2024年1月30日上午5:00（美國東部時間）
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史考特紐曼
週一，在北京一個部分運營的恆大商業綜合體，一名男子走過一張中國地圖，上面顯示了恆大在全國各地的商業綜合體。恆大曾是全球最有價值的房地產公司，但週一，香港法院下令將其清算。
格雷格貝克/法新社透過蓋蒂圖片社
由於恆大集團無法重組其欠投資者的 3,000 億美元債務，香港一家法院下令對這家負債累累的中國大型房地產開發商進行清算。
就在六年前，恆大仍處於鼎盛時期，向中高收入的中國人預售公寓。 2018年被列為全球最有價值的房地產公司。但僅僅三年之後，它就陷入了財務困境。恆大嚴重過度負債，且無力完成一些現有項目，已成為中國經濟面臨一些重大短期障礙的象徵：成長放緩、債務增加和勞動力減少。
贊助商資訊
中國房地產危機解析
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中國房地產危機解析
恆大一直在尋求一項 230 億美元的債務重組計劃，但去年該計劃失敗了，因為該公司億萬富翁首席執行官許家印（曾是亞洲首富之一）因未指明的犯罪行為而受到調查。
中國每年將國內生產毛額（GDP）的約20%至30%投資於房地產和基礎設施領域。
儘管恆大的倒閉不太可能對美國消費者產生直接影響，但它再次表明，佔世界 GDP 約 20% 的中國經濟正經歷一段痛苦的放緩期，這可能會導致未來全球經濟成長放緩。
以下是一些需要了解的事項：
恆大破產是件大事，但它不是另一個雷曼兄弟
有些人已將恆大可能破產與 2008 年雷曼兄弟破產相提並論，後者預示著經濟大衰退。 2008年9月15日，金融巨頭雷曼兄弟公司申請破產，負債6,130億美元，引發銀行業危機，使本已衰退的美國經濟進一步陷入混亂。
雷曼兄弟的急劇倒閉很大程度上是由於數百萬高風險抵押貸款支撐著不穩定的金融體系。那些無力償還抵押貸款的購屋者拖欠了貸款，這給華爾街帶來了衝擊波，並使這些借款人面臨喪失抵押品贖回權的風險。
贊助商資訊
但接受 NPR 採訪的專家並不認為全球經濟受到的影響程度如此之大。
自 2020 年中國政府啟動旨在降低房地產市場槓桿率的「三條紅線」計畫以來，恆大就一直在緩慢走向破產。北京意識到該行業過熱，因此對其借貸額度進行了限制。
恆大集團債務問題或將拖累中國經濟
世界
恆大集團債務問題或將拖累中國經濟
蒙大拿大學曼斯菲爾德中心中國事務主任德克斯特·羅伯茨說：“這個辦法很有效。” “恆大是這項政策的最大受害者。”
但羅伯茨表示，與背負 6,130 億美元債務（以 2008 年美元計算）的雷曼兄弟破產相比，「有點誇大其詞」。羅伯茲也是大西洋理事會全球中國中心的高級研究員，也是《中國資本主義的神話：工人、工廠與世界的未來》一書的作者。
他稱該公司的倒閉是「一次可控的內爆」。
「中國早就知道，他們的經濟不平衡，而且過於依賴債務，房地產行業是負債最多的行業，而恆大則是該行業負債最多的典型。”
戰略與國際研究中心中國商業和經濟高級顧問兼受託人主席斯科特肯尼迪也認為，恆大的倒閉對其投資者或世界其他國家來說並不意外。
他表示，恆大的商業模式與中國其他房地產開發商一樣，都是預售房屋——這是一種本質上具有風險的策略。這導致數十萬中國人購買了現在還沒有竣工時間表、甚至可能沒有竣工希望的房屋。
「在某個時候，你可能無法真正完成所有的房屋建設。…最終專案會陷入困境，你的融資狀況也會變得更糟，」肯尼迪說。
許多普通中國人的房地產投資正在蒸發
中國家庭70%甚至更多的資產都集中在公寓上。羅伯茲表示，儘管恆大地產的倒閉早已預料到，但對某些人來說還是一個打擊。
另一家規模較小的中國房地產開發商碧桂園最近也陷入了困境。
「他們非常擔心。他們看到自己的一項重要資產正在貶值，」他說。
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恆大給我們5個關於中國經濟的教訓
「他們擁有自己的公寓，在某些情況下，甚至不只一套，」他說。 “當房地產市場表現像中國一樣糟糕時……消費者就會產生某種負面財富效應，他們不願意消費。”
甘迺迪表示，恆大地產的冗長清算意味著，只想買房的普通投資者和大型機構投資者「將需要排隊，而法院將不得不決定誰將排在隊伍的最前面並獲得賠償」。
這不太可能對美國消費者產生太大的直接影響
亞洲協會中國經濟高級研究員黛安娜·喬伊列娃表示，恆大的國內外投資者將感受到週一香港裁決的最大影響。
贊助商資訊
「這更多的是外部投資者的關注點，」她說。
因此，至少在短期內，美國消費者不太可能受到太大影響。她表示，恆大退出市場可能也需要一段時間，這將進一步減輕其影響。
雖然恆大地產的案件是在香港提起的，因為該公司的股票在香港上市，但喬伊列娃表示，恆大地產的總部所在地廣州“並不是三個相互承認清算令的中國城市之一”，她說。
「因此，清算人可能很難控制恆大在中國大陸的子公司，」她說。清算該公司的過程「將會很漫長」。
恆大顯示對中國經濟的擔憂可能影響深遠
北京方面已經意識到，中國近幾十年來建立的出口導向經濟不可能永遠持續下去，並試圖促進國內消費以彌補部分不足。
然而，甘迺迪表示，恆大地產的倒閉可能會對中國國內外的信心造成打擊。他說：“人們對公司本身、公司陷入的財務問題以及這對房地產行業意味著什麼充滿信心。”
他說：“接下來是人們對中國政府以公正、冷靜、客觀的方式管理這一進程的能力的信心。”
中國結束嚴厲的新冠疫情政策一年後，經濟仍在艱難復甦
中國緩慢擺脫新冠疫情
中國結束嚴厲的新冠疫情政策一年後，經濟仍在艱難復甦
喬伊列娃等人認為，隨著中國經濟未來面臨一系列問題的困擾，未來可能會出現通貨緊縮。 11月份，全國居民消費物價指數跌幅為三年來最快。
她說，中國「應該受到美國的關注，因為首先，中國是一個巨大的經濟體」。 “如果中國國內出現嚴重通貨緊縮，那麼剩下的唯一選擇就是輸出通貨緊縮。”
乍一看，這似乎有利於購買中國製造的商品的消費者。相反，這更有可能意味著美國競爭對手需要降低價格來與大量價格越來越低的中國產品競爭。
贊助商資訊
喬伊列娃說：“這意味著企業倒閉、失業和消費者境況惡化。”
羅伯茲也看到了類似的擔憂。他說，美國和中國“關係密切”，大多數美國頂級跨國公司“很大一部分收入和利潤來自中國市場，或者他們的供應鏈始於中國”。
同時，中國正向製造業注入大量資金，試圖抵銷經濟放緩的影響。
「最終，（中國）將生產大量需要出售的商品，而且他們將以低價出售。所以我認為這可能會成為一股通貨緊縮的力量。”
January 30, 20245:00 AM ET
By
Scott Neuman
At a partially operating Evergrande commercial complex in Beijing on Monday, a man walks past a map of China that shows Evergrande's commercial complexes throughout the country. Evergrande was once listed as the world's most valuable real estate company, but on Monday, a Hong Kong court ordered it to be liquidated.
Greg Baker/AFP via Getty Images
A Hong Kong court has ordered the liquidation of the Evergrande Group, China's giant and massively indebted real estate developer, after the company was unable to restructure the $300 billion it owed investors.
Just six years ago, Evergrande was riding high, preselling apartments to middle- and upper-income Chinese. In 2018, it was listed as the world's most valuable real estate company. But just three years later, it was on the financial ropes. Massively overleveraged and unable to complete some existing projects, Evergrande has become symbolic of a Chinese economy that faces some major near-term obstacles: slowing growth, increasing debt and a shrinking workforce.
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Evergrande had been seeking a $23 billion debt restructuring plan, but that fell apart last year when the company's billionaire CEO, Hui Ka Yan, also known as Xu Jiayin — once one of Asia's richest people — came under investigation for unspecified criminal behavior.
China invests roughly 20% to 30% of gross domestic product annually in the economy's property and infrastructure sectors.
Although Evergrande's demise is unlikely to have an immediate impact on U.S. consumers, it is yet another indicator that China's economy — which makes up about 20% of the world's GDP — is undergoing a painful period of slowdown, and that could result in slower global growth down the road.
Here are some things to know:
Evergrande's collapse is a big deal, but it's not another Lehman Brothers
Some are already comparing Evergrande's likely demise to the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers, which presaged the Great Recession. The financial giant Lehman filed for bankruptcy on Sept. 15, 2008, with $613 billion in debt, triggering a banking meltdown that sent the already recessionary U.S. economy into a tailspin.
The dramatic fall of Lehman was due in large part to millions of risky mortgages propping up an unstable financial system. Homebuyers with mortgage payments they couldn't afford defaulted on their loans, sending shock waves through Wall Street and leaving those borrowers vulnerable to foreclosure.
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But the experts who spoke with NPR don't think the global economy is exposed to that extent.
Evergrande has been on a slow burn to insolvency since at least 2020, when the Chinese government launched a program, known as the "three red lines," aimed at deleveraging the real estate market. Recognizing that this sector was overheated, Beijing placed restrictions on how much it could borrow.
The Evergrande Group's Debt Issues Could Be A Drag On China's Economy
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The Evergrande Group's Debt Issues Could Be A Drag On China's Economy
"It worked," says Dexter Roberts, director of China affairs at the Mansfield Center at the University of Montana. "Evergrande has been the biggest victim of that policy."
But parallels with the collapse of Lehman, which was carrying $613 billion in debt (in 2008 dollars), are "a bit of an overstatement," says Roberts, who is also a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub and the author of The Myth of Chinese Capitalism: The Worker, the Factory, and the Future of the World.
He calls the company's demise "a controlled implosion."
"China has known for a long time that their economy was imbalanced and too reliant on debt, with the real estate sector the most indebted industry of all and Evergrande the poster child for the most indebted company in that sector."
Scott Kennedy, senior adviser and trustee chair in Chinese business and economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, agrees that Evergrande's collapse should come as no surprise to its investors or to the rest of the world.
He says that Evergrande's business model, like that of other real estate developers in China, is pre-sold housing — an inherently risky strategy. It has led hundreds of thousands of Chinese to buy homes that now have no timeline — and perhaps no hope — of ever being completed.
"At some point, you may not be able to actually complete all of that housing. ... Eventually projects get bogged down and your financing situation gets worse," Kennedy says.
Many ordinary Chinese are seeing their real estate investments evaporate
Chinese households have 70% or more of their asset wealth in their apartments. Evergrande's collapse, although long anticipated, comes as a blow to some, says Roberts.
Another smaller Chinese property developer, Country Garden, also recently got in trouble.
"They're very worried. They're seeing their one big asset depreciating," he says.
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"They own their apartment, and in some cases more than one," he says. "When the property market is doing as badly as it's doing in China ... there's sort of a negative wealth effect for consumers and they don't want to spend."
The drawn-out liquidation of Evergrande means ordinary investors who just wanted to buy an apartment and larger institutional investors "are going to need to stand in line, and the courts are going to have to figure out who is going to be at the head of that line and get paid," Kennedy says.
It's unlikely to have much immediate impact on U.S. consumers
Diana Choyleva, a senior fellow on China's economy at the Asia Society, says Evergrande's investors — both foreign and domestic — will see the biggest impact from Monday's ruling in Hong Kong.
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"This is more of an outside investor focus," she says.
So U.S. consumers are unlikely to see much impact, at least in the short term. The time horizon to wind down Evergrande could take a while too, further mitigating its impact, she says.
While the Evergrande case was brought in Hong Kong because that's where the company's shares are listed, Choyleva says that Guangzhou, where Evergrande is based, "is not one of the three Chinese cities that mutually recognize liquidation orders," she says.
"So the liquidator could find it hard to take control of Evergrande subsidiaries in mainland China," she says. The process of liquidating the company "will be protracted."
Evergrande indicates a broader concern about China's economy that may be far-reaching
Beijing has come to recognize that an export-led economy on the scale that China has built in recent decades cannot go on forever, and it has tried to promote more domestic consumption to take up some of the slack.
However, the implosion of Evergrande could prove a blow to confidence both inside and outside China, Kennedy says. "There is the confidence about the company itself and the financial problems that it's gotten into and what that means for the real estate sector," he says.
"The next is what is people's confidence in the Chinese government's ability to manage this process in a fair, dispassionate, objective way," he says.
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Choyleva and others see the potential for deflation ahead as the Chinese economy struggles with a number of issues going forward. In November, consumer prices in China fell at their fastest rate in three years.
China "should be on American's radar because, first of all, China is a huge economy," she says. "If China is having severe deflation at home, pretty much the only choice left would be [for it] to export deflation."
At first glance, that would seem to benefit consumers buying Chinese-made goods. Instead, it's more likely to mean that U.S.-based competitors will need to lower their prices to compete with a flood of ever-cheaper Chinese products.
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"That translates into businesses closing, jobs being lost and consumers being worse off," Choyleva says.
Roberts sees similar concerns. The U.S. and China, he says, "are deeply entwined," and most top U.S. multinationals "secure a significant portion of their revenues and profits from the China market or their supply chains start there."
Meanwhile, China is pumping money into manufacturing to try to offset its slowing economy.
"Ultimately, [China] is going to be producing a lot of goods that they need to sell somewhere, and they're going to be selling them on the cheap. So I would imagine [that] could be a deflationary force."
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