GEMINI:美國扭轉歷史,在新安全政策中將歐洲——而非俄羅斯——視為反派

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美國扭轉歷史,在新安全政策中將歐洲——而非俄羅斯——視為反派

這份年度戰略文件以往曾描述來自中國和俄羅斯的威脅,現在卻將其部分最嚴厲的措辭指向了北約盟友。

記者:Daniel Michaels、David Luhnow 和 Max Colchester

2025 年 12 月 5 日 晚上 11:00


布魯塞爾——多年來,美國政府都會發布年度的《國家安全戰略》文件,闡述華盛頓對世界的看法以及應對從中國到俄羅斯再到拉丁美洲販毒者等迫在眉睫威脅的方式。

本週,川普政府的版本似乎將其最嚴厲的語氣保留給了一個新目標:美國在歐洲最親密的盟友

這份 30 頁的文件將歐洲國家描繪成任性、衰落的勢力,它們將主權讓給了歐盟,並由壓制民主和壓制要求更具民族主義轉向的聲音的政府領導。

它聲稱歐洲大陸正面臨因移民而導致的**「文明消亡」,這可能使其在二十年內變得「面目全非」——並將幾個北大西洋公約組織的盟友變成以「非歐洲」人口為主的國家。文件總結說,該地區可能會變得過於軟弱,無法成為「可靠的盟友」**。

該文件突顯了川普政府正在徹底重塑美國傳統外交政策的程度,它可能會加深跨大西洋聯盟內部的分歧,而這個聯盟自第二次世界大戰以來在很大程度上維持了歐洲的和平,並在全球推廣了西方價值觀。

這份文件像一盆冷水般澆在了歐洲各國首都。倫敦智庫查塔姆研究所(Chatham House)的高級研究員卡佳·貝戈(Katja Bego)表示,閱讀這份文件的歐洲領導人需要**「假定傳統的跨大西洋關係已經死亡」**。

英國著名歷史學家蒂莫西·加頓·阿什(Timothy Garton Ash)將這份文件描述為**「歐洲最大的警鐘」**。

他說:「我們正處於一個特殊境地,美國客觀上仍然是歐洲的盟友,但主觀上,至少在川普政府和許多歐洲人看來,我們不再以這種方式看待彼此。」

自川普總統於一月重返辦公室以來,大多數歐洲領導人一直在努力解決他關切的問題,同時討好他。這些努力贏得了川普的友好言辭,但他的團隊中的其他人則對歐洲表現出輕蔑,並對許多歐洲政策持反感態度。

《國家安全戰略》中的許多觀點呼應了副總統 JD Vance 在政府上任數週後,於二月在慕尼黑安全會議上首次提出的批評。它們強化了 MAGA 支持者對歐洲的批評,並凸顯了跨大西洋分歧。

加頓·阿什說:「它實質上是公開宣佈反對歐洲聯盟。這是 JD Vance 在慕尼黑那次臭名昭著的演講的加強版,並作為美國的官方政策。」

該戰略稱,歐盟——這個美國在幾十年前幫助建立的機構——以及其他跨國組織**「破壞了政治自由和主權」。它還指責許多歐洲政府「顛覆民主進程」**,儘管它沒有闡明其具體含義。

歐洲人早已承認他們緩慢增長的經濟需要修復,並且必須增加軍事開支,儘管應對這些不足的行動一直緩慢或無效。許多歐洲國家也在收緊移民政策,移民人數已開始下降。無論從哪個方面衡量,該地區仍然是全球資本主義和民主的關鍵堡壘,以及美國最強大的歷史和文化夥伴。

根據美國非營利組織「自由之家」(Freedom House)的數據,每個西歐國家在關於選舉程序、法治和個人權利等指標的全球自由和民主排名中都高於美國。

該文件以一種近乎家長式的語氣來表達對歐洲的批評——就像給朋友的嚴厲忠告。它關於歐洲的三頁篇章開頭標題為**「促進歐洲的偉大」**。

這種語氣和對歐洲的尖銳批評與文件對傳統美國對手或威脅(例如俄羅斯)的處理方式形成了鮮明對比。俄羅斯一次都沒有被提及為可能對美國利益構成威脅

關於歐洲的部分還突顯了在烏克蘭戰爭上的分歧,指責歐洲官員對這場戰爭抱有**「不切實際的期望」。值得注意的是,它將美國定位為歐洲與俄羅斯之間的仲裁者**,而不是自二戰結束以來美國所扮演的歐洲盟友、反對俄羅斯的角色。該文件還呼籲北約停止成為**「一個永久擴張的聯盟」**。

蘇格蘭聖安德魯斯大學戰略研究教授菲利普斯·奧布萊恩(Phillips O’Brien)在他的每日通訊中表示:「這份文件讀起來就像一份支持俄羅斯立場的摘要,呼籲歐洲國家重新與俄羅斯合作,並提供美國作為實現這一目標的工具。這是一項旨在摧毀當前歐洲,使其成為 MAGA 歐洲的戰略。」

查塔姆研究所的貝戈表示,這份文件沒有呈現出許多 MAGA 運動倡導的更加孤立主義的美國,而是表明川普政府希望積極地將歐洲塑造成自己的形象

該戰略稱:「我們的目標應該是幫助歐洲糾正其目前的軌跡。」「我們希望歐洲保持歐洲性,重拾其文明自信,並放棄其失敗的監管窒息焦點。」

其中一個部分列出了美國的一個外交政策目標:「在歐洲國家內部培養對歐洲當前軌跡的抵制」,分析人士認為這是美國公然干涉歐洲政治,並支持德國、法國、英國和其他國家的極右翼或反移民政黨。

該文件沒有提及在其他全球地區塑造政治結果。

羅馬國際事務研究所所長、前歐盟外交顧問娜塔莉·托奇(Nathalie Tocci)表示,這份文件提出了一個相當連貫的願景:一個由美國、中國和俄羅斯這三個大國主導的世界,它們之間有合作領域和影響範圍。

她說:「我認為這很清楚,歐洲被政府視為**『殖民地菜單』**上的一員,可能受到美國或俄羅斯的支配。所以對我來說,真正的問題是:『我們歐洲人還需要發生什麼才能警醒過來?』」

歐盟執行機構歐盟委員會的一位發言人拒絕對整份文件發表評論,但反駁了歐洲支持有害移民政策或破壞言論自由的說法。她補充說,美國的新安全政策與歐洲傳統上與美國的牢固關係形成了對比。

委員會首席發言人葆拉·皮尼奧(Paula Pinho)說:「美國的國家安全與歐洲的安全緊密相連,這也解釋了我們作為美國的主要盟友和夥伴,在包括烏克蘭問題上所做的一切工作。」

Vance 和其他政府官員批評了德國和法國等國的民主制度,在這些國家,主流政黨維持著所謂的**「防火牆」**,禁止它們因法西斯主義的歷史遺留問題而與極右翼政黨組成聯合政府。

Vance 批評這是不民主的,但大多數支持民主的專家表示,個別政黨可以自由選擇與哪些其他政黨合作,以及它們是否分享相同的價值觀。選民也可以賦予極右翼政黨選舉多數,讓它們無需聯合夥伴即可執政。

Vance 和其他人也批評歐洲限制仇恨言論的法律——這是歐洲大陸戰爭的遺產。然而,分析人士表示,似乎很少有人認識到歐洲廣泛維護言論自由,包括批評政治人物和領導人,這與俄羅斯和中國不同。


2. 逐條列出論述重點

這篇新聞文章的論述重點集中在川普政府的新版**《國家安全戰略》**文件對歐洲的負面評價及其對跨大西洋關係的影響:

  • 美國對歐洲立場的根本轉變: 新的安全戰略將美國最親密的歐洲盟友視為主要目標,語氣嚴厲,扭轉了以往將中國和俄羅斯視為主要威脅的歷史傳統。

  • 文件對歐洲的負面描述: 文件將歐洲國家描繪成**「任性、衰落的勢力」**,批評它們將主權讓給歐盟,並由壓制民族主義聲音和民主的政府領導。

  • 移民威脅論: 文件預測歐洲大陸正面臨因移民而導致的**「文明消亡」,可能使其在二十年內「面目全非」,並使北約盟國變成以「非歐洲」**人口為主的國家。

  • 質疑歐洲作為盟友的可靠性: 文件總結歐洲可能會變得過於軟弱,無法成為**「可靠的盟友」**。

  • 對歐盟的直接反對: 文件稱歐盟等跨國組織**「破壞了政治自由和主權」**,被分析人士視為公開反對歐盟的政策立場。

  • 對俄羅斯威脅的輕描淡寫: 文件對歐洲的批評與其對傳統對手俄羅斯的處理形成鮮明對比,俄羅斯一次都沒有被提及為對美國利益的潛在威脅

  • 美國定位的改變: 文件將美國定位為歐洲與俄羅斯之間的仲裁者,而非歐洲的盟友,這與二戰後的傳統角色相悖。它也呼籲北約停止**「永久擴張」**。

  • 干預歐洲內政的意圖: 該戰略提出一個目標:「在歐洲國家內部培養對歐洲當前軌跡的抵制」,這被解讀為美國公開干預歐洲政治,並支持極右翼或反移民政黨。

  • 歐洲精英的震驚反應: 歐洲領導人和分析人士對該文件感到震驚,認為這意味著**「傳統的跨大西洋關係已經死亡」,是「歐洲最大的警鐘」**。


3. 分析其目的(作者想達成什麼)

本文的作者(記者)試圖達成的目的包括:

  • 報導和揭示政策的重大轉變: 核心目的是向讀者報告川普政府的新版《國家安全戰略》中,美國對歐洲政策發生了歷史性的、激進的重新定位

  • 突顯聯盟內部的深刻分歧: 強調這一戰略文件如何**「徹底重塑傳統的美國外交政策」,以及「加深跨大西洋聯盟內部的分歧」**。

  • 分析新政策背後的動機和影響: 通過引用專家(如智庫研究員和歷史學家)的觀點,分析這份文件不僅是孤立主義的表現,更是旨在**「積極地將歐洲塑造成自己的形象」,並在美國、中國和俄羅斯主導的世界中將歐洲「殖民地化」**。

  • 提供歐洲的視角和反駁: 平衡報導,納入歐洲官員和分析人士的震驚和批評反應,並列舉歐洲在民主和自由度上優於美國的事實,以提供對文件中尖銳批評的反駁。


4. 整理支持的理由與證據

論點支持的理由與證據
美國政府對歐洲態度變得極其嚴苛。該年度文件**「似乎將其最嚴厲的語氣保留給了一個新目標:美國在歐洲最親密的盟友」**。
文件將歐洲描繪為衰落和有問題的力量。文件稱歐洲國家是**「任性、衰落的勢力」;批評其「將主權讓給了歐洲聯盟」;指責其政府「壓制民主和壓制要求更具民族主義轉向的聲音」**。
文件提出歐洲面臨「文明消亡」的威脅。稱歐洲面臨因移民而導致的**「文明消亡」,可能在二十年內「面目全非」,並使北約盟友變成「非歐洲」**國家。
新戰略公開反對歐盟。文件稱歐盟其他跨國組織「破壞了政治自由和主權」,並被專家描述為**「實質上是公開宣佈反對歐洲聯盟」**。
美國在俄羅斯問題上改變立場。戰略中**「俄羅斯一次都沒有被提及為可能對美國利益構成威脅」;文件將美國定位為「歐洲與俄羅斯之間的仲裁者」,而非盟友;有專家稱文件「讀起來就像一份支持俄羅斯立場的摘要」**。
新戰略意圖干預歐洲內政。戰略的目標是**「幫助歐洲糾正其目前的軌跡」,並「在歐洲國家內部培養對歐洲當前軌跡的抵制」**,這被解讀為支持歐洲內部極右翼或反移民政黨。
歐洲方面對文件的反應強烈。智庫專家稱歐洲領導人需**「假定傳統的跨大西洋關係已經死亡」;著名歷史學家稱其為「歐洲最大的警鐘」**。
文件的指控存在矛盾和反駁。歐洲在**「全球自由和民主排名」上分數高於美國(Freedom House 數據);歐盟發言人反駁**了關於支持有害移民政策或破壞言論自由的說法。

5. 說明這段話的重要性(為什麼值得關注)

這篇報導的重要性在於它揭示了美國外交政策的一個歷史性、具有深遠影響的轉折點

  • 徹底顛覆二戰後的聯盟基礎: 自二戰以來,美國-歐洲的跨大西洋關係一直是西方安全與價值觀的基石。這份文件首次將歐洲而非俄羅斯視為主要問題甚至潛在的敵對目標,這等於是公開放棄了幾十年來的美國外交政策傳統。

  • 對全球地緣政治結構產生影響: 這一政策將美國從歐洲的保護者和盟友轉變為**「仲裁者」,客觀上減少了歐洲與俄羅斯之間的制衡力量,可能加劇歐洲大陸的不穩定性**,並重塑全球權力結構,使世界更傾向於由美、中、俄三個大國劃分勢力範圍。

  • 干預民主與國家主權的嚴重訊號: 戰略中**「培養對歐洲當前軌跡的抵制」的目標,是美國公然表示將干預其盟友的內部政治,試圖推動親 MAGA 或極右翼的政治轉變,這對國際關係中的主權原則民主規範**構成重大挑戰。

  • 聯盟的生存危機: 對歐洲而言,這份文件是**「最大的警鐘」,促使他們意識到可能需要採取戰略自主**,而不再能將美國視為理所當然的盟友,這將影響北約、歐盟以及全球貿易和安全合作的未來。

總而言之,這段話的重要性在於它標誌著跨大西洋聯盟進入了前所未有的危機時刻,對全球秩序的穩定性構成了根本性的挑戰。


請問您是否希望我進一步分析這對特定歐洲國家(如德國、法國)的潛在影響?


An annual strategy document, which has described threats from China to Russia, now directs some of its harshest language at NATO allies

 ET

President Donald Trump at a press conference.
President Trump at a NATO summit in The Hague in June with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, left, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. PENG ZIYANG/ZUMA PRESS

BRUSSELS—For years, the U.S. government has published an annual National Security Strategy that lays out how Washington sees the world and its approach to dealing with looming threats, from China to Russia to drug-traffickers in Latin America. 

This week, the Trump administration’s version seemed to reserve its harshest tone for a new target: America’s closest allies in Europe.

The 30-page document painted European nations as wayward, declining powers that have ceded their sovereignty to the European Union and are led by governments that suppress democracy and muzzle voices that want a more nationalistic turn.

It says the continent faces “civilizational erasure” through immigration that could render it “unrecognizable” in two decades—as well as turning several North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies into majority “non-European” countries. It concludes the region could grow too weak to be “reliable allies.”

The document underscores how radically the Trump administration is reshaping traditional American foreign policy, and it is likely to deepen divisions in the trans-Atlantic alliance, which has largely kept the peace in Europe since World War II and promoted Western values across the world.

The document landed like a bucket of cold water in European capitals. European leaders reading the document need “to assume that the traditional trans-Atlantic relationship is dead,” said Katja Bego, a senior researcher at Chatham House, a think tank in London.

Timothy Garton Ash, a prominent British historian, described the document “as the mother of all wake-up calls for Europe.”

“We’re in this extraordinary position where the U.S. is still objectively an ally of Europe, but subjectively at least in the Trump administration and the view of many Europeans we’re no longer seeing each other that way,” he said.

Since President Trump returned to office in January, most European leaders have worked to address his concerns while currying favor with him. Those efforts have won kind words from Trump, but others on his team display disdain for Europe and antipathy toward many European policies.

Many points in the National Security Strategy echo critiques that Vice President JD Vance first made weeks into the administration, at a security conference in Munich in February. They amplify criticisms of Europe leveled by MAGA supporters and highlight trans-Atlantic differences.

“It essentially declares outright opposition to the European Union,” said Garton Ash. “It’s JD Vance’s notorious speech in Munich but on steroids, and as official U.S. policy.” 

J.D. Vance speaking at the Munich Security Conference.
U.S. Vice President JD Vance criticized European leaders at a Munich security conference in February. SVEN HOPPE/ZUMA PRESS

The strategy says the EU—an institution that the U.S. helped establish decades ago—and other transnational organizations “undermine political liberty and sovereignty.” It also accuses many European governments of “subversion of democratic processes,” though it doesn’t spell out what it means by that. 

Europeans have long acknowledged that their slow-growing economies need fixing and that they must boost military spending, though actions to address those shortfalls have been slow or ineffectual. Many European countries are also clamping down on immigration, which has started to fall. The region remains, by any measure, a critical global bastion of capitalism and democracy, and the U.S.’s strongest historical and cultural partner.

Every Western European country scores higher on the global ranking of freedom and democracy than the U.S. does, according to Freedom House, a U.S.-based nonprofit that ranks countries according to measures such as election process, rule of law and individual rights.

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The document casts its criticism of Europe in an almost paternalistic tone—the kind of tough love advice one gives a friend. It begins its three-page section on Europe with the title “Promoting European Greatness.” 

The tone and pointed criticisms of Europe contrasts with the document’s approach to traditional U.S. rivals or threats like Russia. Russia isn’t mentioned a single time as a possible threat to U.S. interests. 

The section on Europe also highlights differences over the war in Ukraine, accusing European officials of holding “unrealistic expectations” about the war. Significantly, it positions the U.S. as more of an arbiter between Europe and Russia, rather than Europe’s ally opposing Russia, which has been America’s role since the end of World War II. The document also calls for an end to NATO being “a perpetually expanding alliance.”

“The document reads like a brief in favor of the Russian position, calling for European states to get back to work with Russia and offering up the U.S.A. as the vehicle to do this,” said Phillips O’Brien, a professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews, in Scotland, in his daily newsletter. “This is a strategy to destroy the present Europe, to make it MAGA.” 

Russian President Vladimir Putin
President Vladimir Putin of Russia, which isn’t mentioned as a possible threat to U.S. interests.  ALEXANDER KAZAKOV/ASSOCIATED PRESS

Rather than presenting a more isolationist America—as many in the MAGA movement have advocated—Bego at Chatham House said the document shows the Trump administration wants to actively reshape Europe in its own image. 

“Our goal should be to help Europe correct its current trajectory,” the strategy says. “We want Europe to remain European, to regain its civilizational self-confidence, and to abandon its failed focus on regulatory suffocation.”

One section lays out a U.S. foreign-policy goal of “cultivating resistance to Europe’s current trajectory within European nations,” which analysts read as outright American interference in European politics and support for far-right or anti-immigration parties in Germany, France, the U.K. and other countries.

The document makes no mention of shaping political outcomes in other global regions.

Nathalie Tocci, director of the Institute for International Affairs in Rome and a former EU diplomatic adviser, said the document lays out a fairly coherent vision of a world dominated by three big powers—the U.S., China and Russia—who have areas of cooperation and zones of influence.

“I think it’s fairly clear that Europe is seen by the administration as being on the colonial menu” for domination by either the U.S. or Russia, she said. “So to me, the real question is: ’What else needs to happen for us Europeans to wake up to this?’ ”

A spokeswoman for the European Commission, the EU’s executive body, declined to comment on the whole document but pushed back against the assertion that Europe backs harmful migration policies or undermines free speech. She added that the U.S.’s new security policy contrasted with the strong ties Europe has traditionally had with America.

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“The U.S. national security has been very much linked to Europe’s security, which explains also all the work we are doing with the U.S. as our key ally and partner,” including on Ukraine, said Paula Pinho, chief spokeswoman for the Commission.

Vance and other administration officials have criticized democracy in countries such as Germany and France, where mainstream parties maintain a so-called firewall that bars them from entering governing coalitions with far-right parties because of the legacy of fascism.

Vance has criticized this as undemocratic, but most pro-democracy experts say individual political parties are free to choose which other parties they would work with, and whether or not they share the same values. And voters can give far-right parties an electoral majority, allowing them to govern without coalition partners.

Vance and others have also criticized Europe for laws that restrict hate speech—a legacy of the continent’s wars. Yet analysts said there seems little recognition that Europe upholds free speech broadly, including criticism of politicians and leaders, unlike Russia and China.

Write to Daniel Michaels at Dan.Michaels@wsj.com, David Luhnow at david.luhnow@wsj.com and Max Colchester at Max.Colchester@wsj.com

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Appeared in the December 6, 2025, print edition as 'U.S. Flips History In Casting Europe As Threat U.S. Casts Europe as Weak and Declining Power'.

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