newyork我看到了未來。它不在美國。


托馬斯·弗里德曼

我剛剛看到了未來。這不在美國。

OPINION
I Just Saw the Future. It Was Not in America.

插圖有兩個燈泡。一根是紅色的，燈絲由中國國旗的黃色星星組成；另一根是藍色的，燈絲由美國國旗的白色星星組成。
這是什麼 ai 圖像 哈哈哈

左邊是中國國旗，形狀像燈泡，由於燈絲沒有斷，所以燈泡可以正常工作並亮起。右邊代表美國國旗的星星，燈絲燒壞了，無法完成電路

信用...本·希基
收聽本文· 15:01 分鐘了解更多

經過托馬斯·弗里德曼

觀點專欄作家

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前幾天在上海，我面臨一個選擇：去參觀哪個明日世界？我應該去看看上海迪士尼樂園裡由美國設計的仿明日世界嗎，還是應該參觀真正的明日世界——由中國科技巨頭華為建造的大型新研究中心，其面積約為 225 個足球場？我去了華為。

這令人著迷和印象深刻，但最終卻令人深感不安，這生動地證實了一位在中國工作了幾十年的美國商人在北京告訴我的話。他說：“曾經有一段時間，人們來到美國看未來。” “現在他們來到這裡。”

我以前從未見過像這樣的華為園區。該中心僅用三年多時間就建成，由 104 棟單獨設計的建築組成，配有修剪整齊的草坪，由迪士尼式的單軌列車連接，實驗室可容納多達 35,000 名科學家、工程師和其他工作人員，提供 100 間咖啡館、健身中心和其他福利，旨在吸引中國和外國最優秀的技術專家。

蓮丘湖研發園區其實是華為對美國自2019年開始以國家安全擔憂為由限制向華為出口包括半導體在內的美國技術以扼殺華為的回應。這項禁令對華為造成了巨大損失，但在中國政府的幫助下，該公司尋求透過創新來繞過我們。正如韓國《每日經濟新聞》去年報導的那樣，華為一直在這樣做：「儘管受到美國制裁，但華為去年還是推出了配備先進半導體的智慧型手機‘Mate 60’系列，令世界感到驚訝。」華為隨後推出了全球首款三折疊智慧型手機，並發布了自己的行動作業系統蒙，與蘋果和android競爭。

該公司還涉足電動車、自動駕駛汽車甚至可取代人類礦工的自動採礦設備等各種領域的人工智慧技術開發業務。華為官員表示，僅在 2024 年，它就將在中國為其電動車安裝 10 萬個快速充電器；相較之下，2021 年美國國會撥款 75 億美元用於建設充電站網絡，但截至 11 月，該網絡僅在 12 個州擁有 214 個可運行的充電器。

近距離觀看這一幕真是令人恐懼。川普總統關注的是美國跨性別運動員可以加入哪些隊伍，而中國則專注於利用人工智慧改造其工廠，以便能夠超越我們所有的工廠。川普的「解放日」策略是加倍徵收關稅，同時削弱推動美國創新的國家科學研究機構和勞動力。中國的解放策略是開設更多的研究園區，加倍推動人工智慧驅動的創新，永久擺脫川普的關稅。

北京向美國傳達的訊息是：我們不怕你們。你並非你所認為的那個人，我們也不是你所認為的那個人。

我的意思是什麼？證據A：2024年，《華爾街日報》報道稱，華為“去年淨利潤增長了一倍以上，標誌著一次驚人的複蘇”，這得益於“運行在自主研發芯片上的”新硬體。證據 B：《華爾街日報》最近援引共和黨參議員喬什·霍利 (Josh Hawley) 的話談到中國：“我認為他們無法獨自實現太多創新，但如果我們繼續與他們分享所有這些技術，他們就會實現。”

我們的一些參議員需要更多地出去活動。如果你是美國議員，並且想要批評中國，那請便吧——我甚至可能會和你一起喝一輪——但至少你要做好功課。如今，兩黨中這樣的人太少了，而太多的共識是，政治安全的空間就是打擊北京，高呼幾聲“美國、美國、美國”，說一些民主國家永遠比專制國家更具創新力的陳詞濫調，然後就完事了。

我更願意透過直面我們的弱點和優勢、中國的弱點和優勢來表達我的愛國主義，以及為什麼我相信在人工智慧革命前夕對我們雙方來說最好的未來是一種名為「美國工人與中國資本和技術合作在美國製造」的戰略。

訂閱「今日觀點」時事通訊，  每週一至週五早上獲取專家的新聞分析和影響世界的重大思想指南。 

讓我解釋一下。

川普的奇思妙想

我同意川普第一任期內對中國徵收關稅的做法。中國正在阻止某些美國產品和服務進入美國，我們需要對等地對待北京的關稅。例如，中國多年來一直拖延允許美國信用卡在中國使用，直到自己的支付平台完全佔領市場，並成為無現金社會，幾乎每個人都使用手機上的行動支付應用程式來支付所有費用。上週，當我去北京火車站的一家商店使用 Visa 卡時，我被告知必須透過中國的支付寶或微信支付等應用程式進行關聯，這幾個應用程式合計佔有超過 90% 的市場份額。

我甚至同意川普的觀點，對中國透過墨西哥和越南進入美國的後門徵收額外的、有針對性的關稅可能是有用的，但這只是更大戰略的一部分。

我對川普的奇思妙想感到不滿，他認為只要在一個產業（或整個經濟）周圍築起保護牆，然後──瞧！ — 很快，美國工廠將蓬勃發展，以相同的成本在美國生產這些產品，而美國消費者不會承擔任何負擔。

首先，這種觀點完全忽略了一個事實：當今幾乎每一種複雜產品——從汽車到 iPhone 再到 mRNA 疫苗——都是由龐大、複雜的全球製造生態系統製造的。這就是為什麼這些產品變得越來越好並且越來越便宜。當然，如果你保護的是鋼鐵業這種大宗商品，我們的關稅可能很快就會起到作用。但是如果你要保護汽車產業，並且你認為只要設立關稅壁壘就能達到目的，那麼你對汽車是如何製造的就一無所知。美國汽車公司需要花費數年時間才能取代其所依賴的全球供應鏈並在美國生產所有產品。甚至特斯拉也需要進口一些零件。

但如果你認為中國祇是透過欺騙手段才取得全球製造業主導地位，那你就錯了。它確實欺騙、抄襲並強制技術轉移。但如今中國製造業巨頭的強大並不在於它讓產品變得更便宜；它使它們更便宜、更快、更好、更智能，並且越來越多地融入人工智慧

影像
華為蓮球湖研發園區，是一片環繞綠地和水體的大型建築群。
信用...Costfoto/NurPhoto，來自蓋蒂圖片社

中國健身俱樂部內部

如何？曾長期擔任中國歐盟商會主席的約爾格·伍德克（Jörg Wuttke）稱之為“中國健身俱樂部”，其運作方式如下：

中國首先強調STEM教育，即科學、技術、工程和數學。每年，全國都會培養出約 350 萬名 STEM 畢業生，大約相當於副學士、學士、碩士和博士畢業生的數量。美國所有學科的課程。

當你擁有這麼多 STEM 畢業生時，你可以比其他任何人投入更多的人才來解決任何問題。正如《紐約時報》北京分社社長基思·布拉德舍爾 (Keith Bradsher)去年報道的那樣：“中國有 39 所大學開設了稀土行業工程師和研究人員培訓課程。而美國和歐洲的大學大多只提供偶爾的課程。”

儘管許多中國工程師畢業時可能不具備麻省理工學院的水平，但其中最優秀的工程師都是世界級的，而且數量眾多。那裡有14億人口。這就意味著，在中國，如果你是萬裡挑一的人才，那麼有1400個跟你一樣的人。

同樣重要的是，中國職業學校每年畢業數以萬計的電工、焊工、木工、機械師和水管工，因此當有人對一種新產品有想法並想開辦一家工廠時，工廠很快就能建成。你需要一個可以倒唱中國國歌的粉紅色圓點按鈕嗎？明天之前這裡會有人把它交給您。它還將快速得到交付。中國有超過 550 個城市透過高鐵連接，這使得我們的 Amtrak Acela 列車看起來就像是「快馬快遞」 (Pony Express)。

當你堅持不懈地將一切數位化並將其與一切連接起來時，您只需臉部辨識就可以快速進出飯店房間。精通科技的乞丐隨身攜帶列印的二維碼，可以透過手機掃描快速接受捐贈。整個系統都是為速度而設立的——包括如果你挑戰共產黨的統治，在這種情況下，考慮到到處都有監視器，你會很快被逮捕，並很快消失。

如果我們不在關稅壁壘後建立類似的健身俱樂部，我們就會面臨通貨膨脹和停滯。你不能透過徵收關稅來實現繁榮，特別是在人工智慧剛興起的時候

四個月前我也去過中國。從那時到現在，中國的人工智慧創新者展示了他們開發自己的開源人工智慧引擎 DeepSeek 的能力，而且所需的美國專用晶片要少得多。我能感受到科技界的活力。這是顯而易見的。上個月，李強總理在全國人民代表大會開幕式上表示，中國政府支持「大規模人工智慧模型的廣泛應用」。

一位曾在特斯拉公司工作過的中國年輕汽車工程師告訴我：「現在大家都在比拼人工智慧的運用程度。現在你吹噓自己運用了多少人工智慧。每個人都很投入。『我會使用人工智慧，即使我現在不知道怎麼用。』」即使你在一條簡單的冰箱生產管線上，你也在為此做準備。 ‘我必須使用人工智慧，因為我的老闆讓我這麼做。 ’”

請注意，凱馬特購物者：當你已經擁有像中國一樣強大和數位化連接的製造引擎，然後在每個層面註入人工智慧時，這就像是注射了一種興奮劑，可以優化和加速製造業從設計到測試再到生產的每個方面。

現在對美國立法者來說並不是一個好時機，因為他們擔心被稱為「熊貓擁護者」而迴避訪問中國。

正如亞洲集團中國區總監、美國人林瀚申在上海和平飯店吃早餐時對我所說：「DeepSeek 不應該是一個驚喜。」但他接著說，由於美國出台了「新的海外投資限制和合作阻礙，我們現在對中國的技術發展視而不見。中國在沒有美國參與的情況下制定了未來的技術標準。這將使我們在未來的競爭中處於嚴重的劣勢。

北京不希望發生貿易戰

儘管中國有諸多優勢，但它並不希望與美國發生貿易戰。目前，中國很多中產階級感到不高興。十多年來，許多中國人把錢用來買公寓，而不是把積蓄存入幾乎沒有利息的銀行。這造成了巨大的房地產泡沫。 2020 年政府收緊房地產貸款後，許多人先是上漲，然後又下跌。

因此，他們囤積現金，因為他們的房地產利潤已經消失，但政府退休金和醫療費用卻微薄。每個人都必須未雨綢繆。

正如我的同事基思·布拉德舍 (Keith Bradsher)剛剛報導的那樣，經濟放緩導致北京政府無法獲得刺激經濟和補貼「推動經濟成長但可能受到關稅影響的出口產業」所需的稅收收入。

簡而言之，中國的健身俱樂部很棒，但北京仍然需要與川普達成一項保護其出口引擎的貿易協議。

我們也是。然而，川普已經成為一個如此難以預測的演員，他的政策隨時都在變化，中國官員非常懷疑他是否能與中國達成他會遵守的協議。

史丹佛大學談判專家米歇爾‧蓋爾凡德 (Michele Gelfand) 表示：「川普的辯護者認為，他的不可預測性讓對手措手不及。但優秀的談判者知道，信任，而不是混亂，才是取得持久成果的關鍵。川普的勝負交易方式是一場危險的遊戲。但優秀的談判者知道，信任，而不是混亂，才是取得持久成果的關鍵。川普的勝負交易方式是一場危險的遊戲。」她還說：「如果他繼續不顧一切地將盟友視為無事的目標。

在我看來，唯一的雙贏交易就是我所說的：美國製造，由美國工人與中國的技術、資本和專家合作。也就是說，我們只是扭轉了中國在 1920 世紀 90 年代致富的策略，即：中國製造，中國工人，利用美國、歐洲、韓國和日本的技術、資本和合作夥伴。

在中國生活了30年的商業顧問吉姆·麥格雷戈向我解釋了這一點：美國大型跨國公司過去常常去中國與中國公司建立合資企業，以進入中國市場。現在外國公司紛紛來到中國並對中國跨國公司說：如果你想進入歐洲，就和我成立一家合資企業，並帶來你的技術。

我們應該在對中國徵收關稅的同時，歡迎中國企業進入美國市場，將其最好的製造創新技術授權給美國企業，或與美國企業合作，以 50-50 的股份合資形式建立先進的製造工廠。不過，中國在美國的合資企業必須穩定增加本地採購的零件份額，而不是無限期地進口。

當然，這需要付出巨大的努力來重建信任，而目前兩國關係中幾乎完全缺乏信任。這是實現合理雙贏貿易的唯一方法。如果沒有它，我們就會走向雙輸。例如，3月19日，德州參議院初步通過了一項法案，禁止中國、伊朗、北韓和俄羅斯居民和組織在德州擁有房產。將中國列入這一名單簡直是愚蠢至極：嘿，讓我們禁止世界上一些最偉大的智力人才，而不是為他們在德克薩斯州投資制定激勵措施和條件。

我們什麼時候變得這麼害怕了？我們什麼時候開始如此忽視我們所生存的世界？你可以任意譴責全球化，但這無法改變電信、貿易、移民和氣候變遷將我們和我們的命運緊密聯繫在一起的事實。

我喜歡《如何：為什麼我們做任何事情的方式都意味著一切》一書的作者多夫·塞德曼對此的描述。他告訴我，對於美國和中國，以及整個世界而言，“相互依存不再是我們的選擇。這是我們的現狀。我們唯一的選擇是，是建立健康的相互依存關係，共同崛起，還是維持不健康的相互依存關係，共同衰落。”

但無論是什麼，我們都會一起努力。

兩國領導人都知道這一點。最終，他們會重新學習它。我心中唯一的疑問是：到那時，曾經為兩個國家創造過如此巨大財富的統一的全球經濟將剩下什麼？

《紐約時報》致力於刊登多種多樣的致編輯的信。我們希望聽到您對這篇文章或我們的任何一篇文章的看法。這裡有一些提示。我們的電子郵件如下：letters@nytimes.com。

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湯瑪斯‧弗里德曼是外交事務觀點專欄作家。他於 1981 年加入該報，並曾三度獲得普立茲獎。他著有七本書，其中包括獲得國家圖書獎的《從貝魯特到耶路撒冷》。@湯姆弗里德曼 • Facebook

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Thomas L. Friedman

I Just Saw the Future. It Was Not in America.

An illustration featuring two lightbulbs. One is red, with the filament consisting of the yellow stars of the Chinese flag, and the other is blue, with the filament consisting of the white stars of the U.S. flag.
Credit...Ben Hickey
Listen to this article · 15:01 min Learn more
Opinion Columnist
Want to stay updated on what’s happening in China? , and we’ll send our latest coverage to your inbox.
I had a choice the other day in Shanghai: Which Tomorrowland to visit? Should I check out the fake, American-designed Tomorrowland at Shanghai Disneyland, or should I visit the real Tomorrowland — the massive new research center, roughly the size of 225 football fields, built by the Chinese technology giant Huawei? I went to Huawei’s.
It was fascinating and impressive but ultimately deeply disturbing, a vivid confirmation of what a U.S. businessman who has worked in China for several decades told me in Beijing. “There was a time when people came to America to see the future,” he said. “Now they come here.”
I’d never seen anything like this Huawei campus. Built in just over three years, it consists of 104 individually designed buildings, with manicured lawns, connected by a Disney-like monorail, housing labs for up to 35,000 scientists, engineers and other workers, offering 100 cafes, plus fitness centers and other perks designed to attract the best Chinese and foreign technologists.
The Lianqiu Lake R. & D. campus is basically Huawei’s response to the U.S. attempt to choke it to death beginning in 2019 by restricting the export of U.S. technology, including semiconductors, to Huawei amid national security concerns. The ban inflicted massive losses on Huawei, but with the Chinese government’s help, the company sought to innovate its way around us. As South Korea’s Maeil Business Newspaper reported last year, it’s been doing just that: “Huawei surprised the world by introducing the ‘Mate 60’ series, a smartphone equipped with advanced semiconductors, last year despite U.S. sanctions.” Huawei followed with the world’s first triple-folding smartphone and unveiled its own mobile operating system, Hongmeng (Harmony), to compete with Apple’s and Google’s.
The company also went into the business of creating the A.I. technology for everything from electric vehicles, self-driving cars and even autonomous mining equipment that can replace human miners. Huawei officials said in 2024 alone it installed 100,000 fast chargers across China for its electric vehicles; by contrast, in 2021 the U.S. Congress allocated $7.5 billion toward a network of charging stations, but as of November this network had only 214 operational chargers across 12 states.
It’s downright scary to watch this close up. President Trump is focused on what teams American transgender athletes can race on, and China is focused on transforming its factories with A.I. so it can outrace all our factories. Trump’s “Liberation Day” strategy is to double down on tariffs while gutting our national scientific institutions and work force that spur U.S. innovation. China’s liberation strategy is to open more research campuses and double down on A.I.-driven innovation to be permanently liberated from Trump’s tariffs.
Beijing’s message to America: We’re not afraid of you. You aren’t who you think you are — and we aren’t who you think we are.
What do I mean? Exhibit A: In 2024, The Wall Street Journal reported that Huawei’s “net profit more than doubled last year, marking a stunning comeback” spurred by new hardware “running on its homegrown chips.” Exhibit B: The Journal recently quoted the Republican senator Josh Hawley as saying of China, “I don’t think that they can do much innovation on their own, but they will if we keep sharing all this tech with them.”
Some of our senators need to get out more. If you’re a U.S. lawmaker and want to bash China, be my guest — I may even join you for a round — but at least do your homework. There is too little of that in both parties today and too much consensus that the politically safe space is to hammer Beijing, chant a few rounds of “U.S.A., U.S.A., U.S.A.,” issue some platitudes that democracies will always out-innovate autocracies and call it a day.
I prefer to express my patriotism by being brutally honest about our weaknesses and strengths, China’s weaknesses and strengths and why I believe the best future for both of us — on the eve of the A.I. revolution — is a strategy called: Made in America by American workers in partnership with Chinese capital and technology.
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Let me explain.
I agreed with Trump regarding his tariffs on China in his first term. China was keeping out certain U.S. products and services, and we needed to treat Beijing’s tariffs reciprocally. For instance, China dragged its feet for years on letting U.S. credit cards be used in China, waiting until its own payment platforms completely dominated the market and made it a cashless society, where virtually everyone pays for everything with mobile payment apps on their phones. When I went to use my Visa card at a shop in a Beijing rail station last week, I was told it had to be linked through one of those apps, like China’s Alipay or WeChat Pay, which, combined, have a more than 90 percent market share.
I even agree with Trump that additional — targeted — tariffs on China’s back doors into America via Mexico and Vietnam could be useful, but only as part of a larger strategy.
My problem is with Trump’s magical thinking that you just put up walls of protection around an industry (or our whole economy) and — presto! — in short order, U.S. factories will blossom and make those products in America at the same cost with no burden for U.S. consumers.
For starters, that view completely misses the fact that virtually every complex product today — from cars to iPhones to mRNA vaccines — is manufactured by giant, complex, global manufacturing ecosystems. That is why those products get steadily better and cheaper. Sure, if you are protecting the steel industry, a commodity, our tariffs might quickly help. But if you are protecting the auto industry and you think just putting up a tariff wall will do it, you don’t know anything about how cars are made. It would take years for American car companies to replace the global supply chains they depend on and make everything in America. Even Tesla has to import some parts.
But you’re also wrong if you think that China only cheated its way to global manufacturing dominance. It did cheat, copy and force technology transfers. But what makes China’s manufacturing juggernaut so powerful today is not that it just makes things cheaper; it makes them cheaper, faster, better, smarter and increasingly infused with A.I.
Image
Huawei’s Lianqiu Lake R. & D. campus, a large complex of buildings among green spaces and bodies of water.
Credit...Costfoto/NurPhoto, via Getty Images
How? Jörg Wuttke, a former longtime president of the E.U. Chamber of Commerce in China, calls it “the China fitness club,” and it works like this:
China starts with an emphasis on STEM education — science, technology, engineering and math. Each year, the country produces some 3.5 million STEM graduates, about equal the number of graduates from associate, bachelor’s, master’s and Ph.D. programs in all disciplines in the United States.
When you have that many STEM graduates, you can throw more talent at any problem than anyone else. As the Times Beijing bureau chief, Keith Bradsher, reported last year: “China has 39 universities with programs to train engineers and researchers for the rare earths industry. Universities in the United States and Europe have mostly offered only occasional courses.”
And while many Chinese engineers may not graduate with M.I.T.-level skills, the best are world class, and there are a lot of them. There are 1.4 billion people there. That means that in China, when you are a one-in-a-million talent, there are 1,400 other people just like you.
Just as important, Chinese vocational schools graduate tens of thousands of electricians, welders, carpenters, mechanics and plumbers every year, so when someone has an idea for a new product and wants to throw up a factory, it can get built really fast. You need a pink polka dot button that can sing the Chinese national anthem backward? Someone here will have it for you by tomorrow. It will also get delivered fast. Over 550 Chinese cities are connected by high-speed rail that makes our Amtrak Acela look like the Pony Express.
And when you relentlessly digitize and connect everything to everything, you can get in and out of your hotel room fast with just facial recognition. Tech-savvy beggars who carry printouts of QR codes can accept donations fast by the scan of a cellphone. The whole system is set up for speed — including if you challenge the rule of the Communist Party, in which case, you will be arrested fast, given the security cameras everywhere, and disappear fast.
If we don’t build a similar fitness club behind any tariff wall, we’ll get just inflation and stagnation. You cannot tariff your way to prosperity, especially at the dawn of A.I.
I was also in China just four months ago. Between then and now, China’s A.I. innovators demonstrated their ability to grow their own open-source A.I. engine, DeepSeek, with far fewer specialized U.S. chips. I could feel the mojo in the tech community. It was palpable. Last month Premier Li Qiang said at the opening ceremony of the National People’s Congress that the Chinese government is supporting “the extensive application of large-scale A.I. models.”
A young Chinese auto engineer who once worked for Tesla here told me: “Now everyone is competing over how much A.I. is being inserted. Now you brag about how much A.I. you insert. Everyone is committed. ‘I will use A.I., even if I don’t know how right now.’ You are preparing for that, even if you are on a simple production line for manufacturing refrigerators. ‘I have to use A.I., because my boss told me to.’”
Attention, Kmart shoppers: When you already have a manufacturing engine as powerful and digitally connected as China’s and then you infuse it with A.I. at every level, it’s like injecting a stimulant that can optimize and accelerate every aspect of manufacturing, from design to testing to production.
Not a good time for U.S. lawmakers to be shunning visits to China for fear of being called panda huggers.
As Han Shen Lin, an American who works as the China country director for the Asia Group, put it to me over breakfast at Shanghai’s Peace Hotel, “DeepSeek should not have been a surprise.” But, he continued, with all the new U.S. “overseas investment restrictions and disincentives to collaborate, we are now blind to China tech developments. China is defining the tech standards of the future without U.S. input. This will put us at a serious competitive disadvantage in the future.”
For all of China’s strengths, though, it does not want a trade war with the U.S. A lot of middle-class people in China are unhappy right now. For more than a decade, many Chinese put their money into buying apartments instead of putting their savings in banks that paid virtually no interest. This created a huge housing bubble. Many people rode it up and then rode it down when the government tightened real estate lending in 2020.
So they are hoarding their cash because their real estate profits are gone but the government pension and health care payments are meager. Everyone has to save for a rainy day.
As my colleague Keith Bradsher just reported, the economic slowdown is depriving the Beijing government of the very tax revenues it needs to stimulate the economy and subsidize “the export industries that are driving economic growth but could be hurt by tariffs.”
In short, China’s fitness club is awesome, but Beijing still needs a trade deal with Trump that protects its export engine.
We do, too. Trump, though, has become such an unpredictable actor, changing policies by the hour, that Chinese officials seriously wonder if they can get any deal with him that he will stick by.
Michele Gelfand, a Stanford University expert on negotiating, said: “Trump’s defenders argue that his unpredictability keeps opponents off balance. But great negotiators know that trust, not chaos, is what gets lasting results. Trump’s win-lose approach to deal making is a dangerous game.” She added, “If he continues to recklessly treat allies as adversaries and negotiations as battlegrounds, America risks not just bad deals but a world where we have no one left to deal with.”
To my mind, the only win-win deal is one that I’d call: Made in America, by American workers, in partnership with Chinese technology, capital and experts. That is, we just reverse the strategy China used to get wealthy in the 1990s, which was: Made in China, by Chinese workers, with American, European, Korean and Japanese technology, capital and partners.
Here is how Jim McGregor, a business consultant who lived in China for 30 years, explained it to me: Big U.S. multinationals used to go to China and do a joint venture with a Chinese company to get into the Chinese market. Now foreign companies are coming to China and saying to Chinese multinationals: If you want to get into Europe, do a joint venture with me and bring your technology.
We should be combining any tariffs on China with a welcome mat for Chinese companies to enter the U.S. market by licensing their best manufacturing innovations to U.S. firms or by partnering with them and creating advanced manufacturing factories in 50-50 ventures. Chinese joint ventures in the U.S., though, would have to be required to steadily increase the share of parts they source locally, instead of just importing them indefinitely.
This, of course, would require a huge effort to rebuild trust, which is now almost entirely missing in the relationship. It’s the only way to get to reasonably win-win trade. Without it, we’re heading for lose-lose. For instance, on March 19, the Texas Senate gave initial passage to a bill that would bar residents of and organizations based in China, Iran, North Korea and Russia from owning property in Texas. Putting China on that list is just stupid: Hey, let’s ban some of the greatest brainpower in the world instead of laying out incentives and conditions for them to invest in Texas.
When did we get so frightened? And when did we so lose sight of the world in which we’re living? You can denounce globalism all you want, but it won’t change the fact that telecommunications, trade, migration and climate change have fused us, and our fates, together.
I like the way Dov Seidman, the author of the book “How: Why How We Do Anything Means Everything,” describes it. He told me that when it comes to the U.S. and China — and the world at large — “interdependence is no longer our choice. It’s our condition. Our only choice is whether we forge healthy interdependencies, and rise together, or maintain unhealthy interdependencies and fall together.”
But whichever it is, we’re doing it together.
Leaders of both countries used to know that. Eventually, they will relearn it. The only question in my mind is: By the time they do, what will be left of the once unified global economy that produced so much wealth for both nations?
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Thomas L. Friedman is the foreign affairs Opinion columnist. He joined the paper in 1981 and has won three Pulitzer Prizes. He is the author of seven books, including “From Beirut to Jerusalem,” which won the National Book Award. @tomfriedman • Facebook

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