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https://archive.vn/B2M28
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Taiwan Is Under Siege With or Without Tariffs
The trade war is ratcheting up tensions between Beijing and Washington. Taipei needs to be more prepared.
April 14, 2025 at 8:00 PM UTC
By Karishma Vaswani
Karishma Vaswani is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asia politics with a special focus on China. Previously, she was the BBC's lead Asia presenter and worked for the BBC across Asia and South Asia for two decades.
China can exploit cracks from Trump’s tariffs to pressure Taiwan.
China can exploit cracks from Trump’s tariffs to pressure Taiwan.Photographer: I-Hwa Cheng/Bloomberg
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It makes sense to think that Donald Trump’s trade war is increasing the risk for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan because it adds pressure on Beijing. But the self-ruled island isn’t more vulnerable because of the tariffs. It’s already under siege from the mainland on multiple fronts.
Taipei has long been a geopolitical flashpoint. It now risks losing its hard-won autonomy if it doesn’t confront these threats with greater urgency. That means strengthening military capabilities, passing a long overdue defense budget, and preparing citizens for a possibly prolonged period of mainland aggression. It has already invested in missile defense systems and asymmetric weaponry, and extended the conscription service. But progress on these deterrence measures has been uneven.
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Some analysts have speculated whether Trump’s tariffs will accelerate China’s timeline for unification because Washington is distracted. Beijing has been ramping up military activities. It has sent a surging number of warplanes and coast guard vessels around the island. Strategists have referred to this campaign as an “anaconda strategy,” a way to strangle Taiwan militarily, economically, diplomatically and psychologically, eventually forcing unification without ever having to formally declare war.
Beijing is clearly preparing for confrontation. The People’s Liberation Army is now the world’s largest maritime fighting force and continues to modernize rapidly. Recent video footage of new barges suggests it may have developed the capacity to land tens of thousands of troops and heavy equipment on Taiwan’s shores. Capability doesn’t equal intent, but the images are a reminder of Beijing’s ambitions. Still, most military experts agree the most likely scenario would be a quarantine or a blockade, not a full-scale amphibious assault, which is believed to be beyond the PLA’s reach for now. Taiwanese intelligence says 2027 could be a potential target date for an attack.
As destructive as this defense buildup is, the mainland also is weakening the island from within. In the last year, prosecutions for espionage, particularly among military personnel, have soared in Taiwan. And Beijing is using AI-created disinformation campaigns to divide Taiwanese society as well as targeting undersea communications cables, cutting off digital infrastructure to isolate the island. These operations fit with the idea of “winning without fighting,” as outlined by the ancient philosopher of war Sun Tzu, and favored by President Xi Jinping.
China is likely to exploit Trump’s unpredictability to its advantage, noted Xin Qiang, an academic at Fudan University, on a recent Asia Society podcast before tariffs went into effect. Beijing sees Trump as transactional, which makes him dangerous but also possibly useful, he suggests.
Taiwan’s own politics may also be giving China the upper hand. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party is gridlocked with the opposition Kuomintang party in parliament, delaying critical defense legislation. The uncertain environment and America’s lack of security guarantees could play directly into Xi’s hands, convincing the Taiwanese they may be safer in Beijing’s embrace rather than Washington’s.
The 90-day reprieve from the tariffs on America’s trading partners is a chance for negotiation. President Lai Ching-te is hoping the deal he’s offering Trump will be enough to not just secure trade relief, but guarantees security ties too.
Relying on that alone is dangerous. It’s time for Lai to use his political skills to get opposition parties to come to an agreement, and not allow infighting to derail security planning. In the absence of a consistent American-led effort to deter China, Taipei needs to prioritize self-reliance, and work to pass the defense budget.
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Lessons from countries like Finland and Sweden, which spent decades preparing for the threat of Russian aggression, are instructive. Taiwan is already implementing a whole-of-society resilience approach, including citizen training and civil defense measures. This will help in preparations for a potential attack. In the past, these efforts were downplayed out of fear of spooking citizens. Acknowledging the urgency now is progress, and should continue.
Taipei should also counter Beijing’s AI disinformation campaigns in a coordinated manner, and educate the population. Some of this is already happening, but boosting media literacy campaigns and public awareness programs could help bring home the scale of the threat.
Trump’s transactional diplomacy threatens to isolate the island just when solidarity around its future is urgently needed. Beijing will exploit any cracks. Depending simply on the whims of the administration in the White House for protection means gambling with its own future. Taiwan may be under siege, but it’s not without options to cement its own security.
More From Bloomberg Opinion:
Taiwan Has a Roadmap for Deeper US Trade Ties: Lai Ching-te
The Only Thing Dumber Than a Trade War Would Be a Real One: The Editorial Board
US Defense Is Collateral Damage in the Trade War: James Stavridis
Want more Bloomberg Opinion? OPIN <GO>. Or you can subscribe to our daily newsletter .
This column reflects the personal views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
這篇文章的重點可以歸納為以下幾點：
- 台灣面臨多重威脅：
- 中國正在加強軍事活動，包括派遣戰機和海警船，以及可能發展兩棲登陸能力。
- 中國正在透過間諜活動和人工智慧生成的假訊息，從內部削弱台灣。
- 中國正在對台灣的數位基礎建設，例如海底通訊電纜，發動攻擊。
- 美國的政策不確定性：
- 川普的貿易戰和其不可預測的外交政策，可能被中國利用來對台灣施加壓力。
- 美國缺乏明確的安全保障，使得台灣的處境更加危險。
- 台灣需要加強自衛能力：
- 台灣需要加強軍事能力，通過國防預算，並為公民做好長期應對中國侵略的準備。
- 台灣需要採取「全社會韌性」策略，包括公民培訓和民防措施，並加強媒體識讀教育，以應對中國的假訊息攻擊。
- 台灣內部應當團結，不應當讓內鬥阻礙國防的計劃。
- 台灣不能僅依賴美國的保護：
- 台灣必須優先考慮自力更生，並努力通過國防預算。
- 台灣應當積極與美國進行談判，以期取得貿易的緩解，並同時取得安全上的保障。
mini との会話
請寫出這篇對談播客文章的文字內容的心智圖重點架構與綱要，和1000字的摘要,另外再寫出800字台灣要如何避免成為川普商業外交的交易對象？
歷史學家尼爾·弗格森爵士就川普、關稅和中國進行對話
https://deepcast.fm/episode/a-conversation-with-historian-sir-niall-ferguson-on-trump-tariffs-and-china
好的，這篇文章的重點摘要如下：
心智圖重點架構與綱要
- 川普的貿易政策
- 關稅的影響
- 對中國的立場
- 對全球貿易的影響
- 美中關係
- 貿易戰的本質
- 地緣政治的考量
- 未來發展的趨勢
- 台灣的角色
- 在地緣政治中的位置
- 如何應對美中衝突
- 如何避免成為交易對象
- 全球經濟的影響
- 供應鏈的重組
- 科技產業的發展
- 全球化的未來
1000字摘要
這篇對談播客文章，歷史學家尼爾·弗格森爵士深入探討了川普的貿易政策、美中關係以及台灣在全球地緣政治中的角色。弗格森認為，川普的關稅政策不僅對中國產生影響，也對全球貿易格局帶來了深遠的變化。美中之間的貿易戰，其本質不僅是經濟衝突，更涉及地緣政治的考量。
弗格森強調，台灣在全球地緣政治中處於關鍵位置，必須謹慎應對美中之間的衝突。他警告說，台灣有可能成為川普商業外交的交易對象，因此必須制定明確的戰略，以保護自身利益。在全球經濟方面，弗格森預測，美中貿易戰將導致供應鏈的重組，並對科技產業的發展產生重大影響。
此外，弗格森還討論了全球化的未來，認為美中之間的衝突可能導致全球化進程的逆轉。他建議各國應加強區域合作，以應對全球經濟的不確定性。
總體而言，這篇文章提供了對當前國際形勢的深刻見解，並對台灣的未來提出了重要的警示。
800字：台灣如何避免成為川普商業外交的交易對象？
台灣在全球地緣政治中扮演著極其重要的角色，特別是在美中關係日益緊張的背景下。然而，這也使得台灣面臨成為大國博弈籌碼的風險，特別是在川普奉行「美國優先」的商業外交策略下。為了避免成為交易對象，台灣需要採取一系列策略：
- 強化自身戰略地位：
- 台灣應積極發展關鍵產業，如半導體和高科技產業，以確保其在全球供應鏈中的不可替代性。
- 加強與美國、日本、歐洲等國的經濟和技術合作，形成多元化的戰略夥伴關係。
- 提升自我防衛能力：
- 加強國防建設，提高軍事威懾力，使任何潛在的侵略者都必須考慮高昂的代價。
- 發展不對稱戰力，強化在防禦上的優勢。
- 積極參與國際事務：
- 透過參與國際組織和區域合作，提升台灣的國際能見度和影響力。
- 積極推動與各國的文化和學術交流，增進國際社會對台灣的了解和支持。
- 謹慎應對美國的訴求：
- 在與美國進行貿易和安全對話時，台灣應堅持自身利益，避免做出過度的讓步。
- 透過專業的談判團隊和戰略性的溝通，確保台灣的聲音被充分聽取。
- 強化與周邊國家的連結：
- 與周邊有同樣戰略地位的國家，加強經濟與軍事的合作，以區域性的合作，對抗大國的壓力。
總而言之，台灣必須保持警惕，並採取積極主動的策略，以確保其在全球地緣政治中的地位，並避免成為大國博弈的犧牲品。
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