書評：《中國眼中的世界》

 書評：中國與內陸亞洲

第97卷－第3期

《中國眼中的世界》｜伊莉莎白·柯姆尼 著

英國劍橋：波利提出版社，2022年。xi頁，292頁。（含表格、圖表、地圖）精裝本售價32美元。ISBN 9781509537495。

Book Reviews, China and Inner Asia

Volume 97 – No. 3

THE WORLD ACCORDING TO CHINA | By Elizabeth C. Economy

Cambridge, UK: Polity Press, 2022. xi, 292 pp. (Tables, figures, maps.) US$32.00, cloth. ISBN 9781509537495.

本書由美國頂尖中國問題專家撰寫，針對中國對外關係及其對世界（尤其是美國及其盟友）的影響，提出研究扎實且論證有力之見解。伊莉莎白·艾科諾米現任史丹佛大學胡佛研究所資深研究員，曾任美國商務部中國事務高級顧問（2021–2023）。
本書主要立足美國視角——特別是關乎美國國家利益與自由民主價值觀的層面——
對中國全球倡議提出挑釁性批判分析，指出這些倡議對美國主導的世界秩序構成重大威脅。
首章探討2019年新冠疫情爆發時，經濟學家揭示習近平領導下的中國如何利用疫情推進其「野心、影響力與衝擊力」（第21頁）。
隨後五章分別探討：習近平運用軟實力與銳實力擴張影響力、強勢推動香港與台灣國家統一、一帶一路倡議、中國爭奪全球科技領導地位，以及中國對美國主導的全球治理規則所構成的挑戰。
結語部分針對美國政策重置提出建言，以應對日益強勢的中國趁美國疲弱或疏忽之際所採取的行動。

本書提出六項核心論點：
其一，主權與社會穩定被視為習近平的首要目標，國家統一則是長期戰略；
其二，中國正「輸出其威權政治模式的元素」（第25頁），尤其透過「一帶一路」影響他國發展路徑與治理模式，並藉由主導國際組織來塑造其價值觀與規範；
第三，儘管中國在促進全球南方採用中國技術等短期行動取得成功，但其「國家主導模式限制了這些努力的可信度與吸引力」（第26頁）。
第四點或許更為關鍵：中國在亞太地區的行動促使美國加強安全聯盟（例如與澳洲、日本、南韓及歐洲主要盟友合作），以制衡中國。
第五，儘管無意顛覆美國「作為世界唯一超級大國」的地位（27），但在公共衛生、貿易及氣候等全球性議題的管理中，中國試圖削弱美國在相關體制與機構中的主導權。
第六，中國將自身崛起框架化為與美國的零和競爭，此舉被視為「具有誤導性且符合中國利益」（28）。
中國正威脅基於規則的國際秩序與聯合國體系，全球應對此重大挑戰保持警覺。

儘管本書面向普通讀者、實務工作者及政策圈，仍為日益豐富的中國崛起及其全球影響學術文獻作出重要貢獻。然而若能直接系統性地參與學術辯論，將更具價值：
當前中國在經濟、外交、科技及安全領域的全球性介入日益深化，
究竟其強勢對外行為是結構現實主義論述所預測的「崛起強權追求國家利益」結果，
抑或葛拉罕·艾利森在《修昔底德陷阱》研究中探討的「新興國家挑戰現存霸權」必然歸宿？
另有文化歷史論點主張，中國此舉旨在重振歷史榮光與強盛地位。
然而強盛的中國未必構成現存世界秩序的顛覆性威脅；
習近平所追求的，實為重塑中國作為大國的地位——
其區域影響力與全球定位應獲其他強權（尤指美國）正視。

鄧勇在《中國外交政策》（劍橋大學出版社，2022年）中提出的戰略機遇論，
對艾柯諾描繪中國推行全面侵略性外交政策的論述，提供了更為務實的反駁。
同樣地，
貝茨·吉爾的《敢於奮鬥：習近平治下中國的全球野心》（牛津大學出版社，2021年）更精闢闡釋了習近平追求的戰略目標——
除主權、財富、權力、領導地位與意識形態外，
最根本的是維護並強化中國共產黨的執政合法性。
而蘇珊·夏克的《過度擴張：中國如何使和平崛起脫軌》（牛津大學出版社，2023年）則對影響中國內部政治動態的因素提供了更細緻的分析。

此外，
該書未設專章探討中國軍事現代化與國防政策，
以及這些政策如何對美國及其盟友構成重大挑戰。
另一項遺漏是未分析中國嚴峻的國內社會經濟與政治問題，因這些困境可能阻礙習近平在險峻國際環境中實現全球議程與引領國家發展的雄心。
2023年末顯現的經濟放緩、地方政府債務、房地產市場崩潰及消費信心低迷等結構性問題，預示著中國的「民族復興」之路絕非坦途。
本書各章節描述中國在不同政策領域與美國競爭的行動與成果，隨後論證中國這些舉措未必成功（甚至可能適得其反），受影響國家將「予以反制」。若能更系統嚴謹地評估中國積極全球倡議的成敗，並剖析這些行動成效背後的關鍵因素，或許更能協助讀者以更平衡全面的視角審視中國行為。

近期數部著作對本書形成互補，更深入闡釋中國全球行為背後的邏輯。
例如
鄧勇在《中國的戰略機遇：中國外交政策的變革與修正主義》（劍橋大學出版社，2022年）中，提出中國追求戰略機遇的論點，對艾康描繪中國推行全面進攻性外交政策的圖景，提供了更為現實的反駁。
同樣地，
貝茨·吉爾的《敢於奮鬥：習近平治下中國的全球野心》（牛津大學出版社，2021年）更清晰闡釋了習近平追求的戰略目標——除主權、財富、權力、領導地位與意識形態外，最根本的是維護並強化中國共產黨的執政合法性。
而蘇珊·夏克的《過度擴張：中國如何使和平崛起脫軌》（牛津大學出版社，2023年）則對影響中國崛起的內部政治動態提供了更細緻的分析。

這部內容豐富的著作，憑藉大量文獻資料與對知情政策制定者的深度訪談，成為探討中國對外關係演變的蓬勃文獻中必讀之作。
然而，
若能對中國意圖與實力、影響其崛起的內外部制約因素、以及不同未來發展路徑進行更精細系統的分析，將有助理解形塑中國在動盪二十一世紀中前所未有崛起的國內外動態變化。

張天耀

香港教育大學

This volume offers a well-researched and forceful argument on China’s external relations and the implications for the world, especially the US and her allies, by a leading American expert on China. Elizabeth Economy is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University and was a senior advisor (for China) in the US Department of Commerce (2021–2023). Written mainly from an American perspective—especially concerns for American national interest and liberal democratic values—the book offers a provocative and critical analysis of China’s global initiatives, which pose major threats to the US-dominated world order. In the first chapter on the COVID outbreak in 2019, Economy shows how China under Xi Jinping used the pandemic to advance its “ambition, influence, and impact” (21). The following five chapters in turn examine Xi’s assertion of soft and sharp power to extend Chinese influence, the forceful scheme for national unification of Hong Kong and Taiwan, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China’s striving for global technological leadership, and China’s challenge to the rules of the game in global governance under American sponsorship. Her conclusion gives policy advice on resetting American policies to cope with an increasingly assertive China taking advantage of American weakness or neglect.

Six key arguments are advanced in the book. First, sovereignty and social stability are considered Xi’s primary goal and national unification the longer-term objective. Second, China is “exporting elements of its authoritarian political model” (25), especially through her efforts at influencing the development path and governance of other countries through the BRI as well as the values and norms of international organizations through assuming their leadership positions. Third, while some of China’s near-term efforts have been successful, such as the promotion of Chinese technology in the Global South, its “state-centered model has limited the credibility and attraction” of its endeavours (26). Fourth, and perhaps more significantly, Chinese actions in the Asia Pacific have prompted more US responses in strengthening security alliances (e.g. with Australia, Japan, South Korea, and key European allies) to counterbalance China. Fifth, although not aiming to upend the US “as the world’s sole superpower” (27), in managing global problems such as public health, trade, and climate issues, China has attempted to undermine American dominance in these regimes and institutions. Sixth, the Chinese framing of its ascendence as a zero-sum rivalry with the US is considered “misleading and serves China’s interest” (28). China is threatening the rule-based world order and the UN system, hence the rest of the world should be alert to this eminent challenge.

Although this volume is aimed at the general reader, practitioners, and policy communities, it is an important contribution to the growing academic literature on China’s ascent and its global ramifications. However, it would be more useful if this study could directly and systematically engage in the academic debate about whether assertive Chinese external behaviour is the result of a rising power seeking to advance its national interest as predicted by structural, realist arguments (as Chinese engagements in economic, diplomatic, technological, and security domains are becoming global), or an inevitable outcome of an emerging state challenging the existing hegemon, as examined in the study of the Thucydides Trap by Graham Allison. There are also other cultural, historical arguments, namely that China’s efforts aim to restore her historical position of honour and strength. Yet a more powerful China does not necessarily mean transformational threats to the existing world order; rather, what Xi has been attempting to achieve is only reclaiming China’s position as a great nation, where its regional sphere of influence and global position would be duly respected by other great powers, especially the US.

Further, there is no chapter on China’s military modernization and defence policies and how this poses a critical challenge to the US and her allies. Another omission is an analysis of China’s daunting domestic socio-economic and political problems because these difficulties may hinder Xi’s ambitions in achieving his global agendas and steering national development in a perilous international environment. The recent economic slowdown and structural problems shown in local government debts, meltdown of the real estate market, and sluggish consumer sentiment in late 2023 suggest China’s “national rejuvenation” cannot be a smooth sail. Different chapters in this book describe China’s actions and success in competing against the US in various policy domains, and then argue that China’s advances are not always successful (or would backfire), and the countries affected by such actions would “push back.” Perhaps a more systematic and rigorous assessment of the successes and failures of China’s active global initiatives and a scrutiny of the key factors explaining the balance sheet of such endeavours would be more effective in helping readers to evaluate Chinese conduct in a more balanced and thorough manner.

Several recent works complement this volume with more in-depth explanations of the rationale underpinning China’s global behaviour. For instance, in China’s Strategic Opportunity: Change and Revisionism in Chinese Foreign Policy (Cambridge University Press, 2022), Deng Yong’s thesis about China’s pursuit of strategic opportunities is a more realistic counterargument to Economy’s portrait of a China pursuing a comprehensive, aggressive foreign policy. Similarly, Bates Gill’s Daring to Struggle: China’s Global Ambitions under Xi Jinping (Oxford University Press, 2021) better explains Xi’s pursuit of strategic objectives, the most fundamental of which is preserving and strengthening the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party, aside from sovereignty, wealth, power, leadership, and ideas. And Susan Shirk’s Overreach: How China Derailed Its Peaceful Rise (Oxford University Press, 2023) provides a more nuanced analysis of the internal political dynamics affecting China’s ascent.

This richly packed volume, drawing on extensive documentary data and indepth interviews with informed policy players, is required reading in the bourgeoning literature debating the evolution of China’s external relations. However, more sophisticated and methodical analysis of both Chinese intent and power capabilities, internal and external constraints influencing her rise, and different future trajectories would be most useful in understanding the changing domestic and global dynamics shaping China’s unprecedented emergence in the turbulent twenty-first century.

Peter TY Cheung

Education University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong