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探讨 "白日战争"
我即将出版的关于未来台湾战役的小说
米克-瑞安，上午
3月12日
34
3
四月底，我的下一本书将由Casemate出版社出版。该书名为《白日战争》，虚构了一场发生在2028年的台湾战争。故事的叙述者是一位未来的历史学家，从2038年战争开始十周年的时候回首过去。
在这方面，它在结构上类似于普利策奖获奖作品《杀人天使》，该书由迈克尔-沙拉撰写，于1974年出版。在那本书中，沙拉通过双方主要参与者的视角探讨了1863年的盖茨堡战役。杀手天使》一书有力地叙述了19世纪中期更高级别的军事领导和近距离作战的影响，并被列入许多军事机构的阅读清单。
白日战争》也是一个通过参与者的视角讲述的故事。其主要人物包括
一位年轻的美国陆军上尉，他指挥着一支骑兵部队，这是一支由人类和机器人地面作战系统混合组成的新组织部队（人机合一）。
一位在中华民国军队机械化旅总部工作的台湾士兵。
一名美国太空部队的技术中士，其专长是轨道战。
一位指挥中国人民解放军派往台湾的一个海军陆战队旅的中国上校。
美国海军陆战队的一名上校，指挥派往台湾的西太平洋新的海军陆战队滨海团之一。
这些人物从新旧军事组织结构的角度，对现代和近未来的战争提供了不同的观点。
为什么是虚构的？
有些人可能会问，为什么我在2022年2月出版的上一本非虚构书《战争的转变》之后转而写小说。 有几个原因。首先，我想让这些材料尽可能地易于理解。尽管我尽了最大努力，但即使是写得最好的关于战争和竞争的非虚构书籍也包含一定程度的专业术语，有些人觉得难以理解。我发现，小说可以使用更容易理解的语言来研究战争中人类和技术的一些复杂问题。
撰写虚构故事的第二个原因是，它允许在不影响现实世界的战争计划或能力的情况下探索替代的组织和作战方案。尽管民主社会具有开放性，但一些军事技术和未来计划却必然是保密的。小说使我们能够在不受这种安全限制的情况下探索潜在的未来。正如彼得-辛格和奥古斯特-科尔所描述的叙事的应用，他们称之为 "有用的小说"，它可以采用引人入胜和合理的故事情节，向读者介绍新的趋势和问题。
最后，我想发挥我的想象力，关于中国在西太平洋的军事集结的一些影响以及乌克兰战争的影响。 一个机构可以被指责的最糟糕的事情之一是想象力的失败。这样的概念是过去战略失败的基础（9/11委员会报告中明确提到了这一点）。我希望通过发挥我的想象力，在印度-太平洋安全环境中创造一个最坏的结果，它可能会让今天的决策者了解这种冲突的潜在结果。以及为什么阻止这样一场战争是如此重要。
对未来战争的思考
许多军事机构都在为下一场战争进行思考、作战和规划。他们经常会出错。这往往是因为从以前的冲突中吸取了错误的教训。这是因为未来战争的背景或政治目标与从中吸取教训的冲突不同。
在《白日战争》中，我试图运用中国军事战略的知识，习主席关于台湾和中国军事力量建设的讲话，同时掺入正在进行的乌克兰战争中的观察。乌克兰战争中的许多相关经验可能适用于未来的台湾冲突。这些教训包括：
叙述和战略影响行动的重要性。虽然乌克兰表现出了对维持战略叙事的精通，从而获得了大量的外国援助，但中国政府也对其在西太平洋和其他地区的影响力行动进行了投资。
物流和国家工业能力的重要性。乌克兰战争表明，在21世纪，大规模的时代，以及工业体系之间的竞争，已经回到了战争中。很有可能，任何关于台湾的冲突也会对有保障的物流、交战方的生产能力以及将人员、设备和物资运入和运出战区的战略和作战运输系统给予重视。
.
了解到虽然技术是战争的一个重要组成部分，但新技术的应用与新的组织和新的就业概念（战术）相结合，才能确保军事成功的最佳机会。
战争的近乎透明。乌克兰战争最具变革性的影响之一是关于战争的公开来源报道的爆炸性增长，以及它与政府和军事信息的混合，形成了一个虚拟的混合收集-分析-传播的周期。这涉及到政府发布机密情报以阻止俄罗斯的活动，以及黑客和公民记者对信息战的广泛参与。在任何台湾突发事件中都可能出现这种情况，尽管中国几乎肯定会想尽办法否认战争的透明度。
乌克兰和台湾都是年轻的民主国家，被大型的、技术先进的、不关心人权和自由的独裁政权所掠夺。在这一点上，保卫乌克兰和保卫台湾的目的有很大的相似性。
最后，乌克兰的战争再次表明领导力是多么重要。虽然乌克兰总统泽伦斯基是最好的例子，但支持乌克兰的国家的战场领导力、联盟领导力和国家领导力也已经凸显出来了。这几乎可以肯定会在台湾的战争中发挥重要作用。
尽管这些来自乌克兰的观察以及它们对台湾的意义，乌克兰和台湾之间有许多不同之处，我在整个《白日战争》中都清楚地说明了这些不同：
首先，地理上的差异是明显的。台湾不仅规模较小，在地理上与中国隔绝，而且与那些可能在战争中为其提供支持的国家相比，也远在乌克兰之外。这将对任何冲突产生重大影响，特别是在早期。
白日战争，以及任何台湾突发事件，将有更重要的空中和海上（包括水下）组成部分。虽然乌克兰战争的空军和海军方面并非不重要，但与陆地战役相比，它们是次要的。台湾和《白日焰火》的故事则不是这样，故事的绝大部分发生在城市沿海地区。
同样，台湾的天基能力和在轨作战的重要性也比乌克兰大得多。尽管星际链接终端提供了非常重要的能力，但台湾（和白日战争的叙事）以太空行动为重。
白日战争，与乌克兰不同，它的特点是有一支多国作战部队参与到台湾的防御中。虽然西方国家向乌克兰提供了数十亿美元的军事和情报援助，但并没有 "靴子落地"。这在 "白日战争 "和任何可能发生的台湾冲突的情况下都是非常不同的。
台湾的未来运动？
未来任何争夺台湾的战争的最大悲剧是，它很可能是人类对另一方的能力和意志力的误判的结果。就像普京误判了乌克兰的团结和决心，以及西方支持乌克兰的兴趣和耐心一样，中共很有可能对台湾或美国的决心做出类似的误判。
西太平洋地区的战争对该地区来说将是灾难性的。除了台湾人民遭受的巨大人力和物力成本，以及所有战斗人员可能遭受的高伤亡之外，它将在太平洋地区引入核战争的幽灵，并肯定会产生一个全球经济冲击，需要多年才能恢复。
一个成功的中国入侵，仍然会造成数万人（可能是数十万人）的生命损失，将重新安排地区和全球政治。中国的入侵如果失败，将对中国如何看待自己造成破坏，并对习主席造成严重后果。所有这些问题都在《白日战争》中得到了探讨。
这部小说远非美化战争，而是旨在证明这种误判的代价有多大，希望能避免台湾战争。
白日战争》将于2023年4月发行，可在Casemate、亚马逊、WH Smith（英国）和Angus and Robertson（澳大利亚）等地预购。
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Paul M Sotkiewicz
3月12日
米克，通过虚构的叙述，对中国可能入侵台湾进行战争游戏，这是一个有趣的方式。让我们希望你的最终目标能够实现，让人们看到
这种严重的误判所带来的人力和经济损失，
不仅仅是决心或力量的误判，
而是对什么是和什么不是真正符合中国国家利益的误判。
你对这样一场战争的全球经济影响做了多少研究？
当然，它们使俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的影响相形见绌。
它将完全颠覆大多数经济活动部门的全球供应链。
美国和欧盟对战略经济部门的支持在多大程度上是可能的台湾战争的前奏？
中国目前的经济问题是否会导致中国专注于国内问题而不是国际竞争？
还是说这是在分散国内观众的注意力，让他们忽视严重的国内经济问题？
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尹明善
3月19日
海峡对岸的入侵企图是超级不可能的。
更有可能的是决斗式的封锁
（中共试图封锁台湾）
以及
美国和盟国试图在马六甲海峡扼杀中国，
中国使用的大部分石油仍然流向那里，
然后是边缘政策
（顺便说一下，
入侵台湾的企图也会导致西方试图扼杀中国）。
但你知道这将导致什么，这意味着即使这种情况也是非常不可能的。
你可能看到的是更多的剑拔弩张和边缘政策。
中国和俄罗斯的政治态势是不同的。
普京总是通过入侵（车臣、格鲁吉亚、顿巴斯、克里米亚、叙利亚）来提高他在俄罗斯的知名度。
中国则是通过提高生活水平来实现的。话说回来，中国的增长在未来几十年会停滞不前。不过，
在21世纪中期与印度发生战争的可能性还是比较大的。
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卢西恩-F-雷米
3月12日
我的随机评论是，这个切入点是否与威廉-吉布森的小说《消失的光芒》有异曲同工之妙，如果是这样，请原谅我与相关性的分岔，也许对我来说，这更像是一种个人趋势的虚构叙事，而不是相关主题。
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Exploring "White Sun War"
My forthcoming novel on a future campaign for Taiwan
Mick Ryan, AM
Mar 12
34
3
At the end of April my next book will be published by Casemate Publishers. Called White Sun War, it is a fictional account of a war over Taiwan that takes place in 2028. The narrator for the story is a future historian, looking back from 2038 on the tenth anniversary of the beginning of the war.
In this respect, it is similar in structure to the Pulitzer Prize winning book, The Killer Angels, which was written by Michael Shaara and published in 1974. In that book, Shaara explores the 1863 Battle of Gettysburg through the lens of key participants on both sides. The Killer Angels is a powerful narrative of higher-level military leadership and the impact of close combat in the mid-nineteenth century and features on the reading lists of many military institutions.
White Sun War is also a story told through the perspectives of its participants. Its key characters include:
A young US Army captain who commands a Cavalry Troop that is newly organised unit with a mix of humans and robotic ground combat systems (human-machine teaming).
A Taiwanese soldier working in the headquarters of a mechanised brigade from the Republic of China Army.
A US Space Force Technical Sergeant whose speciality is orbital warfare.
A Chinese Colonel who commands one of the People’s Liberation Army’s Marine Brigades that is sent to Taiwan.
A Colonel in the US Marine Corps commanding one of the new Marine Littoral Regiments in the Western Pacific that is dispatched to Taiwan.
These characters provide a mix of different viewpoints on modern and near future warfare, from both old and new military organisational constructs.
Why Fiction?
Some may question why I have turned to fiction as the follow to my previous non-fiction book, War Transformed, that was published in February 2022. There are a couple of reasons. First, I wanted to make the material as accessible as possible. Despite my best efforts, even the best written non-fiction books on war and competition contain a certain level of jargon that some find difficult to understand. I find that fiction allows the use more accessible language to examine some of the complexities of humans and technology in war.
A second reason for writing a fictional account is that it allows the exploration of alternate organisations and operational scenarios without compromising real world war plans or capabilities. Despite the open nature of democratic societies, some military technologies and future plans are by necessity kept secret. Fiction allows us to explore potential futures free from this security constraint. As Peter Singer and August Cole have described the application of narrative, which they call Useful Fiction, it can employ engaging and plausible storylines to introduce readers to novel trends and problems.
And finally, I wanted to use my imagination about some of the impacts of the Chinese military build-up in the western Pacific and the impacts of the war in Ukraine. One the worst things that an institution can be accused of is to have a failure of imagination. Such a concept has been the foundation of strategic failure in the past (it was explicitly mentioned in the 9/11 Commission Report). I hope that by using my imagination, and creating a worst case outcome in the Indo-Pacific security environment, it might inform today’s decision makers about the potential outcomes of such a conflict. And why it is so important to deter such a war.
Thinking About Future War
Many military institutions engage in thinking about, wargaming and planning for the next war. They often get it wrong. Often this is because the wrong lessons are taken from previous conflicts. This is because the context or political objectives of future warfare diverge from those of the conflict from which lessons were taken.
In White Sun War, I have attempted to apply knowledge of Chinese military strategy, speeches by President Xi about Taiwan and China’s build-up of military forces while mixing in observations from the ongoing war in Ukraine. There are many relevant lessons from the war in Ukraine that might apply to conflict over Taiwan in the future. These include:
The importance of narratives and strategic influence operations. While Ukraine has demonstrated a mastery of maintaining a strategic narrative that has resulted in significant foreign assistance, the Chinese government has also invested in its influence operations in the Western Pacific and beyond.
The importance of logistics and national industrial capacity. The war in Ukraine has demonstrated that the era of mass, and the competition between industrial systems, has returned to war in the 21st century. It is very likely that any conflict over Taiwan will also place a premium on assured logistics, the productive capacity of the belligerents as well as the strategic and operational transportation systems to move people, equipment and supplies into and out of theatre.
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Understanding that while technology is a vital part of war, it is the application of new technologies in conjunction with new organisations and new concepts of employment (tactics) that will ensure the best chance of military success.
The near transparency of war. One of the most transformative impacts of the war in Ukraine has been the explosion in open-source reporting on the war, and its meshing with government and military information to form a virtual meshed collection-analysis-dissemination cycle. This has involved governments releasing classified intelligence to pre-empt Russian activities as well as the widespread participation in information warfare by hacktivists and citizen journalists. This is likely to be the case in any Taiwan contingency, although China is almost certain to want to do everything it can to deny transparency of the war.
Both Ukraine and Taiwan are young democracies being preyed upon by large, technologically sophisticated authoritarian regimes who care little for human rights and freedoms. In this respect, there is great similarity in purpose in defending Ukraine and defending Taiwan.
Finally, the war in Ukraine has again demonstrated how importance leadership is. While Ukrainian President Zelensky is the best example, battlefield leadership, alliance leadership and national leadership from nations supporting Ukraine has also come to the fore. This is almost certain to play a major role in a war over Taiwan.
Despite these observations from Ukraine and their relevance for Taiwan, there are many differences between Ukraine and Taiwan which I make clear throughout White Sun War:
First, geography is the obvious difference. Not only is Taiwan smaller and geographically isolated from China, but it is much further away from nations that might be able to provide support to it during a war than is Ukraine. This would have a significant bearing on any conflict, particularly in the early days.
White Sun War, and any Taiwan contingency, will have a much more significant air and naval (including under water) components. While the air and naval aspects of the war in Ukraine are not insignificant, they are minor compared to the land campaign. This is not the case for Taiwan or for the story in White Sun War, which sees the vast majority of the story taking place in the urban littoral.
Likewise, the importance of space-based capabilities and on-orbit operations in Taiwan is vastly greater than in Ukraine. Notwithstanding the very important capability provided by StarLink terminals, Taiwan (and the White Sun War narrative) feature space operations heavily.
White Sun War, unlike Ukraine, features a multi-national combat force that is involved in the defence of Taiwan. While Western nations have provided billions in military and intelligence assistance to Ukraine, there is no ‘boots on the ground’. This is very different in White Sun War, and any likely scenario where there is a conflict over Taiwan.
A Future Campaign for Taiwan?
The great tragedy of any future war for Taiwan is that it is likely to be the result of a human miscalculation about the other side’s capabilities and willpower. Just as Putin miscalculated Ukrainian unity and resolve, as well as the interest and patience of the west in supporting Ukraine, it is very possible the Chinese Communist Party could make a similar miscalculation about the resolve of Taiwan or America.
A war in the western Pacific would be catastrophic for the region. Beyond the massive human and material costs suffered by the people of Taiwan, and the high causalities likely to be suffered by all combatants, it would introduce the spectre of nuclear war in the Pacific and would certainly produce a global economic shock that would take years to recover from.
A successful Chinese invasion, which would still cost tens of thousands (and probably hundreds of thousands) of lives would reorder regional and global politics. A failed Chinese invasion would be devastating for how China sees itself and would have severe consequences for President Xi. All of these issues are explored throughout White Sun War.
Far from glorifying war, the novel aims to demonstrate just how high the costs of such miscalculation might be in the hope that war over Taiwan can be avoided.
White Sun War will be released in April 2023 and is available for pre-order at Casemate, Amazon, WH Smith (UK), and Angus and Robertson (Australia) among others.
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Exploring "White Sun War"
MICK RYAN, AM
MAR 12
34
3
My forthcoming novel on a future campaign for Taiwan
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Paul M Sotkiewicz
Mar 12
Mick, an interesting way to war game a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan thru fictional narrative. Let’s hope your ultimate goal is achieved to bring to light the human and economic toll of such a gross miscalculation not just of resolve or strength, but the miscalculation of what is and is not truly in China’s national interest.
How much do you go into the global economic impacts of such a war? Surely they dwarf those of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It would totally upend global supply chains across most sectors of economic activity. How much of US and EU on shoring of strategic economic sectors is prelude to a possible war over Taiwan? Will China’s current economic problems will cause China to concentrate on domestic issues over international rivalry? Or is this a distraction to the domestic audience so they ignore the serious internal economic problems?
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Richard
Mar 19
An attempted invasion across the Strait is super unlikely. More likely are dueling blockades (the CCP attempting to blockade Taiwan) and the US and allies attempting to strangle China at the Malacca Strait, where the majority of the oil China uses still flows followed by brinksmanship (BTW, an attempted invasion of Taiwan would also lead to an attempted strangulation of China by the West).
But you see where that leads, which means even that scenario is very unlikely.
What you will likely see are more saber-rattling and brinksmanship.
The political dynamics in China and Russia are different. Putin has always raised his popularity in Russia by invading (Chechnya, Georgia, the Donbas, Crimea, Syria).
China has done so by raising living standards. Then again, growth in China will stagnate in the coming decades. Still, a war with India in mid-21st century is more likely.
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Lucien F Remy
Mar 12
My random comment would be, that is this tangent vaguely akin to William Gibson’s novel “Vanishing Light “ maybe that is way off the charts random and if so, please excuse my bifurcation from relevance , perhaps it’s more about a personally trending fictional narrative for me rather than the relevant subject matter.
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