CNAS最新報告揭示全球應對台海危機的關鍵因素，並為美國提出戰略建議

2025年5月21日

CNAS最新報告揭示全球應對台海危機的關鍵因素，並為美國提出戰略建議

華盛頓，2025年5月21日——新美國安全中心（Center for a New American Security, CNAS）今日發布最新報告《區域與全球對台灣突發事件的應對：戰火下建構聯盟的可能性評估》（Regional and Global Responses to a Taiwan Contingency: Gauging the Prospects for Coalition-Building Under Fire），作者為雅各布·斯托克斯（Jacob Stokes）、卡琳·哈特上校（Col Kareen Hart）、萊恩·克拉菲（Ryan Claffey）與湯瑪斯·科雷爾（Thomas Corel）。

該報告探討美國與台灣以外的國家，在面對重大台海危機時可能採取的行動。此類危機被定義為可能始於「灰色地帶」的衝突（介於和平與戰爭之間），但隨後可能升級為中國人民共和國發動的大規模統一戰役。

報告深入分析地緣政治利益、價值觀及物質實力如何影響各國的反應，對這一攸關國際安全的重大議題進行了及時且深入的研究。

報告指出，在危機爆發時的「結構性因素」將深刻影響各國的反應，作者詳細說明了四大關鍵因素：

1. 危機的性質；

2. 當時全球貿易與科技格局；

3. 台灣與美國的應對能力與決心；

4. 干預選項的多樣性與可行性。

報告進一步分析四類國家群體的可能回應，這些國家的選擇將對台海危機的結果產生重大影響。分析同時考慮它們面對的風險，以及它們在美中之間的政治態度。

本報告的結論對政策制定者具有重要意涵：

1. 其他國家只有在台灣堅決抵抗、美國積極介入的前提下，才可能援助台灣；

2. 地理鄰近性提升對台防衛的利益關聯，同時也增加遭中國報復的風險；

3. 各國可能在維持先進半導體供應與終結衝突之間尋求經濟平衡；

4. 各國的選擇將取決於其國家利益與價值觀，並會觀察他國行動來判斷自身立場。

針對美國如何在危機中有效建立防衛聯盟，報告提出數項政策建議：

• 優先防止台海危機發生；

• 向台北重申台灣應對方式（包括決心與能力）對整體局勢的關鍵影響；

• 預期盟邦支援有限，但應創新思考干預行動的可能範疇；

• 強化美國與亞洲、歐亞安全關係；

• 支持並促進亞洲內部不依賴美國為中心的安全連結；

• 規劃人道撤離行動，鼓勵東南亞國家思考台海危機的應對策略。

完整報告請點此閱讀。

如需更多資訊或安排與報告作者訪談，請聯絡 Alexa Whaley，電子郵件：awhaley@cnas.org。

May 21, 2025

New CNAS Report Reveals Key Factors Shaping Global Response to Taiwan Crisis, Offers Strategic Recommendations for the United States

Washington, May 21, 2025 – Today, the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) released a new report, Regional and Global Responses to a Taiwan Contingency: Gauging the Prospects for Coalition-Building Under Fire, by Jacob Stokes, Col Kareen Hart, Ryan Claffey, and Thomas Corel.

The report explores how states beyond the United States and Taiwan could respond to a major Taiwan contingency, defined as a conflict that might start in the so-called “gray zone” between peace and war, but then could escalate into a larger campaign of unification by the People’s Republic of China (PRC).

The report examines how geopolitical interests, values, and material power might determine the approaches of countries across the region and the world in a timely examination of a critically important national security issue.

Specifically, the authors argue that structural factors at the time of any contingency matter greatly, detailing four key factors that would shape states’ responses: the nature of the contingency; the global trade and technology landscape when it occurs; Taiwanese and U.S. capabilities and responses; and the spectrum of intervention options.

The report outlines the considerations that would shape responses from four groups of states whose decisions would play a major role in determining the outcome of a Taiwan contingency. These include the relative risks they face from a Taiwan contingency and their political posture toward the United States and China.

The analysis of the structural factors and state groupings results in several findings that could have particular relevance for policy makers: First, other states would likely only come to Taiwan’s aid if Taiwan fights fiercely, and the United States robustly intervenes. Second, geographic proximity increases any country’s stake in defending Taiwan but also exposes them more to Beijing’s retaliation. Third, states may try to balance their economic interests—especially access to high-end semiconductors—with ending the conflict to mitigate the massive economic impact of a Taiwan contingency. Fourth, the choices states make will depend on their national interests and values but also on gauging what others do.

The report includes several recommendations for U.S. policymakers should they choose to mount an effective coalition defense of Taiwan during a contingency, recommending they:

Prioritize preventing a Taiwan contingency;

Reinforce with Taipei how much would hinge on Taiwan’s contingency response, both in terms of demonstrating will and capabilities;

Expect limited contributions but be creative in exploring what in the spectrum of intervention might be possible;

Deepen intra-Asian and Euro-Asian security ties that include the United States;

Support and, where possible, facilitate the growth of intra-Asian security ties that do not rely on the United States as the hub; and

Plan for humanitarian evacuation operations as a means to encourage Southeast Asian countries to think through a Taiwan contingency.

The full report can be read here.

For more information or to schedule an interview with the report's authors, please contact Alexa Whaley at awhaley@cnas.org.