易戰加劇了北京和華盛頓之間的緊張關係。台北需要做更多準備。
卡里什瑪·瓦斯瓦尼 (Karishma Vaswani) 是彭博觀點專欄作家，主要報導亞洲政治，尤其關注中國。此前，她曾擔任BBC亞洲區首席主持人，在BBC亞洲及南亞地區工作了二十年。
中國可以利用川普關稅的漏洞向台灣施壓。
攝影師：I-Hwa Cheng/彭博社認為 唐納德·川普的貿易戰增加了中國入侵台灣的風險是有道理的，因為它給北京增加了壓力。但這個自治島嶼並沒有因為關稅而變得更脆弱。它已在多個方面遭受大陸的圍攻。
台北長期以來一直是地緣政治的焦點。如果不更緊急地應對這些威脅，它現在就有可能失去來之不易的自治權。這意味著要加強軍事能力，通過早就應該通過的國防預算，並讓公民做好可能長期遭受大陸侵略的準備。它已經投資了飛彈防禦系統和 非對稱武器，並延長了徵兵服務。但這些威懾措施的進展並不均衡。
一些分析人士猜測，由於華盛頓分心， 川普的關稅是否會加速中國統一的時間表。北京一直在加強 軍事活動。中國已向該島周圍派遣大量戰機和海岸警衛隊船隻。戰略家們將這一行動稱為“蟒蛇戰略”，即從軍事、經濟、外交和心理上扼殺台灣，最終迫使台灣在不正式宣戰的情況下實現統一。
北京顯然正在為對抗做準備。中國人民解放軍目前是世界上最大的海上作戰力量，並且正在繼續快速現代化。最近拍攝的新駁船影片 顯示，中國可能已經具備向台灣海岸運送數萬名士兵和重型裝備的能力。能力並不等於意圖，但這些圖像提醒我們北京的野心。不過，大多數軍事專家認為，最可能的情況是隔離或封鎖，而不是全面的兩棲攻擊，據信目前超出了解放軍的能力範圍。台灣情報部門稱，2027年可能是攻擊的潛在目標日期。
大陸的防禦建設不僅具有破壞性， 而且也正在從內部削弱島嶼的力量。去年，台灣對間諜行為的起訴數量大幅增加，尤其是針對軍事人員的間諜行為。北京正在利用人工智慧製造的假資訊活動來分裂台灣社會，並攻擊海底通訊電纜，切斷數位基礎設施以孤立台灣。這些行動符合古代戰爭哲學家孫子提出的「不戰而勝」的思想，並受到國家主席習近平的青睞。
台灣自身的政治也可能讓中國大陸佔了上風。執政的民進黨與反對黨國民黨在議會中陷入僵局，導致關鍵的國防立法被推遲。不確定的環境和美國缺乏安全保障可能正中習近平下懷，讓台灣人相信 ，在北京的懷抱裡比在華盛頓的懷抱裡更安全。
僅僅依靠這一點是危險的。賴清德現在應該運用他的政治技巧，讓反對黨達成協議，而不是讓內鬥破壞安全規劃。在美國缺乏持續的以美國為主導的遏制中國的努力的情況下，台北需要優先考慮自力更生，並努力通過國防預算。
芬蘭和瑞典等國家花了幾十年時間準備應對俄羅斯的侵略威脅，他們的經驗教訓很有啟發。台灣已開始實施全社會復原力方法，包括公民訓練和民防措施。這將有助於應對潛在的攻擊。過去，由於擔心驚嚇公民，這些努力一直被淡化。現在認識到緊迫性是一種進步，而且應該繼續下去。
台北也應以協調的方式應對北京的人工智慧虛假宣傳活動，並對民眾進行教育。其中一些已經發生，但加強媒體素養運動和公眾意識計劃可以幫助人們認識到威脅的規模。
正當台灣迫切需要團結起來共同維護其未來的時候，川普的交易外交卻有可能使台灣陷入孤立。北京會利用任何漏洞。僅僅依靠白宮政府的意願來獲得保護就等於拿自己的未來賭博。台灣可能正遭受圍困，但它並非沒有選擇來鞏固自身的安全。
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卡里什瑪·瓦斯瓦尼 (Karishma Vaswani)是彭博觀點專欄作家，主要報導亞洲政治，特別關注中國。此前，她曾擔任BBC亞洲區首席主持人，在BBC亞洲及南亞地區工作了二十年。
Karishma Vaswani is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asia politics with a special focus on China. Previously, she was the BBC's lead Asia presenter and worked for the BBC across Asia and South Asia for two decades.
Taiwan Is Under Siege With or Without Tariffs
The trade war is ratcheting up tensions between Beijing and Washington. Taipei needs to be more prepared.
Karishma Vaswani is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asia politics with a special focus on China. Previously, she was the BBC's lead Asia presenter and worked for the BBC across Asia and South Asia for two decades.
China can exploit cracks from Trump’s tariffs to pressure Taiwan.
Photographer: I-Hwa Cheng/BloombergIt makes sense to think that Donald Trump’s trade war is increasing the risk for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan because it adds pressure on Beijing. But the self-ruled island isn’t more vulnerable because of the tariffs. It’s already under siege from the mainland on multiple fronts.
Taipei has long been a geopolitical flashpoint. It now risks losing its hard-won autonomy if it doesn’t confront these threats with greater urgency. That means strengthening military capabilities, passing a long overdue defense budget, and preparing citizens for a possibly prolonged period of mainland aggression. It has already invested in missile defense systems and asymmetric weaponry, and extended the conscription service. But progress on these deterrence measures has been uneven.
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Some analysts have speculated whether Trump’s tariffs will accelerate China’s timeline for unification because Washington is distracted. Beijing has been ramping up military activities. It has sent a surging number of warplanes and coast guard vessels around the island. Strategists have referred to this campaign as an “anaconda strategy,” a way to strangle Taiwan militarily, economically, diplomatically and psychologically, eventually forcing unification without ever having to formally declare war.
Beijing is clearly preparing for confrontation. The People’s Liberation Army is now the world’s largest maritime fighting force and continues to modernize rapidly. Recent video footage of new barges suggests it may have developed the capacity to land tens of thousands of troops and heavy equipment on Taiwan’s shores. Capability doesn’t equal intent, but the images are a reminder of Beijing’s ambitions. Still, most military experts agree the most likely scenario would be a quarantine or a blockade, not a full-scale amphibious assault, which is believed to be beyond the PLA’s reach for now. Taiwanese intelligence says 2027 could be a potential target date for an attack.
As destructive as this defense buildup is, the mainland also is weakening the island from within. In the last year, prosecutions for espionage, particularly among military personnel, have soared in Taiwan. And Beijing is using AI-created disinformation campaigns to divide Taiwanese society as well as targeting undersea communications cables, cutting off digital infrastructure to isolate the island. These operations fit with the idea of “winning without fighting,” as outlined by the ancient philosopher of war Sun Tzu, and favored by President Xi Jinping.
China is likely to exploit Trump’s unpredictability to its advantage, noted Xin Qiang, an academic at Fudan University, on a recent Asia Society podcast before tariffs went into effect. Beijing sees Trump as transactional, which makes him dangerous but also possibly useful, he suggests.
Taiwan’s own politics may also be giving China the upper hand. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party is gridlocked with the opposition Kuomintang party in parliament, delaying critical defense legislation. The uncertain environment and America’s lack of security guarantees could play directly into Xi’s hands, convincing the Taiwanese they may be safer in Beijing’s embrace rather than Washington’s.
The 90-day reprieve from the tariffs on America’s trading partners is a chance for negotiation. President Lai Ching-te is hoping the deal he’s offering Trump will be enough to not just secure trade relief, but guarantees security ties too.
Relying on that alone is dangerous. It’s time for Lai to use his political skills to get opposition parties to come to an agreement, and not allow infighting to derail security planning. In the absence of a consistent American-led effort to deter China, Taipei needs to prioritize self-reliance, and work to pass the defense budget.
Lessons from countries like Finland and Sweden, which spent decades preparing for the threat of Russian aggression, are instructive. Taiwan is already implementing a whole-of-society resilience approach, including citizen training and civil defense measures. This will help in preparations for a potential attack. In the past, these efforts were downplayed out of fear of spooking citizens. Acknowledging the urgency now is progress, and should continue.
Taipei should also counter Beijing’s AI disinformation campaigns in a coordinated manner, and educate the population. Some of this is already happening, but boosting media literacy campaigns and public awareness programs could help bring home the scale of the threat.
Trump’s transactional diplomacy threatens to isolate the island just when solidarity around its future is urgently needed. Beijing will exploit any cracks. Depending simply on the whims of the administration in the White House for protection means gambling with its own future. Taiwan may be under siege, but it’s not without options to cement its own security.
More From Bloomberg Opinion:
- Taiwan Has a Roadmap for Deeper US Trade Ties: Lai Ching-te
- The Only Thing Dumber Than a Trade War Would Be a Real One: The Editorial Board
- US Defense Is Collateral Damage in the Trade War: James Stavridis
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This column reflects the personal views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
Karishma Vaswani is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asia politics with a special focus on China. Previously, she was the BBC's lead Asia presenter and worked for the BBC across Asia and South Asia for two decades.
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