Opinion
Guest Essay
台灣的時鐘正在流逝
The Clock Is Ticking for Taiwan
2025年4月1日
圖片來源...Ann Wang/Reuters
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作者：龍應台
龍女士是台灣前文化部部長，她從台灣台東撰文。
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台灣的計程車司機是出了名的健談，最近我在島上南部的計程車後座坐定後，我的計程車司機轉過身來，開朗地問我今天過得如何，然後他突然宣布：「今天是烏克蘭，明天是台灣」。
他所說的是自從美國總統川普撤回對烏克蘭的強力支持，並於二月下旬在白宮羞辱烏克蘭總統澤倫斯基（Volodymyr Zelensky）後，全台灣共同的憂慮。現在台灣人都在想： 如果美國可以這樣對待烏克蘭，以迎合俄羅斯，那麼它是否也會這樣對待我們，以迎合中國？
數十年來，台灣領導人一直將我們與中國的對峙（中國聲稱台灣是其領土，並誓言在必要時以武力奪取台灣）說成是為了捍衛自由和民主，並期望在中國入侵時美國會支援我們。這製造了一種錯誤的安全感，讓台灣的政治人物和人民得以延遲全國清算我們對付中國的最佳方式，以確保我們民主的長期生存。
隨著川普先生將民主價值和美國的朋友拋在一旁，台灣必須立即展開嚴肅的全國性對話，討論如何以我們可以接受的條件與中國達成和平，而不是讓更大的強權決定我們的未來。
在網路上的評論和日常對話中，台灣人民對美國對台灣的承諾表達越來越多的懷疑和詢問： 如果美國似乎不再願意支持像烏克蘭這樣的友邦捍衛其自由，那麼那些為國家而戰、而死的數萬名烏克蘭年輕人是否都白白犧牲了？一個深受台灣大學生歡迎的線上平台在三月初進行了一次非正式的民意調查，詢問受訪者在烏克蘭的最新發展下，是否仍願意保衛台灣以抵抗中國的攻擊，或是選擇投降。大多數人選擇投降。
台灣總統賴清德似乎對這些情緒視而不見。他非但沒有與台灣各方聯繫，就我們應該採取的方向展開緊急的全國討論，反而走向恐懼、對抗和冷戰時期黑暗言論的復甦。
3 月 13 日，賴清德以中國的間諜、顛覆和軍事威脅為由，正式將中國標籤為「外國敵對勢力」，並承諾加強審查與中國的商業、文化和其他方面的聯繫。他還宣佈計劃恢復軍事法庭制度，以起訴台灣現役人員涉嫌的國家安全罪行，該制度因人權問題於 2013 年被廢除。台灣的主要反對黨--國民黨--指責賴清德將台灣推向戰爭，而中國可預見地警告他是在 「玩火」。
賴清德先生的做法的問題是，台灣不能再依靠美國的支持。這不是因為川普先生，我們現在才意識到的，他除了背叛烏克蘭之外，已經對他捍衛台灣的承諾埋下疑慮，甚至指控我們從美國偷走半導體業務。
我們早已痛定思痛，知道美國和任何國家一樣，都會把自己的利益放在第一位。各個年齡層的台灣人都知道1978年12月16日發生了什麼事，當時我們的總統蔣經國在凌晨兩點被驚醒，並被告知美國將與台灣斷絕外交關係，以承認中華人民共和國，將我們--冷戰時期的盟友--拋棄在日益加深的外交孤立中。川普先生粗暴的做法只是風格上的不同，而非實質上的不同。
隨著中國日益壯大，而美國背棄世界，台灣建立軍隊以阻嚇攻擊是正確的。但台灣和平確保自由的唯一方法是以某種方式與中國和解。最近的歷史顯示這是可以實現的。
數十年來，台灣與中國之間隔閡深厚，基本上處於戰爭狀態。但冷戰結束後，兩岸關係逐漸解凍。2008 年至 2016 年，在國民黨馬英九擔任總統期間，兩岸關係處於最佳狀態。國民黨強調與中國合作，以確保台灣的穩定與繁榮。
在馬先生執政期間，學術、文化和商業交流蓬勃發展，並在 2015 年與中國國家主席習近平的歷史性會面中達到巔峰。經過幾十年的敵對，和解似乎是有可能的。
但這扇窗很快就關閉了。台灣公眾對於與中國關係升溫的疑慮與日俱增，尤其是在中國以嚴厲的鎮壓回應香港自 2014 年開始的民主抗爭之後，這種鎮壓持續至今。台灣的民主進步黨有理由不信任中國，並強調保護島嶼主權，該黨於 2016 年贏得總統大位，並一直擔任至今。與中國的關係重回對立和恐懼。
但恐懼也許才是我們最大的敵人。恐懼滋生仇恨和不信任，以至於在台灣的政治論述中，即使建議與中國和平相處，也會被視為天真、不愛國，或者更糟的是，被視為投降和背叛。
恐懼也會產生加強控制的衝動，也就是賴先生現在所追求的那種。1950 年代我在台灣長大，當時我們生活在戒嚴之下，時常害怕中國的入侵。今天日益緊張的氛圍 - 台灣購買美國武器、賴清德挑釁性地將中國標籤為敵人、冷戰時期式的與中國交流的猜疑回歸 - 都讓人感到回到那個時代的不安，威脅到和平以及台灣在建立開放、民主社會上所取得的進展。
對台灣而言，時鐘正在滴答作響。川普先生和習近平先生預計將在不久的某個時候會面。在烏克蘭事件發生之後，川普先生很有可能為了與習先生達成貿易或地緣政治交易而將台灣擱在一旁。
幾乎所有台灣人都想保護我們珍視的自由。我們的分歧在於如何實現這一目標 - 通過與中國和解或對抗。但有一點現在很清楚：
完全依賴美國，同時拒絕和對抗中國，不再是可行的前進道路。沒有和平，就不會有民主。
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龍應台是台灣作家、散文家和文化評論家。2012 年至 2014 年間，她在馬英九總統任內擔任台灣第一任文化部部長。她的著作包括 「Big River, Big Sea - Untold Stories of 1949」。
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Opinion
Guest Essay
The Clock Is Ticking for Taiwan
April 1, 2025
President Lai Ching-te of Taiwan and a group of soldiers holding up clenched fists and shouting in unison.
Credit...Ann Wang/Reuters
Listen to this article · 7:10 min Learn more
By Yingtai Lung
Ms. Lung, a former culture minister of Taiwan, wrote from Taitung, Taiwan.
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Taiwan’s cabdrivers are famously chatty, and after I settled into the back seat of a taxi in the island’s south recently, my cabby turned to me and cheerfully asked how my day was going, before abruptly declaring, “Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow.”
He was voicing a concern shared across Taiwan since President Trump pulled back on America’s strong support for Ukraine and added insult to injury by humiliating its president, Volodymyr Zelensky, at the White House in late February. Now people in Taiwan are wondering: If the United States could do that to Ukraine to cozy up to Russia, will it do the same to us to cozy up to China?
For decades, Taiwan’s leaders have framed our standoff with China — which claims Taiwan as its own territory and vows to take it, by force if necessary — as a defense of freedom and democracy, underpinned by the expectation that the United States would back us up if China were to invade. This created a false sense of security, allowing Taiwan’s politicians and people to delay a national reckoning over the best way for us to deal with China in order to ensure the long-term survival of our democracy.
With Mr. Trump casting aside democratic values and America’s friends, Taiwan must begin an immediate, serious national conversation about how to secure peace with China on terms that are acceptable to us, rather than letting bigger powers decide our future.
In online comments and daily conversations, Taiwan’s people are expressing growing doubt over America’s commitment to Taiwan and asking: If the United States no longer seems willing to support a friendly nation like Ukraine in defending its freedom, did all those tens of thousands of young Ukrainians who fought and died for their country do so in vain? An informal poll in early March by an online platform popular with Taiwan college students asked whether, given the latest developments involving Ukraine, survey respondents were still willing to defend Taiwan against a Chinese attack or preferred surrender. Most opted for surrender.
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Taiwan’s president, Lai Ching-te, appears oblivious to these sentiments. Rather than reaching out to all sides in Taiwan to initiate an urgent national discussion on the direction we should take, he is instead going for fear, confrontation and a revival of dark Cold War rhetoric.
On March 13, citing Chinese espionage, subversion and military threats, Mr. Lai officially labeled China a “foreign hostile force” and promised tighter scrutiny of business, cultural and other links with China. He also announced plans to reinstate a system of military courts to prosecute suspected national security crimes by Taiwan’s active-duty personnel, which was abolished in 2013 over human rights concerns. Taiwan’s leading opposition party, the Kuomintang, accused Mr. Lai of pushing Taiwan toward war, and China predictably warned that he was “playing with fire."
The problem with Mr. Lai’s approach is that Taiwan can no longer bank on U.S. support. This isn’t something that we are just now realizing because of Mr. Trump, who, besides betraying Ukraine, has already sown doubt about his commitment to defending Taiwan, even accusing us of stealing the semiconductor business from America.
We have long been painfully aware that the United States, like any country, puts its own interests first. Taiwanese of all ages know what happened on Dec. 16, 1978, when Chiang Ching-kuo, our president at the time, was awakened at 2 a.m. and informed that the United States would sever diplomatic ties with Taiwan to recognize the People’s Republic of China, abandoning us — a Cold War ally — to deepening diplomatic isolation. Mr. Trump’s crude approach is merely a difference in style, not substance.
With China growing in strength and the United States turning its back on the world, Taiwan is right to build up its military as a deterrence against attack. But the only way for Taiwan to peacefully secure its freedom is to somehow reconcile with China. Recent history suggests that is achievable.
For decades, Taiwan and China were deeply estranged and essentially in a state of war. But after the Cold War, relations gradually thawed. They were at their best during the presidency of Ma Ying-jeou, of the Kuomintang, from 2008 to 2016. The Kuomintang emphasizes cooperation with China as a way to ensure Taiwan’s stability and prosperity.
Under Mr. Ma’s administration, exchanges in academia, culture and commerce flourished, culminating in his historic meeting in 2015 with President Xi Jinping of China. It seemed, after decades of hostility, that reconciliation was possible.
But the window quickly closed. Public skepticism over the warming ties with China grew in Taiwan, especially after China responded to pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong, which began in 2014, with a harsh crackdown that continues today. Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party, which is justifiably distrustful of China and stresses protection of the island’s sovereignty, won the presidency in 2016 and has held it ever since. Relations with China have reverted to confrontation and fear.
But it is fear that is perhaps our greatest enemy. Fear breeds hatred and distrust, to the point that even suggesting peace with China is dismissed in Taiwan’s political discourse as naïve, unpatriotic or — worse — as surrender and betrayal.
Fear also breeds an impulse for tighter control, the kind that Mr. Lai is now pursuing. I grew up in Taiwan in the 1950s, when we lived under martial law and constant fear of Chinese invasion. The increasingly tense atmosphere today — Taiwan’s purchase of U.S. weapons, Mr. Lai’s provocative labeling of China as an enemy and the return of Cold War-style suspicion surrounding exchanges with China — all feel like a disturbing return to that era, threatening peace and the progress Taiwan has made in building an open, democratic society.
The clock is now ticking for Taiwan. Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi are expected to meet in person at some point soon. After what happened with Ukraine, there is a very real risk of Mr. Trump casting Taiwan aside to strike a trade or geopolitical deal with Mr. Xi.
Virtually all of us in Taiwan want to protect our cherished freedom. Where we disagree is on how to achieve that — through conciliation or confrontation with China. But one thing is now clear: Relying entirely on the United States while rejecting and antagonizing China is no longer a viable path forward. There can be no democracy without first ensuring peace.
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Yingtai Lung is a writer, essayist and cultural critic in Taiwan. She was Taiwan’s first culture minister, from 2012 to 2014, in the administration of President Ma Ying-jeou. Her books include “Big River, Big Sea — Untold Stories of 1949.”
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The Clock Is Ticking for Taiwan
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