東亞政治與社會的元素
The Adaptability of the Chinese Communist Party
Martin K. Dimitrov
https://youtu.be/4VRdXpUt9mI?si=qqnSJzP3-krdo-oj
為了篇幅和清晰度，回覆已經過編輯。
中國共產黨的適應性
作者 Martin K. Dimitrov 是杜蘭大學政治學教授。
數十年來，一直有人預言中國共產黨即將消亡。 它是如何屹立不倒的？
這並非偶然。 它反映了中共願意從各種國內和世界歷史事件中汲取教訓，這些事件使它接近崩潰的邊緣。 1989 年，中共最接近崩潰的時候，既是因為國內發生的天安門事件，也是因為共產黨在世界各地的失敗。 他們發現了對一黨專政的四種威脅：經濟停滯、社會經濟不滿、西方影響和價值觀，以及政治多元化。 他們擬定了適應措施來對抗這些核心威脅。
中共的生存秘訣是什麼？
中共時刻保持警覺。 它對未來可能出現的情況感到焦慮。 東歐的共產黨產生了一種自滿的情緒。 而自滿是中共從來沒有過的。
中共何時會喪失權力？
它可能還有14年的時間。 如果適應失靈，總會有鎮壓。 但我非常懷疑鎮壓和科技輔助監控機制的長期可行性。
https://www.amazon.com/Adaptability-Chinese-Communist-Elements-Politics/dp/1009517120
感謝 Jessica Meyers、Victoria Guida、Dan Bloom、Emma Cordover 和 Catherine Bouris。
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Cambridge Elements
Elements in Politics and Society in East Asia
The Adaptability of the Chinese Communist Party
Martin K. Dimitrov
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Responses have been edited for length and clarity.
The Book: The Adaptability of the Chinese Communist Party
The Author: Martin K. Dimitrov is a professor of political science at Tulane University
Responses have been edited for length and clarity.
There have been predictions about the CCP’s imminent demise for decades. How does it keep going?
It’s not accidental. It reflects the CCP’s willingness to learn lessons from various domestic and world historic events that have brought it close to the point of collapse. In 1989, the CCP came closest to collapsing both because of what was happening domestically with Tiananmen and also with communist parties failing around the world. They identified four for threats to single party rule —economic stagnation, socioeconomic discontent, Western influence and values and political pluralism. And they drew up adaptive measures to counter these core threats.
What’s the CCP’s secret survival skill?
The CCP is constantly vigilant. It’s anxious about what the future might bring. East European communist parties developed a sense of complacency. And complacency is something that the CCP has never had.
When will the CCP eventually lose power?
It probably still has another 14 years. And if the adaptations malfunction, there’s always repression. But I’m very skeptical about the long-term viability of repression and of technologically assisted surveillance mechanisms.
Thanks to: Jessica Meyers, Victoria Guida, Dan Bloom, Emma Cordover and Catherine Bouris.
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