**美國若同時捲入歐洲與中東戰事，將可能讓中國有機可乘，趁機出手台灣。**
作者：Christopher Joye
2025年6月20日 下午4:03
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這是一個地動山搖的時代。伊朗與以色列之間的生死對決，將對歷史走向產生深遠影響。至少，這是一個通往多種地緣戰略路徑的關鍵十字路口。人們當然希望這場衝突能迅速落幕，但風險在於它可能演變為一場漫長的泥沼戰，並引爆更多國與國之間的連鎖衝突。
在部署大量可即刻投入中東的軍力後，美國總統川普突然宣布，可能會對是否攻擊伊朗福爾多（Fordow）與納坦茲（Natanz）核設施的最終決策，延後兩週。這兩處設施是伊朗強化過的鈾濃縮中心，能否抗住以色列的地堡炸彈仍未可知。
川普自詡為「操控高手」。當他宣稱以色列短期內不會攻擊伊朗時，本文作者就察覺事有蹊蹺。畢竟，美國總統不太可能這樣否定以色列的主權軍事行動權。不久後事實也證實，川普只是想當焦點人物，用詹姆斯・龐德式的手法參與以色列的軍事行動，試圖誤導伊朗。雖無法確定他是否成功騙過對方，但在川普作出保證的24小時內，以色列就發射了330枚飛彈攻擊敵人。
如今，這位自詡強硬的領袖正在向全世界發出訊號：伊朗有兩週的時間來達成協議。依過去經驗來看，急躁的川普可能這個週末就會動手。
以色列不太可能等待他人做決策。總理納坦雅胡已清楚表示，伊朗最高領袖哈梅內伊（Ali Khamenei）必須付出最終代價。他的兒子兼接班人穆吉塔巴（Mojtaba Khamenei）據傳也在暗殺名單之上。簡言之，以色列已經進入政權更迭模式。
這不只是摧毀伊朗核武與飛彈能力的行動，更是要連根拔起現任伊朗領導層及其未來接班體系，正如他們對哈瑪斯與真主黨所做的那樣。
常有人說斬首恐怖組織無效，因為很快會有新人補上。但美國對蓋達組織、ISIS 等激進伊斯蘭團體的經驗證明，只要夠狠，世代斬首終會逼迫人們基於自保選擇退出。沒幾個人願意過著壽命以月計的生活。死亡幾近必然，成為吸納新血的強力阻力。
真主黨如今在危機中袖手旁觀，正說明它在以色列多年暗殺行動下的衰敗與挫折。
週五有未經證實的報導稱，以色列已對德黑蘭東北部的拉維贊（Lavizan）區安全設施投下地堡炸彈，據稱哈梅內伊與家人正藏身於此。
毫無疑問，美國與以色列目前擁有一個千載難逢的機會，可以摧毀伊朗的核武計畫、軍力與這個延續數十年的宗教獨裁政權。很難想像納坦雅胡會讓這個機會溜走，不論川普是否提供主動支援。他必將完成他已開啟的戰役——下一步便是打擊福爾多與哈梅內伊。
川普則可能跳上戰車，對戰果宣稱功勞，這對他來說也稀鬆平常。對金融市場而言，若伊朗核野心與政權快速遭清除，應會引發一波風險資產大漲行情。
去除全球最大恐怖主義金主，將讓世界更安全、更可預測。但仍有「左尾風險」令人擔憂。
萬一中國、巴基斯坦與/或俄羅斯因盟友伊朗而捲入與美以之間的真正衝突？這將是毫無疑問的世界大戰前奏。
這些國家是否願為伊朗石油與霍爾木茲海峽的戰略價值賭上自身生計，並不明朗。
另一個重大變數是：若戰事延宕，中國可能乘機攻擊台灣。對習近平而言，這將是一個極具吸引力的時機點，並激勵他進一步支持其經濟與軍事夥伴伊朗。
這也強化了中國對外安全承諾的可信度，與俄羅斯因美國壓力而放棄對伊軍援的態度形成對比。
這會再次強調：世界霸主的繼承者只有一位。已有多則報導指出，中國透過波音747運輸機為伊朗送去重要軍援。過去24小時內也傳出，中國已派出兩艘電子偵察艦進入波斯灣，目的是竊聽美以的軍事通訊。
對中國而言，這是一次珍貴機會，可分析B-2（甚至新型B-21突襲者）轟炸機的雷達特徵。目前美國已向中東部署三個航母戰鬥群，佔總數近三分之一，同時還得支援烏克蘭與以色列。
而中國一直在持續演練對台灣的入侵行動。星象幾近完美，習近平完成統一「頑固附庸國」的目標似乎指日可待。
許多專家認為這是未來幾年內真正可能發生的衝突情境，而這正是本文十多年來一再警告的方向。
目前來看，澳洲政府似乎對履行《澳紐美安全條約》（ANZUS）毫無興趣，若中國與美國因台灣爆發衝突，澳洲恐袖手旁觀。
美國共和黨政府與澳洲工黨政府、及其類似理念的陸克文、吉拉德、滕博爾歷屆內閣之間存在著巨大意識形態鴻溝。
這也是美國懷疑《AUKUS》價值的主因，特別是在考慮是否要將極度稀缺的「維吉尼亞級核潛艦」交給一個可能未來不願協助對抗中國的左傾國家。
事實上，澳洲在經濟、人口、軍事與政治上，已愈發在中美之間搖擺不定。澳洲正逐步從資本主義與自由市場轉向東北亞式的集中計畫經濟，這使它成為一個不穩定的夥伴。
對許多澳洲人而言，這並不壞。他們希望政府主導生活，並對「川普式個人主義」無感，也不願成為美國戰爭的士兵。
但問題是，他們是否還想繼續搭便車享受美國強大安全承諾所帶來的自由？大多數人從未思考這個交換條件。
諷刺的是，若選擇不靠美國，我們就得自力更生。正如戰略學者休・懷特（Hugh White）所指出，這將需要大幅提升國防支出。
若再加上NDIS（全國殘障保險計畫）等政府支出的急遽擴張，最終將迫使國家提高稅收負擔。
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**作者簡介**：
Christopher Joye 是 Coolabah Capital 的投資組合經理，該機構亦投資於本文所提及的證券。你可在 Twitter 上關注他。
America attacking Iran could trigger Taiwan conflict
US involvement in wars in Europe and the Middle East could open the door for China to have a crack at Taiwan.
Christopher Joye
Christopher JoyeColumnist
Jun 20, 2025 – 4.03pm
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These are seismic times. The existential conflict between Iran and Israel will have profound ramifications for the course of history.
It is, at the very least, a crucial crossroads that precedes a dizzying array of potential geo-strategic paths. The hope is, of course, that this is all very quickly resolved.
A wider conflict in the Middle East could be a prospectively enticing opening for President Xi Jinping. David Rowe
The risk is that it becomes a much more protracted quagmire that precipitates a chain reaction of other disputes between nations.
After amassing a formidable arsenal of military resources that are available for deployment in the region, US President Donald Trump has suddenly announced that he might grant a two-week stay of execution before making any final decisions on striking Fordow and Natanz.
These are the two hardened nuclear enrichment sites in Iran that may or may not be impervious to Israel’s own bunker-busting bombs.
The thing is that Trump considers himself a master manipulator. When he declared that there was no “imminent” risk of Israel attacking Iran, this column’s spidey sense started ringing.
It felt odd that the US president would deny Israel its sovereign military rights in this way. We subsequently learnt that Trump was not doing anything of the sort.
He just wanted to be the centre of attention, injecting himself into Israel’s plans, Bond-style, by attempting to mislead the Iranians. Although it is not known whether he did indeed deceive, Israel duly launched 330 missiles at its foe within 24 hours of Trump’s assurances.
Now the self-styled hard-man is signalling to the world that Iran has two weeks to do a deal. If past performance is any guide, the characteristically impatient American president could pull the trigger over the weekend.
Israel is unlikely to wait for anyone to make decisions on its behalf. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been clear in communicating that Iran’s theocrat, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, needs to pay the ultimate price.
His putative successor and son, Mojtaba Khamenei, who is no less ruthless, will also reportedly have to be taken out at the same time. Put bluntly, Israel is now engaged in the regime change business.
It is not just about eradicating Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities. It is about eviscerating the entire incumbent Iranian leadership structure and its future iterations, as they have done with Hamas and Hezbollah.
You often hear the claim that it is futile to cut off the head of a terrorist organisation because it will just be replaced with a new one. Yet the Americans have persuasively demonstrated with militant Islamist groups, like Al-Qaeda and ISIS, that if you are ruthless enough in eliminating generation after generation, human self-interest eventually asserts itself.
There are not many people who are keen on choosing a life expectancy measured in months. Near-certain death has proven to be a powerful disincentive to attracting talent.
Hezbollah’s apparent refusal to offer its patron Iran any help during the current crisis gives you an insight into how enfeebled and discouraged it has become following Israel’s unrelenting assassination campaign.
On Friday, there were numerous unconfirmed reports that Israel was dropping bunker-busting bombs on the secure facilities in the Lavizan district in northeastern Tehran where Khamenei is said to be hiding with his family.
What cannot be doubted is that America and Israel have a unique window to destroy Iran’s nuclear program, its military capabilities, and the multi-decade religious dictatorship that has been implacably focused on delivering death to the “great Satan” and its son.
It is hard to imagine that Netanyahu will allow this opportunity to slip – with or without the active offensive support of the always mercurial Trump. Israel’s prime minister will finish what he started, which means targeting Fordow and Khamenei in the coming days.
And it would not be surprising if Trump jumped on the bandwagon to lay claim to the result, as he is wont to do. For financial markets, a relatively rapid disposal of Iran’s nuclear ambitions and its leadership should, in principle, trigger a resounding risk rally.
Neutering the biggest state sponsor of terrorism will, after all, make the world a safer and more predictable place. There are nonetheless worries regarding those unanticipated left-tail hazards.
What happens if China, Pakistan, and/or Russia somehow get embroiled in a real conflict with America and Israel over their ally Iran? This is unambiguously one dire scenario that could put us on the cusp of a global war.
It is not obvious why any of these countries would want to risk their own livelihoods in this manner, notwithstanding the value of Iran’s oil reserves and its influence over the Strait of Hormuz, which is a strategically significant choke point.
Another adverse contingency would be an elongated campaign that China then exploited by attacking Taiwan. This would be a prospectively enticing opening for President Xi Jinping, which provides greater motivation for him to help his economic and military partner, Iran, however he can.
Doing so also underscores the integrity of China’s security relationships while its frenemy (and sometime rival) Russia sensationally discards its own recently executed military obligations to Iran in the face of pressure from America.
It would reinforce the point that there is only one true heir to US hegemony. There have already been multiple reports of China sending Iran essential military supplies via several Boeing 747 sorties. In the past 24 hours, news has also broken of China moving two electronic surveillance ships into the Persian Gulf, presumably to suck as much intelligence as possible from US and Israeli signals.
This will be a priceless opportunity for China to get better telemetry on the signature of B-2 bombers (and possibly the new B-21 raider) in full flight. The US has deployed no fewer than three aircraft carrier strike groups to the Middle East, which is almost one-third of its total capacity.
It is also distracted by supplying and supporting Ukraine in its war with Russia, to say nothing of its expansive commitments to Israel. All the while, China has been relentlessly rehearsing an invasion of Taiwan. The stars are, therefore, perfectly aligning for Xi to fulfil his aspiration of unifying with the recalcitrant subsidiary state.
Many experts think this is a genuine possibility in the next few years, which is another vector for global conflict that this column has warned about for more than a decade. At this juncture, it does not look like the Australian government has any interest in meeting its ANZUS treaty obligations in the event of hostilities between China and the US over Taiwan.
The ideological divide between the Republican administration, Anthony Albanese’s government, and its similarly inclined Rudd-Gillard-Turnbull predecessors, is vast.
This is the primary reason why the Americans are questioning the value of AUKUS and, more specifically, giving a left-leaning Australia their super-scarce, nuclear-powered Virginia-class submarines that might not then be made available to assist them in a future battle against China.
The truth is that we have become more and more conflicted economically, demographically, militarily and politically vis-à-vis China and America. Australia has drifted away from capitalism and free-market libertarianism towards the centrally planned collectivism of north Asia, which means we are becoming an unreliable partner.
And for many Australians, who want big government to dominate their lives and who do not identify with Trumpian individualism, that might not be a bad thing. They have no desire to serve as soldiers in America’s intellectual and kinetic conflicts.
The question, of course, is whether they want to continue to free-ride off her all-powerful security guarantee, and the liberty and freedom it bequeaths. Most have not considered the trade-off.
Ironically, the alternative means we have to fend for ourselves, which, as the strategist Hugh White once highlighted, would require a huge increase in defence spending.
Combined with the rampant expansion of government services like the NDIS, this will ultimately necessitate a much larger tax take.
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Christopher Joye is a portfolio manager with Coolabah Capital, which invests in securities, including those discussed in his column. Connect with Christopher on Twitter.
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